No wonder our farm system is in a Shambles

[Milkman delivers]

So we all agree that Ozzie needs to go?

[southsider2k5]

If I didnt think you had an ax to grind, I would ask for one

 

you don't what to know what Oney thinks?

[Balta1701]

Most of them outside of 2007 and possibly last season, due to Ozzie's hairbrained decision.

I think in 2007 we still thought we had a very talented team. I can recall a thread here asking if our bullpen could be historically good because of the number of power arms in it (Jenks, Thornton, Masset, Aardsma, McDougal coming off a very good year, someone I'm forgetting).

 

I think the only year we sorta said that other teams were clearly more talented than us was 2008, because we were coming off that awful 07 campaignn.

[southsider2k5]

Talent doesnt always mean production though. Would you say that the Sox have had the most productive teams in the past 5 years or so? I would easily say no.

 

Talent= GM's job (Is it too late to switch from the Ninja to the Assassin for Kenny? I like that better)

Production=Manager's job

[iamshack]

See I view it as a lack of talent too, we always seem to be a player or two short of really being a complete team, and the draft/deep farm system would help with that (D Wise, Kotsay, etc) without putting the team at risk of losing millions of dollars from big contracts.

 

To me, it's all intangled, there is an impact in the players you have at the major league level from your prospects, whether it be what FA's you go after, extensions, or your ability to trade for/away players. So not being able to trade away expensive players or prospects for relief/help because your farm system is lacking is part of the lack execution.

Well, I agree that a weak farm system limits the moves available to the big league club. In an ideal world, you'd like to have a strong farm system, and a high payroll, and be able to do whatever you possibly can because of a tremendous level of resources, both personnel and finance-based.

 

Ultimately, I feel like we have made additions when we needed to and have given this coaching staff more than enough talent to win this division at a much higher rate, and they just haven't been able to squeeze the results out of that talent.

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

Another easy copout.

 

Stop making damned excuses for this team and expect them to actually make smart, future driven decisions.

 

It's not a copout, it's a true statement. The team is obviously losing money this year, so that probably limits their draft budget as compared to other teams. If they choose to spend even less than their draft budget allows, then yes, that's a whole different issue.

[iamshack]

Talent= GM's job (Is it too late to switch from the Ninja to the Assassin for Kenny? I like that better)

Production=Manager's job

The Sniper

 

The Reckless Assassin

Edited August 18, 2011 by iamshack

[Marty34]

Talent doesnt always mean production though. Would you say that the Sox have had the most productive teams in the past 5 years or so? I would easily say no.

 

Exactly. With the seasons we've gotten from Dunn, Peavy, and Rios we should not be anywhere near first. A trademark of Hollywood's teams going back to the Jerry Manuel days seems to be as you call it a lack of productivity from key personel

 

[iamshack]

Exactly. With the seasons we've gotten from Dunn, Peavy, and Rios we should not be anywhere near first. A trademark of Hollywood's teams going back to the Jerry Manuel days seems to be as you call it a lack of productivity from key personel

And in an ideal world, we could supplant that lack of production with components of a good farm system, or from acquisitions made using pieces of a good farm system.

 

Unfortunately, we only have so many financial resources available.

 

Obviously, some of you would prefer a lower payroll with a higher percentage of assets being committed to player development.

 

With the huge attrition rates of prospects in this game, I honestly prefer our current model, which is weighted much more heavily towards committing to known assets.

Edited August 18, 2011 by iamshack

[Marty34]

With the huge attrition rates of prospects in this game, I honestly prefer our current model, which is weighted much more heavily towards committing to known assets.

 

I agree. What the Sox do well is find low risk talent. It's too bad that our payroll level has increased substantially over the last 5-6 years and we are seeing less and less production from the expensive guys.

[fathom]

I agree. What the Sox do well is find low risk talent. It's too bad that our payroll level has increased substantially over the last 5-6 years and we are seeing less and less production from the expensive guys.

 

I agree with Shack in that if you can trade unproven prospects for proven big league players, that's a good business strategy. The issue has been that KW and company have completely whiffed on these proven guys for quite a while now (Javy, Swisher, Pena, etc).

[DirtySox]

Handy dandy chart showing slot sums of the first ten rounds and slot spent for each team. Results are unsurprising.

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/...-vs-slots-2011/

[iamshack]

I agree with Shack in that if you can trade unproven prospects for proven big league players, that's a good business strategy. The issue has been that KW and company have completely whiffed on these proven guys for quite a while now (Javy, Swisher, Pena, etc).

Javy was not a net loss for us in any way, IMO. Although he struggled down the stretch in 08', I don't think his acquisition was a bust, especially now that we are seeing what kind of player(s) Lillibridge and Flowers may turn out to be.

 

Swisher, IMO, was ruined by our coaching staff. You are not going to convince me that Swish is not a productive player. Ozzie and Walker just failed to find a fit for him, and then keep him out of a rut when he struggled to fit into that role.

 

KW's biggest failures are obviously Peavy and Rios. He was simply too aggressive on both accounts, and that will most likely harm our chances to compete from the present and possibly as far out as 4-5 years. However, given the state of our division, I still think it's possible for us to win division championships during that timeframe. We just won't have an optimally built team due to payroll constraints (because of Rios and Peavy's salaries).

