What can the Sox realistically expect in a trade for Danks

[macsandz]

I'm trying to determine a little bit if there could be a decent market for guys like Danks, Quentin or Floyd if the Sox deal them this winter. I would think John Danks would bring the most.

 

Teams like BOS or NYY the would pay well for Danks seeing as starting pitching cost them their seasons and they are committed to big contracts. All things considered, does Danks bring a top prospect?

 

For NY -I would look at a guy like Austin Romine © who is blocked by Montero.

As for BOS -Ryan Kalish (OF) is a kid with five tools that plays very had. He's coming of surgery but is projected to be a star. He's blocked by Reddick and Nava.

 

Thoughts?

[OilCan]

Good post.

Teams value a lefty pitcher, so some teams starving for pitching (NYY) may give a little more than a righty (Floyd).

Although both can bring a good bevy of young prospects.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I hope to expect 1 top prospect (BA top 50), 1 good prospect, and 1 "project" prospect.

[max power]

About the same thing as we got for javy.

[Marty34]

I'm trying to determine a little bit if there could be a decent market for guys like Danks, Quentin or Floyd if the Sox deal them this winter. I would think John Danks would bring the most.

 

Teams like BOS or NYY the would pay well for Danks seeing as starting pitching cost them their seasons and they are committed to big contracts. All things considered, does Danks bring a top prospect?

 

For NY -I would look at a guy like Austin Romine © who is blocked by Montero.

As for BOS -Ryan Kalish (OF) is a kid with five tools that plays very had. He's coming of surgery but is projected to be a star. He's blocked by Reddick and Nava.

 

Thoughts?

 

Things would really have to break right for the Sox to get a top prospect for Danks as I don't think he'll be the best pitcher on the trade market. Ordinarily, I like the idea of getting the best prospect prospect regardless of position, in this case though, I really think the Sox need to focus on pitching in any trades they make.

 

Just throwing out a couple of pitchers that aren't top prospects, Hector Nolesco of the Yankees, Felix Doubront of the Red Sox. The Rangers and Braves are two other possibilities for Danks as well.

[Marty34]

I hope to expect 1 top prospect (BA top 50), 1 good prospect, and 1 "project" prospect.

 

I don't see that happening because he can be a free agent after the 2012 season.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

About the same thing as we got for javy.

 

Maybe, I would hope we get more. Flowers, Lillibridge, and Gilmore isn't exactly a haul.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I don't see that happening because he can be a free agent after the 2012 season.

 

I thought he was under team control until the end of the 2013 season.

[DirtySox]

I thought he was under team control until the end of the 2013 season.

 

Nope.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Danks is worth more than Kenny traded to get him (McCarthy+). He's also worth more than Kenny traded Freddy for (Gio + Gavin), and he's worth more than either Jackson deal (Hudson or Stewart-led). He's worth well more than anything we gave up to get Javy (Chris Young heading the package) OR what we got from Atlanta.

 

IMO he is even worth more than what Kenny gave up to get Freddy from Seattle because at that point Freddy was a half-season rental. At the time that was a major haul, so I would go in expecting at least that.

 

The above deal brought Seattle 1 position player who was already at the major league level and who people thought was a potential All-Star in the future (Olivo) + 1 very exiciting prospect who all the national prospect guys seemed to know and love (Reed) + 1 "sky is the limits" type prospect who was far away at the time but who was considered in the end the possible best player in the deal (Michael Morse).

 

We should demand 3 very good pieces. The best case scenario is the Bartolo-to-MON haul of Lee, Sizemore & Phillips, and the worst case is we get 3 extremely talented young prospects with none of them panning out.

 

If the team that comes in with the winning bid doesn't have as big of a headlining piece or secondary piece as we would like then I would expect 4 pieces, and ask for basically the Bedard-to-SEA haul in talent, which was still headlined by Adam Jones.

 

Kenny should get a good amount of talent out of Danks for sure.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Is there a team out there that doesn't at least entertain the thought of trading for Danks? We should have many suitors.

 

Danks and his agent will be watching to see what CJ Wilson gets this winter. After that, I'm sure whoever has Danks will try to lock him up to something similar. The big money teams will definitely be there, but most of the mid-tier spenders will be there as well I think, and even a small market team or two that otherwise wouldn't spend might be interested in making a splash, especially the Miami Marlins with their new stadium.

 

Kenny will have lots of interesting offers, the hard part is deciding which package of talent among several offers the greatest long-term success. Remember the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes? Detroit offered the most raw talent, but going after just raw tools got them nothing. They would have had Danks and Gio if they'd dealt with us, which would have made them a completely different team. Kenny doesn't need to make the "safe" bet, but I do think he needs to try to find a package of talent where these highly physically talented guys don't have too many major mechanical flaws and also appear to be more like natural baseball players than just natural athletes.

[Marty34]

Is there a team out there that doesn't at least entertain the thought of trading for Danks? We should have many suitors.

