Eminor3rd Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/...cago_white_sox/ Tons more info in the link than pasted below. Thursday, November 17, 2011 2012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox That didn't go too well, did it? The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they can really handle nasty surprises. In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6 bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from Beckham and Morel, giving 700 PA a year to a 5th outfielder) became pretty glaring. So, do they rebuild or retool? We'll known in a few weeks if trade talks around John Danks and Carlos Quentin become serious. What the team can't do is take a middle ground - even in a weaker division, the franchise doesn't have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best. I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome for Adam Dunn in 2012, from 40 homers to being designated for assignment in June. Next Up: Los Angeheim Angels Oracle on Twitter Szymborski on ESPN Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Paul Konerko R 1B 36 .278 .359 .493 134 493 68 137 23 1 27 87 59 91 1 1 124 Carlos Quentin R RF 29 .262 .353 .497 123 435 67 114 28 1 24 81 42 78 3 1 123 Adam Dunn L DH 32 .209 .340 .429 132 450 61 94 21 0 26 76 86 184 0 1 103 Dayan Viciedo R RF 23 .274 .328 .431 156 580 74 159 28 0 21 75 40 114 3 1 100 Alejandro de Aza L LF 28 .271 .328 .406 139 473 73 128 28 6 8 47 38 100 21 10 94 Alexei Ramirez R SS 30 .274 .321 .412 155 587 80 161 26 2 17 72 39 77 9 6 94 Ramon Castro R C 36 .238 .304 .448 36 105 11 25 4 0 6 17 10 30 0 0 97 A.J. Pierzynski L C 35 .277 .309 .394 125 462 44 128 25 1 9 48 18 42 1 1 86 Lastings Milledge R LF 27 .259 .319 .378 134 482 60 125 23 2 10 47 37 92 17 6 85 Alexis Rios R CF 31 .259 .301 .404 147 564 74 146 28 3 16 63 32 86 20 8 86 Gordon Beckham R 2B 25 .254 .318 .388 144 500 69 127 29 1 12 55 39 101 6 4 87 Tyler Flowers R C 26 .215 .328 .393 119 400 55 86 18 1 17 51 59 155 3 2 91 Brent Morel R 3B 25 .261 .300 .384 140 502 60 131 25 2 11 53 27 87 8 5 81 Brent Lillibridge R RF 28 .230 .299 .378 110 283 44 65 11 2 9 31 24 86 17 6 79 Juan Pierre L LF 34 .273 .329 .321 145 535 71 146 15 4 1 38 36 37 34 15 75 Brandon Short R CF 23 .250 .294 .391 148 608 80 152 28 5 16 66 30 164 12 10 80 Dallas McPherson L 3B 31 .217 .281 .413 115 419 52 91 20 1 20 60 37 163 3 2 82 Tyler Saladino R SS 22 .234 .312 .377 123 478 81 112 25 5 11 45 47 138 8 8 82 Jim Gallagher L 1B 26 .235 .309 .346 146 557 70 131 31 2 9 54 57 121 6 3 74 Seth Loman L 1B 26 .219 .292 .371 140 529 58 116 21 1 19 63 33 193 2 1 75 Jordan Danks L CF 25 .227 .303 .348 126 466 63 106 21 4 9 43 47 166 13 5 73 Tyler Kuhn L 2B 25 .256 .302 .335 146 562 63 144 23 6 3 46 35 110 12 8 70 Eduardo Escobar B SS 23 .256 .290 .344 156 582 66 149 24 6 5 51 28 127 12 7 68 Josh Phegley R C 24 .230 .274 .356 95 365 42 84 17 1 9 46 20 87 1 2 66 Osvaldo Martinez R SS 24 .241 .295 .314 146 526 71 127 23 3 3 42 35 90 11 7 63 Gookie Dawkins R 3B 33 .210 .268 .337 99 347 32 73 18 1 8 33 25 117 6 4 60 Justin Greene R CF 26 .213 .276 .330 141 506 66 108 19 5 10 43 35 206 15 11 61 Christian Colonel R 3B 30 .218 .288 .308 65 211 23 46 8 1 3 13 19 51 1 2 59 Jared Mitchell L CF 23 .195 .268 .309 114 430 58 84 21 5 6 37 40 192 10 7 53 Donny Lucy R C 29 .206 .250 .289 54 180 17 37 6 0 3 11 9 54 2 1 43 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Chris Sale L 23 3.95 10 8 26 26 152.7 132 67 18 75 163 109 Gavin Floyd R 29 4.08 12 11 30 29 185.3 182 84 20 50 149 106 John Danks L 27 4.21 12 11 30 30 188.0 187 88 23 58 145 102 Mark Buehrle L 33 4.27 10 10 27 27 175.0 195 83 21 41 90 101 Jake Peavy R 31 4.30 8 7 21 20 119.3 121 57 14 31 102 100 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Dylan Axelrod R 26 4.54 5 6 27 19 117.0 130 59 10 38 75 95 Philip Humber R 29 4.86 7 8 26 23 140.7 155 76 19 37 89 89 Doug Davis L 36 5.25 5 8 18 18 96.0 109 56 11 48 66 82 Zach Stewart R 25 5.82 5 8 29 23 130.0 163 84 18 54 77 74 Joe Bisenius R 29 5.98 2 3 24 8 52.7 57 35 7 41 38 72 