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southsider2k5

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SoxAce Grand Master

SoxAce

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 9, 2011 -> 11:49 AM)
SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman

willie bloomquist has agreed with the #dbacks for $3.8M over 2 yrs, as @ScottMCBSSports said. sfgiants were i mix.

 

Lookout for wite creaming his pants somewhere.

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southsider2k5 Grand Master

southsider2k5

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http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumbli...-prince-fielder

 

It isn't every baseball winter that free-agent mashers such as Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder hit the market at the same time -- at the same position, no less.

 

What you have here is something extraordinary -- something, in fact, that gets more extraordinary the more you think about it.

 

Albert and Prince are two of only five active players who have hit at least 30 home runs in each of the last five seasons. (More on that in our Triviality section.)

 

They're also two of just seven active players with at least 200 career homers, a .900 OPS, a .535 slugging percentage and a .389 on-base percentage. And they're the ONLY two players in that group who are younger than 35.

 

So what are the odds that they'd both be sitting on the shelves of the local Free Agent Supermarket at the very same time? A lot slimmer than the odds of Aaron Miles and Jose Lopez being free agents at the same time. Put it that way.

 

"I really don't remember anything like this," one longtime baseball executive said this week. "You're talking about two of the best first basemen in the game, out there in the same year. That's very unusual."

 

OK, that's the good news for those two guys. Now here's the bad news:

 

"There's only one problem," the same exec said. "They picked the wrong year -- because they don't have the Yankees and the Red Sox, or the Phillies, to jack up their price. And the Mets are on life support."

 

Hey, it's always something, right? Nobody doubts that Pujols and Fielder are going to be very rich humans by the time next season rolls around. But how rich will they get? Where might they end up? And what are the unique twists and turns their contract deliberations could take? Join with us now as Rumblings and Grumblings takes a look at those very questions:

What's the price tag?

 

Rumblings surveyed a dozen executives from clubs that are unlikely to participate in this auction and asked them to predict A) how many years and dollars each player would get, and B) what team would give it to them. Here is what we found:

[+] EnlargeAlbert Pujols

Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesAfter two World Series titles, three MVP awards and 445 home runs in 11 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, it'd be hard to imagine Albert Pujols wearing another uniform.

 

The Pujols prognostications were fascinating. They ranged from 10 years, $300 million to one (mostly tongue-in-cheek) prediction of three years, $90 million. But otherwise, nobody forecast a deal shorter than seven years. And the average contract worked out to 8.5 years, at just over $28 million a year.

 

If that's how it turns out, Pujols would break Alex Rodriguez's record for highest annual value in any multiyear contract in history. And wiping A-Rod off that line in the books is exactly what Sir Albert and his agent, Dan Lozano, have in mind.

 

Over in Prince's neighborhood, half of the guesses came in at precisely seven years, $175 million ($25 million a year on the nose). But several of the other predictions came in at $20 million or $21 million a year. So the consensus was that Fielder would end up with a seven-year deal at between $22 million and $23 million a year.

 

That would leave Prince just south of Mark Teixeira's total contract (eight years, $180 million), the current record for a first baseman. And that's a number Fielder and agent Scott Boras could probably swallow.

 

But it would also rank him considerably below the $25-million-a-year average annual value of Ryan Howard's five-year extension. And why do we have a feeling Boras is determined to beat Howard's AAV if it takes him all winter? Aw, just a hunch.

Where is Pujols going?

 

In Albert's case, this was a landslide. All but one of the execs we polled predicted this guy won't even have to bother forwarding his mail -- because he's not going anywhere (except back to St. Louis). But the AL exec who disagreed (and picked the Cubs) made a case worthy of serious reflection.

 

"I've always had a feeling," he said, "that the people in St. Louis were putting up a front, that, 'We really, really want him back,' but down deep, they wouldn't mind covering their tracks by saying, in the end, that, 'The price just got so high, we couldn't compete.'

 

"If they were always going to do whatever it took to sign him, I don't think they would have done the [Matt] Holliday deal at the level they did it, or some of these other deals they've done. I think they've been positioning themselves to move on. It just seems to me that if they were always willing to step up and do whatever it took, they already would have stepped up and done it."

 

Hmmm. Makes you think. Doesn't it? He just might be right that if there's any other team willing to go eight to 10 years, at $28 to 30 million, the Cardinals might very well wave sayonara. But it's too early in the game to know if those teams are out there, only that the buzz in the industry is that the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers are gearing up to make a run at this man.

 

Are any of those teams -- or others -- ready to allot 25 to 30 percent of the payroll just to Albert? That's what we're about to spend this winter finding out.

Where is Fielder heading?

 

The Prince predictions in our poll were all over the map -- literally: Texas, Seattle, Baltimore, Washington, South Florida and the North Side of Chicago all got votes. The Rangers wound up as the most popular pick, but with only three votes.

[+] EnlargeTBD

AP Photo/David J. PhillipPrince Fielder, who turns 28 on May 9, has missed only one game in the past three seasons, hitting 116 home runs and driving in 343 runs during that span.

 

There are legitimate reasons to connect Prince with all those teams. But if Boras and Fielder are on a mission to sign for at least seven years -- which they are, of course -- logic suggests this fellow would almost have to wind up on an American League roster. Wouldn't he?

 

"Realistically," one agent wondered, "how could a National League team give a guy with a body like that seven or eight years? I think he could get five years at good money from a National League team, but not seven or eight."

 

One baseball executive echoed those sentiments, and not just because of Prince's svelte physique. The other big factor here: "His genes."

