southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Oct 3, 2011 -> 11:23 PM) I personally do not have much faith in Stewart, but judging from Axelrod's minor league track record and his cup of tea this year, I think he could end up being a nice 4th starter for this team. But since we have Humber in the bullpen as insurance, if either of Axelrod or Stewart falters, I think Humber should be given a chance to prove himself once more. As far as pitching rotation depth is concerned, if we are trading Q, D1, Floyd, and Thorton, I would expect us to net a few close to major league ready starting pitching prospects back. Based on our attendance this year, I think you are right on with our cap situation this year. Getting to around $90 million means Danks and perhaps Floyd won't be back next year. What we have in house right now may be question marks, but in reality, I don't think the drop off is that big from this year. I'm guessing they get at least one more starting pitcher from the deals this year. If we know anything about Kenny, it is that he loves pitching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:53 AM) I'm guessing they get at least one more starting pitcher from the deals this year. If we know anything about Kenny, it is that he loves pitching. If KW gets anything of higher quality and greater MLB-Readiness than Stewart for the guys he has to trade, I'll be very impressed and stunned. That said, I was impressed by him turning Jackson into Stewart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 You just explained why he's replaceable though...2nd best hitter on a pathetic offense. Quentin is replaceable. His replacement may already be here in Viciedo. He's not great defensively even though he was adequate this year, and he's good for a month on the DL every year at least. An OF of De Aza, Lillibridge, Viciedo has a real good shot at being better offensively and defensively than Pierre, Rios, Quentin. And if Rios happens to hit well enough to break back in, so much the better. An OF of Quentin, deAza/Lillibridge, Viciedo has a real good shot at being better offensively than deAza, Lillibridge, Viciedo. By quite a bit. And then you have the potential to play Lillibridge in the IF some if Beckham and/or Morel don't hit next year. I'm sorry, but I just don't see an OF comprised of Viciedo, deAza, Lillibridge, and Rios producing enough offensively to win games unless Dunn, Beckham, and Morel all have massive turnarounds next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:11 AM) An OF of Quentin, deAza/Lillibridge, Viciedo has a real good shot at being better offensively than deAza, Lillibridge, Viciedo. By quite a bit. And then you have the potential to play Lillibridge in the IF some if Beckham and/or Morel don't hit next year. I'm sorry, but I just don't see an OF comprised of Viciedo, deAza, Lillibridge, and Rios producing enough offensively to win games unless Dunn, Beckham, and Morel all have massive turnarounds next year. But that Quentin, De Aza/elf, Viciedo OF is also going to be worse defensively than the one I wrote down...and this season's OF defense was bad enough to hurt this team a lot (Juan Pierre agrees). And there's literally no room at all for Rios...which I know some would view as a great thing...but like it or not we've got $36 million more to pay him, so we ought to at least be able to give him some at bats. Yes, it will take recoveries by Dunn, Beckham, and Morel to win the Central next year. Even if you kept the OF you want...it would take recoveries by Dunn, Beckham, and Morel to win the Central next year. I think we're at the point where we can no longer focus solely on next year...we have to look beyond next year as well...and that means Quentin has to be moved for whatever we can get. Especially if you throw in the $7 million salary he's likely to get...and realize that it's probably Quentin or Buehrle. Or Quentin or Floyd...not both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I think we're at the point where we can no longer focus solely on next year...we have to look beyond next year as well...and that means Quentin has to be moved for whatever we can get. Which is my original point that trading Quentin = giving up on 2012. If that's the best course of action, then I'm OK with that. I just don't want to hear how the best chance for the Sox to win in 2012 involves trading Quentin because it doesn't. If the payroll won't allow keeping Quentin in 2012, then the payroll won't allow winning in 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2011 -> 07:46 AM) If we have to get salary down to $90 million or below this may be the only option...but a rotation with Stewart and Axelrod as your 4-5 starters is highly unlikely to be competitive next year. A rotation that includes Axelrod and Stewart is likely to lose 90+ games which is ok for one year, but they have to be replaced with better pitchers. That's why I advocate dealing guys like Ramirez and Santos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:25 AM) Which is my original point that trading Quentin = giving up on 2012. If that's the best course of action, then I'm OK with that. I just don't want to hear how the best chance for the Sox to win in 2012 involves trading Quentin because it doesn't. If the payroll won't allow keeping Quentin in 2012, then the payroll won't allow winning in 2012. No...trading Quentin is not "Giving up on 2012." Giving up on 2012 to me is going into 2012 with a starting rotation missing both Buehrle and Danks. This team can win in 2012 if Beckham, Peavy, Rios, and Dunn have "recovery" seasons and Morel, De Aza, Sale, and Viciedo keep developing. I don't see how