Transitioning to 2012

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/09/06/11/BBQ-Tim...amp;feedID=7139

 

By Brett Ballantini

CSNChicago.com White Sox Insider

 

With just 23 games remaining and eight games back, manager Ozzie Guillen and GM Ken Williams might not want to admit it, but the Chicago White Sox are playing for second place this September, rather than challenging the first-place Detroit Tigers.

 

But as never is the case, there’s much more to play for than just first runner-up in the AL Central—the Pale Hose have a number of issues to resolve as they point toward a 2012 season where they hope All-In will play like more than a catch phrase.

 

How different will the 2012 White Sox look?

 

Honestly, not much. Going All-In for 2011 largely pulls 2012 along with it, as the White Sox have little salary to shed—Chicago is already committed to an $89 million payroll, and that’s for just 11 players. Letting Mark Buehrle and Juan Pierre leave could push the payroll down a spot from this year’s, but truly, All-In was a two-year commitment.

 

But didn’t owner Jerry Reinsdorf lose a ton of money this year?

 

The White Sox will certainly fall well short of the 2.6-2.8 million fans the Chairman felt he needed to draw to break even on the season, given $128 million payroll, the biggest in White Sox history.

 

But All-In wasn’t just born from Williams’ desire to spend money or Reinsdorf’s to waste it—the owner’s thinking is that with time not getting any shorter, it’s time to commit to a World Series contender more strongly than ever. So you shouldn’t hear much handwringing or poormouthing from the executive suite at U.S. Cellular Field.

 

Who could be dealt, to improve the team, trim payroll, or both?

There’s no deal that will do both; any payroll trim will come at the cost of young talent inserted as a sweetener or in a straight dump by cutting a player, which is ulikely to happen on Reinsdorf’s watch.

 

The closest area of expendability comes in right field, where Carlos Quentin will see a significant raise on his $5.5 million salary in his final year of arbitration. Dayan Viciedo is ready to supplant CQ in right field, but there’s nothing that says the two sluggers couldn’t both occupy corner spots next season.

 

Big-ticket items like Jake Peavy ($17 million), Adam Dunn ($14 million) and Alex Rios ($12.5 million) are untradeable, unless the White Sox want to eat half of any of those contracts or wedge a prime prospect into the deal. And they don’t have enough prime prospects for wedging.

 

Who has the inside track for No. 5?

 

One of the interesting battles shaping up in September involves Phil Humber and Zach Stewart’s fight for the fifth spot in the 2012 rotation. But that presupposes a number of things.

 

One, the White Sox would be smart to re-up Buehrle for whatever contract length he desires. Every season of his recent four-year, $56 million deal he’s given the White Sox more value than he’s been paid in salary.

 

Two, presuming Matt Thornton returns, Chris Sale is ticketed for the starting rotation, destined to flabbergast far more batters with his changeup as a starter than a reliever.

 

But if it came down to Humber battling Stewart, spring training efforts pending, Humber has earned the spot. He was the most dominant starter for the White Sox in the first half of 2010, and while wholly speculative, it wasn’t until the team decided he needed to be skipped in the rotation in July that trouble started brewing—in his first 15 starts, Humber sported an amazing 60.5 game score, while over his last seven, he’s fallen to 43.7.

 

Who closes?

 

The closer’s job is absolutely Sergio Santos’ to lose. Yes, the first-timer has had a few notable flameouts and sports an .848 (28-for-33 save percentage, lower than that of Bobby Jenks’s .871 (27-for-31) in 2010. But Santos has peripherals that put even Jenks, an experienced closer, to shame, including just 8.3 percent of inherited runners scoring (13 percent for Jenks) and 1.80 average leverage (pressure) faced (1.737 for Jenks).

 

And even if Sale doesn’t join the starting rotation, there’s little evidence he should supplant Santos as the team’s closer. The lefty’s save percentage is mere points higher (.857 in just seven chances) and his inherited runners scoring (22.6 percent) and first batter average (.122 for Santos, .292 for Sale) is far superior.

