No wonder our farm system is in a Shambles

[LittleHurt05]

It's a copout because the team should have a dedicated amount to spend on the draft, their MLB payroll should not impact this part. In fact, it should be the other way, they make so and so amount of money each year and have so and so expenses (including the draft and development), then whatever is leftover is what they should be pulling the payroll from.

 

If you have a good team that may be one piece away from a playoff run, you can't add that player to the payroll cause it would affect your draft budget? Forget making the playoffs, we may able to draft that one guy who 3 years from now has a 50/50 chance of playing for the Sox. No thanks to that logic.

[Soxfest]

Does that include what Guillen and Walker have been "stealing" from the team this year?

I hope so because that number is crazy low!

[LittleHurt05]

I don't remember if I read this or looked myself, but if you go to the top 10 Baseball America prospects every year, and pretty much ask "Which of them put up 5 WAR or more over their careers" you wind up with about a 40-50% bust rate in the top 10 prospects.

 

That means to me that the top 5 picks in the draft probably have a higher than 50% bust rate (with some Strasburg like notable exceptions). By the time you're at the back of the first round, it's gotta be lower than 20%.

 

So in the lower first round of the draft, 80% of the players picked put up at least 5 WAR in their career? That seems higher than I would expect, and it would be even higher if you didn't include the White Sox' busts.

[Balta1701]

So in the lower first round of the draft, 80% of the players picked put up at least 5 WAR in their career? That seems higher than I would expect, and it would be even higher if you didn't include the White Sox' busts.

It might be even lower than that, I'm doing this one from memory. Might be even less than 10% at the end of the first round.

[oldsox]

We didn't have a first round pick, so that cuts out a few million, but that doesn't excuse the rest of the draft. In fact, it should mean that they would spend more money on the tough signs, especially with how bare the system is, getting as many live bodies as we can down there should've been the biggest priority, even if it meant spending a little bit more.

But we spent $14,000,000 on Dunn in 2011.

[shakes]

And in an ideal world, we could supplant that lack of production with components of a good farm system, or from acquisitions made using pieces of a good farm system.

 

Unfortunately, we only have so many financial resources available.

 

Obviously, some of you would prefer a lower payroll with a higher percentage of assets being committed to player development.

 

With the huge attrition rates of prospects in this game, I honestly prefer our current model, which is weighted much more heavily towards committing to known assets.

 

I have to agree, the draft is such a difficult science, it doesn't really bother me that the Sox don't spend a ton. Yes, I wish they spent more, especially on international signings, but dollars spent doesn't always correlate to successful minor league systems.

 

The Sox really need to focus on development of the young talent they do have.

 

They are really good at scouting players that are a little more developed. They have done a great job targeting players that they see a good future in, once they have a couple of years in the minors. Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Lillibridge, Deaza, and hopefully Flowers and Stewart, although too early to tell on those guys. Up until recently, they have had a good track record of noticing guys in their own system that have limitations and maximizing their value like McCarthy, Poreda, Brandon Allen(I know Pena sucks but he will likely have a more successful pro career than Allen), Clayton Richards, Carter, and others I'm forgetting. And the Sale and Beckham draft picks were their highest in a long time and both are successful picks. Beckham has some big adjustments to make, but a lot of that to me was because he was rushed, and hasn't adjusted well to failure(reminds me a lot of Rick Porcello).

 

They have been burned a bit lately, but I think it has had way more to do with KW's impatience and stubbornness. I still don't think the Edwin Jackson deal was as horrible as many make it out to be, but the Swisher trades were the big losses. His impatience has also has precipitated the terrible, but defensible, signing of Dunn. Viciedo easily could have been a DH, but both the manager and GM are infatuated with having the big lefty bat, and KW won the pissing contest after the Kotsay debacle. I think the Rios claim was also a very poorly thought out overreaction, although there has been a lot of conjecture on how much they really wanted to keep him.

