2011-12 White Sox off season catch all thread

[greg775]

Greg, what solution do you have to the Dunn/Rios dilemma? Bench both of them for the entire season?

 

They're not building around Dunn and Rios anyway, they're building around the pitching staff (outside of Peavy/Thornton/Floyd) as well as Morel, Beckham, Viciedo, DeAza, Flowers, Lillibridge, etc.

 

Hopefully Mitchell or Walker emerge as a future leadoff hitter (CF/LF). Escobar and Martinez for the middle INF.

 

Marinez (from FLA) hasn't been mentioned often as a bullpen candidate very often, but he figures into that equation well...as he could allow Stewart/Axelrod/Santiago and Molina to get valuable "maturation" experience as a starter in the minors.

 

I'm all for playing Dunn/Rios and seeing if they can turn it around. My point is since we're stuck with them I'm in favor of tinkering, not rebuilding.

[Balta1701]

Teams can try to rebuild while having several terrible contracts. See: the current Astros. Whether what were doing will work better than the slow complete overhaul, only time will tell.

[justBLAZE]

Teams can try to rebuild while having several terrible contracts. See: the current Astros. Whether what were doing will work better than the slow complete overhaul, only time will tell.

 

Depends on how you define successful, I mean let's say they win the division and exit after 1st round?

[2nd_city_saint787]

has it been discussed on here somewhere what the lineup would be if Qs not traded??

 

if rios is the rios from last year do they bench him? If rios is 2010 rios who leads off??

 

Which would be your ideal lineup next year if Q stays?

 

1. De aza 2. Gordo 3. PK 4. dunn 5 Q 6 Dayan 7 AJ 8 lexi 9. morel

 

or if we get the good rios

 

1. Lexi 2 gordo 3 pk 4 dunn 5 Q 6 dayan 7 AJ 8 rios 9 morel

 

 

[Balta1701]

Depends on how you define successful, I mean let's say they win the division and exit after 1st round?

That'd be stellar. I'd be thrilled.

[Eminor3rd]

Man, we gotta trade Quentin, no matter which 'direction' Krazy Kenny decides upon.

[spiderman]

has it been discussed on here somewhere what the lineup would be if Qs not traded??

 

if rios is the rios from last year do they bench him? If rios is 2010 rios who leads off??

 

Which would be your ideal lineup next year if Q stays?

 

1. De aza 2. Gordo 3. PK 4. dunn 5 Q 6 Dayan 7 AJ 8 lexi 9. morel

 

or if we get the good rios

 

1. Lexi 2 gordo 3 pk 4 dunn 5 Q 6 dayan 7 AJ 8 rios 9 morel

 

De Aza is likely to be the lead-off hitter unless he shows he can't do the job, but if Quentin does come back, they would rotate the 4 OF (Rios, Quentin, De Aza, and Viceido) not to mention Dunn as Ventura suggested and Lillibridge. So, it's probably a crowded OF even without him.

 

I don't see how Beckham can hit any higher than 8 or 9 unless he proves he can hit major league pitching. Personally, I would love to see Lillibridge get a chance to win the job in spring training, but I don't know if he'll get that chance with him being seen as a valuable utility type.

 

Konerko will be 3rd and Dunn will be 4th to open the season, and Viceido will probably bat 5th depending on where Rios is.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Doing some more number crunching, did anyone noticed Peavy put up a 2.9 WAR in only 18 starts? That's the same WAR that Danks put up. According to Fangraphs, market value for that 2.9 WAR is $13M. Peavy made $16M.

 

I didn't realize how little Peavy actually hurt us last year. I was under the assumption he put up something like a 1.5 WAR in his half season. But really, his 2011 wasn't bad at all, and almost provided fair value. Extrapolate his numbers to a full 33-game season (yeah, yeah, I know, dangerous thinking), and that would have given him a 5.3 WAR, good for 12th best in baseball, right in front of Matt Cain.

[Balta1701]

Doing some more number crunching, did anyone noticed Peavy put up a 2.9 WAR in only 18 starts? That's the same WAR that Danks put up. According to Fangraphs, market value for that 2.9 WAR is $13M. Peavy made $16M.

 

I didn't realize how little Peavy actually hurt us last year. I was under the assumption he put up something like a 1.5 WAR in his half season. But really, his 2011 wasn't bad at all, and almost provided fair value. Extrapolate his numbers to a full 33-game season (yeah, yeah, I know, dangerous thinking), and that would have given him a 5.3 WAR, good for 12th best in baseball, right in front of Matt Cain.

If it makes you feel better, in bWAR, he was only worth 1.2 bWAR last year and 1.4 bWAR the year before.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

If it makes you feel better, in bWAR, he was only worth 1.2 bWAR last year and 1.4 bWAR the year before.

 

I'm not very familiar with bWAR.