 

"Even though he's only 27, which is super young for a guy entering free agency, you have to look beyond that," the exec said. "Anybody who cites his age should also look at his dad."

 

That would be Cecil Fielder, another wide-bodied bopper whose aging pattern could be very instructive for teams looking hard at Prince. Cecil hit 51 homers at age 26 and 44 at age 27 and then never hit 40 again. He also ceased to be a full-time first baseman after 30, never playing more than 80 games in the field in any of his final four seasons. And he was done for good after 34.

 

"Scott is looking for eight years and $200 million for this guy," said an NL executive. "And if that's the price, he'll be the last guy out there. Maybe, in the end, somebody gives him seven [years] times $25 [million]. But even that's scary."

 

Other factors

 

• There's the Battle of the Super-Agents. In one corner, you have Lozano, who could cement his stature as a major force in the agent cosmos by landing a historic contract for Pujols. In the other corner, there's Boras, whose only hope for an eye-popping free-agent deal this winter is a Powerball payout for Fielder. A fun little subplot to watch in these negotiations.

 

TRIVIALITY

Besides Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, only three other players have hit at least 30 home runs in each of the last five seasons. Can you name them? (Answer later.)

 

• There's also the Franchise Changer sales pitch. If you're just looking at signing Albert Pujols the baseball player, you might not give this man eight or 10 years at age 32, no matter how great a player he is. But say you're a team like the Marlins, trying to put your franchise on the map as you move into a new ballpark. Or say you're the Dodgers, desperate to restore the luster of the franchise. Then signing The Best Player in Baseball becomes more than just a baseball transaction. "If I was running the Dodgers, I'd sign Albert Pujols in a heartbeat," one veteran agent said. "He could enhance the value of the franchise by $200-250 million. I know that sounds high, but you have to look at the ability to market [the player], the ability to raise prices. The TV contract alone would go up at least 20 percent. This isn't just another player we're talking about. This is Albert Pujols."

 

• There's the Age Gap factor. OK, so Prince doesn't have Albert's aura. But he's FOUR years younger. So if you sign him, at least you're buying his prime years. You'll be hearing that talk all winter, so get ready. "He's the youngest of the group, and he plays with energy," one NL exec said. "That son of a gun comes to play every day. You can call him fat, or you can call him chunky, or you can call him cakey, but he comes to play. He's quiet. He does his own thing. But he's a producer. And he likes the game. He plays like he likes to play the game. That's a major selling point for the baseball side."

 

• There's the Front-loaded Contract factor. We keep hearing people ask how a team could even think about paying a player like Pujols $28-30 million a year when he gets into his upper 30s. The answer is: You don't have to. "When I look at Albert, I assume he'll still be great for five more years," one longtime exec said. "So you tell him, 'For five years, we'll make you the highest-paid player in the history of the game.' But if he needs a 10-year deal, then the last five years are going to be at $10 million a year, so if worse comes to worse and you need to cut the guy, you can say, 'At least we're only paying him $10 million a year.' So you front load it. But if he's still Albert Pujols at the back end, it's easy to build in incentives that get him back up to $20-30 million a year. It's really not that complicated."

 

• And finally, there's the Grass Isn't Greener portion of this equation. It doesn't apply to Fielder because it's a lock he's leaving Milwaukee. But it might be the biggest force of all in the Pujols negotiations. Maybe there's a team out there that will offer Sir Albert more years and dollars than the Cardinals. But there's a value the Cardinals can offer him that can't be measured in money, said the same longtime exec quoted above. For one thing, staying would make Pujols the Stan Musial of this generation. For another, the exec said, "If he stays in St. Louis, he can start to decline and he'll still be revered. If he goes somewhere else, I can guarantee you one thing: He won't be if he declines. So he should stay in St. Louis and not have to worry about the blowback if he starts to show his age and he's not the same player. There are actually many benefits if he stays. But he needs to recognize that if he feels like he needs to go somewhere else for five more cents, there are consequences."

 

So there sure is a lot for these men -- and the teams chasing them -- to reflect on. Eventually, many dollar bills will change hands. Eventually, they'll both find a home. Eventually, baseball history might very well be made, even if it's only financial history.

 

But in the meantime, we have two great players out there, preparing to get rich and provide us weeks of offseason entertainment and intrigue. Stuff like this doesn't happen every winter, gang. So settle in for a fun, fun ride on Albert and Prince's free-agent roller coaster.

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southsider2k5 Grand Master

southsider2k5

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jcrasnick Jerry Crasnick

The ageless Jamey Carroll is close to signing a multi-year deal in next few days, I'm hearing. He hit .290 in 452 ABs w /#Dodgers

 

jcrasnick Jerry Crasnick

Not sure of team. #Tigers, #Rockies, #Dodgers and #Indians have been mentioned, but other clubs could still be in the mix

 

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southsider2k5 Grand Master

southsider2k5

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 11, 2011 -> 07:54 AM)
jcrasnick Jerry Crasnick

The ageless Jamey Carroll is close to signing a multi-year deal in next few days, I'm hearing. He hit .290 in 452 ABs w /#Dodgers

 

jcrasnick Jerry Crasnick

Not sure of team. #Tigers, #Rockies, #Dodgers and #Indians have been mentioned, but other clubs could still be in the mix

 

Sounds like Toronto

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southsider2k5 Grand Master

southsider2k5

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QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Nov 11, 2011 -> 02:04 PM)
Wasn't there something close to being done with Madson? Thought I saw that both sides were close on an agreement the other day.

 

Supposedly they had a deal done, and the team CEO refused to approve it, though later the Phillies denied that a deal was done.

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