Buehrle Signs with Marlins | 4 yrs $58 mil

[southsider2k5]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,7383061.story

 

MILWAUKEE -- Talking baseball while wondering if the NBA really is going to blow itself up: 1. What are the White Sox going to do if they lose Mark Buehrle? Is there any way they can be a .500 team, let alone a contending team, in 2012 while letting their longtime ace leave as a free agent?

 

Last year, they were 19-12 in Buehrle’s starts and 60-71 the other 131 games. That’s a difference from a .613 winning percentage to a .458 winning percentage. How big is that?

 

It’s the difference (.155 points) between the Yankees and the Pirates.

 

But maybe I’m overreacting. Over the last five seasons, the White Sox have been 92-69 in Buehrle’s starts and 315-335 without him. That’s less of a difference than the one in 2011. It’s .571-.485 – the relative difference between last year’s Rays and Mets.

 

While teams line up to court Buehrle – the Diamondbacks and the Nationals are the latest to be mentioned – the White Sox are figuring out how they can replace him, not re-sign him. That’s what Williams seemed to be telling the Tribune’s Mark Gonzales on Monday night in Milwaukee.

 

“There’s a time for everyone to come,’’ Williams said. “There’s a time for everyone to go.’’

 

Williams said he doesn’t want Buehrle to go, but offered no real plan how the White Sox could fit $15 million or so a season for Buehrle into a payroll that grew beyond its limits with the additions of Jake Peavy, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn over the last three seasons.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Marlins and perhaps the Cubs are believed to have interest in Buehrle. ESPN and SiriusXM’s Jim Bowden predicts he’ll receive a four-year, $56 million contract from someone, and that would equal the contract extension the White Sox gave Buehrle midway through the 2007 season.

 

Buehrle was 27 then. He’s 32 now, and he’s lost velocity off his fastball in three of the last four seasons, with the overall drop from 87 mph to 85 mph.

 

Buehrle’s metrics haven’t been as good as his ERA, the traditional measuring stick, and his annually high total of hits allowed has to concern the White Sox and his pursuers. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron points out that many other top starters – among them Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Tim Wakefield, Johan Santana, Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Zambrano – have outperformed their peripheral numbers over the last 10 years.

 

Cameron points out that as a guy who throws groundballs, Buehrle gives up an unusually high number of unearned runs. Here’s the key paragraph in a recent piece:

 

“If we sort all starting pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched since 2000, Buehrle’s 3.83 ERA puts him as a peer of Ben Sheets (3.79), Zack Greinke (3.82), Josh Beckett (3.84), and Andy Pettitte (3.86). If you ignore the subjective earned runs tag and sort by runs allowed per nine innings, however, Buehrle’s 4.26 RA/9 makes him a peer of Al Leiter (4.23), Barry Zito (4.24), Randy Wolf (4.29), and Jarrod Washburn (4.29).’’

 

Like many of the White Sox’s fans, Williams seems to have been waiting for Buehrle to reach the end of his run as one of the organization’s most successful pitchers ever. And you can understand why he didn’t get a running start on this contract negotiation. As far back as the spring of 2009, Buehrle was talking about an early retirement, not looking for his next contract.

 

But the window for that next contract is here, and the White Sox don’t have the flexibility to compete for them. In the end, it seems, they’ll have no choice but to wish him the best and hope they can find somebody to throw his 200 innings the next couple of years, if not the next decade.

 

2. It’s hard to see how the White Sox could lose Buehrle to free agency and trade John Danks but the Danks rumors are running on a parallel course to the reports about interest in Buehrle. Between them, Buehrle, Danks and the already departed Edwin Jackson pitched 497 1-3 of the staff’s 1460 innings last season, and the Sox don’t have a long list of alternatives lined up behind them. Williams is going to have to go outside the organization to find pitching, and maybe he will deal Danks, who is only a year away from his own free-agent window. FanGraphs’ Cameron also took a recent look at Danks and came to an amusing conclusion – that he’s the left-handed Jackson. He believes a team trading for Danks could just as easily sign Jackson as a free agent. The White Sox, of course, would be better off if they had kept Daniel Hudson rather than trading for Jackson at the deadline in 2010 but that’s old news.

[The Ginger Kid]

It boggles my mind sometimes at how poorly this has been handled. That we can't afford a guy like Mark Buehrle because we're strapped with contracts to the likes of Rios and Dunn. How we lost Hudson for nothing. It's tough to swallow sometimes.

[NorthSideSox72]

KW in a tough place right now, by his own doing. We all know the background, no need to rehash how we got here.

 

Thing is, I believe he wants to move Quentin and probably Thornton, possibly AJ... and either sign MB or extend Danks. But my guess is, he isn't allowed to do either of the latter things, before first clearing payroll via the former things. The other teams know this, and are making it a tough sell. KW is then making it sound like he doesn't have to do any of it.

 

If the other teams call his bluff, and/or if he can't find a way to have MB or Danks signed/extended... we may see an ugly team next year.

 

I hope Kenny can move some of those guys for decent compensation, and soon, because I still think that signing MB, at the money he'll likely get, is smarter than extending Danks for what that would cost. And doing neither would REALLY suck.

 

[fathom]

It boggles my mind sometimes at how poorly this has been handled. That we can't afford a guy like Mark Buehrle because we're strapped with contracts to the likes of Rios and Dunn. How we lost Hudson for nothing. It's tough to swallow sometimes.

 

I agree, and then you waste 4 million dollars on Frasor. My opinion is that the Sox don't think Buehrle will be able to live up to his next 4 year contract, and that's why they don't seem too sad to lose him.

