Who starts for Sox in '12

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/08/25/11/Arms-Ra...tm_medium=email

 

Arms Race: Who starts for White Sox in 2012?

 

Thursday, Aug. 25, 2011

Posted: 10:01 p.m.

 

Brett Ballantini

By Brett Ballantini

CSNChicago.com White Sox Insider

 

In the shapeshifting world of baseball, it's not the least bit curious to be embroiled in a pennant race on your throwing hand, while looking ahead to next season with your glove hand.

 

So with that in mind, and with a tip of the cap to mission control's Jeremy Lynn for the idea, let's take a look ahead at the 2012 Chicago White Sox pitching rotation.

 

You might remember that a year ago, the ballyhooed Chisox starters bore the brunt of blame for the slow start that buried the club early. Yes, the rotation came around and carried the club into the dog days, but that was too little, too late, and already sans Jake Peavy, lost for the season to injury.

 

This year has been different. The rotation has fulfilled its promise, as virtually none of the 7 games the White Sox sit behind the Detroit Tigers after this week's minisweep at the Los Angeles Angels need to be shouldered by the starters. As a collective unit of now seven arms, the rotation has brought the most value to the club.

 

So, dealing from strength and with upwards of eight arms vying for rotation spots in Arizona next March, how is the 2012 rotation sizing up? Here's the early line:

 

Rotation Locks

 

Peavy: The Bulldog is the one starter who is untradeable, sadly not because of his season long performance but due to his salary, which will jump to $17 million in 2012.

 

Peavy still shows flashes of being the ace the club traded for in 2009, and it's far from a pipe dream to expect the right-hander to come back much stronger in 2012 than has been at any point in 2011. Now, $17 mil for a lower-rotation starter with, say, a low-4.00s ERA isn't the best bargain in the world--although to be fair, FanGraphs pegs Peavy's current season value as $10 million--and beyond that, Peavy still has an ace's mentality and is the one Chicago starter you'd most want to hand the ball to in a must-win game.

 

John Danks: Talk of Danks leaving the White Sox is grossly overplayed. GM Ken Williams knows he has a gem in the young left-hander. I've said it a million times, but Danks has no desire to leave the White Sox. While he will need to be paid fairly--let's say a Mark Buehrle contract (four years, $14 million per)--his comfort with the organization and prospect of playing in the majors with his brother Jordan manning center field behind him, means he is a strong bet to stick with the club beyond his final arbitration year of 2012.

Gavin Floyd: For some strange reason, Floyd is most commonly bandied about as trade bait, most recently during the brouhaha surrounding a supposed waiver claim this week by the Chicago Cubs. That makes zero sense.

 

Floyd might not have quite as bright a future as Danks, who he has been almost constantly intertwined with during his White Sox tenure, but he is currently a massive bargain for the White Sox--paid just $5 million and providing the team a value of $11.4 million at the moment. Next year, Floyd's salary escalates to $7 million, and in 2012 and 2013 Floyd will make $16 million combined--an amount that the right-hander may provide with his 2011 season alone.

 

Rotation Likelihood

 

Buehrle: OK, the veteran lefty does seem like an odd man out in a rotation that is fairly stocked, with newcomers like Chris Sale and Zach Stewart eager to step in. But Buehrle, even with a four-year, $56 million deal over the past four years, has provided significantly more value than he's cost in salary--to the tune of some $10 million over the course of the contract.

 

While big-contract busts like Adam Dunn and Alex Rios will put the screws to Ken Williams when it comes to re-upping Buehrle, it might end up having the opposite effect; as disappointing as 2011 is almost certain to be in the franchise annals, the big-salary commitments paid in 2011 carry over to 2012 as well, in every case but Buehrle's, and to a lesser extent, Juan Pierre.

 

Indeed, All-In for 2011 is unlikely to switch on the fly to All-Out for 2012. That bodes well for at least a temporary return for Buehrle--think perhaps a $15 million deal for 2012 and perhaps $10 or $12 million for 2013, as the White Sox legend still mulls over how long he'd like to play.

