Could Sox trade AJ?

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...21819678929-914

 

JJ STANKEVITZ

csnchicago.png

Yesterday, I broached the idea that A.J. Pierzynski could be traded this winter if the Sox look to cut salary and go with a young roster. Tyler Flowers didn't have an incredibly impressive 2011, but the power he showed in Charlotte plus his better-than-Pierzynski defense could give the White Sox reason to explore a trade of their longtime catcher.

 

A trade of Pierzynski has a number of pre-requisites, the first of which is the Sox having faith in Flowers to be the team's starting catcher in 2012. The jury is very much still out on Flowers, who struck out in nearly one-third of his Triple-A plate appearances this season. But he hit 15 home runs and posted a fantastic OBP of .390 with a .500 slugging percentage, encouraging numbers for a guy who posted a .768 OPS for Charlotte in 2010.

 

Defensively, Flowers has proved to be better than Pierzynski -- how much better is up for debate -- featuring a stronger, more accurate arm. He seems to handle the staff well enough, although Pierzynski has an edge in knowledge of opponents given his 14-year major league career.

 

So, for argument's sake, let's assume the Sox want to give Flowers a chance to prove he's more than a backup catcher at best. The next step, then, would be finding a suitor for Pierzynski.

 

There seems to be quite a bit of disagreement on Pierzynski's value -- as an aside, in a lot of ways, he's the Michael Young of the White Sox. He's a high-average hitter who plays poor defense but draws a lot of praise for his veteran leadership -- just like Young with Texas, although on a much smaller scale.

 

The main difference between Pierzynski and Young is that Pierzynski has been worth the value of his salary since joining the Sox, while Young hasn't lived up to his bloated contract.

 

As a hitter, Pierzynski is tenuously average. His .323 on-base percentage was two points above the MLB average last year, and his .405 slugging percentage was six points above average. But he'll be 35 in 2012, and it's reasonable to expect some age-related drop in his numbers.

 

He'll earn $6 million in 2012, although he can still manage to be worth that money even with an age-related drop in production. Without any good backstop options on the free agent market this winter, there probably will be interest from teams looking for a veteran presence behind the plate.

 

But even if there's interest and the Sox want to give Flowers a chance, it won't necessarily mean they'll deal Pierzynski.

 

Kenny Williams has said he's only looking for major league-ready talent in return for anybody he deals this offseason -- an unrealistic goal if he's looking to deal a 35-year-old catcher who rates out to be roughly average.

 

And then there's the matter of PR. Carlos Quentin, John Danks and Gavin Floyd all have suitable replacements waiting in the wings (Dayan Viciedo, Chris Sale). Flowers is a questionable replacement, and replacing Pierzynski with him could send the wrong message to fans who aren't expecting a rebuilding project. Plus, Pierzynski is an undeniable fan favorite.

 

So even if everything seems to set up for a trade of Pierzynski this offseason, it doesn't seem likely the Sox will jump at the opportunity.

 

If the Sox do hang on to Pierzynski and then falter through the first three months of the 2012 season, don't expect him to be dealt before the deadline. Williams has only traded three veterans away for prospects before the July 31 trade deadline since 2001, with Ray Durham going to Oakland in 2002, Tadahito Iguchi going to Philadelphia in 2007 and Rob Mackowiak going to San Diego in 2007.

 

Of course, the Sox have only had one truly bad year under Williams, with that being the 90-loss 2007 campaign. And even in 2007, there was hope for the future, and by holding on to Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle the Sox won the division in 2008.

 

Hanging on to Pierzynski could yield some good compensation after 2012, assuming the compensation format doesn't change in the new CBA, Pierzynski retains his Type A free agent status (which he would have for 2010-2011, according to MLB Trade Rumors) and a team would be willing to part with an unprotected draft pick to sign an aging catcher.

 

If you're a Pierzynski fan, breathe a sigh of relief. He's not likely to go anywhere between now and the end of his contract in 2012.

[Balta1701]

If the Sox do hang on to Pierzynski and then falter through the first three months of the 2012 season, don't expect him to be dealt before the deadline. Williams has only traded three veterans away for prospects before the July 31 trade deadline since 2001, with Ray Durham going to Oakland in 2002, Tadahito Iguchi going to Philadelphia in 2007 and Rob Mackowiak going to San Diego in 2007.

So pretty much every year that the Sox were clearly out of it after 3 months KW traded away some veterans.

[LittleHurt05]

He'll earn $6 million in 2012, although he can still manage to be worth that money even with an age-related drop in production. Without any good backstop options on the free agent market this winter, there probably will be interest from teams looking for a veteran presence behind the plate.

 

Like who? Name a team. I think we have gone over the list before, and there are few, if any teams that could use him.

[GreatScott82]

I think the Sox will keep AJ one more year with Flowers seeing time as a DH and a backup for AJ. It wouldn't make much sense dealing him as he wouldn't bring much back in return. Unless the Sox are desperate to shed $6 million of course?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Like who? Name a team. I think we have gone over the list before, and there are few, if any teams that could use him.

 

Pretty much every team in the game has a catcher that is simply better, younger or cheaper. A team like the Rays could use an upgrade. But I'll go to church before the Rays take on his salary. AJ is pretty much here to stay.

Edited October 27, 2011 by Jordan4life

[Balta1701]

I think the Sox will keep AJ one more year with Flowers seeing time as a DH and a backup for AJ. It wouldn't make much sense dealing him as he wouldn't bring much back in return. Unless the Sox are desperate to shed $6 million of course?

