southsider2k5 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 07:52 AM) So what happens if, because of his injury, the trade pieces aren't very good or you even have to chip in some cash? You don't think someone would pay Carlos's salary to have him? LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:03 AM) You don't think someone would pay Carlos's salary to have him? LOL. I might pay the $7 mil or so in arbitration he'd get...but if I'm paying that you're not getting my top prospect. Or even a good one. If he performed exactly as he did last year, in the fangraphs world, he'd generate $11 million worth of WAR. I'd be paying $7 million for that, and probably wind up with a sandwich pick out of it assuming the rules don't change with this CBA (Which they're likely to do anyway). But he's shown no sign of the 2008 dominance since that year, and the last 2 years he was a negative value player...so I'm gambling $7 million on a guy who for 2 of the last 3 seasons has been almost useless. The only way you're getting me as a GM to give up a legit player for him is to pay some of the salary yourself so that I don't have to risk paying him to be on the DL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 08:09 AM) I might pay the $7 mil or so in arbitration he'd get...but if I'm paying that you're not getting my top prospect. Or even a good one. If he performed exactly as he did last year, in the fangraphs world, he'd generate $11 million worth of WAR. I'd be paying $7 million for that, and probably wind up with a sandwich pick out of it assuming the rules don't change with this CBA (Which they're likely to do anyway). But he's shown no sign of the 2008 dominance since that year, and the last 2 years he was a negative value player...so I'm gambling $7 million on a guy who for 2 of the last 3 seasons has been almost useless. The only way you're getting me as a GM to give up a legit player for him is to pay some of the salary yourself so that I don't have to risk paying him to be on the DL. So....why again are we trading him then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:42 AM) So....why again are we trading him then? So that we don't have 5 people in the OF next year who need to be starting is the best answer I can give. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 08:09 AM) I might pay the $7 mil or so in arbitration he'd get...but if I'm paying that you're not getting my top prospect. Or even a good one. If he performed exactly as he did last year, in the fangraphs world, he'd generate $11 million worth of WAR. I'd be paying $7 million for that, and probably wind up with a sandwich pick out of it assuming the rules don't change with this CBA (Which they're likely to do anyway). But he's shown no sign of the 2008 dominance since that year, and the last 2 years he was a negative value player...so I'm gambling $7 million on a guy who for 2 of the last 3 seasons has been almost useless. The only way you're getting me as a GM to give up a legit player for him is to pay some of the salary yourself so that I don't have to risk paying him to be on the DL. Except teams were willing to give up pretty decent players for him just a few months ago, and now you have the full complement of teams to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 08:44 AM) So that we don't have 5 people in the OF next year who need to be starting is the best answer I can give. Q/Rios/Dayan with Rios benched for Aza if he blows ass again. Who's the 5th starter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:07 AM) Except teams were willing to give up pretty decent players for him just a few months ago, and now you have the full complement of teams to work with. And fewer "Quentin Shoulders". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 08:09 AM) I might pay the $7 mil or so in arbitration he'd get...but if I'm paying that you're not getting my top prospect. Or even a good one. If he performed exactly as he did last year, in the fangraphs world, he'd generate $11 million worth of WAR. I'd be paying $7 million for that, and probably wind up with a sandwich pick out of it assuming the rules don't change with this CBA (Which they're likely to do anyway). But he's shown no sign of the 2008 dominance since that year, and the last 2 years he was a negative value player...so I'm gambling $7 million on a guy who for 2 of the last 3 seasons has been almost useless. The only way you're getting me as a GM to give up a legit player for him is to pay some of the salary yourself so that I don't have to risk paying him to be on the DL. Yeah, but your opinion is extremely skewed. Teams were willing to part with very good talent for him at the deadline and they will again in the offseason. You just posted why when you went to WAR. Not every team has an up and coming power righthanded bat to just plug into the OF like we do. If you dont believe me, check out what Jayson Werth got last offseason. Quentin is 3 years younger. Edited October 6, 2011 by RockRaines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:18 AM) Yeah, but your opinion is extremely skewed. Teams were willing to part with very good talent for him at the deadline and they will again in the offseason. You just posted why when you went to WAR. Not every team has an up and coming power righthanded bat to just plug into the OF like we do. If you dont believe me, check out what Jayson Werth got last offseason. Quentin is 3 years younger. Jayson Werth had put up 3.5 straight seasons of health and OPS's over 860, culminating in a .921 OPS the year before he hit free agency, in addition to being viewed as a plus defender. Carlos Quentin has finished 0 full seasons in his last 4. He has never played more than 131 games in a season. His average OPS over the last 4 years is .857, but over the last 3 years it's .815. ANd he's viewed as a defensive negative, even if he was our best fielder in the OF this year. If you're trading for Carlos Quentin, you're hoping for a .950 OPS and a full season. You're much more likely to get an .830 OPS and 2/3 of a season...and there's just as good of a chance of him missing most/all of the year as there is of him putting up a .900 OPS. It's like putting Jake Peavy in your rotation...you better have a backup plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 And Hell...he might not even be healthy at the time of the trade. Any GM trading for him better demand a physical on that