Jose Quintana L 23 6.14 4 8 30 12 88.0 102 60 17 45 56 70 Hector Santiago L 24 6.15 5 9 29 14 90.7 105 62 15 53 62 70 Donald Veal L 27 6.21 1 2 20 7 37.7 40 26 6 31 31 69 Deunte Heath R 26 6.33 3 6 33 11 79.7 92 56 12 60 64 68 Charles Leesman L 25 6.66 5 12 26 26 127.0 166 94 15 90 66 65 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Matt Thornton L 35 3.21 5 3 57 0 56.0 48 20 5 19 65 134 Sergio Santos R 28 3.53 4 3 60 0 58.7 48 23 6 27 73 122 Addison Reed R 23 3.67 4 3 58 0 76.0 67 31 8 28 81 117 Jesse Crain R 30 3.92 5 4 65 0 62.0 55 27 7 31 63 110 Jason Frasor R 34 3.93 4 3 60 0 55.0 51 24 6 25 54 110 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Will Ohman L 34 4.58 1 1 51 0 39.3 39 20 6 17 37 94 Tony Pena R 30 4.92 3 3 42 1 56.7 61 31 7 24 40 88 Josh Kinney R 33 4.95 3 4 55 0 60.0 64 33 7 27 46 87 Brian Bruney R 30 5.20 1 2 39 0 36.3 37 21 5 24 32 83 Miguel Socolovich R 25 5.37 3 5 40 2 58.7 62 35 7 40 46 80 Gregory Infante R 24 5.37 3 4 53 0 60.3 66 36 7 35 43 80 Jhan Marinez R 23 5.94 3 6 52 0 50.0 48 33 9 45 53 73 Shane Lindsay R 27 5.94 2 3 42 0 50.0 45 33 5 60 50 73 Anthony Carter R 26 6.12 1 3 48 0 57.3 66 39 10 34 42 70 Nathan Jones R 26 6.16 3 6 39 8 80.3 101 55 10 48 49 70 Leyson Septimo L 26 6.61 2 4 45 0 47.7 49 35 6 57 43 65 Freddy Dolsi R 29 6.72 3 7 31 9 71.0 92 53 13 36 38 64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I thought Bill James had him hitting .210 with 20 bombs next year. Something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What the team can't do is take a middle ground - even in a weaker division, the franchise doesn't have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best. This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 02:42 PM) I thought Bill James had him hitting .210 with 20 bombs next year. Something like that. Bill James' projections are notoriously different than most of the popular formats. Generally, speaking they are a lot more optimistic than ZiPS. Weird that Dunn's is less optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Christian Colonel was released back in April. He had 7 hits in 15 games for the Barons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPN366 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Tyler Kuhn will get snatched up on the Rule 5 Draft because he wasn't added to the 40 man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 03:03 PM) Bill James' projections are notoriously different than most of the popular formats. Generally, speaking they are a lot more optimistic than ZiPS. Weird that Dunn's is less optimistic. James' projections have more of a human factor in them. Although it doesn't mean they're more accurate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 If he only hits 26 HR's that would be bust city! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (Soxfest @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 12:13 AM) If he only hits 26 HR's that would be bust city! Twenty six home runs would be a huge year for the aging, slow-bat, no pop, no clue at the plate version of Dunn IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 06:43 PM) Twenty six home runs would be a huge year for the aging, slow-bat, no pop, no clue at the plate version of Dunn IMO. It'd still be quite the bust considering all his value is solely tied to his power production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Wait a second this cant be right. Am the only one that realizes what they are projecting here. For hitters, the first 14 from Konerko to Lillibridge if you add up their RBI, you get 803 Runs Scored. For pitchers, if you add up the the ER of the 7 starters and 7 top relievers (including Kinney, but not Pena cuz he was released) you get 692. WHAT. That kind of run scored vs runs allowed figure is going to yield, according to Pythagorean win formula, like 94-95 wins. Even if you adjust each number by a 50 runs in the worse direction you get 750 runs scored and 750 runs allowed. So in being pessimistic according to their numbers, the sox are still an 81 win team. And if things go right they are a 94 win team. YEAH RIGHT. I really really think they need to realize the difference between what they are saying about the sox, "What the team can't do is take a middle ground - even in a weaker division, the franchise doesn't have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best" (which I agree with) and what their numbers show (which I disagree with). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 04:43 PM) This would be fantastic if true, which is why I doubt it's true. However, Romine is rather expendable to the Yankees who have Montero. QUOTE (joeynach @ Nov 18, 2011 -> 10:35 PM) Wait a second this cant be right. Am the only one that realizes what they are projecting here. For hitters, the first 14 from Konerko to Lillibridge if you add up their RBI, you get 803 Runs Scored. For pitchers, if you add up the the ER of the 7 starters and 7 top relievers (including Kinney, but not Pena cuz he was released) you get 692. WHAT. That kind of run scored vs runs allowed figure is going to yield, according to Pythagorean win formula, like 94-95 wins. Even if you adjust each number by a 50 runs in the worse direction you get 750 runs scored and 750 runs allowed. So in being pessimistic according to their numbers, the sox are still an 81 win team. And if things go right they are a 94 win team. YEAH RIGHT. I really really think they need to realize the difference between what they are saying about the sox, "What the team can't do is take a middle ground - even in a weaker division, the franchise doesn't have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best" (which I agree with) and what their numbers show (which I disagree with). thats because the first 14 include AJ and Flowers both starting at catcher and basically 5 OFer starting, adding the first 14 wouldnt be the way to do it...im to tired to calculate it now but youd have to basically knock out either Qs or tanks number, lastings numbers, castros, most of flowers, then like split half of rios or de azas...lillibridge is the utility IF in this situation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Trade Dunn and Rios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 09:53 AM) Trade Dunn and Rios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeynach Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 02:04 AM) thats because the first 14 include AJ and Flowers both starting at catcher and basically 5 OFer starting, adding the first 14 wouldnt be the way to do it...im to tired to calculate it now but youd have to basically knock out either Qs or tanks number, lastings numbers, castros, most of flowers, then like split half of rios or de azas...lillibridge is the utility IF in this situation Well its a new day, do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 10:53 AM) Trade Dunn and Rios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 09:53 AM) Trade Dunn and Rios You just don't get how things work... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 12:53 PM) You just don't get how things work... The trade Dunn/Rios posts have to be in jest now, right? Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 QUOTE (DirtySox @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 01:59 PM) The trade Dunn/Rios posts have to be in jest now, right? Right? No. If you notice the posters who say it, and are familiar at all with their posting histories, you'd know that they are deathly serious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI1020 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 QUOTE (DirtySox @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 07:59 PM) The trade Dunn/Rios posts have to be in jest now, right? Right? I'm not jesting. I never want to see either of them in a Sox uniform again. Rios may be my most un favorite White Sox player ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Nov 19, 2011 -> 10:37 AM) He has to be trolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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