[LittleHurt05]

With the huge attrition rates of prospects in this game, I honestly prefer our current model, which is weighted much more heavily towards committing to known assets.

 

I agree with this. How many of these draft picks are even gonna sniff the major leagues, let alone be productive?

[elrockinMT]

Why pay big bonuses to draftees anyway? How many actually blossom to grade A major league players? I would like to see the return versus the investment break down. I wonder what kind of bonus Mark Buerhle got? The quick promotion of our young talent like Beckham and Sale might be tied to the bonus money. My thought is maybe they get rushed too quickly and don't have a chance to learn the trade at the minor league level. Takes longer to learn at the big league level and that's why they struggle. Not to say they won't be real good casue I think they will but it just takes longer and we get mad when they struggle.

[Balta1701]

I agree with this. How many of these draft picks are even gonna sniff the major leagues, let alone be productive?

I don't remember if I read this or looked myself, but if you go to the top 10 Baseball America prospects every year, and pretty much ask "Which of them put up 5 WAR or more over their careers" you wind up with about a 40-50% bust rate in the top 10 prospects.

 

That means to me that the top 5 picks in the draft probably have a higher than 50% bust rate (with some Strasburg like notable exceptions). By the time you're at the back of the first round, it's gotta be lower than 20%.

[Marty34]

Swisher, IMO, was ruined by our coaching staff. You are not going to convince me that Swish is not a productive player. Ozzie and Walker just failed to find a fit for him, and then keep him out of a rut when he struggled to fit into that role.

 

Maybe acquiring him with the idea he could play CF everyday messed him up too.

[iamshack]

Maybe acquiring him with the idea he could play CF everyday messed him up too.

I think it had more to do with putting him in the leadoff spot, at least according to what Swisher has said publicly.

[Marty34]

Swisher played 70 games for the Sox in CF and was bad defensively. (He's played 1 game there since he was traded.) If he wasn't going to play CF I don't think they'd have ever traded for him.

[bigruss]

Talent= GM's job (Is it too late to switch from the Ninja to the Assassin for Kenny? I like that better)

Production=Manager's job

Not always, getting the right players into place is up to the GM, and having talented but unproductive players on the team is sometimes an impossible situation for a manager. There are a ton of talented but unproductive players in the past few years that would bounce from team to team because the GM would always think they've got a home run out of nothing coming in, only to ship them out in a few months.

 

Though I do agree that most of the production of the players will/should fall upon the manager, I just think that the GM has to identify players that will succeed in the environment that they place them into (like Grienke probably wouldn't be a smart acquisition for NYY).

[bigruss]

Well, I agree that a weak farm system limits the moves available to the big league club. In an ideal world, you'd like to have a strong farm system, and a high payroll, and be able to do whatever you possibly can because of a tremendous level of resources, both personnel and finance-based.

 

Ultimately, I feel like we have made additions when we needed to and have given this coaching staff more than enough talent to win this division at a much higher rate, and they just haven't been able to squeeze the results out of that talent.

Well I think the Sox have opened way too many seasons with more than a few holes that should've had more young depth or pieces to trade to fill those holes.

 

It's not a copout, it's a true statement. The team is obviously losing money this year, so that probably limits their draft budget as compared to other teams. If they choose to spend even less than their draft budget allows, then yes, that's a whole different issue.

It's a copout because the team should have a dedicated amount to spend on the draft, their MLB payroll should not impact this part. In fact, it should be the other way, they make so and so amount of money each year and have so and so expenses (including the draft and development), then whatever is leftover is what they should be pulling the payroll from.

 

I agree with this. How many of these draft picks are even gonna sniff the major leagues, let alone be productive?

That's not the point, prospects are not only there to become productive major leaguers, but they are there as trade chips, they are a resource you can trade for young, talented, cost controlled MLB players. So in essence, you are drafting and spending on a young player so you can raise his value to buy something you really want.

 

You raise a young calf to up it's value, sell it at a higher point and go buy other supplies that you need more with that money.

[bigruss]

I agree with Shack in that if you can trade unproven prospects for proven big league players, that's a good business strategy. The issue has been that KW and company have completely whiffed on these proven guys for quite a while now (Javy, Swisher, Pena, etc).

I have no problem trading for younger guys (25-28) that are mroe proven MLB players with some cost control to them. Those types of acquisitions can still sustain a consistent winner, a balanced budget, and is less risky.

[Balta1701]

I have no problem trading for younger guys (25-28) that are mroe proven MLB players with some cost control to them. Those types of acquisitions can still sustain a consistent winner, a balanced budget, and is less risky.

The cost for trading for that type of player is enormous and they can still be risky. See: Ubaldo Jiminez.

[bigruss]

The cost for trading for that type of player is enormous and they can still be risky. See: Ubaldo Jiminez.

It's a situation by situation basis, personally I wouldn't have touched Ubaldo for the asking price the Rockies had, not with the year he has had.

[Marty34]

The Sox aren't in terrible shape when it comes to cheap talent. Sale, Santos, Stewart, Addison Reed, De Aza, Viciedo, Flowers, and Beckham all could play significant roles on a very good team, imo. The Sox are just hamstrung by bad contracts.