Let the Rebuild Begin

[RockRaines]

Greg will poll 100 Jayhawks fans and they will claim never to have heard of Dunn or Rios but will be conspicuously wearing their brand-new Miami Marlins glow-in-the-dark gear.

 

After Bill Self and Roy Williams, #3 on their "I'd most like to have a beer with..." list would be Ozzie Guillen, followed by the Reverend Fred Phelps, anyone from the cast of "The Big Bang Theory" and Minka Kelly.

LOL. Awesome

[Wanne]

If he hits .200 next year with 20 hrs, sure. But if he hits .150 with 10 hrs in 2012, how would you see it playing out? He would just come back and shut his mouth, sit on the bench and pretend he's actually a legitimate baseball player?

 

He just looked like a beat down man. I honestly cannot see him going through this again and not seriously think about stepping away at some point. But again...I do hope he gets his vision checked out.

[Marty34]

If he hits .200 next year with 20 hrs, sure. But if he hits .150 with 10 hrs in 2012, how would you see it playing out? He would just come back and shut his mouth, sit on the bench and pretend he's actually a legitimate baseball player?

 

I see the White Sox being on the hook for $28M regardless. It's a waste of time believing anything else.

[greg775]

And what if that does happen?

 

We'd all be happy. If Dunn starts hitting the ball over the outfield walls regularly and Rios hits .300 and slugs like he did 2 years ago, our new manager likely will be the face of the franchise quickly.

[chw42]

We'd all be happy. If Dunn starts hitting the ball over the outfield walls regularly and Rios hits .300 and slugs like he did 2 years ago, our new manager likely will be the face of the franchise quickly.

 

No that means Rios and Dunn will be the face of the franchise. If a manager is the face of your franchise, something's wrong.

Edited September 29, 2011 by chw42

[jenksycat]

We'd all be happy. If Dunn starts hitting the ball over the outfield walls regularly and Rios hits .300 and slugs like he did 2 years ago, our new manager likely will be the face of the franchise quickly.

 

Hope that was sarcasm

[Wanne]

We'd all be happy. If Dunn starts hitting the ball over the outfield walls regularly and Rios hits .300 and slugs like he did 2 years ago, our new manager likely will be the face of the franchise quickly.

 

Personally I always thought Konerko was the face of the franchise. Is Francona the face of Boston? Girardi of the Yanks? If Charlie Manuel is the face of the Phillies...they need a facelift. You sure hold that position to a lofty expanse.

[Balta1701]

Personally I always thought Konerko was the face of the franchise. Is Francona the face of Boston? Girardi of the Yanks? If Charlie Manuel is the face of the Phillies...they need a facelift. You sure hold that position to a lofty expanse.

And that Mark! guy.

[The Ginger Kid]

The lineup I somewhat expect to see:

 

1. De Aza LF

2. Alexei SS

3. Dunn DH (ugh)

4. Konerko 1B

5. Viciedo RF

6. Flowers C

7.Rios CF

8. Morel 3B

9. Beckham 2B

 

Pitching

 

Buehrle

Peavy

Sale

Humber

Axelrod/Stewart

 

Pen

Ohman

Stewart/Axelrod

Reed

Santiago

Frasor

Santos

Crain

 

 

Where's Pujols going to play?

[Wanne]

And that Mark! guy.

 

ABSOLUTELY!!!

[southsider2k5]

Where's Pujols going to play?

 

I love the sig, but where it the Miami Vice pink shirt to match Ozzie's?

[spiderman]

Sox Seem Resigned to Rebuilding

 

 

Kenny pretty blunt about it too with some choice quotes. I for one am looking forward to a rebuild, even though I'm not sure Kenny is the one to be in charge of it. Bring it on.

 

It's not going to be a total rebuild, but I do expect 2 themes:

 

1) Save payroll whereever possible*

2) Mix in as many young players as possible.