 

They do make up for their failures in different areas. Santos and Humber have been great finds, along with a bunch of other no name or washed up pitchers over the years. I think Coop deserves a lot of credit for that. The Cuban signings have also done really well. Too bad that couldn't translate into other international markets.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The Sniper

 

The Reckless Assassin

 

I like "The Sniper" too.

[southsider2k5]

Exactly. With the seasons we've gotten from Dunn, Peavy, and Rios we should not be anywhere near first. A trademark of Hollywood's teams going back to the Jerry Manuel days seems to be as you call it a lack of productivity from key personel

 

Guillen's guys really have underpreformed...

[kitekrazy]

I agree with this. How many of these draft picks are even gonna sniff the major leagues, let alone be productive?

 

They need better scouts and instruction. Some of the former prospects like Anderson and Fields are so bad they are almost out of organized baseball. You really can't afford to be missing like that too much.

 

Than fans' most prized prospect happens to be more suited to play DH. Something is wrong with this picture.

 

You have to wonder if these weaknesses are caused by putting friends and family in positions they are not qualified. The problem may be the chairman himself.

 

[bigruss]

If you have a good team that may be one piece away from a playoff run, you can't add that player to the payroll cause it would affect your draft budget? Forget making the playoffs, we may able to draft that one guy who 3 years from now has a 50/50 chance of playing for the Sox. No thanks to that logic.

These expenses should be in place before the team should even be in that scenario.

 

Really, a team should be spending about 90% of their maximum payroll, giving a small number to upgrade at the deadline or sign a player here or there for injuries. And honestly, what signing bonus would the Sox have to pay that would kill our chances to go after a guy? You'd be talking top 5 or so draft picks at that point, and the Sox haven't been selecting there.

 

But we spent $14,000,000 on Dunn in 2011.

Market value, c'mon. It's very simple, it required that much to sign him away from other teams. He was one of the top FA out there and was, on paper, a great fit for the team while also being known as a good clubhouse guy. Unfortunately, he's been miserable. I won't ever fault KW for that move.

[chisoxt]

.....(I know Pena sucks but he will likely have a more successful pro career than Allen), ......

Wanna bet?

 

 

[iamshack]

I have to agree, the draft is such a difficult science, it doesn't really bother me that the Sox don't spend a ton. Yes, I wish they spent more, especially on international signings, but dollars spent doesn't always correlate to successful minor league systems.

 

The Sox really need to focus on development of the young talent they do have.

 

They are really good at scouting players that are a little more developed. They have done a great job targeting players that they see a good future in, once they have a couple of years in the minors. Danks, Floyd, Quentin, Lillibridge, Deaza, and hopefully Flowers and Stewart, although too early to tell on those guys. Up until recently, they have had a good track record of noticing guys in their own system that have limitations and maximizing their value like McCarthy, Poreda, Brandon Allen(I know Pena sucks but he will likely have a more successful pro career than Allen), Clayton Richards, Carter, and others I'm forgetting. And the Sale and Beckham draft picks were their highest in a long time and both are successful picks. Beckham has some big adjustments to make, but a lot of that to me was because he was rushed, and hasn't adjusted well to failure(reminds me a lot of Rick Porcello).

 

They have been burned a bit lately, but I think it has had way more to do with KW's impatience and stubbornness. I still don't think the Edwin Jackson deal was as horrible as many make it out to be, but the Swisher trades were the big losses. His impatience has also has precipitated the terrible, but defensible, signing of Dunn. Viciedo easily could have been a DH, but both the manager and GM are infatuated with having the big lefty bat, and KW won the pissing contest after the Kotsay debacle. I think the Rios claim was also a very poorly thought out overreaction, although there has been a lot of conjecture on how much they really wanted to keep him.

 

They do make up for their failures in different areas. Santos and Humber have been great finds, along with a bunch of other no name or washed up pitchers over the years. I think Coop deserves a lot of credit for that. The Cuban signings have also done really well. Too bad that couldn't translate into other international markets.

Great post.

[shakes]

Wanna bet?

 

I get what you are saying, my point is I don't think Brandon Allen will have a big league career. To be determined.