[LittleHurt05]

KW in a tough place right now, by his own doing. We all know the background, no need to rehash how we got here.

 

Thing is, I believe he wants to move Quentin and probably Thornton, possibly AJ... and either sign MB or extend Danks. But my guess is, he isn't allowed to do either of the latter things, before first clearing payroll via the former things. The other teams know this, and are making it a tough sell. KW is then making it sound like he doesn't have to do any of it.

 

If the other teams call his bluff, and/or if he can't find a way to have MB or Danks signed/extended... we may see an ugly team next year.

 

I hope Kenny can move some of those guys for decent compensation, and soon, because I still think that signing MB, at the money he'll likely get, is smarter than extending Danks for what that would cost. And doing neither would REALLY suck.

 

It may be smarter than extending Danks, but it still doesn't mean it's a good move. I really want Mark back, but at 4 years, $60 million? No thanks.

[NorthSideSox72]

It may be smarter than extending Danks, but it still doesn't mean it's a good move. I really want Mark back, but at 4 years, $60 million? No thanks.

He won't get that kind of money. He won't even get the 4/56 he got in the last contract, I'm willing to bet. And I'm also willing to be he'd come back to the Sox for a little less than other offers he might have. Not a LOT less, but a little.

 

[LittleHurt05]

He won't get that kind of money. He won't even get the 4/56 he got in the last contract, I'm willing to bet. And I'm also willing to be he'd come back to the Sox for a little less than other offers he might have. Not a LOT less, but a little.

 

You don't think so? If this many teams are truly interested, I would think his price would get marked up like that. It's not like there are tons of FA options out there, I guess we will see.

[southsider2k5]

You don't think so? If this many teams are truly interested, I would think his price would get marked up like that. It's not like there are tons of FA options out there, I guess we will see.

 

I'm with you. The guy is going to get his. I would be willing to bet he gets at least what he got last time, probably more.

[NorthSideSox72]

Lots of teams may have interest, but that doesn't mean they are willing to overpay either. I think there are concerns about velocity, and about age. We'll see though, I could be wrong.

 

[hogan873]

He won't get that kind of money. He won't even get the 4/56 he got in the last contract, I'm willing to bet. And I'm also willing to be he'd come back to the Sox for a little less than other offers he might have. Not a LOT less, but a little.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least offered 4/$60. I say offered because he may not take a deal like that if it's not with a team he wants to play for. That being said, I believe he signs somehwere for around $14-$15 million a year for at least three years. I don't see the Sox offering that much, however.

[DirtySox]

 

jonmorosi Jon Morosi

#Cubs have had multiple discussions with the agent for Mark Buehrle, source says.

1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[Baron]

jonmorosi Jon Morosi

#Cubs have had multiple discussions with the agent for Mark Buehrle, source says.

1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

 

 

Hah

[Cali]

I get this feeling when Buehrle signs elsewhere its gonna be for a ridiculous contract the Sox would have never offered or could match.

[fathom]

Mark I dare you to try and do your best to damage your Sox legacy and sign with the Cubs

[DirtySox]

Mark I dare you to try and do your best to damage your Sox legacy and sign with the Cubs

 

The meltdowns would be hilariously epic.

[The Ginger Kid]

I agree, and then you waste 4 million dollars on Frasor. My opinion is that the Sox don't think Buehrle will be able to live up to his next 4 year contract, and that's why they don't seem too sad to lose him.

My opinion of Williams really began to dim as the season wound down, but with the off-season and time to forget the '10 campaign and evaluate where this team is at, it's hard to look at the mess he's made. I'm disgusted, with him and with the guy who keeps him employed. I don't trust a single move or decision this guy makes.

[Quin]

I'm beginning to think KW is waiting until the Winter Meetings, to gauge if he can get rid of Danks or Floyd.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Damn, Wite. You were postin' like that the other night and you were drunk? Impressive. I need hooked on phonics when I'm drunk.

[cabiness42]

I'm beginning to think KW is waiting until the Winter Meetings, to gauge if he can get rid of Danks or Floyd.

 

I think KW is waiting until he knows whether or not he gets Buehrle back before deciding on trades for Danks and/or Floyd.

[hogan873]

I think KW is waiting until he knows whether or not he gets Buehrle back before deciding on trades for Danks and/or Floyd.

I'm thinking that, too. Let's just hope the Sox don't end up without Buehrle and Danks.

[Balta1701]

I'm beginning to think KW is waiting until the Winter Meetings, to gauge if he can get rid of Danks or Floyd.

I'm beginning to think the Market for Mark is so hot that he won't last until the winter meetings.

[southsider2k5]

Damn, Wite. You were postin' like that the other night and you were drunk? Impressive. I need hooked on phonics when I'm drunk.

 

My freshman year of college we all called my roommate "The Philosopher" when he was drunk. I swear his IQ actually went up 20 points when he had been drinking.

[southsider2k5]

I'm thinking that, too. Let's just hope the Sox don't end up without Buehrle and Danks.

 

I'd say from the sounds of Kenny, if Mark leaves, it is a given that Danks or Floyd goes.

[Balta1701]

I'd say from the sounds of Kenny, if Mark leaves, it is a given that Danks or Floyd goes.

If Kenny is talking "Rebuilding" and hinting at the kind of offers he got, then I'd say it's possible both go.

[southsider2k5]

If Kenny is talking "Rebuilding" and hinting at the kind of offers he got, then I'd say it's possible both go.

 

Judging by the contracts that are being bandied about for crappy and good players alike, I would imagine it will make some teams pony up players to trade for needs, instead of hitting FA.