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Looking ahead to the 2012 roster


Fantl916

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Seems like a good time to begin some discussion on this. I know there have been a few threads discussing specific items such as Quentin being traded, re-signing Mark, what to do with Rios/Dunn, etc. Manager/GM decisions aside, let's talk about what we want/think/hope will happen before spring opening day 2012 and what the key items might be. looking forward always seems to help getting over looking back :)

 

I'll lead off with my thoughts/predictions:

 

1. Buehrle is re-signed. I think they'll give him the contract that allows him to finish his career in a sox uni. we won't be increasing salary here as he already is paid quite well

2. Sale stays in the bullpen. The emergence of Humber and prospects of Stewart give us a rotation back-end that's not bad at all. Sale stays in the bullpen and becomes the primary set-up guy for Santos.

3. Quentin is traded. Almost a foregone conclusion at this point, but salary needs to be shed somewhere and this is the most reasonable place with Dayan to step in. Probably traded for minor league arms, no ML ready talent

4. Danks doesn't sign long term nor is he traded. Just a gut feeling, but with Boras as his agent i dont foresee him signing long-term unless he goes Weaver on Boras and tells him to get a deal done.

5. Floyd is traded as the centerpiece to obtain a good young LF/CF/3b. I have no basis for this other than that we have 6 SPs with Floyd, his contract provides the best value to another team and it wouldn't be a bad thing for us. Some names could include Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, etc.

 

Rotation: Mark, Danks, Peavs, Humber, Stewart

Bullpen: Crain, Frasor, Reed, Sale, Santos, Ohman, a long man

Lineup: CF De Aza, SS Alexei, 1b Paulie, RF Dayan, DH Done (hopefully slimmer and rejuvenated), C AJP, 2b Gordo, 3b Morel/young guy, LF Rios/young guy - if young guy is good then hit him 6th or 7th

Bench: Flowers, Lillibadass, INF defender/Vizquel, 1 more

 

all in fun

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QUOTE (Brian @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 01:05 PM)
I don't like using a top ten pick on a set up guy. I want Sale starting next year.

 

My question for those who want Sale to start is who's sits/is traded?

 

You can definitely pencil Peavy and Humber into the rotation. I would also say it's safe to say at least 2 of 3 between Danks, MB, Floyd will be in the rotation, if not all three. Then there's also Stewart. For Sale to start (in the majors at least) you'd have to trade Danks, not re-sign MB, and probably go with a 6 man rotation. The other prob with starting Sale is putting him back in the minors potentially for however long until he's ready to rock again if you don't clear that rotation spot. i get the idea, but maybe more of a CJ Wilson approach where you have him throw more innings next year and groom him for a spot a couple years down the road?

 

interesting topic tho

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Way too hard to tell what WILL happen at this point... so here is what I would WANT to happen...

 

Fire Ozzie and basically the entire coaching staff (Except Cooper, who I would strongly suggest the new manager retain)

 

Promote KW to some Team Prez type position, bring Hahn to GM, and let him pick his staff, including #1 input on new manager and coaches

 

Let Pierre, Castro and Pena go

 

If the new manager is OK with it, offer Vizquel a position as a bench coach or base coach, and de facto infield coach

 

Re-sign M56 if at all possible (I will assume in this scenario that it is doable at about 3 years)

 

Keep PK14, Beckham (whose chances I like to improve with the bat), Alexei, Viciedo, Rios (who I think is basically untradeable and may improve with dfferent leadership), Dunn (also untradeable), De Aza, Lillibridge, AJP and Flowers

 

Rotation of M56, Peavy (who I think will be better next year), Floyd, Sale, and one of Humber/Stewart (with the other as the 6th man, and long man in pen)

 

If you can trade Ozzie for Lo Mo, do it. But I will assume not, so...

 

Use Thornton, TCQ, Danks and Morel* as trade bait to get a strong LF (and possibly upgrade 3B if you can, in which case, trade Morel)

 

Try to trade one of the experienced and semi-expensive bullpen arms (Frasor, Crain, Ohman), as part of the LF and 3B upgrades

 

Bullpen of Santos (closer), 2 of Crain/Frasor/Ohman (2 setups), Santiago (left specialist), Reed (MR), Stewart/Humber (long man and 6th starter), and either the remaining Crain/Frasor/Ohman or Infante or some other acquisition as the other MR

 

Bench of Flowers, Lillibridge, Tyler Kuhn and Alejandro De Aza (who would pretty much platoon with the other OF's, making a 4 OF rotation of sorts)

 

...By my math, but trading Thornton, TCQ and Danks, you save about $18M-$20M in 2012 to go towards M56 and the new LF. I figure M56 will get $12M/year for 2-3 years, if I had to guess. If the new LF is a younger guy and not a pricey free agent, that should be plenty of money to cover. And that leaves the team, more or less, at an even salary level with 2011.

 

Not sure if JR will go for that much salary though. Just what I'd hope is all.

