Worst Farm System in Baseball

[Marty34]

The Sox scouts have done IMO a pretty fair job of evaluating MLB level talent in the past few years...although last year's draft isn't impressing yet. Getting MLB level players in rounds 1, 3, and 5 in 2008, a number of guys with promise in 2009 (I still count Mitchell since scouts can't predict an injury like that, Holmberg, Thompson, Phegley again with the injury bug there), Sale and Reed as your starting point for 2010 (2 MLB ready pitchers within a year and a half).

 

Fair enough.

[shakes]

Well I think you're flat out wrong, there is correlation, it's not the only factor but it's a big one. The Angels was once a top spender in the draft and a perennial top system, now they spend some of the least amount and that's reflected in their middle of the road rankings.

 

Just look at how many average to above average MLB teams are ranked highly in system ratings, it's not just draft position, it's buying the players.

 

 

 

I see 5 out of the Top 10 systems as teams that aren't drafting within the top 10 slots, and most of those teams are playoff teams. So how do they do it? It's a combination of 3 main factors: Money in the draft/International Signings/Player Development.

 

And I'm sorry, but this proves nothing. This is one years draft compared to last years ranking? Take a look at the other end of the spectrum. Arizona, Baltimore, Seattle, Pitt, Houston were huge spenders and they are all towards the bottom of the rankings. Take a look at the Yankees system, most of their top prospects come from International signings. Philly has been incredibly good at recognizing talents in later rounds(they have a huge scouting team), not from spending large sums of money. They have been middle of the pack or lower for a while in draft spending.

 

There is a correlation to draft slot and spending. I have yet to see a study that has proved draft spending equaling draft success. All the studies I have seen from BA and BP have shown just the opposite(if I can dig out the publications I will), no direct correlation exists. It has been a hot button topic for people who follow the minor leagues closely, for some time.

 

As you said yourself, scouting/development, International signings, and the draft all play a part. There is no exact formula, throwing a ton of money at the problem can certainly help, but many of the teams who spend huge aren't looking at very good results right now.

 

I agree what the Sox spend is embarassing, but I really believe International signings and player development is a bigger problem. We've already see a change in philosophy, I hope it continues and expands into the Latin American markets.

[Balta1701]

Fair enough.

If you look at our recent drafts...excluding 2006 and before...the Sox have actually had a fairly good record to my eyes...but there are 3 issues currently hurting this org:

 

1. Injuries, and I mean freak injuries. That whole 2009 class seems snakebit.

 

2. Promotions. Sale, Reed, Beckham, Hudson, and Morel all raced up to the show.

 

3. One godawful trade with the D-Backs. (You'll like that one...you can take that as a direct shot at the person who pulled the trigger).

[Balta1701]

Oh, and losing our first round pick last year for a guy who put up one of the worst seasons in MLB history didn't help. Although that still was a remarkable collapse for the guy...that was guaranteed to ding the system.

[Marty34]

3. One godawful trade with the D-Backs. (You'll like that one...you can take that as a direct shot at the person who pulled the trigger).

 

Come on now you know Williams has been incompetent for the last three years. Even Southsider2K5 wouldn't be able to put together a defense for him. He would try though.

[Balta1701]

Come on now you know Williams has been incompetent for the last three years. Even Southsider2K5 wouldn't be able to put together a defense for him. He would try though.

Now look man, this isn't an argument, it's a cheap shot at 2 different people. I just made a case for why our drafting has been acceptable for a period of at least 3-4 years...which would reflect on Kenny Williams...and that's your response?

 

I don't want to defend Kenny, especially for that Hudson trade. But cheap shots always get a response.

[Marty34]

Now look man, this isn't an argument, it's a cheap shot at 2 different people. I just made a case for why our drafting has been acceptable for a period of at least 3-4 years...which would reflect on Kenny Williams...and that's your response?

 

I don't want to defend Kenny, especially for that Hudson trade. But cheap shots always get a response.

 

Come on now. The "you'll like this one ..." was a cheap shot at me!

[danman31]

I agree what the Sox spend is embarassing, but I really believe International signings and player development is a bigger problem. We've already see a change in philosophy, I hope it continues and expands into the Latin American markets.

International signings is a part of spending though.

[Balta1701]

Come on now. The "you'll like this one ..." was a cheap shot at me!

Actually I figured you would like that...it was a direct criticism of Kenny Williams, and you have repeatedly said that this site doesn't criticize Kenny enough.

[NorthSideSox72]

If you look at our recent drafts...excluding 2006 and before...the Sox have actually had a fairly good record to my eyes...but there are 3 issues currently hurting this org:

 

1. Injuries, and I mean freak injuries. That whole 2009 class seems snakebit.

 

2. Promotions. Sale, Reed, Beckham, Hudson, and Morel all raced up to the show.

 

3. One godawful trade with the D-Backs. (You'll like that one...you can take that as a direct shot at the person who pulled the trigger).