*The exception to this rule is Mark Buerhle. Do they give him a 2 or 3 year deal at $12 million or so (which is less than he's making now)? I think it's doubtful unless he takes a significant discount (say $10 millin a season for 1 year with a club option on Year 2), which is unlikely given that he'll likely find an attractive deal on the open market.

 

C - A.J. Pierzynski: He's due to make $6 million next season. I expect the White Sox to move him to anyone who wants him. I think the White Sox will be happy to take little in return assuming the team who acquires him picks up the remainder of the deal. I'd prefer to have him come back since I'm not convinced that Tyler Flowers will hit .230 in a full season and he can also provide another left handed bat, and possibly some at-bats at DH if Dunn doesn't produce again. Still, I think there will be a few suitors for A.J., on a 1 year deal, likey saving the White Sox $6 million next season.

 

1B - Paul Konerko: He's getting older, and it's a shame that his last 2 seasons have gone for nothing, but he's one of the few offensive bright spots, and despite the impending age, is the least of the concerns for the White Sox.

 

2B - Gordon Beckham: He's been a bust. Yes, he plays pretty good defense, but he simply can't be given the 2B job next spring training without a battle. Personally, I'd love to see Brent Lillibridge get a shot here, but my guess is that the White Sox view him as a utility player. The player acquired from Florida, I believe Ozzie Martinez, is also being viewed as a possible 2B. In either case, this position will be filled internally next season.

 

3B - Brent Morel: Good defensive player who was a pretty bad hitter this season. He has to get on base more to be a productive player, and hopefully can keep the power stroke going next season. I'd like to think he can increase his OBP next season by drawing a few more walks, and hit about 15-20 HR. I may be aiming high here, but he's the unquestioned 3B of the future (for now).

 

SS - Alexi Ramirez: Still hoping him to put up better offensive numbers, but this may be what he iis, and that's a pretty solid MLB SS. Not great, but will make the defensive plays, and is a good position to have settled for the long-term.

 

LF - D.Viceido: This is the one guy from the minors who has upside and is their home grown prospect (well, sort of). I expect Juan Pierre to be allowed to walk, saving the White Sox a few million.

 

CF / RF: De Aza and Rios: I would hope that there is somebody else involved here. It could be Lillibridge. I'd prefer to see Rios in RF going forward, maybe an occasional start in CF and I think De Aza, based on strong play this season on the White Sox, is the favorite to earn regular playing time in CF/RF next season. OF is a spot the White Sox ould still add help via trade so I leave open the possibility that another young player could be added to the mix here. Carlos Quentin will be moved via trade since Vicedio can replace him and the Sox aren't likely to pay him on a long-term deal. He can save the team another $8 million or so, and net them a good prospect (or two) in a down market for power hitting.

 

SP: Chris Sale will be in the rotation. I think Mark Buerhle will be gone - that saves around $14 million if they let him walk. I think the White Sox will try to sign John Danks to a long-term deal, but, if not, he'll be on the market, and he's a guy they can bring back 2 good prospects for. It's unlikely both prospects could help immediately, but, if one is a young pitcher, that's another guy who could be in the mix. Gavin Floyd could also be on the market - I suspect it's either Danks or Floyd - and he can probably bring back a good prospect because he's under the teams' control for another 2 seasons and is a solid MLB starter, albeit a bit up and down. Phillip Humber had a good season - I'd love to see him have to earn a spot, but my guess is that with Zach Stewart and maybe another young guy from a trade in the mix, he'll be as high as the #2 or 3 starter. Jake Peavy probably can start no better than a #4 starter, maybe #5 early on because he can be passed on off-days. So, I think we're looking at having 1) Danks or Floyd, 2) Humber 3) Sale 4) Peavy 5) Stewart/Axelrod (with the chance of another young prospect being in the mix. Sale has top of the rotation stuff, but could take time to develop, but this is a rotation that is likely to get hit hard in the AL.