 

AND MY QUESTION TO THE BOARD... who are some good OF candidates that might be available in a trade involving some or all of TCQ/Danks/Thornton?

 

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QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 03:34 PM)
My question for those who want Sale to start is who's sits/is traded?

If I were the gm, Humber and Danks(assuming John doesn't sign an extension, if he does switch him and Gavin here) would be traded and Mark would be re-signed.

 

Buehrle

Floyd

Peavy

Stewart

Sale

 

But I am not the gm and that's not going to happen but if I had my way, that's what our rotation would be going into next season.

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I'm still having a hard time with trading Carlos Quentin leading to the Sox being better in 2012. He's one of only two guys who has consistently produced this year. I know that Viciedo is up now, but with Juan Pierre hopefully gone and Morel and Dunn being so bad, there has to be some way to work both into a lineup.

 

I see something more like:

 

DH: Dunn/Quentin platoon

LF: Quentin/Lillibridge platoon

CF: De Aza/Rios platoon

RF: Viciedo

1B: Konerko

2B: Beckham

SS: Ramirez

3B: Morel

C: AJ/Flowers platoon

 

I also have Dunn and Rios on a short leash, especially if De Aza, Lillibridge, or Flowers hit like they did this year. There is enough flexibility to switch any of those platoon players over to full-time, and I have no problem getting Flowers some DH time if he and AJ are both hitting.

 

Starting pitchers:

 

Buehrle/Danks/Peavy/Sale/Humber

 

Bullpen:

 

Santos/Thornton/Crain/Ohman/Frasor/Stewart/???

 

So I'm advocating re-signing Buehrle because, like Quentin I don't see how you improve by letting one of your best players go; also re-signing Frasor, and trading Floyd. I don't know if Floyd can get an upgrade at 3B because I'm not sold that Morel will ever hit. Also need a utility IF younger than me, but I haven't really looked at who is available. Yes, this is a high payroll, but not as high as 2011 and All-in is supposed to be for more than one year, right?

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QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:01 PM)
If he retires I'd love to offer him the job as the bench coach

 

That'd be fine by me.

 

People counting on Peavy next year are making a big mistake, IMO. You'd need to have a capable 6th starter ready for when he inevitably goes down. And to call Quentin a consistent producer seems incorrect, as I'm pretty sure he's been hot and cold this year (and going back a few years).

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QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:15 PM)
Thats a last place team Marty. I would rather keep some of the guys you suggested we trade and just let Buehrle go

 

Depends on the package of players they could get back for the group I want traded. I suspect it would be pretty good.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 03:11 PM)
LF De Aza

SS Lillibridge

1B Konerko

DH Dunn

RF Viciedo

CF Rios

C AJ/Flowers

2B Beckham

3B Morel

 

Rotation: Buehrle, Peavy, Sale, Humber, Stewart

Pen: Reed, Crain, Ohman

 

Deal: Danks, Ramirez, Santos, Floyd, Quentin, and Thornton

 

One of the few correct things Ozzie did this year was identifying that Lillibridge is a much better OF than IF. SS???

 

Good luck with that.

Edited by Stan Bahnsen
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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 03:56 PM)
I'm still having a hard time with trading Carlos Quentin leading to the Sox being better in 2012. He's one of only two guys who has consistently produced this year. I know that Viciedo is up now, but with Juan Pierre hopefully gone and Morel and Dunn being so bad, there has to be some way to work both into a lineup.

 

I see something more like:

 

DH: Dunn/Quentin platoon

LF: Quentin/Lillibridge platoon

CF: De Aza/Rios platoon

RF: Viciedo

1B: Konerko

2B: Beckham

SS: Ramirez

3B: Morel

C: AJ/Flowers platoon

 

I also have Dunn and Rios on a short leash, especially if De Aza, Lillibridge, or Flowers hit like they did this year. There is enough flexibility to switch any of those platoon players over to full-time, and I have no problem getting Flowers some DH time if he and AJ are both hitting.

 

Starting pitchers:

 

Buehrle/Danks/Peavy/Sale/Humber

 

Bullpen:

 

Santos/Thornton/Crain/Ohman/Frasor/Stewart/???

 

So I'm advocating re-signing Buehrle because, like Quentin I don't see how you improve by letting one of your best players go; also re-signing Frasor, and trading Floyd. I don't know if Floyd can get an upgrade at 3B because I'm not sold that Morel will ever hit. Also need a utility IF younger than me, but I haven't really looked at who is available. Yes, this is a high payroll, but not as high as 2011 and All-in is supposed to be for more than one year, right?

 

Pretty sure the salary of that team would be substantially higher than the 2011 roster.

 

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:11 PM)
LF De Aza

SS Lillibridge

1B Konerko

DH Dunn

RF Viciedo

CF Rios

C AJ/Flowers

2B Beckham

3B Morel

 

Rotation: Buehrle, Peavy, Sale, Humber, Stewart

Pen: Reed, Crain, Ohman

 

Deal: Danks, Ramirez, Santos, Floyd, Quentin, and Thornton

Deal them for who/what? Which of those positions are you going to upgrade? Hopefully SS, because Lillibridge would likely be a disaster there.

