Offseason Plans

[Marty34]

Since you joined in 2004, I was really hoping you could pull a post out of the hat suggesting your current deconstruction/rebuild-THINK but for the impending 2005 season.

 

That would be most impressive.

 

I don't think anyone honestly could have predicted the 2005 or 2008 seasons going in...just like no Red Sox fan possibly could have predicted September, 2011. Or a White Sox fan predicting 26-5 in 2010 or 4-18 in 2011.

 

I don't see the '05 model as the plan. They can't get out from the Dunn contract to fill holes like they did with the Lee contract. Also, it looks like there is going to be a significant payroll reduction next year, perhaps 25% or more. Something that did not happen from 2004 to 2005.

[Marty34]

I'd certainly agree with this assessment.

 

Thanks, Squirt much appreciated. I'm tearing up here.

[Balta1701]

I don't see the '05 model as the plan. They can't get out from the Dunn contract to fill holes like they did with the Lee contract. Also, it looks like there is going to be a significant payroll reduction next year, perhaps 25% or more. Something that did not happen from 2004 to 2005.

If the Sox want to be competitive, the plan has to be recovery from the $50 million in dead weight space on their roster (plus Beckham). Everything has to be focused on making that happen. If it doesn't happen we're not getting anywhere.

[Marty34]

If the Sox want to be competitive, the plan has to be recovery from the $50 million in dead weight space on their roster (plus Beckham). Everything has to be focused on making that happen. If it doesn't happen we're not getting anywhere.

 

They have to build around those contracts which is going to be a daunting task and one that will require very difficult decisions. Even if every right move is made it still might not work out.

 

[southsider2k5]

They have to build around those contracts which is going to be a daunting task and one that will require very difficult decisions. Even if every right move is made it still might not work out.

 

Peavy is off of the books after 12. That is a large chunk of change right there. Rios is off after 14, though each year that goes by, it becomes easier to move or cut him.

[Marty34]

Peavy is off of the books after 12. That is a large chunk of change right there. Rios is off after 14, though each year that goes by, it becomes easier to move or cut him.

 

Right, but you can't sit still while you wait for these contracts to roll off. The goal has to be to have a cheap, solid core together by 2014 so that you can fill in the holes by spending.

[southsider2k5]

Right, but you can't sit still while you wait for these contracts to roll off. The goal has to be to have a cheap, solid core together by 2014 so that you can fill in the holes by spending.

 

They are doing exactly that.

[Balta1701]

Right, but you can't sit still while you wait for these contracts to roll off. The goal has to be to have a cheap, solid core together by 2014 so that you can fill in the holes by spending.

If those 3(4) actually perform next year, there's no real reason why this team can't compete for the Central. That's obviously an enormous "If", but it's clearly true.

[Milkman delivers]

Appreciate the kind words Milkman.

 

No problem. I'm sure most actually agree.

[Marty34]

If those 3(4) actually perform next year, there's no real reason why this team can't compete for the Central. That's obviously an enormous "If", but it's clearly true.

 

They can compete with what around them? Keep Danks, Quentin, Thornton et al? That's great on paper, however it's very likely that there will be a decline in attendance next year making a $125M payroll a pipe dream. If you keep Danks and Floyd in hopes of competing you devalue two of your most tradeable commodities.

[Balta1701]

They can compete with what around them? Keep Danks, Quentin, Thornton et al? That's great on paper, however it's very likely that there will be a decline in attendance next year making a $125M payroll a pipe dream. If you keep Danks and Floyd in hopes of competing you devalue two of your most tradeable commodities.

No, if Viciedo replaces Quentin in the OF, De Aza replaces Pierre, and we keep Buehrle around while going to a 5 man rotation instead of this lousy 6 man thing, the team is potentially competitive right there...but the big question is whether Dunn, Rios, Beckham, and Peavy will be black holes.

 

Remember, Quentin only put up an .850 OPS this year, good but not irreplaceable, and he missed more than a month of the season. Danks was flat out bad for 2 months, hurt for another month, and I can count on what, 1 hand the number of truly dominant starts he had?

 

De Aza is almost certainly an upgrade from Pierre, Morel Year 2 ought to be a substantial upgrade from Morel year 1, Flowers + AJ will at least hold down the fort at catcher, Konerko I'm getting sick of predicting a step back from him.

 

Where are the downgrades? Viciedo to Quentin possibly/probably. AJ and Konerko another year older possibly. Alexei could have a terrible season. Crain or someone like that could get hurt, but now we're grasping at straws. 27 weak/below average starts from Danks removed from the staff isn't a big downgrade, especially if Humber can take on some of those innings. Mark might not be quite as strong next year.

 

If you get good production out of the dead 4, that will easily overwhelm any downgrade from this year's stinkfest. Those 4 could each give you 3 or more WAR compared to this season, which on its own makes up 12 of those games that we fell behind this year. Hell, Dunn having a good year compared to this year would be an extra 6 WAR.

