Eminor3rd Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/l...k-of-precedent/ Lillibridge! A Lack of Precedent by Matt Klaassen - August 22, 2011 Brent Lillibridge hit his 11th home run of the season during the White Sox 10-0 old-fashioned whoopin’ of the Rangers yesterday. It was just another highlight in a shocking power outburst for the utility infielder, who looked like a marginal major leaguer coming into the season. Lillibridge started off the season hot, cooled down in June and July, and is having his best month yet so far in August. Lillibridge is only 27 — not terribly young, but not old, either. Could this be another lasting power surge (.245 ISO with a .370 wOBA) out of nowhere in the vein of Ben Zobrist or Jose Bautista? Lillibridge only has 186 plate appearances so far in 2011, which says a bit about how confident the White Sox are (not) in his abilities to keep this up. More importantly, it’s (wait for it…) a really small sample size. Frankly, I usually don’t bother taking a player’s single season overall hitting performance seriously until at least 240 plate appearances, and even then it’s not too meaningful. Some specific hitting abilities stabilize earlier than that, but home run rate doesn’t seem to be one of them. However, these power surges are fun to check out, especially when it’s a guy like Lillibridge, who never hit for power at any level above low-A. Using the right denominator to isolate home runs on plays ending in contact [hr/(AB-K+SF)], Lillibridge stacks up pretty well. His rate is .099. If he qualified, that would tie him with Mark Reynolds, behind only JOse Bautista (.112), Curtis Granderson (.103), and Mike Stanton (.102). It would place him ahead of hitters like Mark Teixeira (.087) and Prince Fielder (.074), to pick out two notable names. So, to fulfill my own prophecy about posts that warn about sample size then proceed to ignore it, let’s pursue this a bit further with a historical approach. I decided to look at recent players who had a home run-on-contact rate similar to Lillibridge’s in limited playing time. Originally, I thought this would bring up a number of part-timers who then receded into the background, thus showing that performances like Lillibridge’s 2011 “happen all the time.” But that is not exactly what happened. The query searched all hitter-seasons since 2001 with between 180 and 280 plate appearances (limited playing time). It was also limited to players between 25 and 29 years old during those seasons (to cut down on hot prospects being called-up, since that wouldn’t make for a good comparison to Lillibridge; I wanted guys in his general age group). I set the minimum homer-on-contact rate at .09. The query returned eight player-seasons. It is a curious group. The highest HR/FB from the group of part-timers was Mike Napoli in 2008 (.123), who has mainly been a part-timer because of defensive problems at catcher. He had hit for power before, though, so that isn’t a good comp for Lillibridge’s 2011. Russell Branyan‘s 2004 (.120) and 2005 (.098) aren’t good comparisons, either, as he always hit for power, teams either wouldn’t give him a chance or he got hurt. Troy Glaus‘s 2004 is also on the list, but mainly because his plate appearances were limited by injury (shocking, I know). Erubiel Durazo had part-time seasons with a similar home run rate to Lillibridge in 2001 (.094) and 2002 (.097), but he was a first baseman who was blocked in Arizona, until Billy Beane finally attained his short-armed Holy Grail (I heard he’s going to be played by a T-Rex in the Moneyball movie). The only player somewhat similar to Lillibridge that made my list was Jeff Liefer (remember him? Me neither) in 2001. He was a left-handed hitting first baseman/outfielder, but he did sort of come out of nowhere serious power (.264 ISO) in part-time play for the… wait for it… White Sox. He then proceeded to bomb in 224 plate appearance for Chicago the following season and last saw the majors in 2005. That’s the closest thing to a comparison to Lillibridge. It doesn’t bode well, but it is far from the greatest comparison for Lillibridge. If anything, it just backs up the “sample size” issue. I cast my net somewhat narrowly, but I thought it would turn up more than Leifer as “power hitter out of nowhere” part-timer. Honestly, I’m not sure if this lack of decent comparisons means good or bad things for Lillibridge’s future. The ZiPS rest-of-season projection isn’t too keen on Lillibridge. His Hit Tracker data doesn’t show him squeeking too many just over the wall, but he isn’t hitting them exceptionally far, either. His walk and strikeout rates don’t indicate that he has the sort of plate discipline that might have allowed Zobrist and Bautista to succeed with power swings. Most likely, this is a small sample blip. But it stands out enough that Lillibridge will quite probably (and justifiably) get more chances to prove whether or not he’s a fluke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think it's pretty easy to understand Lilly's power surge. He STILL has a home run mentality in a skinny lil body. He is trying to pop home runs every time he bats and to his credit, he does have a home run swing. Unlike Dunn, he connects once in a while and with that big bat and uppercut swing ... home run. Darndest thing I've ever seen, a skinny guy like that with a better home run stroke than a big guy like Dunn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The