 

Without whomever you get back in a deal, that is basically the 2011 team except a severe downgrade at SS, a downgrade in the rotation, and a bunch of holes in the bullpen.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:32 PM)
Pretty sure the salary of that team would be substantially higher than the 2011 roster.

 

 

Deal them for who/what? Which of those positions are you going to upgrade? Hopefully SS, because Lillibridge would likely be a disaster there.

 

Without whomever you get back in a deal, that is basically the 2011 team except a severe downgrade at SS, a downgrade in the rotation, and a bunch of holes in the bullpen.

 

Deal them for who or what I do not know. The best package you can get is the easy answer.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:48 PM)
Deal them for who or what I do not know. The best package you can get is the easy answer.

I wasn't necessarily looking for specific player names... more, what positions are you trying to upgrade? Because your team as stated has a bunch of downgrades and no upgrades. Only way that works is if you think Lillibridge can do better overall than Alexei, and if you think the great majority of players will bounce back and improve next year.

 

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Next year is a weird year, you have two option, go all in again with a $125M+ payroll and fill all holes with your arbitration eligible’s or free agents, or make 2012 a transition year where you can get payroll down to around $100M or so and let some youth fill in around the vets under contract, aiming for probably a .500 year.


You have $88M committed before arbitration salaries to Danks, CQ, and Pena, that’s probably another $20M. Then you have a hole in the rotation from Buehrle and in LF from Pierre. If you replace both of those with major league talent you could be looking at another $15M+ in salary. So to build a projected 90+win team on paper for 2012 you need to be ready to spend about the same as this year, $125M.


In my opinion the all in redux move would be a mistake, I don’t like a lot of the moving parts, I don’t like the age of a lot of even the consistent vets, I don’t like having to count on poor mechanics in Rios and Beckham to somehow turnaround, I don’t like the reliance upon Dunn somehow magically being not as bad, and I don’t like relying upon Buehrle and Peavy as my go to vets in the rotation.


I like the idea of reducing payroll, to around $100M, letting Buehrle and Pierre go, trading CQ, trading Danks if a long term deal cannot be reached, and filling all those spots with our youth. Its an obvious transition year, its an obvious .500 team on paper, but I believe its necessary. If you can buy some time in 2012 you have a big window to develop some players, really see what you have in guys like Vicideo, De Aza, Morel, Sale (as a starter), Humber (can he be consistent), Stewart (as a starter). Then in 2013 your window opens up quite a bit because you only have $51M committed as of right now, and Peavy is finally gone.


With this situation your still pretty deep with vets and still going to end up with a $100M payroll, I do not believe some sort of sell everything and go young scheme is possible or realistic within this organization. But I do think another “Kenny rebuild on the fly” year is in the works. I think you could still extend Danks, essentially giving him some of the $$ saved from moving CQ, letting Buehrle go, and Peavy’s deal expiring after 2012. You get to see Viciedo everyday and possibly De Aza too. Flowers gets some more time to be the everyday catcher is Dunn struggles because AJ becomes your DH. If you do or do not extend danks you can still get your 3 youngsters (Sale, Stewart, Humber) a valuable year in the rotation either as a 5 man without Danks, or 6 man with Danks (helps keep Peavy fresh). You probably win around 80 something games and look like Cleveland does this year, up and down, up and down, and in the end 82-80.


Entering 2013 you now build around your young core, knowing exactly who should stay and who should go. You have probably $50M to play with and a large amount of leverage with a group of MLB seasoned youngsters. You look for 2013 to be like the Reds of 2010, the Dbacks of 2011, etc.


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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 05:09 PM)
I wasn't necessarily looking for specific player names... more, what positions are you trying to upgrade? Because your team as stated has a bunch of downgrades and no upgrades. Only way that works is if you think Lillibridge can do better overall than Alexei, and if you think the great majority of players will bounce back and improve next year.

 

Rebuild the pitching staff mostly through those trades. If Beckham, Rios, and Dunn don't hit again next year they aren't winning anything with Danks, Floyd, Ramirez anyway. If they do hit, I believe they'd at least be able to contend while rebuilding their staff. Lillibridge doesn't have to stay at short, but it would be where he would be the most useful.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 6, 2011 -> 04:11 PM)
LF De Aza

SS Lillibridge

1B Konerko

DH Dunn

RF Viciedo

CF Rios

C AJ/Flowers

2B Beckham

3B Morel

 

Rotation: Buehrle, Peavy, Sale, Humber, Stewart

Pen: Reed, Crain, Ohman

 

Deal: Danks, Ramirez, Santos, Floyd, Quentin, and Thornton

 

And with the first pick in the 2013 MLB draft, the White Sox select?????????

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