 

RP: Will probably be strength of the team again. Jason Frazior could be moved to save a few million, but it still leaves them with a solid closer in Sergio Santos, 2 leftie relievers in Matt Thornton and Will Ohman, and Jessie Crain fron the right side. Stewart and/or Axerlrod got their feet wet so they could be in the mix here as well. It's not going to be as deep if Sale and Frazior are not in the bullpen, but it's still 4 deep, and that could be a lot worse.

 

So, from possibly letting Buerhle and his $14 million go via free agency, trading A.J, and Frazior to save another $6-8 million depending on how the financials are worked out, plus re-tooling the OF by allowing Pierre to leave and moving Quentin (along with another starter in either Floyd or Danks), the White Sox could potentially cut payroll by around $25-$30 million. In exchange for all this payroll, the White Sox will probably acquire 3 or 4 good prospects (primarily for Danks and Quentin) although there's a reasonable assumption that at least 2 of these 4 guys wouldn't be MLB ready. Still, adding 2 guys who could compete for a spot, say one in the OF and another as a starting pitcher would provide some much needed young ntalnet and payroll relief.

 

Bottom line, the team is likely to be down for a few seasons until they can start developing more young talent and get out from under the bad contracts on the team. I highly doubt this team spends $125 million anytime soon - we'll probably looking at a max payroll of $100 million, maybe less. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios can provide some offense to help Konerko, then there is less dependence on the starting pitching, but will probably only allow them to hang around in a weak division.

[caulfield12]

It's not going to be a total rebuild, but I do expect 2 themes:

 

1) Save payroll whereever possible*

2) Mix in as many young players as possible.

*The exception to this rule is Mark Buerhle. Do they give him a 2 or 3 year deal at $12 million or so (which is less than he's making now)? I think it's doubtful unless he takes a significant discount (say $10 millin a season for 1 year with a club option on Year 2), which is unlikely given that he'll likely find an attractive deal on the open market.

 

C - A.J. Pierzynski: He's due to make $6 million next season. I expect the White Sox to move him to anyone who wants him. I think the White Sox will be happy to take little in return assuming the team who acquires him picks up the remainder of the deal. I'd prefer to have him come back since I'm not convinced that Tyler Flowers will hit .230 in a full season and he can also provide another left handed bat, and possibly some at-bats at DH if Dunn doesn't produce again. Still, I think there will be a few suitors for A.J., on a 1 year deal, likey saving the White Sox $6 million next season.

 

1B - Paul Konerko: He's getting older, and it's a shame that his last 2 seasons have gone for nothing, but he's one of the few offensive bright spots, and despite the impending age, is the least of the concerns for the White Sox.

 

2B - Gordon Beckham: He's been a bust. Yes, he plays pretty good defense, but he simply can't be given the 2B job next spring training without a battle. Personally, I'd love to see Brent Lillibridge get a shot here, but my guess is that the White Sox view him as a utility player. The player acquired from Florida, I believe Ozzie Martinez, is also being viewed as a possible 2B. In either case, this position will be filled internally next season.

 

3B - Brent Morel: Good defensive player who was a pretty bad hitter this season. He has to get on base more to be a productive player, and hopefully can keep the power stroke going next season. I'd like to think he can increase his OBP next season by drawing a few more walks, and hit about 15-20 HR. I may be aiming high here, but he's the unquestioned 3B of the future (for now).

 

SS - Alexi Ramirez: Still hoping him to put up better offensive numbers, but this may be what he iis, and that's a pretty solid MLB SS. Not great, but will make the defensive plays, and is a good position to have settled for the long-term.

 

LF - D.Viceido: This is the one guy from the minors who has upside and is their home grown prospect (well, sort of). I expect Juan Pierre to be allowed to walk, saving the White Sox a few million.

 

CF / RF: De Aza and Rios: I would hope that there is somebody else involved here. It could be Lillibridge. I'd prefer to see Rios in RF going forward, maybe an occasional start in CF and I think De Aza, based on strong play this season on the White Sox, is the favorite to earn regular playing time in CF/RF next season. OF is a spot the White Sox ould still add help via trade so I leave open the possibility that another young player could be added to the mix here. Carlos Quentin will be moved via trade since Vicedio can replace him and the Sox aren't likely to pay him on a long-term deal. He can save the team another $8 million or so, and net them a good prospect (or two) in a down market for power hitting.