that calculus changes if Carlos Quentin is here. We're not winning the Central if those things don't happen, and we've got a shot if the majority of them do happen. The one thing that keeps us from having a shot if those guys do recover is the starting rotation being too weak...which is possible if Mark! isn't back and D1 is also gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:28 AM) A rotation that includes Axelrod and Stewart is likely to lose 90+ games which is ok for one year, but they have to be replaced with better pitchers. That's why I advocate dealing guys like Ramirez and Santos. It really doesn't help this team to spend a full year of 90 losses trying to develop Axelrod and Stewart only to cast them aside in 2013 when better pitchers arrive. If you're going to take the losses for a year (a-la 2007), then develop the pitchers you need for the next campaign. Don't waste a year of losses, then the losing becomes normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:30 AM) It really doesn't help this team to spend a full year of 90 losses trying to develop Axelrod and Stewart only to cast them aside in 2013 when better pitchers arrive. If you're going to take the losses for a year (a-la 2007), then develop the pitchers you need for the next campaign. Don't waste a year of losses, then the losing becomes normal. There's a good chance that they prove they are not major league caliber starters not to say there isn't a role for them in the pen. The Sox need better starting options for 2013 and beyond than Axelrod and Stewart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 No...trading Quentin is not "Giving up on 2012." Giving up on 2012 to me is going into 2012 with a starting rotation missing both Buehrle and Danks. This team can win in 2012 if Beckham, Peavy, Rios, and Dunn have "recovery" seasons and Morel, De Aza, Sale, and Viciedo keep developing. I don't see how that calculus changes if Carlos Quentin is here. We're not winning the Central if those things don't happen, and we've got a shot if the majority of them do happen. The one thing that keeps us from having a shot if those guys do recover is the starting rotation being too weak...which is possible if Mark! isn't back and D1 is also gone. OK, I think we are both starting from the assumption that among Quentin, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd, the Sox can only afford to keep two of them. You are saying the Sox need to keep two pitchers and I say keep one pitcher and Quentin. This is why: We think we know what we will get from Konerko, Ramirez, and AJ/Flowers. That leaves six spots in the lineup. Without Quentin, you need to fill six of those spots with some combination of Dunn, Beckham, Morel, Rios, de Aza, Lillibridge, and Viciedo. You need six of the seven to be productive, which means your margin for error is one player. If you keep Quentin, you now have four stable spots in the lineup and only need five of those seven to be productive, so now your margin for error is two players. On the flip side, keeping only one of the two pitchers means that you likely end up with Stewart or Axelrod in the rotation. So it boils down to Quentin + Stewart or Axelrod compared to one of the guys from the list + Danks or Buehrle. I think the difference between Quentin and whichever guy would end up being the odd man out is so great that it would outweigh the difference between the pitchers. I guess maybe it's partially because Rios and Beckham have been so bad this year I'd rather take my chances with Axelrod than have to count on one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:38 AM) There's a good chance that they prove they are not major league caliber starters not to say there isn't a role for them in the pen. The Sox need better starting options for 2013 and beyond than Axelrod and Stewart. If they're not major league caliber starters...and they're just going to wind up in the pen...then it is a terrible waste to spend a full season at the big league level trying to develop them as starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:44 AM) If they're not major league caliber starters...and they're just going to wind up in the pen...then it is a terrible waste to spend a full season at the big league level trying to develop them as starters. Not when 1.) they are the best options, 2.) the Sox aren't going to win anything in 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:25 AM) Which is my original point that trading Quentin = giving up on 2012. If that's the best course of action, then I'm OK with that. I just don't want to hear how the best chance for the Sox to win in 2012 involves trading Quentin because it doesn't. If the payroll won't allow keeping Quentin in 2012, then the payroll won't allow winning in 2012. I am going to bet that Dayan ends up putting up similar numbers to TCQ next year, especially when the injury factor is included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:48 AM) Not when 1.) they are the best options, 2.) the Sox aren't going to win anything in 2012. You have already begun the Pittsburghization of the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:44 AM) OK, I think we are both starting from the assumption that among Quentin, Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd, the Sox can only afford to keep two of them. You are saying the Sox need to keep two pitchers and I say keep one pitcher and Quentin. This is why: If we're thinking long term, there's 1 other issue here. D1 and Quentin are free agents after 2012. IMO, Mark Buehrle can probably be kept at an acceptable price comparable to what Danks will get in arbitration this year (maybe a couple