[Marty34]

No, if Viciedo replaces Quentin in the OF, De Aza replaces Pierre, and we keep Buehrle around while going to a 5 man rotation instead of this lousy 6 man thing, the team is potentially competitive right there...but the big question is whether Dunn, Rios, Beckham, and Peavy will be black holes.

 

Remember, Quentin only put up an .850 OPS this year, good but not irreplaceable, and he missed more than a month of the season. Danks was flat out bad for 2 months, hurt for another month, and I can count on what, 1 hand the number of truly dominant starts he had?

 

De Aza is almost certainly an upgrade from Pierre, Morel Year 2 ought to be a substantial upgrade from Morel year 1, Flowers + AJ will at least hold down the fort at catcher, Konerko I'm getting sick of predicting a step back from him.

 

Where are the downgrades? Viciedo to Quentin possibly/probably. AJ and Konerko another year older possibly. Alexei could have a terrible season. Crain or someone like that could get hurt, but now we're grasping at straws. 27 weak/below average starts from Danks removed from the staff isn't a big downgrade, especially if Humber can take on some of those innings. Mark might not be quite as strong next year.

 

If you get good production out of the dead 4, that will easily overwhelm any downgrade from this year's stinkfest. Those 4 could each give you 3 or more WAR compared to this season, which on its own makes up 12 of those games that we fell behind this year. Hell, Dunn having a good year compared to this year would be an extra 6 WAR.

 

What's the rotation and payroll estimate for this?

[Balta1701]

What's the rotation and payroll estimate for this?

Assume that M-56 resigns for somewhere in the $10 million range. Danks and Quentin are traded.

 

Rotation:

Mark!

Peavy

Sale

Humber

Floyd

 

That is not bad at all...if Jake Peavy can pitch like a better than average starter. I can even bury Stewart or Axelrod at AAA and have them ready to go if Humber tires out again or Peavy gets hurt.

 

I'm at $88 million on commits, probably $90 after signing Sergio today. $10 million for Mark Buehrle gives me 13 players under contract at $100 million. Filling up the rest of the roster with minimum salary guys takes me to $107 million or so. That's a $20 million salary cut from this season's payroll with that scenario.

 

If Peavy, Dunn, and Rios struggle, then I'm playing De Aza, Viciedo, Beckham, Morel, Flowers, Sale, Reed, Santos, and Humber a lot to try to develop them, because the season is lost, and I can throw in the towel and try to move Floyd, Crain, Thornton and Ohman at the deadline. And all of that has assumed zero return on Danks and Quentin being moved.

 

Now, we do have trader kenny as the GM still which means that the unexpected is somewhere between possible and likely...but this is a scenario that works, keeps starting pitching depth, gives us a bullpen as good or better than this year's (if Reed performs), and isn't a huge, obvious downgrade anywhere.

[RockRaines]

Floyd is gone as well as Thornton for cost cutting reasons and it decreases even more.

[thedoctor]

wow, an Ncorgbl reference. blast from the past.

[Balta1701]

Floyd is gone as well as Thornton for cost cutting reasons and it decreases even more.

Note what I'm doing in my scenario...I haven't moved anyone I don't have an obvious replacement for. I don't currently have an obvious replacement for those 2. Thus...if I have to move them, then it makes competing next year quite a bit harder. Possibly that one LHP who came up this season as a replacement for Thornton as a 2nd lefty, but that is a likely substantial downgrade.

 

If $110 million isn't sustainable and we must get down to $100 million, then those 2 would be on the moveable list. I don't like the idea of replacing Floyd with Axelrod or Stewart off the bat very much...in this case, the Sox need a Cooper-specialty or to grab an MLB-ready starter in 1 of these deals.

[Marty34]

Assume that M-56 resigns for somewhere in the $10 million range. Danks and Quentin are traded.

 

Rotation:

Mark!

Peavy

Sale

Humber

Floyd

 

That is not bad at all...if Jake Peavy can pitch like a better than average starter. I can even bury Stewart or Axelrod at AAA and have them ready to go if Humber tires out again or Peavy gets hurt.

 

I'm at $88 million on commits, probably $90 after signing Sergio today. $10 million for Mark Buehrle gives me 13 players under contract at $100 million. Filling up the rest of the roster with minimum salary guys takes me to $107 million or so. That's a $20 million salary cut from this season's payroll with that scenario.

 

If Peavy, Dunn, and Rios struggle, then I'm playing De Aza, Viciedo, Beckham, Morel, Flowers, Sale, Reed, Santos, and Humber a lot to try to develop them, because the season is lost, and I can throw in the towel and try to move Floyd, Crain, Thornton and Ohman at the deadline. And all of that has assumed zero return on Danks and Quentin being moved.

 

Now, we do have trader kenny as the GM still which means that the unexpected is somewhere between possible and likely...but this is a scenario that works, keeps starting pitching depth, gives us a bullpen as good or better than this year's (if Reed performs), and isn't a huge, obvious downgrade anywhere.

 

I think that's the best rotation we can hope for. I wonder though if the payroll will be closer to the $90-$95M range and attendance projected to be around 1.75M-1.8M.