 

SP: Chris Sale will be in the rotation. I think Mark Buerhle will be gone - that saves around $14 million if they let him walk. I think the White Sox will try to sign John Danks to a long-term deal, but, if not, he'll be on the market, and he's a guy they can bring back 2 good prospects for. It's unlikely both prospects could help immediately, but, if one is a young pitcher, that's another guy who could be in the mix. Gavin Floyd could also be on the market - I suspect it's either Danks or Floyd - and he can probably bring back a good prospect because he's under the teams' control for another 2 seasons and is a solid MLB starter, albeit a bit up and down. Phillip Humber had a good season - I'd love to see him have to earn a spot, but my guess is that with Zach Stewart and maybe another young guy from a trade in the mix, he'll be as high as the #2 or 3 starter. Jake Peavy probably can start no better than a #4 starter, maybe #5 early on because he can be passed on off-days. So, I think we're looking at having 1) Danks or Floyd, 2) Humber 3) Sale 4) Peavy 5) Stewart/Axelrod (with the chance of another young prospect being in the mix. Sale has top of the rotation stuff, but could take time to develop, but this is a rotation that is likely to get hit hard in the AL.

 

RP: Will probably be strength of the team again. Jason Frazior could be moved to save a few million, but it still leaves them with a solid closer in Sergio Santos, 2 leftie relievers in Matt Thornton and Will Ohman, and Jessie Crain fron the right side. Stewart and/or Axerlrod got their feet wet so they could be in the mix here as well. It's not going to be as deep if Sale and Frazior are not in the bullpen, but it's still 4 deep, and that could be a lot worse.

 

So, from possibly letting Buerhle and his $14 million go via free agency, trading A.J, and Frazior to save another $6-8 million depending on how the financials are worked out, plus re-tooling the OF by allowing Pierre to leave and moving Quentin (along with another starter in either Floyd or Danks), the White Sox could potentially cut payroll by around $25-$30 million. In exchange for all this payroll, the White Sox will probably acquire 3 or 4 good prospects (primarily for Danks and Quentin) although there's a reasonable assumption that at least 2 of these 4 guys wouldn't be MLB ready. Still, adding 2 guys who could compete for a spot, say one in the OF and another as a starting pitcher would provide some much needed young ntalnet and payroll relief.

 

Bottom line, the team is likely to be down for a few seasons until they can start developing more young talent and get out from under the bad contracts on the team. I highly doubt this team spends $125 million anytime soon - we'll probably looking at a max payroll of $100 million, maybe less. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios can provide some offense to help Konerko, then there is less dependence on the starting pitching, but will probably only allow them to hang around in a weak division.

 

With how poorly FRASOR pitched, he's definitely someone KW has to be wavering on offering arbitration and/or picking up the club option.

 

OTOH, he's not going to want for Stewart to be the ONLY return for Edwin Jackson, either.

 

In general, in agreement with almost all of what you said.

 

I think Peavy has to come to spring training ready to be a legit TOP 3 starter again for this team to have ANY chance to compete.

 

I'm not sure how easy it will be to get rid of AJ without eating a little bit of that contract, perhaps $1-1.5-2.0 million.

 

 

 

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Keep Frasor & trade Crain if possible. Heavily shop Thornton & definitely move Ohman.

 

If I were Kenny I would ask Paulie on a personal level whether or not he wants to be here in 2012 and going forward. If not I would move him and make it look like a Sox FO decision only. If so, he's pretty much the one piece I'm not shopping since outside of him the entire lineup ATM looks like bottom of the order hitters.

 

Danks has to be traded to the highest bidder.

 

Floyd should be extended further IMO, if possible.

 

Try to bring back MB.