A look at what happened to the 2009 class injury-wise, and you will see how that would effect any system...

 

1st round pick: Jared Mitchell, broken ankle/leg in a spring training play

1st round supp pick: Josh Phegley, diagnosed with a rare platelet disorder

2nd round pick: Trayce Thompson, shoulder injury

 

You lose your top 3 players from the first tworounds due to injury, that's going to hammer any system. I believe their sixth pick, Bellamy, also missed a lot of time due to injury.

 

 

[WHITESOXRANDY]

I think of Reed, Stewart, Axelrod, Viciedo, Santiago as prospects but they are all going to be MLB'ers next season.

 

 

You do realize that these are not All-Stars by any stretch ? The only one that MIGHT develop into anything special was an international signing.

 

So, yeah, basically a piss poor system any way that you look at it. The Sox rate of success has to be compared against the other teams in baseball. This is where they pale by comparison.

 

Saying that they have a few guys that might play a few years in the big leagues is nothing. Far far more is expected than that.

[DirtySox]

Rongey currently defending the White Sox draft/amateur spending on Twitter while being refuted by Southside Larry and Jim Margalus. Rongey makes me want to rage. He's just so awful.

 

This gem is particularly cringe worthy.

 

 

ChrisRongey Chris Rongey

I guess they have a choice: spend money on the MLB roster, at the amateur level, or divide evenly.

1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply

 

Yep. Those are the only options.

Edited October 20, 2011 by DirtySox

[Balta1701]

You do realize that these are not All-Stars by any stretch ? The only one that MIGHT develop into anything special was an international signing.

 

So, yeah, basically a piss poor system any way that you look at it. The Sox rate of success has to be compared against the other teams in baseball. This is where they pale by comparison.

 

Saying that they have a few guys that might play a few years in the big leagues is nothing. Far far more is expected than that.

Depends on how you define special. An average LH reliever is a very valuable commodity. An average middle of the rotation starter is a very valuable commodity. An above average RH setup man is a very valuable commodity. And hell...Reed has "all star closer" type stuff, or at least that's what he seemed to have last year.

[RockRaines]

You do realize that these are not All-Stars by any stretch ? The only one that MIGHT develop into anything special was an international signing.

 

So, yeah, basically a piss poor system any way that you look at it. The Sox rate of success has to be compared against the other teams in baseball. This is where they pale by comparison.

 

Saying that they have a few guys that might play a few years in the big leagues is nothing. Far far more is expected than that.

All stars on which team? A bottom of the barrel team or a contending team? Because being voted into the Allstar game isnt really an indicator of talent. Either way we have a few internally developed players that could be considered of that caliber: Alexei, Viciedo (maybe), Sale and Santos.

[southsider2k5]

A look at what happened to the 2009 class injury-wise, and you will see how that would effect any system...

 

1st round pick: Jared Mitchell, broken ankle/leg in a spring training play

1st round supp pick: Josh Phegley, diagnosed with a rare platelet disorder

2nd round pick: Trayce Thompson, shoulder injury

 

You lose your top 3 players from the first tworounds due to injury, that's going to hammer any system. I believe their sixth pick, Bellamy, also missed a lot of time due to injury.

 

And Mitchell and Thompson can still turn it around. If they start getting near their potential that is two really good OF prospects that come on to the scene.

[southsider2k5]

Rongey currently defending the White Sox draft/amateur spending on Twitter while being refuted by Southside Larry and Jim Margalus. Rongey makes me want to rage. He's just so awful.

 

This gem is particularly cringe worthy.

 

 

 

 

Yep. Those are the only options.

 

He is right in the respect that they have spent that money on the major league ball club.

[PolishPrince34]

After we trade TCQ, Danks/Floyd and Thornton? Yeah probably. Plus the numbres 3 and 5 prospects from FLA we already got for Ozzie.

 

By the way, Kalapse brought up the idea that we should try to find a system we feel is worse and make a comparison. I can't honestly say I know a lot of other systems in any depth, but when we were trading Ozzie, I did look at multiple analyses of the Marlins' system. And I am pretty convinced the Sox system is at least better than that one. Just looking at quality level at various points in multiple prospect lists, random sampling of players, the Sox system looks better to me.

 

And I totally agree with those talking about the spending problem. That is the biggest issue, is being so unwilling to properly invest in the draft and in the international market.

