Congratulations on #2000, Pierre

[kjshoe04]

1.) So do I. The announcers I listen to also tend to mention batting average, uh, every time a player steps in the box. No announcers I've heard mention the advanced sabes stuff. Maybe on base percentage once in a while or some put that graphic on the screen.

2.) I agree with that post. The basis of people getting mad at me is my simple statement, which I stand by, saying Juan Pierre is a good baseball player. I think he is.

I also find it so funny that many can't forgive him for getting off to a slow start when other players' slow starts are shrugged off. There are still people on this board who think Rios is a good baseball player.

You keep saying this, yet I have never seen anyone in the last 3 months say Rios is a good player.

[chw42]

Can you tell me where in OPS a player's ability to go from first to third on a single to right field is denoted? Or a player's ability to go home on a double from first? It's an extra base that a high-OPS, slower player doesn't get, yet it's not picked up in that stat. Could you honestly argue that Pierre's intangible speed which earns him an extra base in every running situation against a much slower player is picked up by a stat like OPS?

 

This is exactly why using OPS to measure Juan Pierre's total skill is a totally misguided venture. You don't look at Paul Konerko's stolen bases, and yet you want to measure Juan Pierre's power.

 

There's stats for that...

 

Pierre's been worth +3.7 runs in the running game this season (+6.8 last year, which says he is indeed declining for those who fail to believe it...). They calculate this based on whether or not the player takes an extra base when he can. If he does, he is awarded. If he does not, he is penalized depending on the situation.

 

But even when you put this into context with everything else he has done (offensively and defensively), he is a replacement level player. If you think he hasn't been a negative defender this year (I don't know how you can really say that with a straight face given how bad he was in April), then he's slightly above replacement level.

 

In other words, Juan Pierre is not a good baseball player no matter how you try to bend things.

[chw42]

It's responses like this that make threads like this utterly ridiculous.

 

I never said anything like this. I believe Pierre is an above average hitter, whose speed makes him a decent asset if the middle of the lineup is working properly.

 

I don't believe he merits the continuous bashing he receives by the same five people who resort to childish tactics to make their points.

 

 

Dude...seriously? If you give Juan Pierre a double for every time he singles and steals a base (without penalizing him for the caught stealings), he'd still be a below average hitter. An average hitter in the majors has a wOBA of around .320 this season. Juan Pierre has a .301 wOBA this season, that's 17% below league average given U.S. Cellular Field park adjustments. In fact, Juan Pierre's wOBA has eclipsed .320 only once in the past 6 seasons. You know what else is sad about this...? wOBA takes stolen bases into account.

 

Better yet, let's look at batting runs (based off of wOBA) + BSR (base running runs) for Pierre since 2005 to get a better glimpse of how productive Pierre is as an offensive player. The first number is his batting runs, second is base running.

2005: -7 + 3.1 = -4.1

2006: -11.7 + 4.4 = -7.3

2007: -6.7 + 7.6 = 0.9

2008: -7.2 + 1.2 = -6

2009: 4.5 + 2.7 = 7.2

2010: -8.4 + 6.8 = -1.6

2011: -10.2 + 3.7 = -6.5

 

Total Batting + Base Running Runs = -17.4 runs

Average Batting + Base Running Runs per 700 PA = -2.8 runs

 

I'm trying to be fair here by including base running. Technically, that doesn't count as hitting. It's an offensive contribution, but the statement "Juan Pierre is an above average hitter" is completely wrong and the statement "Juan Pierre is an above average offensive player" is slightly less wrong, but wrong nonetheless.

[chw42]

I'd agree, but I also believe OPS is a statistic that ultimately weights SLG too highly in comparison with OBP, and that using OPS is especially problematic with traditional leadoff hitters.

 

As J4L said, this is why we have wOBA. wOBA actually gives hitters who can't hit for power a fair judgement.

 

Take Brett Gardner for instance.

 

Gardner had a .762 OPS last season, but he had a .383 OBP and a .379 SLG.

 

As you said, OPS weighs these equally, which is a mathematical fallacy (they share different denominators) and also counts for singles twice. wOBA gives a linear weighted value to every single event and is then divided by PAs. This is mathematically sound and most importantly, gives more detailed values to events. So for instance, a walk is not weighted as a 1, it's weighted as .7 (values change every year) and singles are weighted .9, doubles are 1.2, etc.

 

Now back to Gardner, even though his .762 OPS wasn't bad last season, it is definitely mediocre. On the flip side, Brett Gardner had a .358 wOBA last season, good for a wRC+ of 121. Gardner's OPS+ was a 105.

 

That's a 16% difference. You can apply this test to Juan Pierre as well. Last season, Pierre had a .312 wOBA good for a wRC+ of 88. His OPS+ was 79, a 9% difference.