 

Try to get a 2-year deal with CQ avoiding arb. Otherwise, only trade him if you absolutely have to. As long as he's pretty healthy he'll be movable around the deadline if we have to move him. I just don't want to dump his deal for a marginal prospect when there's still a real chance he could emerge in July as one of, if not the, top power bat on the market.

 

Acquire as much pitching as possible.

 

Absolutely do not, under any circumstances, count on anything from Axelrod in the future. Don't even say his name much less pencil it in. OTOH, please get someone to work closely with Hector Santiago & Zack Stewart as I love those guys.

[caulfield12]

Agree about Santiago...as we might be losing both Danks and Buehrle.

 

Addison Reed has to have a place in there somewhere, obviously.

 

Possibly Lindsay, Infante, Jihan Martinez (Marlins' acquisition), we can fill out the two end pieces from our system or trading away Danks and/or Quentin.

 

The one thing I don't like about keeping Quentin is that it forces DeAza back to the bench, essentially, or Viciedo back to AAA. Unless we're just totally giving up on Dunn, and it doesn't seem like we can afford to do that YET.

 

Keeping Gavin, that's a 50/50 proposition, depending upon what he's worth to other teams. I'm not sure spending $30 million for 3 years (something like that) makes much sense from the standpoint of the Sox rebuilding to keep him around, but obviously dealing both Floyd AND Danks AND losing Buehrle, doesn't seem that all THREE of those things can happen for us to remain competitive in 2012.

 

 

[Quin]

Definitely Sell: Quentin, Danks, Thornton

 

Probably Sell: Floyd, Crain, Ohman, Frasor (offer arb or trade).

 

Would Sell if Could Get Anything of Value For: AJ

 

Rotation: I'd expect Sale to take "Ace" status mid-year.

 

1 - Mark Buehrle (resigned to $10M per)

2 - Phil Humber

3 - Chris Sale

4 - Jake Peavy

5 - Dylan Axelrod/Zach Stewart duke it out in spring training.

 

Bullpen: Santos and Reed in the back will be nasty and I think Santiago and Lindsay could cover some, but the BP is taking a hit.

 

CL - Sergio Santos

SU - Addison Reed

SU - This will have to be adressed externally for a lefty SU.

MR - Shane Lindsay

MR - Gregory Infante/Jhan Marinez

LR - Loser of Axelrod/Stewart

LR/6th Starter - Hector Santiago

 

Starting Lineup: Rios and AJ would have Flowers and Lilli spell them a lot.

 

LF - Alejandro De Aza

SS - Alexei Ramirez

DH - Adam Dunn

1B - Paul Konerko

RF - Dayan Viciedo

C - AJ Pierzynski

3B - Brent Morel

CF - Alex Rios

2B - Gordon Beckham

 

Bench: Flowers would be groomed as the next starter, Lilli would be a super-sub in the OF. Escobar basically replaces Vizquel with room to grow, Kuhn adds mad flexibility.

 

C - Tyler Flowers

1B/OF - Brent Lillibridge

SS/2B - Eduardo Escobar

3B/SS/2B/OF - Tyler Kuhn

 

IF Dunn, Rios, and Gordon find out how to hit again, and Morel continues his September Surge into next year, that lineup could be enough to carry that rotation with Buehrle, Peavy 18 months from surgery, Humber and Sale building innings, and a Rook.

 

Edit: I really like KHP's idea of giving Q 2 years to trade him at the deadline. Theoretically, also hold onto Ohman, Thornton, Crain for that.

Edited September 30, 2011 by Quinarvy

[caulfield12]

Well, the other problem is let's say Quentin asked for $17-19 million over 2 years (second year to buy him out of first year of FA).

 

With his injury history, it's just as likely he could end up being a drain on the payroll. You're taking a big gamble assuming he would be the most marketable bat on the market. Certainly, he COULD be, but is it another payroll risk Williams/JR are willing to take?

 

A lot depends on what were the legitimate offers for Quentin that were bypassed by KW in June/July.

 

The other kid acquired from the Marlins (Oswaldo) has to figure into the battle with Escobar for the infield/utilty spot being vacated by Omar Vizquel.