[Balta1701]

I'm not very familiar with bWAR.

Baseball Reference has their own version of WAR from fangraphs. I'd assume they weight different stats differently to come up with their numbers. In like 80% of the players they agree pretty well, but then occasionally there's a large divergence, and 2 WAR is a pretty big divergence in the case of Peavy.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Baseball Reference has their own version of WAR from fangraphs. I'd assume they weight different stats differently to come up with their numbers. In like 80% of the players they agree pretty well, but then occasionally there's a large divergence, and 2 WAR is a pretty big divergence in the case of Peavy.

 

Interesting. I wonder if maybe fWAR relies more on peripherals (Peavy's were great in 2011, his best since 2005), and bWAR relies more on innings pitched (only 111)?

[DirtySox]

White Sox are Stuck in the Middle

The White Sox cleared payroll this weekend, trading Carlos Quentin and Jason Frasor to the Padres and the Blue Jays, respectively. As Eno Sarris predicted a month ago, Chicago didn’t get spectacular returns for either player. But the question still remains — why aren’t the White Sox tearing it all down and starting over? The answer might be because they can’t.

 

Long before the White Sox signed John Danks to a contract extension, the team had several veterans locked up not only through 2012, but into 2013 as well:

 

- Jake Peavy: ’12: $17M, ’13: $22M or $4M buyout

- Adam Dunn: ’12: $14M, ’13:$15M, ’14:$15M

- Alex Rios: ’12: $12M, ’13: $12.5M, ’14:$12.5M, ’15:$13.5M or $1M buyout

- Paul Konerko: ’12: $12M, ’13: $13.5M

- Gavin Floyd: ’12: $7M, ’13: $9.5M club option

- A.J. Pierzynski: ’12: $6M

- Matt Thornton: ’12: $5.5M, ’13: $5.5M, ’14: $6M or $1M buyout

- Alexei Ramirez: ’12:$5M, ’13:$7M, ’14:$9.5M, ’15:$10M, ’16:$10M club option

- Jesse Crain: ’12: $4.5M, ’13: $4.5M

- Will Ohman: ’12: $2.5M

- Dayan Viciedo: ’12: $2.5M

 

Throw in Danks’ salary, and that’s $96 million committed to 12 players for next season. Assuming Floyd’s relatively modest option is picked up and Peavy’s gargantuan one is declined, the are committed to $85.75 million for eight players in 2013 (including the $4 million for Peavy’s buyout). That’s a good chunk of change. What complicates matters further is that many of the contracts are undesirable. Could the White Sox move Crain and Thornton? Sure, but at those prices they probably wouldn’t get much unless they ate most of the salary, something they have not yet done in their dealings this winter. Peavy, Ohman and Pierzynski only have one year left on their deals, so they likely wouldn’t fetch much, either. Rios and Dunn are probably impossible to trade, which leaves Ramirez, Konerko, Danks and Floyd.

 

It seems unlikely that the White Sox would trade Danks so quickly after signing him to an extension; then again that’s how they did Sergio Santos, so I guess there’s a precedent there. Still, Chicago hasn’t made it known publicly that they’re interested in dealing him. They need Viciedo in right field now that Quentin is a Friar, and Ramirez has only been the team’s best player the past two seasons. This leaves only Konerko and Floyd as players who could fetch a reasonable bounty and that the team might be able to survive without. Floyd, in particular, is interesting, especially now that the team has acquired new rotation candidates in Nestor Molina, Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. But even if the Sox trade Floyd, they might still be stuck with their other high-priced veterans.

 

Playing with what they have certainly isn’t appealing. The pitching staff was good last year — the team’s pitching WAR was second-best in the major leagues, and their staff FIP (3.66, sixth overall) and xFIP (3.69, fifth) were both exemplary. But with three of the top seven pitchers from last season (Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Santos) gone, Chicago will be hard-pressed to duplicate that quality. Zach Stewart and Addison Reed could help stem the tide, but they’re greenhorns, as is Chris Sale in his new role as a starter.

 

The offense on the other hand, will have a hard time pulling its weight — even more so now that Quentin has been traded. The White Sox team 89 wRC+ tied for 23rd last year, and even an optimistic projection would put them league-average, at best. Even if Dunn and Rios bounce back, the team should see regression from both Alejandro De Aza and Brent Lillibridge — and perhaps some from Konerko as well, though I’ve stopped trying to predict when Konerko (with his .362, .415 and .383 wOBA’s the past three seasons) will stop hitting. In that sense, it becomes a little easier to understand why the White Sox would be interested in Yeonis Cespedes, even though the move could greatly increase bloating on an already bloated roster. Yes, Cespedes is risky, but the bar in center field is low and the Sox might be stuck for the next couple of years. If they could sign Cespedes to a short-term deal, the move might make sense (assuming they’re willing to bench Rios).