 

wOBA also penalizes guys who hit nothing but home runs but never walk. Basically it comes down to OBP when you talk about wOBA and Pierre's OBP has always been lacking due to his pretty bad walk rate. Getting on base creates runs and Pierre's not good at that. He can steal all the bases he wants, but he can't steal first.

 

 

[greg775]

Name one, Mr Broadbrush

 

You haven't read the threads where people are penciling in Rios for next year's outfield and have no problem doing so as they expect a return to the normal numbers for him?

Posters have said they hope and/or expect him to return to 2009 stats or whenever he had a 'good' year for us.

 

I won't go through all the posts but if you start a Rios thread I'm sure those people will surface again. There are those not giving up on Rios being a good player. Some love his tools.

 

To the Juan haters ... Hibbard made a good point that at least the guy gives us some speed as well. He may not steal bases but he actually can go first to third and score from second on a single. I NEVER said I want him back; just that he is a good baseball player. I do NOT think Rios is a good player. I do think Quentin is a good player. And signs are DeAza may be a good player thus the outfield of Tank, DeAza, CQ for the future even though we'll still be lacking speed in 2 of those 3 players.

Edited September 9, 2011 by greg775

[Greg Hibbard]

when I say "hitter" - I mean "hitter" in terms of getting hits, not getting on base.

 

The rest of your post is quite good, chw42, and I'll respond to it after the game.

[Lemon_44]

The bottom line is Juan Pierre did his job this year and is not the reason the Sox have been bad. He's not great, he's not terrible. He went out and did exactly what was expected of him. I don't know wht it has to be one way or the other. I haven't seen anyone clamoring for him to be back next year ,as it's pretty much a foregone conclusin that he won't be. If De Aza hits in the mid .280's next year, everyone will be satistfied. BUt let's see him do it first. I think its funny people are quick to rundowm Pierre, yet the bum Brian Anderson had people defending him on here for years. Like I said, you have to go far down the list of reasons for failure on this year's Sox team before you come to JP. This is sad, but other than Konerko, who has had a better offensive year for the Sox. Quentin is really the only one that can be considered, possibly AJ, but doubtful. We know it's not Rios, Dunn, Beckham, Morel, Alexei. Lillibridge has been overall pretty good but has limited at bats.

[chw42]

when I say "hitter" - I mean "hitter" in terms of getting hits, not getting on base.

 

The rest of your post is quite good, chw42, and I'll respond to it after the game.

 

Getting on base is part of hitting though. In fact, some people would say getting on base is the hitter's only objective i.e. avoiding outs. Pierre sucks at that.

 

 

[chw42]

The bottom line is Juan Pierre did his job this year and is not the reason the Sox have been bad. He's not great, he's not terrible. He went out and did exactly what was expected of him. I don't know wht it has to be one way or the other. I haven't seen anyone clamoring for him to be back next year ,as it's pretty much a foregone conclusin that he won't be. If De Aza hits in the mid .280's next year, everyone will be satistfied. BUt let's see him do it first. I think its funny people are quick to rundowm Pierre, yet the bum Brian Anderson had people defending him on here for years. Like I said, you have to go far down the list of reasons for failure on this year's Sox team before you come to JP. This is sad, but other than Konerko, who has had a better offensive year for the Sox. Quentin is really the only one that can be considered, possibly AJ, but doubtful. We know it's not Rios, Dunn, Beckham, Morel, Alexei. Lillibridge has been overall pretty good but has limited at bats.

 

I expected more than replacement level production and horrid defense in April. I'm fine if Pierre did what he did last season (Play good defense, steal bases, have an okay OBP). But his defense and base running ability are nowhere near his production from last season.

[Leonard Zelig]

Getting on base is part of hitting though. In fact, some people would say getting on base is the hitter's only objective i.e. avoiding outs. Pierre sucks at that.

 

Pierre is 2nd on the Sox in OBP among qualifiers.

[greg775]

I expected more than replacement level production and horrid defense in April. I'm fine if Pierre did what he did last season (Play good defense, steal bases, have an okay OBP). But his defense and base running ability are nowhere near his production from last season.

 

April, April, April. So sick of hearing about one month.

[chw42]

Pierre is 2nd on the Sox in OBP among qualifiers.

Quentin would be second if he didn't get hurt. Even then, he's getting 2.9 AB per game instead of 3.1 for qualifiers.

 

The ultimate point is this. Pierre makes a ton of outs and when he doesn't, he usually hits singles. I don't see how this is so hard to understand.

Edited September 10, 2011 by chw42

[chw42]

April, April, April. So sick of hearing about one month.

 

If it wasn't for April, this team would still be in the race. Have you ever considered this?