 

And you just MIGHT want to have one veteran on the bench. That's a pretty youthful group of 4.

 

 

[Quin]

Well, the other problem is let's say Quentin asked for $17-19 million over 2 years (second year to buy him out of first year of FA).

 

With his injury history, it's just as likely he could end up being a drain on the payroll. You're taking a big gamble assuming he would be the most marketable bat on the market. Certainly, he COULD be, but is it another payroll risk Williams/JR are willing to take?

 

A lot depends on what were the legitimate offers for Quentin that were bypassed by KW in June/July.

 

The other kid acquired from the Marlins (Oswaldo) has to figure into the battle with Escobar for the infield/utilty spot being vacated by Omar Vizquel.

 

And you just MIGHT want to have one veteran on the bench. That's a pretty youthful group of 4.

 

I want Martinez to try and be groomed into a starting SS in Charlotte.

 

Lilli isn't young anymore. He's 28.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'd try to go 2 years on CQ before dealing him just because maybe there's something there. CQ is coming off a decent year for himself, but it wasn't the kind of year he (and his agent) were probably hoping for, nor was it a bad year by any means. Because there's the injury history I doubt you want to go 3+ years on Carlos guaranteed, but maybe he and his agent would be amenable to some extra security in a second year, which could allow the Sox to possibly pay him less in 2012 than he'd get in arb alone.

 

And then, if it's possible, you can protect Carlos by hiding him in LF and using him as a DH quite a bit. If he's healthy enough to put up numbers you can move him later for at least a somewhat decent prospect (which is kind of what I think he'd bring now) with the upside being you may be able to pull a haul.

 

Of course, there's definitely risk there too. Maybe I'm understating CQ's value to other teams also. If someone out there is willing to give up a really nice-looking arm for him who profiles as a starter and is less than 2 years away, I would move him to be clear of the risk and cash in now. I'm not sure other teams would think he's worth that though.

[Real]

AJ can veto a trade, he's 10/5 with the Sox. And Sale will be an Ace mid-year? he'll have a dead arm by august if he's a starter.

[caulfield12]

AJ can veto a trade, he's 10/5 with the Sox. And Sale will be an Ace mid-year? he'll have a dead arm by august if he's a starter.

 

If Mark's gone (along with Ozzie), I don't think AJ would want to stick around if he didn't feel wanted any longer.

 

The only connection to the past with this team would be JR, Konerko and Cooper.

 

He's one of the most competitive guys on the team as well...AJ SEEMINGLY would rather play somewhere where he could win right away than waiting for 2-3 years as KW is projecting, 2014 as the year to "go for it" again.

 

 

As far as Sale goes, yeah, (witness the Humber and Stewart IP trends this year) that's a big issue for Chris going forward.

Edited September 30, 2011 by caulfield12

[gosox41]

Sox Seem Resigned to Rebuilding

 

 

Kenny pretty blunt about it too with some choice quotes. I for one am looking forward to a rebuild, even though I'm not sure Kenny is the one to be in charge of it. Bring it on.

 

 

This is hard to say knowing how aggressive KW is, but he doesn't have the stones to go for a full fledged rebuild and do what needs to be done. I know it's more complicated then that, but I expect minor rebuilding at most.

 

He could have started rebuilding in 2007 and 2009 and didn't have the guts to pull it off then. In 2009, he added vets.

 

 

Bob

[Milkman delivers]

I think people are expecting too much out of Axelrod, Lindsay, Santiago, Marinez, Stewart, and Martinez. Seriously, some of those guys are complete crap right now.

[Balta1701]

I think people are expecting too much out of Axelrod, Lindsay, Santiago, Marinez, Stewart, and Martinez. Seriously, some of those guys are complete crap right now.

If we wind up with 1 starter and 1 bullpen guy/bench guy out of that list, we're in decent shape.

[The Ginger Kid]

I love the sig, but where it the Miami Vice pink shirt to match Ozzie's?

how sweet would that be