 

The Battle for No. 5

 

The top four spots possibly staying the same means that it could be a scrum for the No. 5 spot come Cactus League, with one among Sale, Stewart, Phil Humber and Hector Santiago.

Opponents are only hitting .201 off Chris Sale since his promotion to the big leagues in August, 2010. Sale also has 90 strikeouts in 81 innings so far in his career. (US PRESSWIRE)

 

The least likely No. 5 for 2012 is Humber, whose breakout season will likely mean a significant contract offer from other clubs for next season. With the Sox having such a massive investment made in the rotation already, chipping in even $3 million for another year of Humber--bargain though that would likely be--is cost prohibitive.

 

Santiago is another long shot. He opened eyes during a short stint with the big club at midsummer, but with just one year of starting under his belt and barely holding an ERA under 4.00 at Double-A Birmingham, Santiago's time hasn't yet come.

 

Another hurler who has impressed the White Sox with a no-fear approach to pitching is Stewart, who challenges hitters and puts manager Ozzie Guillen's credo--just throw strikes--to great practice. Stewart is the early favorite for 2012's fifth starter.

 

That's because Sale, destined for the rotation though he may be, is killing it as a left-handed setup man and sometime closer. He teams with Sergio Santos for a lefty-righty pair of young guns that is the envy of the American League.

 

Matt Thornton is struggling through 2011 and due for a raise to $5.5 million next year, the first season of a three-year, $17 million extension. The veteran left-hander is even more likely to depart the White Sox than the free-agent Buehrle.

 

Putting the band back together for 2012 on the front end of the pitching staff means that compromises will need to be made in the pen. In spite of the stop-start closer situation, with Thornton falling short in the role, the team's bullpen is exactly how Williams dreamed it would be--six deep, parsed evenly between righties and lefties.

 

If Thornton is moved this winter--and very likely, even if he is not--Sale's best fit for 2012 is in the bullpen. In 2013, when only Floyd could remain among the core four, makes more sense for a shift to the starting rotation for Sale.

 

Best best for the 2012 rotation: Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, Stewart

 

2012 rotation options

 

"The Kids Can Play" rotation: Peavy, Danks, Stewart, Sale, Humber

 

Lefties "All-In" rotation: Buehrle, Danks, Sale, Santiago, Peavy

 

Budget Be Damned/2011 Redeux rotation: Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, Edwin Jackson

 

Peavy to Pen rotation: Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, Humber, Stewart

[Balta1701]

The least likely No. 5 for 2012 is Humber, whose breakout season will likely mean a significant contract offer from other clubs for next season. With the Sox having such a massive investment made in the rotation already, chipping in even $3 million for another year of Humber--bargain though that would likely be--is cost prohibitive.

WTF?

[Steve9347]

WTF?

I'd rather the White Sox not be a part of paying Humber anything remotely substantial.

[Milkman delivers]

I thought the Sox had control of Humber for a few years if they wanted? If he's just going to walk after resurrecting his career/potential here, I say pitch him until his arm falls off. Save the guys who WILL be with us next season.

[southsider2k5]

I thought the Sox had control of Humber for a few years if they wanted? If he's just going to walk after resurrecting his career/potential here, I say pitch him until his arm falls off. Save the guys who WILL be with us next season.

 

I messaged Ballatini a few minutes ago to get that clarified because I though the same thing.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I thought the Sox had control of Humber for a few years if they wanted? If he's just going to walk after resurrecting his career/potential here, I say pitch him until his arm falls off. Save the guys who WILL be with us next season.

 

This is what I was thinking. He only had a year or so of service time coming into this season. They shouldn't have to pay him s*** for a while.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I'm no expert, but I agree with you guys on Humber. I don't even think he's arbitration eligible yet.

Edited August 26, 2011 by lasttriptotulsa

[Harry Chappas]

How does Edwin Jackson get back in the mix in the one scenario?