Dayan Viciedo is ready to start every day in 2012, but will he be replacing Carlos Quentinin right field or can the two sluggers occupy both corner outfield spots? (US PRESSWIRE)

 

If anything, Santos has faltered most when inserted in “traditional” closing roles, like starting the ninth. The young fella thrives on high-leverage pitching, where there is less time to think and more to simply erase the hopes of batters. Something for the Chicago brain trust to grow on for 2012.

 

Which kids can play?

 

As the White Sox continue to attempt challenging for a Central crown in 2012 with a mix of veterans and young guns, the second half of the season, and September in particular, has been telling for the White Sox.

 

Tyler Flowers, Alejandro De Aza, and Viciedo all appear to be ready to contribute solidly to Chicago in 2012, if not as starters, as key contributors. Of the young players with the White Sox all season, Brent Morel has leapfrogged Gordon Beckham offensively, but both are slinging leather—something that would have overshadowed their offensive woes had players like Dunn and Rios performed to expectations in 2011.

 

There may not be a fountain of youth on the White Sox, but there’s a trickle, and if all things are equal with the team’s vets, there’s a wave of complimentary players who can aid a pennant push in 2012.

 

Does 2012 promise hope, or horror?

 

As usual, it depends on your perspective. From a sheer talent standpoint, there is tons of room for optimism.

 

But from a shifting-on-the-fly managerial standpoint—and that goes for field managing and general managing alike—there is reason for despondency. Because the same solutions that could be found in 2012—the De Azas, Humbers and Viciedos of the club—were solutions available in 2011 to rescue a lost season, as well.

 

Brett Ballantini is CSNChicago.com’s White Sox Insider. Follow him @CSNChi_Beatnik on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Sox information.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'm glad you posted this. Since hearing various posters say Santos is a mental midget I've been trying to find closer stats and this provides them. We could certainly be worse off than with Santos as closer. His save percentage is the only thing that a top close would be better. The peripherals are outstanding.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

the same solutions that could be found in 2012—the De Azas, Humbers and Viciedos of the club—were solutions available in 2011 to rescue a lost season

 

OUCH.

[Texsox]

The roster is just about set, based on performance and payroll. By the season opener I will have to believe in Balta's mantra, the roster is good enough, we just need a new manager. Pass the koolaid . . .

[elrockinMT]

Hope the Sox keep Quentin. De Aza, Viciedo, Quentin and I guess Rios would be a good OF and have some run production. Viciedo can play the corner spots, 1B and DH (and maybe an occcassional 3B) so he would get playing time.

[jenksycat]

Hope the Sox keep Quentin. De Aza, Viciedo, Quentin and I guess Rios would be a good OF and have some run production. Viciedo can play the corner spots, 1B and DH (and maybe an occcassional 3B) so he would get playing time.

 

He's never playing 3b again.

 

I want Q+Vicedo on the corners.

Give Rios 2 months and if its 2011 Rios, he becomes 5th OF and a pinch runner, De Aza CF.

Give Dunn 2 months, if it's 2011 Dunn, rotate Bridge/Q/Vicedo/PK at DH

[elrockinMT]

He's never playing 3b again.

 

I want Q+Vicedo on the corners.

Give Rios 2 months and if its 2011 Rios, he becomes 5th OF and a pinch runner, De Aza CF.

Give Dunn 2 months, if it's 2011 Dunn, rotate Bridge/Q/Vicedo/PK at DH

 

 

Should never say never IMO. At least it's an option even though it may be rare

[Balta1701]

Hope the Sox keep Quentin. De Aza, Viciedo, Quentin and I guess Rios would be a good OF and have some run production. Viciedo can play the corner spots, 1B and DH (and maybe an occcassional 3B) so he would get playing time.

Dayan Viciedo should not under any circumstances be penciled in as a part time or rotating player next year. He should be written in as the starter in one of the corner OF spots from day 1. And if he struggles, which is always possible for any rookie...people should shut up, stop complaining, and realize that it happens.

[Balta1701]

Should never say never IMO. At least it's an option even though it may be rare

Jermaine Dye played Short Stop for an inning in 2005. That's how common Viciedo at 3b should be.