title of this thread reminds me of a Caulfield style post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:32 PM) The title of this thread reminds me of a Caulfield style post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:23 PM) I think it's pretty easy to understand Lilly's power surge. He STILL has a home run mentality in a skinny lil body. He is trying to pop home runs every time he bats and to his credit, he does have a home run swing. Unlike Dunn, he connects once in a while and with that big bat and uppercut swing ... home run. Darndest thing I've ever seen, a skinny guy like that with a better home run stroke than a big guy like Dunn. I wouldn't say he's trying to hit a HR every at bat. I think he's trying to hit the ball hard, and that's a different Lillibridge than we've seen before. His swing is faster, and I would agree that he does have a bit of an uppercut swing. Dunn's swing seems so slow to me. Of course when you're as big as he is you don't have to rely as much on bat speed. However, making contact with the ball is important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Remember Jeff Leifer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:32 PM) The title of this thread reminds me of a Caulfield style post. Then I would make it "Lillibridge Performing Like A Rock Star (Party Like It's LilliBOMB's Birthday)" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 04:04 PM) Remember Jeff Leifer? He really seemed like one of the biggest pricks I've ever met to wear a White Sox uniform. Everyone says the same about Rauch, but he was really cool to the fans at 2001 Spring Training. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjshoe04 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 04:04 PM) Remember Jeff Leifer? I remember him hitting a LONG home run in Baltimore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitewashed in '05 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I remember Jeff Liefer! Link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Followed with a typical greg post, bringing up Dunn out of nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 QUOTE (Whitewashed in '05 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 06:33 PM) I remember Jeff Liefer! Link Damnnnn@some of the names from that article. Doug Mientkiewicz? Ricardo Rincon? Terry Mulholland? Ray King? Geoff Jenkins? Javy Lopez? Sighhhhh! J4L is getting old as f***. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 01:23 PM) I think it's pretty easy to understand Lilly's power surge. He STILL has a home run mentality in a skinny lil body. He is trying to pop home runs every time he bats and to his credit, he does have a home run swing. Unlike Dunn, he connects once in a while and with that big bat and uppercut swing ... home run. Darndest thing I've ever seen, a skinny guy like that with a better home run stroke than a big guy like Dunn. I think you under estimate Lilibridge's size. He's a solid guy,very strong. He's 5'11" 185 lbs. Hank Aaron was listed at 6' 180 lbs. Very Similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 05:04 PM) Remember Jeff Leifer? Yes makes me shutter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 (edited) I remember Hawk talking him up that he was gonna be a big power threat is he got 500 AB's haha Edited August 23, 2011 by Cali Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Liefer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I remember Jeff Liefer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I remember the bomb he hit off Roger Clemens in Yankee Stadium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (Jeff Liefer @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:05 PM) I remember Jeff Liefer... Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Liefer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:09 PM) Wow That's right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (Jeff Liefer @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 10:05 PM) I remember Jeff Liefer... :lolhitting :lolhitting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice of the author to pay attention to the spelling of Liefer's name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitewashed in '05 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Jeff Liefer @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 09:10 PM) That's right. Okay... after this happened and going back and reading this thread from the beginning... I think this should be nominated for thread of the year... Edited August 23, 2011 by Whitewashed in '05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 (edited) Maybe he was thinking of LEIF Garrett instead? It would be yet more fun if someone started a "I remember Katie Upton or Mrs. Teahen" one and they posted a response. Or Mark Teahen's dogs. Or Oney. Edited August 23, 2011 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 07:48 PM) I think you under estimate Lilibridge's size. He's a solid guy,very strong. He's 5'11" 185 lbs. Hank Aaron was listed at 6' 180 lbs. Very Similar. That was also 40-50 years ago when Aaron was considered big, and Lilli is considered an elf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2011 -> 03:32 PM) The title of this thread reminds me of a Caulfield style post. The title of this thread makes me want to self-mutilate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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