The rules really haven't changed much...the Sox would probably deal him in a heartbeat if someone would take on that $6 million, or if someone would give something back of non-trivial value with the Sox chipping in a couple million. I don't think either of those are too likely...could happen if someone were desperate for a catcher, due to an injury or a retirement or somethinglike that.

[Iwritecode]

So pretty much every year that the Sox were clearly out of it after 3 months KW traded away some veterans.

 

IIRC, he traded Durham away simply because he thought that he was going to lose him at the end of the season and get nothing back. He thought that upcoming changes to the CBA would eliminate draft-pick compensation.

 

Of course the changes were never made.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Yes

[elrockinMT]

Flowers will have to show more development this year or I am betting AJP ends 2012 as the #1 Sox catcher and they are trying to extend him for 2013 and 14. Tyler has been inconsistent to say the least, but showed signs of maturing at the big league level. Hard to judge right now what he might do if handed the job. Talent for sure but he needs to show it on a day in day out basis

Edited October 27, 2011 by elrockinMT

[Jordan4life_2007]

Flowers will have to show more development this year or I am betting AJP ends 2012 as the #1 Sox catcher and they are trying to extend him for 2013 and 14. Tyler has been inconsistent to say the least, but showed signs of maturing at the big league level. Hard to judge right now what he might do if handed the job. Talent for sure but he needs to show it on a day in day out basis

 

WTF?

[DirtySox]

WTF?

 

I gagged after I read that. The sooner AJ is gone, the better.

[Balta1701]

I gagged after I read that. The sooner AJ is gone, the better.

Disagree.

 

If AJ was not being paid $6 million this year I'd have no urge to move him without a legit prospect in return. Solid performance this year from the catcher's spot.

 

As long as AJ keeps putting up .725 OPS's out of the catcher's spot, I won't be mad at him. He's not good at throwing but he covers the ball quite well.

[PolishPrince34]

We would never get compensation for Type A for AJ in 2012 because we would never take the risk to offer him arbitration. He will never get a $6 million offer from a team at Age 36

[iamshack]

I find the comparison of AJ to Michael Young pretty ridiculous....could you pick a more different situation than the two?

[southsider2k5]

Flowers will have to show more development this year or I am betting AJP ends 2012 as the #1 Sox catcher and they are trying to extend him for 2013 and 14. Tyler has been inconsistent to say the least, but showed signs of maturing at the big league level. Hard to judge right now what he might do if handed the job. Talent for sure but he needs to show it on a day in day out basis

 

There is no chance that AJ gets a two year extension from the Sox a year ahead of his contract being up. None.

[iamshack]

There is no chance that AJ gets a two year extension from the Sox a year ahead of his contract being up. None.

Perhaps not an extension, but it's certainly possible he gets brought back in a similar fashion to this last go-around.

[Balta1701]

Perhaps not an extension, but it's certainly possible he gets brought back in a similar fashion to this last go-around.

That would likely require a winning Sox team this year and a very productive AJ as well.

 

I'd be content with that. He's not likely to come back for anything other than a minimum deal if the Sox finish in 3rd place.

[iamshack]

That would likely require a winning Sox team this year and a very productive AJ as well.

 

I'd be content with that. He's not likely to come back for anything other than a minimum deal if the Sox finish in 3rd place.

Most likely, but I could foresee a situation where Flowers gets moved or is simply not productive, and the Sox resign AJ for 2/$8m or something simply because they have no other viable options.

[southsider2k5]

That would likely require a winning Sox team this year and a very productive AJ as well.

 

I'd be content with that. He's not likely to come back for anything other than a minimum deal if the Sox finish in 3rd place.

 

And a complete collapse of Tyler Flowers.

[Balta1701]

And a complete collapse of Tyler Flowers.

I wouldn't say "collapse" if flowers put up a .750 ops but AJ helped lead a winning team I bet AJ would be brought back for 1 more year.

[iamshack]

And a complete collapse of Tyler Flowers.

I recognize the value of Flowers, especially considering his limited service time, but catcher is the one position where there are other considerations at work when you're talking about replacing a veteran player with a cheaper, younger player. Because of the catcher's larger role in the makeup of the team, the choice is not as easy as who makes less money?

[Princess Dye]

All Flowers has to be is OK defensively. The great hitting potential he has shown in the minors would simply be a bonus.

 

AJP's money owed is an albatross when one considers what a franchise with our budget issues could do with a few guys off the books.

 

I wouldn't say this if AJ could do much else defensively besides block a pitch.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Princess Dye

[Wanne]

AJ's actually pretty good with the mike in front of the camera... I've enjoyed listening to him over a lot of the boneheads they run out there.

[iamshack]

AJ's actually pretty good with the mike in front of the camera... I've enjoyed listening to him over a lot of the boneheads they run out there.

Once they got him to stop that annoying hand gesture he was making every time he made a point before game 1 of the ALCS, he has been much better.

 

Pretty funny that both Ozzie and AJ have been involved in the pregame stuff.

[Rowand44]

Once they got him to stop that annoying hand gesture he was making every time he made a point before game 1 of the ALCS, he has been much better.

 

Pretty funny that both Ozzie and AJ have been involved in the pregame stuff.

Not even saying this cause I despise Ozzie but he's been a f***in hassle to listen to because well you can't understand a damn thing he says.

 

AJ actually provides seem decent analysis and has a good tv demeanor, I enjoy him.