[bigruss]

If it wasn't for April, this team would still be in the race. Have you ever considered this?

That would require being subjective about this organization, so no.

[chw42]

That would require being objective about this organization, so no.

 

Is that what you meant?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Pierre is 2nd on the Sox in OBP among qualifiers.

 

That's simply wonderful. But in this great sport of baseball, it's much more important to outperform, ya know, your actual peers. Not to be the tallest midget among your non-Konerko horses*** teammates.

Edited September 10, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Milkman delivers]

If it wasn't for April, this team would still be in the race. Have you ever considered this?

 

It's a joke that anyone could NOT understand that.

[Kyyle23]

You haven't read the threads where people are penciling in Rios for next year's outfield and have no problem doing so as they expect a return to the normal numbers for him?

Posters have said they hope and/or expect him to return to 2009 stats or whenever he had a 'good' year for us.

 

I won't go through all the posts but if you start a Rios thread I'm sure those people will surface again. There are those not giving up on Rios being a good player. Some love his tools.

 

To the Juan haters ... Hibbard made a good point that at least the guy gives us some speed as well. He may not steal bases but he actually can go first to third and score from second on a single. I NEVER said I want him back; just that he is a good baseball player. I do NOT think Rios is a good player. I do think Quentin is a good player. And signs are DeAza may be a good player thus the outfield of Tank, DeAza, CQ for the future even though we'll still be lacking speed in 2 of those 3 players.

 

i do not recall a thread where any member preferred rios in the outfield, no.

 

see greg, this is where you have been wrong about what this site is sating and what they mean. looking at the reality of this situation, rios is signed for a lot of money and a lot of years, and he had 2 out of his last 3 seasons that were just brutal in terms of production. that makes him virtually unmoveable, so your idea that we can just trade rios and then have an outfield of tank de aza and quentin is extremely unrealistic and even more unlikely. if i had my choice, would i keep quentin and trade rios? absolutely, but that is not what is going to happen barring an amazing bait and switch job to get some team to take rios.

 

so that brings me back to next season and the likelihood of rios being on the white sox. he is going to play, he is going to start, and i am not happy about it, but that is the way it works. that does not make me someone who wants rios in the outfield as you state, that just makes me someone who understands how the economics of baseball play into the everyday lineup.

 

the way you infer peoples opinions and tell everyone that "we are all haters" or "you all love X player" is absolutely wrong.

[Leonard Zelig]

Quentin would be second if he didn't get hurt. Even then, he's getting 2.9 AB per game instead of 3.1 for qualifiers.

 

The ultimate point is this. Pierre makes a ton of outs and when he doesn't, he usually hits singles. I don't see how this is so hard to understand.

 

What is it that you think I don't understand? I simply stated a fact. Your comment on Quentin, on the other hand, is complete conjecture as you have no way of knowing how he would have performed if he had not been injured.

[Jordan4life_2007]

What is it that you think I don't understand? I simply stated a fact. Your comment on Quentin, on the other hand, is complete conjecture as you have no way of knowing how he would have performed if he had not been injured.

 

Oh GMAB. CQ >>> Pierre.

[Marty34]

SABRmetrics has jumped the shark. If you watch and understand the game you know Pierre did his job. You also know that the Tigers are simply better than the Sox.

[Jordan4life_2007]

SABRmetrics has jumped the shark. If you watch and understand the game you know Pierre did his job. You also know that the Tigers are simply better than the Sox.

 

You don't need Sabermetrics to know that JP has a limited skill-set and shouldn't be accumulating anywhere near 700 PAs a season. That's the thing. If used correctly, he could be an asset. But not with Ozzie. Jerry Owens would've gotten 600+ PAs in '08 had he not gotten hurt.

[fathom]

SABRmetrics has jumped the shark. If you watch and understand the game you know Pierre did his job. You also know that the Tigers are simply better than the Sox.

 

If you watch Pierre, you know his skill-set makes him rely on others far too much to end up scoring a run. The White Sox need to be a team based around hitting home runs, plain and simple.

[Marty34]

You don't need Sabermetrics to know that JP has a limited skill-set and shouldn't be accumulating anywhere near 700 PAs a season. That's the thing. If used correctly, he could be an asset. But not with Ozzie. Jerry Owens would've gotten 600+ PAs in '08 had he not gotten hurt.

 

Define "use him correctly"? People here have Dunn and Rios on the bench. There are only 25 roster spots.

[Balta1701]

SABRmetrics has jumped the shark. If you watch and understand the game you know Pierre did his job. You also know that the Tigers are simply better than the Sox.

When Juan Pierre gets on base, I don't want him running. When a fly ball goes to LF, I cringe.

 

That's pretty much my summary of watching Juan Pierre's game.