 

I like Sale and Santos closing games next year with Thorton and Crain in the pen as well. Ohman and a rookie fill that part out nicely.

 

MB

Peavy

Danks

Floyd

Humber/Stewart

 

If a team wows you with a trade for Danks or Floyd, you move them.

[southsider2k5]

How does Edwin Jackson get back in the mix in the one scenario?

 

I like Sale and Santos closing games next year with Thorton and Crain in the pen as well. Ohman and a rookie fill that part out nicely.

 

MB

Peavy

Danks

Floyd

Humber/Stewart

 

If a team wows you with a trade for Danks or Floyd, you move them.

 

Free agent signing apparently.

[Rowand44]

If I had my way, our rotation would be:

 

Buehrle

Floyd

Peavy

Sale

Stewart

 

Trade Humber and Danks. Obviously I'd love to ship out Jake somehow but that's not happening so he's still there.

[NorthSideSox72]

I personally would rather trade Danks, re-sign M56 fpr 2-3 years, and have a rotation that looks like:

 

Buehrle

Floyd

Peavy

Humber

Sale/Stewart

 

Let Pierre and Castro go free, trade TCQ as well. Use the TCQ and Danks trade(s) to get a big time upgrade for LF. Viciedo in right will probably approach Quentin's value. Possibly also pick up a young gun to compete with either Beckham or Morel, if you can.

 

One of the veteran pitchers in the bullpen should go too, one of Frasor/Crain/Ohman/Thornton, if not two of them. The Sox don't have much depth in the minors, but they do have a few relievers that I think could be quite solid for cheap (Reed chief among them, but also Infante, Santiago who I think ends up a reliever again, Remenowsky).

 

Why trade Danks? Other than his high value and the fact that a long term deal will cost a fortune, I also have always thought he looked like he was at the edge of his endurance out there, muscle and joint-wise. He seems to hit a point each season where he has a bad month or so, where he just looks exhausted. I have a fear he may be an arm injury in waiting. Call me crazy.

 

Do all that (trade Danks, CQ, a vet reliever) and allow Pierre and Castro to go, and you just banked some money. Get an upgrade at LF, and even better if he is cheap too. Suddenly, the 2012 team looks like an improvement, if at least one of Rios or Dunn can get back to form (and they aren't tradeable for any practical purpose).

 

I even thought about trying to trade AJP, but you won't get much for him, so maybe Flowers can learn at the major league level how to handle pitcher by watching AJ for a year.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Also, I think the discussions about Peavy on this board have been psychotic. Seems most people either thought he'd come back and be JFP, or would never come back to form and was basically done.

 

Seemed obvious to me that what happened is what should have been expected. Like any pitcher after major surgery, first year back is basically just getting your arm back, and pitching mediocre. It is the 2nd season after, when they usually get their form back.

 

Look for Peavy to be back to, or nearly, the JFP we traded for, in 2012. And yes you can quote me on that.

 

[Milkman delivers]

Also, I think the discussions about Peavy on this board have been psychotic. Seems most people either thought he'd come back and be JFP, or would never come back to form and was basically done.

 

Seemed obvious to me that what happened is what should have been expected. Like any pitcher after major surgery, first year back is basically just getting your arm back, and pitching mediocre. It is the 2nd season after, when they usually get their form back.

 

Look for Peavy to be back to, or nearly, the JFP we traded for, in 2012. And yes you can quote me on that.

 

I'll be waiting for that the same way I'm waiting for the Sox to make that comeback everyone's been talking about all season.

[Rowand44]

I'll be waiting for that the same way I'm waiting for the Sox to make that comeback everyone's been talking about all season.

Pretty much. The guy has had so many injuries the last 3 years, I have no clue how anyone can expect him to ever be back to the guy that we thought we traded for.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'll be waiting for that the same way I'm waiting for the Sox to make that comeback everyone's been talking about all season.

Despite my saying the Sox aren't out of it, a few days ago when they were 5 back with 5+ weeks to play... history was still against them, they had maybe a 10% chance. Now they are 7 back with less than 5 weeks to play, so now we're probably 5% or less.