shoulder, with a full MRI and everything else that is allowed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:30 AM) And Hell...he might not even be healthy at the time of the trade. Any GM trading for him better demand a physical on that shoulder, with a full MRI and everything else that is allowed. The haul we'll get for him is shaping up to be epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:35 AM) The haul we'll get for him is shaping up to be epic. If Kenny Williams gets a decent haul for him, I will be impressed and applaud Kenny Williams. I'm still content with his performance in dumping Jackson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:18 AM) Yeah, but your opinion is extremely skewed. Teams were willing to part with very good talent for him at the deadline and they will again in the offseason. You just posted why when you went to WAR. Not every team has an up and coming power righthanded bat to just plug into the OF like we do. If you dont believe me, check out what Jayson Werth got last offseason. Quentin is 3 years younger. Big power bats are always in demand. Hell all it takes is one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Oct 5, 2011 -> 08:27 PM) Only KW knows for sure, but it will be a crime if CQ is traded Have you even looked at Carlos Quentin's statistics? He's had one outlier season, the rest is highly-replaceable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Jayson Werth had put up 3.5 straight seasons of health and OPS's over 860, culminating in a .921 OPS the year before he hit free agency, in addition to being viewed as a plus defender. Carlos Quentin has finished 0 full seasons in his last 4. He has never played more than 131 games in a season. His average OPS over the last 4 years is .857, but over the last 3 years it's .815. ANd he's viewed as a defensive negative, even if he was our best fielder in the OF this year. If you're trading for Carlos Quentin, you're hoping for a .950 OPS and a full season. You're much more likely to get an .830 OPS and 2/3 of a season...and there's just as good of a chance of him missing most/all of the year as there is of him putting up a .900 OPS. It's like putting Jake Peavy in your rotation...you better have a backup plan. Hitting is way, way down over the past couple years. An .830 OPS in 2011 is a lot better than an .830 OPS in 2006. Only 16 outfielders in all of MLB had both more plate appearances and a better OPS than Carlos in 2011, and most, if not all of those are NOT available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:45 AM) Have you even looked at Carlos Quentin's statistics? He's had one outlier season, the rest is highly-replaceable. So it's one of those deals. We'll get some awesome talent in return cause he's an awesome power bat...but he's really just an average player and we're the only ones who know it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:53 AM) Hitting is way, way down over the past couple years. An .830 OPS in 2011 is a lot better than an .830 OPS in 2006. Only 16 outfielders in all of MLB had both more plate appearances and a better OPS than Carlos in 2011, and most, if not all of those are NOT available. Great post. With the Great Steroid Dropoff, offensive is different today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 09:54 AM) So it's one of those deals. We'll get some awesome talent in return cause he's an awesome power bat...but he's really just an average player and we're the only ones who know it? I'm not expecting anything remotely close to "awesome talent in return". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klaus kinski Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The choke Atlanta pulled off makes him valuable to them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (klaus kinski @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 11:01 AM) The choke Atlanta pulled off makes him valuable to them. If they're planning on benching/sending down Heyward, you'd be correct. Heyward's lack of punch was what killed them in the OF this year. He'd be an upgrade on Prado/Hinske in LF, but those guys are already signed or are arb-eligible, so the team is spending money on them either way, unless you're up for a Prado for Quentin swap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Braves and Cubs were in bottom 10 of MLB in RF OPS, Dodgers were in bottom 10 in LF OPS, and Angels were in bottom 10 in BOTH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 11:10 AM) Braves and Cubs were in bottom 10 of MLB in RF OPS, Dodgers were in bottom 10 in LF OPS, and Angels were in bottom 10 in BOTH. The Braves are there because of Jayson Heyward. Would you bench Jayson Heyward for Carlos Quentin? The Angels have an OF on the way up named Mike Trout. Think they'll bench Trout for Quentin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:10 AM) Braves and Cubs were in bottom 10 of MLB in RF OPS, Dodgers were in bottom 10 in LF OPS, and Angels were in bottom 10 in BOTH. There are always teams willing to take a chance on a bat like that. Even more so if they can mix him in to DH, even though he played a respectable RF this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenksycat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:00 AM) I'm not expecting anything remotely close to "awesome talent in return". I just don't see the point. I don't see his trade value at the beginning of the season coming off an injured shoulder being vastly different than if he produces and gets traded at the deadline if we still suck. We already missed out his peak value last deadline, so why not ride it out, hope he has a monster 1st half and either: we're in the race, or we suck and we can dump him to someone truly desperate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Oct 6, 2011 -> 10:29 AM) I just don't see the point. I don't see his trade value at the beginning of the season coming off an injured shoulder being vastly different than if he produces and gets traded at the deadline if we still suck. We already missed out his peak value last deadline, so why not ride it out, hope he has a monster 1st half and either: we're in the race, or we suck and we can dump him to someone truly desperate. Because we have a cheaper replacement that he would be stealing playing time from and Q+Thornton may = Buehrle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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