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What's Plan B?


Marty34

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 10:23 AM)
We can do it the Nationals way. Wait until the best prospects of our generation are available, then lose 100+ games those two seasons to get the #1 overall pick. And don't make the playoffs for 30 years while you are at it.

 

That actually might be more appealing than going into '12 with our lone hope being that Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham remember how to play baseball. Oh, and Jake Peavy being able to pitch one month without his vagina hurting.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 01:56 PM)
That actually might be more appealing than going into '12 with our lone hope being that Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham remember how to play baseball. Oh, and Jake Peavy being able to pitch one month without his vagina hurting.

Man, I want this team to take the division so much right now so that I can dredge this up. Just having to read that makes me like the guys more.

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QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 12:42 PM)
I truly think that's inevitable. What we're looking at right now is the same thing we do every trade deadline. We think we have a chance when we really don't have much of one at all. We should be focusing on the future, not clinging to a false hope that we're still in this thing.

 

I know we're not in a good position to fully rebuild with the contracts of Dunn and Rios, but we're not in a position to compete either, IMO. We should start taking bids on every single guy that will draw interest besides guys like Sale, De Aza, Viciedo, Morel, etc. Let Dunn and Rios ride out their contracts or trade them if someone is stupid enough to take them, and continue to build up young talent.

 

It's going to take years, but these are years where we won't be competing anyway. Imagine if we had started to rebuild with that horrendous 2007 team. We'd be on our 5th year. It's true that we might not have done a good job of it, but we also might be 5 years into a successful rebuild. We just refuse to accept the truth that we're not going to be serious contenders.

I completely disagree with you. If we bring back Beurhle and don't trade Quentin, Floyd, Danks, or Thornton, I think we'd have a halfway decent shot at winning the division. Our pitching staff would have the potential to be one of the best in the league. It would also have incredible depth, as you'd have either Sale or Humber and Stewart available in the event of injury. That depth would allow you to try and get whatever you could out of Peavy this year without coddling him and if he broke down you'd have a solid replacement available.

 

The real concern would be the offense, but if you inject Viciedo in RF and move Quentin back to LF, you'd have significantly improved your outfield. You'd also have De Aza and Lillibridge as insurance in case Rios doesn't bounce back. You'd still need Dunn and Beckham to play like they're capable of, but at least our new manager should be quicker to pull the plug on a struggling player. With some natural growth from Morel and minor improvement from Ramirez, I think you'd see significantly more production from our lineup.

 

Now, the odds of keeping all these guys is practically zero, but as long as Buerhle is back and you only move one or two of those other guys, I think you still have a shot at the division. I agree that the organization needs to start thinking about the future at some point, but there is no reason not to go for it in 2012 if Reinsdorf will support a $115 million payroll. If next year flops, I'd be cool with a rebuild, but just not yet.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 02:52 PM)
<!--quoteo(post=2509262:date=Nov 12, 2011 -> 12:42 PM:name=Milkman delivers)-->
QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 12:42 PM)
<!--quotec-->I truly think that's inevitable. What we're looking at right now is the same thing we do every trade deadline. We think we have a chance when we really don't have much of one at all. We should be focusing on the future, not clinging to a false hope that we're still in this thing.

 

I know we're not in a good position to fully rebuild with the contracts of Dunn and Rios, but we're not in a position to compete either, IMO. We should start taking bids on every single guy that will draw interest besides guys like Sale, De Aza, Viciedo, Morel, etc. Let Dunn and Rios ride out their contracts or trade them if someone is stupid enough to take them, and continue to build up young talent.

 

It's going to take years, but these are years where we won't be competing anyway. Imagine if we had started to rebuild with that horrendous 2007 team. We'd be on our 5th year. It's true that we might not have done a good job of it, but we also might be 5 years into a successful rebuild. We just refuse to accept the truth that we're not going to be serious contenders.

I completely disagree with you. If we bring back Beurhle and don't trade Quentin, Floyd, Danks, or Thornton, I think we'd have a halfway decent shot at winning the division. Our pitching staff would have the potential to be one of the best in the league. It would also have incredible depth, as you'd have either Sale or Humber and Stewart available in the event of injury. That depth would allow you to try and get whatever you could out of Peavy this year without coddling him and if he broke down you'd have a solid replacement available.