 

Pitchers having major reconstructive surgeries, this is a pattern that has repeated itself many times. Is it a guarantee? No. But I feel one heck of a lot more confident in Peavy getting back close to form, than I do the Sox winning the division.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Pretty much. The guy has had so many injuries the last 3 years, I have no clue how anyone can expect him to ever be back to the guy that we thought we traded for.

So many? A broken ankle and the one, big, huge lat one. Ankles heal fine, the only real issue here is the big one. History says a lot of pitchers come back from major reconstructions.

 

However, it is true that Peavy's injury was unique, so that is the big X factor.

 

[southsider2k5]

Despite my saying the Sox aren't out of it, a few days ago when they were 5 back with 5+ weeks to play... history was still against them, they had maybe a 10% chance. Now they are 7 back with less than 5 weeks to play, so now we're probably 5% or less.

 

Pitchers having major reconstructive surgeries, this is a pattern that has repeated itself many times. Is it a guarantee? No. But I feel one heck of a lot more confident in Peavy getting back close to form, than I do the Sox winning the division.

 

Which is why pushing his innings and pitch counts is so important this year. If we really believe we are done, we need to be pushing him and Humber to as many innings as possible if they are going to be with us next year.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Also, I think the discussions about Peavy on this board have been psychotic. Seems most people either thought he'd come back and be JFP, or would never come back to form and was basically done.

 

Seemed obvious to me that what happened is what should have been expected. Like any pitcher after major surgery, first year back is basically just getting your arm back, and pitching mediocre. It is the 2nd season after, when they usually get their form back.

 

Look for Peavy to be back to, or nearly, the JFP we traded for, in 2012. And yes you can quote me on that.

 

 

Couldn't be more right though

[RockRaines]

LIke it or not Stewart is going to be in the rotation moving forward. The org looks at him as a Jon Garland-type guy.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

LIke it or not Stewart is going to be in the rotation moving forward. The org looks at him as a Jon Garland-type guy.

 

I don't think that is a bad thing. He obviously wasn't great last time but it's evident he has talent. If he can turn into Jon Garland for cheap that would be fine.

[Milkman delivers]

Despite my saying the Sox aren't out of it, a few days ago when they were 5 back with 5+ weeks to play... history was still against them, they had maybe a 10% chance. Now they are 7 back with less than 5 weeks to play, so now we're probably 5% or less.

 

Pitchers having major reconstructive surgeries, this is a pattern that has repeated itself many times. Is it a guarantee? No. But I feel one heck of a lot more confident in Peavy getting back close to form, than I do the Sox winning the division.

 

I can definitely agree with your last sentiment.

[Rowand44]

So many? A broken ankle and the one, big, huge lat one. Ankles heal fine, the only real issue here is the big one. History says a lot of pitchers come back from major reconstructions.

 

However, it is true that Peavy's injury was unique, so that is the big X factor.

And whatever the hell was wrong with him when we traded for him.

 

LIke it or not Stewart is going to be in the rotation moving forward. The org looks at him as a Jon Garland-type guy.

He's got better stuff than Garland but I think everyone would be happy if he turns out to be like Jon.

[elrockinMT]

Pitching is the name of the game. I hope we keep Danks and Buerhle both

 

Buerhle

Floyd

Danks

Peavy

(Humber?)

 

Stewart hasn't show me a lot yet but Humber is not doing what he did before. I just don't think we can afford to be taking risks with our staff. The four top pitchers are proven

[Rowand44]

Pitching is the name of the game. I hope we keep Danks and Buerhle both

 

Buerhle

Floyd

Danks

Peavy

(Humber?)

 

Stewart hasn't show me a lot yet but Humber is not doing what he did before. I just don't think we can afford to be taking risks with our staff. The four top pitchers are proven

You hate change, don't you?

[Milkman delivers]

You hate change, don't you?

 

Couldn't be any more obvious. Doesn't seem to understand player values either, judging by posts in other threads.