million more) as long as he wants to keep pitching. If we were to hold onto Quentin...it'll be hard to get more than a sandwich pick for him. If we hold onto Danks, he might well go type A, but in both cases...we're getting a pittance of draft picks for the guys, when at least we could get tangible players by dealing them right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:49 AM) You have already begun the Pittsburghization of the Sox. Blame Kenny for the predicament the Sox are currently in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:49 AM) You have already begun the Pittsburghization of the Sox. That's exactly it. If Stewart and Axelrod are not long term starting rotation options...then that year is a waste. And then 2013 is spent developing more pitchers. And then maybe 2014 is as well. If we're going to lose in 2012, then lose with the guys who we think can compete in 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:52 AM) That's exactly it. If Stewart and Axelrod are not long term starting rotation options...then that year is a waste. And then 2013 is spent developing more pitchers. And then maybe 2014 is as well. If we're going to lose in 2012, then lose with the guys who we think can compete in 2013. That's all well and good, problem is Axelrod and Stewart are the Sox best options right now. That's why they have to be open to dealing Ramirez. I think Santos too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:58 AM) That's all well and good, problem is Axelrod and Stewart are the Sox best options right now. That's why they have to be open to dealing Ramirez. I think Santos too. That makes the same problem worse. Escobar isn't a likely long term SS option...and if he were to be, he's not likely to be ready to compete in 2013, even with a full 2012 season at SS in the bigs. Reed might well be able to be a closer option by 2013, so I'll leave that one out...but you're again losing in 2012 with no obvious path to getting back to contention in 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 08:52 AM) Blame Kenny for the predicament the Sox are currently in. I think you are stuck on repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/...t-quentin-trade Williams' comment hints at Quentin trade October, 3, 2011 By Doug Padilla CHICAGO -- General manager Kenny Williams’ latest comment about the immediate future of the Chicago White Sox was a head scratcher to many, but it may have been revealing to at least one of the team’s All-Stars. Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and MLB.com quoted seven words from Williams via Twitter that might have signaled the end of Carlos Quentin's time on the South Side. “We’re going to let the kids play,” is how Gammons quoted Williams on Monday. No, there isn't some unknown reserve of talent about to be unleashed on the South Side. Williams' comment doesn’t indicate anything more than the White Sox plan to continue their end-of-season plan that saw Alejandro De Aza, Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers getting more playing time. Chris Sale is expected to be moved into the starting rotation if Mark Buehrle isn’t re-signed and Addison Reed has a shot at starting the season in the bullpen. Brent Morel will continue to play third base. With Viciedo needing a place to play, that would mean Quentin is likely on the trading block. Indications are that the Philadelphia Phillies made a huge push for Quentin at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but Williams turned them down. Williams’ brief comment could also be taken as an indication that the White Sox do not plan to make a big splash on the free-agent market this winter. Instead, they figure to add key pieces with a Quentin trade and possibly by moving John Danks or Gavin Floyd. It remains to be seen how Flowers and A.J. Pierzynski will split time next season behind the plate. It’s still possible Pierzynski get most of the playing time, but his streak of 1,000 innings caught in each of the last 10 seasons would seem to be in jeopardy in 2012. It is the longest such active streak in the major leagues. Pierzynski, who will make $6 million next season, has the right to veto any trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I am going to bet that Dayan ends up putting up similar numbers to TCQ next year, especially when the injury factor is included. That would be great, and wouldn't you agree that two guys putting up similar numbers to TCQ would be better than one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 10:10 AM) That would be great, and wouldn't you agree that two guys putting up similar numbers to TCQ would be better than one? Yes, I think it would be great if Brent, Alejandro, or Rios put up those numbers too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:04 AM) That makes the same problem worse. Escobar isn't a likely long term SS option...and if he were to be, he's not likely to be ready to compete in 2013, even with a full 2012 season at SS in the bigs. Reed might well be able to be a closer option by 2013, so I'll leave that one out...but you're again losing in 2012 with no obvious path to getting back to contention in 2013. You think they contend in 2013 with Ramirez. I don't see how. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 4, 2011 -> 09:10 AM) That would be great, and wouldn't you agree that two guys putting up similar numbers to TCQ would be better than one? And a two hundred million dollar payroll would be best of all. But that isn't going to happen, and neither is Carlos Quentin on the 2012 Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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