 

One other thing to think about... evaluating drafts is a little like evaluating the President. It takes a few years after, to really know how it went. Example? In 2008 and 2009, the Sox system was similarly derided as being one of the worst in baseball. But the following players entered the Sox system (draft, trade or NDFA) in 2008:

 

Gordon Beckham (drafted, MLB starter)

Brent Morel (drafted, MLB starter)

Dan Hudson (drafted, MLB starter)

Charlie Leesman (drafted, talked about as being on the cusp of MLB)

Tyler Kuhn (drafted, possible Sox utility man in 2012)

Brandon Short (drafted, Playing AFL, borderline MLB talent)

Terry Doyle (drafted, playing AFL, getting attention)

Tyler Flowers (via trade)

Brent Lillibridge (via trade)

Dan Remenowsky (NDFA pickup, now on the cusp)

 

That's pretty impressive for one org in one year, at three years later. Three guys starting in the majors, two more playing in the majors, and a handful of other guys who have a good shot to make it. And I don't think it was recognized just how impressive it was, until at least 2010.

 

Now if the Sox can just invest in the system a little more, it seems like maybe the org has the right development staff in place down there.

I find it comical you mention all those names: The only player that is a worthy player on a playoff contention team that was drafted was Daniel Hudson and we traded him away when he had 6 years of service time before becoming a free agent. The White Sox will never be a playoff team with players in your lineup such as Morel, Beckham, Axelrod, Short, and Flowers unless your using them as a backup. Our development of Beckham is a prime example of how we ruined this player. Look at what his swing has turned into the last 2 years.

 

[PolishPrince34]

And Mitchell and Thompson can still turn it around. If they start getting near their potential that is two really good OF prospects that come on to the scene.

Josh Phegley just tore his ACL getting prepared for AFL. That's why Michael Blank took over his spot. Phegley is bascially done with our organiztion because the huge liability on him is his defense. You can't have 2 horrible defenders behind the plate with him and Flowers.

[southsider2k5]

Josh Phegley just tore his ACL getting prepared for AFL. That's why Michael Blank took over his spot. Phegley is bascially done with our organiztion because the huge liability on him is his defense. You can't have 2 horrible defenders behind the plate with him and Flowers.

 

I left Phegley out on purpose. I can't imagine him overcoming that plus the other problems and still making it.

[Balta1701]

I find it comical you mention all those names: The only player that is a worthy player on a playoff contention team that was drafted was Daniel Hudson and we traded him away when he had 6 years of service time before becoming a free agent. The White Sox will never be a playoff team with players in your lineup such as Morel, Beckham, Axelrod, Short, and Flowers unless your using them as a backup. Our development of Beckham is a prime example of how we ruined this player. Look at what his swing has turned into the last 2 years.

And yet, if you look at the numbers for Morel and Flowers in the 2nd half of the year, they compare favorably to others at that position around the league. Flowers put up a .709 OPS as a rookie, AJ put up a .728 OPS. Brent Morel in the 2nd half put up a .759 OPS, which combined with his defense would make him one of the better 3b's in the AL.

 

this is, of course, one of my pet peeves. Taking a guy who is a rookie who clearly needs development time and just assuming that they will never improve, that their numbers for their first 50 PA's are going to reflect their entire career. Hell, Axelrod was actually quite effective for this team, and the team isn't exactly relying on him to be their next #1 starter.

 

[southsider2k5]

And yet, if you look at the numbers for Morel and Flowers in the 2nd half of the year, they compare favorably to others at that position around the league. Flowers put up a .709 OPS as a rookie, AJ put up a .728 OPS. Brent Morel in the 2nd half put up a .759 OPS, which combined with his defense would make him one of the better 3b's in the AL.

 

this is, of course, one of my pet peeves. Taking a guy who is a rookie who clearly needs development time and just assuming that they will never improve, that their numbers for their first 50 PA's are going to reflect their entire career. Hell, Axelrod was actually quite effective for this team, and the team isn't exactly relying on him to be their next #1 starter.

 

Especially when you watch the World Series and see Nick Punto in the starting line up for a team.

[Marty34]

Especially when you watch the World Series and see Nick Punto in the starting line up for a team.

 

Albert Pujols covers up a few problems I'd say.

[southsider2k5]

Albert Pujols covers up a few problems I'd say.

 

That wasn't the point though. Go back and read the Polish Princes post about player worthy of playing on playoff teams.

[SoxAce]

Albert Pujols covers up a few problems I'd say.

 

He covers up about 2-3 starter players problems. I'll steal a south park quote, there is always a "turd in the punch bowl" in the W.S. (possibly two)

[Marty34]

And yet, if you look at the numbers for Morel and Flowers in the 2nd half of the year, they compare favorably to others at that position around the league. Flowers put up a .709 OPS as a rookie, AJ put up a .728 OPS. Brent Morel in the 2nd half put up a .759 OPS, which combined with his defense would make him one of the better 3b's in the AL.

 

this is, of course, one of my pet peeves. Taking a guy who is a rookie who clearly needs development time and just assuming that they will never improve, that their numbers for their first 50 PA's are going to reflect their entire career. Hell, Axelrod was actually quite effective for this team, and the team isn't exactly relying on him to be their next #1 starter.

 

Axelrod, come on. He'll be 27 next year and is nothing more than bullpen filler on a contending team. How many other minor league systems would even give mention of a guy like Axelrod?