[Balta1701]

I think that's the best rotation we can hope for. I wonder though if the payroll will be closer to the $90-$95M range and attendance projected to be around 1.75M-1.8M.

Considering how long this team has sat at $100 million payrolls, basically 2006-2010 they averaged $105 million, it's hard for me to fathom them being forced to go back to $90 even with this attendance drop. It could happen, but if that's the case...then not selling more people at the deadline this year looks even more criminal.

[Marty34]

Considering how long this team has sat at $100 million payrolls, basically 2006-2010 they averaged $105 million, it's hard for me to fathom them being forced to go back to $90 even with this attendance drop. It could happen, but if that's the case...then not selling more people at the deadline this year looks even more criminal.

 

I'm not optimistic at all about ticket sales next year. For all the obvious reasons and there is something like 6 home games between July 3 and August 1st?? Will get a clue on their financial situation with who they hire as manager. If it's LaRussa I could foresee a payroll of $110M, if it's Alomar I think it's ~$90M.

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

Our biggest asset right now is our mid rotation to back rotation guys. I think that we can trade both Floyd and Danks and still boast a decent rotation.

 

Starting Pitchers:

 

Buehrle

Peavy

Sale

Stewart

Axelrod

 

Bullpen:

 

Santos

Reed

Crain

Humber

Santiago

Ohman

Free agent/prospect

 

Trading Thorton will save us some money and get a decent 'spect in return. I think the AL has figured this guy out. We need to put Humber in the pen over Stewart and Axelrod because Humber can give you 5 decent innings on most days, but his effectiveness is gone by the 6th or 7th.

 

Lineup

 

De Aza

Beckham

Konerko

Tank

Dunn

Rios

AJ

Alexei

Morel

 

Bench:

 

Lillibridge

Escobar

Flowers

5th outfielder (D2 will probably be gone along with D1)

 

This lineup looks really weak on paper, especially with Paulie aging, it probably won't get us anywhere. But if Beckham finally figures out under a new hitting coach, De Aza continues to play like he did this year, Dunn and Rios come back to norm, then we might just have a shot at competing.

 

Trade Candidates:

Quentin, Thorton, Dank, and Floyd. Hopefully these trades will haul back some decent corner infield prospects, and a couple of good pitching prospect to replenish our system. Now, if we could get Mitchell, Walker, Thompson and K Smith to pan out...

Edited October 2, 2011 by thxfrthmmrs

[Wanne]

I just read Gonzales mail bag...and he even states for Dunn to get his eyesight checked. Is this really a new concept. Did NOBODY think of this during the season like many on here (including me) were saying. Why are all they people saying this? Such a simple fix...but was it even done during the season.

[Balta1701]

Our biggest asset right now is our mid rotation to back rotation guys. I think that we can trade both Floyd and Danks and still boast a decent rotation.

 

Starting Pitchers:

 

Buehrle

Peavy

Sale

Stewart

Axelrod

 

Bullpen:

 

Santos

Reed

Crain

Humber

Santiago

Ohman

Free agent/prospect

If we have to get salary down to $90 million or below this may be the only option...but a rotation with Stewart and Axelrod as your 4-5 starters is highly unlikely to be competitive next year. Especially when you factor in the fact that Sale can't be expected to go past 150 innings even if he's stellar and Peavy might well hurt himself in Feb. for all we know.

[thxfrthmmrs]

If we have to get salary down to $90 million or below this may be the only option...but a rotation with Stewart and Axelrod as your 4-5 starters is highly unlikely to be competitive next year. Especially when you factor in the fact that Sale can't be expected to go past 150 innings even if he's stellar and Peavy might well hurt himself in Feb. for all we know.

 

 

I personally do not have much faith in Stewart, but judging from Axelrod's minor league track record and his cup of tea this year, I think he could end up being a nice 4th starter for this team. But since we have Humber in the bullpen as insurance, if either of Axelrod or Stewart falters, I think Humber should be given a chance to prove himself once more. As far as pitching rotation depth is concerned, if we are trading Q, D1, Floyd, and Thorton, I would expect us to net a few close to major league ready starting pitching prospects back.

 

Based on our attendance this year, I think you are right on with our cap situation this year. Getting to around $90 million means Danks and perhaps Floyd won't be back next year. What we have in house right now may be question marks, but in reality, I don't think the drop off is that big from this year.

[cabiness42]

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the Sox having any kind of chance in 2012 if they trade Quentin away. He's the second-best hitter on what is a very pathetic offense.

[Balta1701]

I'm sorry, but I just don't see the Sox having any kind of chance in 2012 if they trade Quentin away. He's the second-best hitter on what is a very pathetic offense.

You just explained why he's replaceable though...2nd best hitter on a pathetic offense. Quentin is replaceable. His replacement may already be here in Viciedo. He's not great defensively even though he was adequate this year, and he's good for a month on the DL every year at least.

 

An OF of De Aza, Lillibridge, Viciedo has a real good shot at being better offensively and defensively than Pierre, Rios, Quentin. And if Rios happens to hit well enough to break back in, so much the better.