 

I don't share your optimism. I think prospects will be more valued this offseason than ever before given the many teams that had soft attendance along with the economic issues still facing the country. Here's a list of teams I can see bidding for a SP with one year left before free agency:

 

Yankees

Red Sox

Rangers

Braves

Nationals

Blue Jays

 

I think the Nationals and Jays are outside choices. Problem is I can easily see Danks being no better than the third best starter on the trade market behind Gonzalez and Shields.

Edited October 9, 2011 by Marty34

[elrockinMT]

I don't see that happening because he can be a free agent after the 2012 season.

 

 

Maybe we should keep our pitchers since pitching is the name of the game. Try and sign Danks to an extension

[sircaffey]

The Braves? Hanson, Hudson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Lowe. They are the most pitching rich club in baseball. They are the last team that would be in on Danks.

[EvilMonkey]

Here's a list of teams I can see bidding for a SP with one year left before free agency:

That's why you give the team interested an opportunity to negotiate an extension before the deal.

[Marty34]

The Braves? Hanson, Hudson, Jurrjens, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Lowe. They are the most pitching rich club in baseball. They are the last team that would be in on Danks.

 

You're right. Thought something didn't look right. I mixed up my potential Danks and Quentin suitors.

 

[Soxfest]

Danks for 2 real good specs would be realistic IMO.

[caulfield12]

Danks isn't worth Freddy Garcia in 2004.

 

He would only come close to approximating that value were he willing to sign the same type of favorable/hometown discount contract (obviously not with the Rangers) that Freddy signed to avoid going on the open market, locking him up for 2013/2014 and possibly 2015 seasons.

 

But his year was erratic at best. He's worth a great deal, but obviously not as much as he would have been after 2008 or 2009.

 

Garcia was unquestionably a frontline starter at that point in time. There are lots of question marks about Danks now. Very good left-handed starter, a #3 in many rotations? Sure. But ace, no way.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Danks isn't worth Freddy Garcia in 2004.

 

He would only come close to approximating that value were he willing to sign the same type of favorable/hometown discount contract (obviously not with the Rangers) that Freddy signed to avoid going on the open market, locking him up for 2013/2014 and possibly 2015 seasons.

 

But his year was erratic at best. He's worth a great deal, but obviously not as much as he would have been after 2008 or 2009.

 

Garcia was unquestionably a frontline starter at that point in time. There are lots of question marks about Danks now. Very good left-handed starter, a #3 in many rotations? Sure. But ace, no way.

Disagree.

 

Garcia was unquestionably not a frontline starter at that time. He was a #3 having a very good season and one who had true ace potential, but nowhere near a true ace if that's what you're implying with "frontline starter." Furthermore, Garcia was a righty who had had a bit of an injury history. The Garcia situation was seen as a bit of an overpayment by the Sox, but that was also during the trade deadline with fewer bidders, so being that Danks would be for a full season, and presumably with a pool of 15-20 teams who think they will be contenders in December at the meetings as opposed to a handful of bidders near the deadline, and being that Danks is also a lefty and not quite the extension concern Garcia would have been, in total, I think that Garcia haul would be at least be a pretty fair gauge of Danks' worth.

 

Also, no need for any kind of extension window here. The 2012 season will be the extension window. The main teams for the Sox to target would be Texas (Ryan possibly losing CJ Wilson after losing Cliff Lee will have him wanting to bring the hometown kid back) and the Yankees, who are undoubtedly going to be interested and also unfazed by any of Danks' extension demands.

 

 

[Marty34]

Pure speculation: Yankees get Wilson, Rangers get Shields, and the Royals get Gonzalez. Danks to Red Sox or maybe Nats?

[caulfield12]

Disagree.

 

Garcia was unquestionably not a frontline starter at that time. He was a #3 having a very good season and one who had true ace potential, but nowhere near a true ace if that's what you're implying with "frontline starter." Furthermore, Garcia was a righty who had had a bit of an injury history. The Garcia situation was seen as a bit of an overpayment by the Sox, but that was also during the trade deadline with fewer bidders, so being that Danks would be for a full season, and presumably with a pool of 15-20 teams who think they will be contenders in December at the meetings as opposed to a handful of bidders near the deadline, and being that Danks is also a lefty and not quite the extension concern Garcia would have been, in total, I think that Garcia haul would be at least be a pretty fair gauge of Danks' worth.

 

Also, no need for any kind of extension window here. The 2012 season will be the extension window. The main teams for the Sox to target would be Texas (Ryan possibly losing CJ Wilson after losing Cliff Lee will have him wanting to bring the hometown kid back) and the Yankees, who are undoubtedly going to be interested and also unfazed by any of Danks' extension demands.

 

Daniels wouldn't do that, simply because there's way too big of a risk he would make 2 stupid moves with Danks. Trading him in the first place, then overpaying him to return.

 

Danks isn't even Cliff Lee-Lite, not based on last season.