 

The White Sox are in an incredibly unenviable spot. They’re not a good team, they have a lot of money committed to veterans and the team might not be able to significantly restock their farm system even if they do trade or sell them all. It’s not a one-year thing either, as the Sox have a lot of money already tied up for the 2013 season. Things could finally bottom out in 2014, but it might not happen then either if they trade the savings they got from the Quentin and Frasor deals and tie it up in another big commitment with Cespedes. This team will have to bottom out at some point, but with so much money already committed for 2012, it might be worth seeing if the offense rebounds enough to keep them in contention in a shallow American League Central. It’s a risky proposition, but when you’re stuck in the middle, there’s no easy way out.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...-in-the-middle/

 

 

Dude doesn't know that Danks has a NTC this year, but otherwise it's a pretty accurate assessment I'd say.

[witesoxfan]

Interesting. I wonder if maybe fWAR relies more on peripherals (Peavy's were great in 2011, his best since 2005), and bWAR relies more on innings pitched (only 111)?

 

This is generally correct. fWAR focuses on defensive independent statistics when looking at the quality of a pitcher. They believe that it is a better and more consistent way of looking at pitching. bWAR focuses mostly on what a pitcher actually does, including what the defense does. Peavy put up a 4.92 ERA last year but a 3.21 FIP and 3.52 xFIP. It makes sense that his bWAR is terrible but his fWAR is high. I'm expecting a nice bounceback season from him this year.

[flavum]

Chris Sale interview...

 

http://siriusxmsports.posterous.com/chris-...iscussed-why-jo

[chw42]

If it makes you feel better, in bWAR, he was only worth 1.2 bWAR last year and 1.4 bWAR the year before.

 

I felt like Peavy was a victim of untimely hits last season. I think fWAR is a lot more indicative of the talent he still has.

Edited January 2, 2012 by chw42

[Balta1701]

I felt like Peavy was a victim of untimely hits last season. I think fWAR is a lot more indicative of the talent he still has.

I wouldn't call them "Untimely", I'd call them "incredibly predictable". Once he got to 75 pitches, he fell apart. Had some bad starts, but people hit .358 against him wiht an .860 OPS after 75 pitches. He got to 75 pitches and he was ready to come out. He just had a manager who refused to see that.

 

Man, this guy's stats are ridiculous. On normal, 4 days rest last year, Peavy gave up an OPS of .896. On 5+ days rest, it was about .670. It's almost as if he was recovering from an injury and would tire easily.

[justBLAZE]

http://twitter.com/JermaineDye FYI.

[Kalapse]

http://twitter.com/JermaineDye FYI.

Seems active and interesting. Oh, and if you're not following Brandon McCarthy do yourself a favor follow him now, not only was he a key member of the '05 team's championship run but he's the best athlete on twitter, IMO.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Seems active and interesting. Oh, and if you're not following Brandon McCarthy do yourself a favor follow him now, not only was he a key member of the '05 team's championship run but he's the best athlete on twitter, IMO.

 

 

Hahaha.

 

BMcCarthy32 Brandon McCarthy

I mean, I want to stop laughing everytime they say 'penetration' during a football game, but I just don't see it happening.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

So who will be the first Sox player to rock this song? I figured the obvious answer would be Teahen, but he is not here.

 

My money is on Lillibridge. Maybe Adam Dunn, but I doubt he will stray from a country song.

 

 

PS: I did you all a favor by not posting the music video version. Trust me, you DO NOT want to see the music video.......

 

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...but now you're curious! Haha, suckers.

[SoxAce]

So who will be the first Sox player to rock this song? I figured the obvious answer would be Teahen, but he is not here.

 

My money is on Lillibridge. Maybe Adam Dunn, but I doubt he will stray from a country song.

 

 

PS: I did you all a favor by not posting the music video version. Trust me, you DO NOT want to see the music video.......

 

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...but now you're curious! Haha, suckers.

 

Who hasn't seen the video? (Well... who isn't over 30?) Dunno if they will put that on with kids in the park either other than the instrumental version of it.

Edited January 3, 2012 by SoxAce

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Who hasn't seen the video? (Well... who isn't over 30?) Dunno if they will put that on with kids in the park either other than the instrumental version of it.

 

Haven't they played "I'm too sexy" before? Or whatever that song is where the singer is apparently too sexy for his shirt.

[SoxAce]

Haven't they played "I'm too sexy" before? Or whatever that song is where the singer is apparently too sexy for his shirt.

 

You might be right. Not when I've been there, but for the people who have season tickets who have been to more games can probably chime in on that better than I can.

[southsider2k5]

Posted for no other reason than we know the Sox have had interest in the recent past.

 

ChiTribRogers Phil Rogers

Coco Crisp, rumored to be signing soon, fits w/#whitesox, who spent weekend clearing salary. Does KW trust Alejandro de Aza?