[Balta1701]

He's never playing 3b again.

 

I want Q+Vicedo on the corners.

Give Rios 2 months and if its 2011 Rios, he becomes 5th OF and a pinch runner, De Aza CF.

Give Dunn 2 months, if it's 2011 Dunn, rotate Bridge/Q/Vicedo/PK at DH

I hate, hate, hate the idea of De Aza not having a shot at starting full time.

[Cali]

De Aza deserves a shot next season for sure. Unless there's some trades in the off-season I want him penciled in leading off... He's been very impressive in his short time this season...

[jenksycat]

I hate, hate, hate the idea of De Aza not having a shot at starting full time.

 

As do I, but you have to try and salvage the 400 million owed to Rios. Extremely short leash, 1-2 months tops if he's not performing at an All-Star level, De Aza is in.

 

And I'd rather have the potential monster corner OF of Q and Vic

[Balta1701]

As do I, but you have to try and salvage the 400 million owed to Rios. Extremely short leash, 1-2 months tops if he's not performing at an All-Star level, De Aza is in.

 

And I'd rather have the potential monster corner OF of Q and Vic

Especially since I'm expecting a salary cut next year, I think Quentin needs moved for whatever the best return possible is. Start me off with De Aza, Rios, Viciedo in the OF, and Rios's short leash leads to the Stealth Elf, who has flat out earned a shot.

[jenksycat]

Especially since I'm expecting a salary cut next year, I think Quentin needs moved for whatever the best return possible is. Start me off with De Aza, Rios, Viciedo in the OF, and Rios's short leash leads to the Stealth Elf, who has flat out earned a shot.

 

Eh, I don't see the return on the oft-injured, last year of arbitration Q bringing in anything of value. And to maximize the value, he'd have to be having a monster year and traded at the deadline anyway, so there's no point unless you want Vic in AAA again.

 

They have to be "all in" on salary again or gut the entire team. I'd rather see them try again with this roster, subbing Vic for Pierre and yanking Dunn/Rios by May 15th for De Aza/Bridge. If they want to cut Rios and use De Aza, then by all means, but since that won't happen I'd want Q/Vic over Aza/Vic.

 

A middle-of-the-order of Q/PK/Dunn/Vic (assuming Dunn isn't the worst player in the history of the sport again) could be incredible.

[pettie4sox]

Eh, I don't see the return on the oft-injured, last year of arbitration Q bringing in anything of value. And to maximize the value, he'd have to be having a monster year and traded at the deadline anyway, so there's no point unless you want Vic in AAA again.

 

They have to be "all in" on salary again or gut the entire team. I'd rather see them try again with this roster, subbing Vic for Pierre and yanking Dunn/Rios by May 15th for De Aza/Bridge. If they want to cut Rios and use De Aza, then by all means, but since that won't happen I'd want Q/Vic over Aza/Vic.

 

A middle-of-the-order of Q/PK/Dunn/Vic (assuming Dunn isn't the worst player in the history of the sport again) could be incredible.

 

DEADLY... thinking about it gives me goosebumps.

[Wanne]

As do I, but you have to try and salvage the 400 million owed to Rios. Extremely short leash, 1-2 months tops if he's not performing at an All-Star level, De Aza is in.

 

And I'd rather have the potential monster corner OF of Q and Vic

 

Rios is the one out of the albatross contracts of Dunn, Rios and Peavy that will be most likely moved IMO (with eating salary). We're just flat out stuck with Dunn and Peavy. But there is no way in hell De Aza shouldn't be starting and leading off next year.

[Balta1701]

The other thing to think about De Aza vs. anyone else is...if not him, who leads off? Look at any of the other roster concepts and tell me that there's anyone who could fill the role of even a quasi-traditional leadoff hitter. Beckham? Quentin? Viciedo? Morel? Alexei? Rios and De Aza wind up being about the only options unless you want to try to move Alexei there.