 

The real concern would be the offense, but if you inject Viciedo in RF and move Quentin back to LF, you'd have significantly improved your outfield. You'd also have De Aza and Lillibridge as insurance in case Rios doesn't bounce back. You'd still need Dunn and Beckham to play like they're capable of, but at least our new manager should be quicker to pull the plug on a struggling player. With some natural growth from Morel and minor improvement from Ramirez, I think you'd see significantly more production from our lineup.

 

Now, the odds of keeping all these guys is practically zero, but as long as Buerhle is back and you only move one or two of those other guys, I think you still have a shot at the division. I agree that the organization needs to start thinking about the future at some point, but there is no reason not to go for it in 2012 if Reinsdorf will support a $115 million payroll. If next year flops, I'd be cool with a rebuild, but just not yet.

 

That's a huge problem for me. People say this every offseason and every trade deadline. And then the next one rolls around, and they're OK waiting for the next one again. It's a never-ending cycle.

 

And with a completely raw manager and coaching staff, it would be the perfect time to begin a rebuild. They can learn to fine tune and such as the younger players get better, so hopefully they all hit their stride at about the same time. It's like killing two birds with one stone.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 03:54 PM)
He can be one of the best offensive forces in MLB.

 

Will he definitely do that? No. Is he risky? Yes.

 

His ceiling is "One of the best hitters in baseball".

 

Give me a name of a current player who you think his peak can resemble.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 04:56 PM)
Give me a name of a current player who you think his peak can resemble.

My comp has always been Vlad Guerrero. Never took a ton of walks (except when pitchers refuse to pitch to him), always very aggressive, but killed the ball when it hit his bat.

 

His peak doesn't get the respect it should because it was in Montreal at the peak of the steroid era, but 98-2007, .327 average, .980 OPS, 35 HR/Year.

 

Viciedo has that in him if he's taught well. He might well have more power than that.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 04:13 PM)
My comp has always been Vlad Guerrero. Never took a ton of walks (except when pitchers refuse to pitch to him), always very aggressive, but killed the ball when it hit his bat.

 

His peak doesn't get the respect it should because it was in Montreal at the peak of the steroid era, but 98-2007, .327 average, .980 OPS, 35 HR/Year.

 

Viciedo has that in him if he's taught well. He might well have more power than that.

 

Those are HoF numbers and would make him a top 5 prospect in the game (if he still qualified.)

 

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 05:21 PM)
Those are HoF numbers and would make him a top 5 prospect in the game (if he still qualified.)

He hasn't been qualified in 2 years.

 

You asked what his ceiling is. His ceiling is HoF level.

 

The big question is whether he can get to his ceiling.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 05:24 PM)
If that's the case given his sub-par defense and position, he should not be viewed as untouchable.

He's not untouchable if the perfect offer was made, but you do not trade him for pitching prospects. Even if you could get a pitching prospect for him of equal value, I'd much rather hold on to Viciedo. The injury risk for the pitcher would be insanely higher. Viciedo is a fairly safe player to think we can build around offensively. Why in god's name would you give him away for a couple of unproven arms that could break down at any time?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 04:28 PM)
He hasn't been qualified in 2 years.

 

You asked what his ceiling is. His ceiling is HoF level.

 

The big question is whether he can get to his ceiling.

 

Vlad's minor league OPS was .989, Viciedo's .784. Nothing Viciedo has done suggests his offensive ceiling is Vlad-like.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 04:51 PM)
Vlad's minor league OPS was .989, Viciedo's .784. Nothing Viciedo has done suggests his offensive ceiling is Vlad-like.

Look at the leagues they were playing in at 20 and 21 years old. Viciedo made gigantic strides in just 1 season, he's got a ridiculously high ceiling.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 12, 2011 -> 04:37 PM)
He's not untouchable if the perfect offer was made, but you do not trade him for pitching prospects. Even if you could get a pitching prospect for him of equal value, I'd much rather hold on to Viciedo. The injury risk for the pitcher would be insanely higher. Viciedo is a fairly safe player to think we can build around offensively. Why in god's name would you give him away for a couple of unproven arms that could break down at any time?

 

You deal him because a corner OF'er is easier to find than starting pitching. Of course, pitching prospects are a risk and if the farm system had even average pitching talent I wouldn't be so willing to deal Viciedo. There's nothing down there to help a rotation that could soon look really awful.

 

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