 

They have younger starters in Holland and Ogando, they're not going to be desperate to overpay for Danks when they can go after a typical 4th/5th guy or even someone like Edwin Jackson who won't cost them anything in talent surrendered.

 

 

[kitekrazy]

I wonder if prospects would be a good thing. I'd prefer to have a guy who is already playing.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Daniels wouldn't do that, simply because there's way too big of a risk he would make 2 stupid moves with Danks. Trading him in the first place, then overpaying him to return.

 

Danks isn't even Cliff Lee-Lite, not based on last season.

 

They have younger starters in Holland and Ogando, they're not going to be desperate to overpay for Danks when they can go after a typical 4th/5th guy or even someone like Edwin Jackson who won't cost them anything in talent surrendered.

I think you are very, very wrong and Nolan is going to target much bigger fish than still-streaky Edwin Jackson. And there's absolutely no reason for a team with a farm system that full of talent to target someone else's 4 or 5, especially when they would have to pay him.

 

Secondly, IIRC the first Danks deal was something Jon Daniels was against but the old ownership group pushed for. There's no reason to believe that Danks, from Round Rock, wouldn't love playing for his home team at a nice price. I see Texas as actually the perfect match.

 

And I think you're also waaaaaaaay the hell off on Danks. He's not Cliff Lee, but Cliff Lee lite? If that means a strong #3 then he sure the f*** is (I would fully argue that there is no such thing as a prototypical #2 starter). He's 26, lefty, and very good. Last year may actually make him more obtainable for other teams, being that his DL stint took him away from the 200IP mark which would have put him way the hell up there as far as pricetag. Of course his ERA was much higher than usual, but the track record is there, the walk rate was a career low, the K rate is over 7 and his best since 2008, the K/BB ratio is by far a career best, and his HR rate is right around his career average. His hit rate was high this year, but I don't think that is going to deter anyone.

 

John Danks is a very good young left-handed starting pitcher and he is going to get paid like a very good young left-handed starting pitcher. If we're not going to be the ones to pay him then we need to trade him, and the return needs to be the type of return that you get from a very good young left-handed pitcher, i.e. not some junk #4 starters or position players who can't hit, and definitely no relievers unless they are ready right now and have absolutely electric stuff, and the balls/makeup to mostly throw it for strikes.

[caulfield12]

I think you are very, very wrong and Nolan is going to target much bigger fish than still-streaky Edwin Jackson. And there's absolutely no reason for a team with a farm system that full of talent to target someone else's 4 or 5, especially when they would have to pay him.

 

Secondly, IIRC the first Danks deal was something Jon Daniels was against but the old ownership group pushed for. There's no reason to believe that Danks, from Round Rock, wouldn't love playing for his home team at a nice price. I see Texas as actually the perfect match.

 

And I think you're also waaaaaaaay the hell off on Danks. He's not Cliff Lee, but Cliff Lee lite? If that means a strong #3 then he sure the f*** is (I would fully argue that there is no such thing as a prototypical #2 starter). He's 26, lefty, and very good. Last year may actually make him more obtainable for other teams, being that his DL stint took him away from the 200IP mark which would have put him way the hell up there as far as pricetag. Of course his ERA was much higher than usual, but the track record is there, the walk rate was a career low, the K rate is over 7 and his best since 2008, the K/BB ratio is by far a career best, and his HR rate is right around his career average. His hit rate was high this year, but I don't think that is going to deter anyone.

 

John Danks is a very good young left-handed starting pitcher and he is going to get paid like a very good young left-handed starting pitcher. If we're not going to be the ones to pay him then we need to trade him, and the return needs to be the type of return that you get from a very good young left-handed pitcher, i.e. not some junk #4 starters or position players who can't hit, and definitely no relievers unless they are ready right now and have absolutely electric stuff, and the balls/makeup to mostly throw it for strikes.

 

 

Danks and Floyd have been both very streaky for the past 3 seasons.

 

If KW could have gotten a Michael Morse/Reed/Olivo-type haul for Danks in July, there's absolutely no way he wouldn't have made that trade.

 

I can't imagine with 2-3 less months of team control why he'd go up in value...due to the W/L record, ERA, DL stint, etc.

Sure, you're probably doubling or tripling the number of teams in the market for Danks, but you're still extremely limited by that $75-90/5 year baseline as his expected contract.

 

Maybe 5 and no more than 7 teams could afford that deal.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I don't share your optimism. I think prospects will be more valued this offseason than ever before given the many teams that had soft attendance along with the economic issues still facing the country. Here's a list of teams I can see bidding for a SP with one year left before free agency:

 

Yankees

Red Sox

Rangers

Braves

Nationals

Blue Jays

 

I think the Nationals and Jays are outside choices. Problem is I can easily see Danks being no better than the third best starter on the trade market behind Gonzalez and Shields.

 

After the BS that went on, I can't see Kenny dealing with Washington unless they throw something huge on the table on their own. Kenny was pretty pissed at the way things worked out with the Nats.