[jenksycat]

Rios is the one out of the albatross contracts of Dunn, Rios and Peavy that will be most likely moved IMO (with eating salary). We're just flat out stuck with Dunn and Peavy. But there is no way in hell De Aza shouldn't be starting and leading off next year.

 

Not disagreeing with that, I just don't see A.) Anyone taking Rios without us eating 75% B.) Us eating 75%.

 

Dunn is still on the "crazy outlier season" status for me, and I fully believe he bounces back to .250/35/100

 

Peavy has 1 year left, all the more reason to keep the payroll high 1 more time. If it doesn't work, then you have some off the books for 2013 and start the full out rebuild.

 

 

[Wanne]

The other thing to think about De Aza vs. anyone else is...if not him, who leads off?

 

Exactly...

[greg775]

The roster is just about set, based on performance and payroll. By the season opener I will have to believe in Balta's mantra, the roster is good enough, we just need a new manager. Pass the koolaid . . .

 

Geez.

It is so depressing to think we could start April with the same team.

I hate reading about Dunn's assured return to normalcy as much as you guys hate me talking about how great Ozzie is.

That is going to grow so old this winter. Dunn is just going to magically start hitting 30 home runs.

I would rather trade a batch of guys than return with the same team if I had to choose one or the other.

Edited September 7, 2011 by greg775

[Balta1701]

Geez.

It is so depressing to think we could start April with the same team.

That is much more likely if Kenny Williams is gone.

[NorthSideSox72]

The other thing to think about De Aza vs. anyone else is...if not him, who leads off? Look at any of the other roster concepts and tell me that there's anyone who could fill the role of even a quasi-traditional leadoff hitter. Beckham? Quentin? Viciedo? Morel? Alexei? Rios and De Aza wind up being about the only options unless you want to try to move Alexei there.

I hate this argument... who leads off? You don't build a roster looking for a leadoff hitter. You build a roster with the best players you can get for each and every slot, then after that is all set, you make the best lineup possible. Introducing the lineup location earlier in the process is just artificially reducing the potential talent pool to build a team from.

 

[Balta1701]

I hate this argument... who leads off? You don't build a roster looking for a leadoff hitter. You build a roster with the best players you can get for each and every slot, then after that is all set, you make the best lineup possible. Introducing the lineup location earlier in the process is just artificially reducing the potential talent pool to build a team from.

Give it a little bit more thought though.

 

All of our OBP is concentrated in Konerko and Dunn if De Aza isn't around. Maybe some of the other guys can provide some, but there's no one with a big history of it. Alexei, Morel, Viciedo, Quentin, AJ, Beckham...that's a very swing-happy lineup.

 

You may not like the thought of looking for a leadoff hitter, but there's no one there who really sets up the lineup in front of what hopefully should be the boppers. There's no obvious speed threat and no one who you can count on to put up a .340 OBP unless someone hits .330. And if any of them (Beckham, Morel) struggle...then that is a lineup that is weak both at the top and bottom.

[NorthSideSox72]

Give it a little bit more thought though.

 

All of our OBP is concentrated in Konerko and Dunn if De Aza isn't around. Maybe some of the other guys can provide some, but there's no one with a big history of it. Alexei, Morel, Viciedo, Quentin, AJ, Beckham...that's a very swing-happy lineup.

 

You may not like the thought of looking for a leadoff hitter, but there's no one there who really sets up the lineup in front of what hopefully should be the boppers. There's no obvious speed threat and no one who you can count on to put up a .340 OBP unless someone hits .330. And if any of them (Beckham, Morel) struggle...then that is a lineup that is weak both at the top and bottom.

If the lineup as a whole lacks OBP, then go get someone with OBP. If you want more speed, then go get that. But the artificial limitation you are placing just doesn't make sense, IMO.

 

[Balta1701]

If the lineup as a whole lacks OBP, then go get someone with OBP. If you want more speed, then go get that. But the artificial limitation you are placing just doesn't make sense, IMO.

The lineup doesn't lack OBP...that's provided by the boppers. The problem is that it lacks OBP outside of the boppers. That means...it lacks someone who can lead off, unless De Aza can fill that role.