Can Humber repeat '11?

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...&feedID=661

 

Philip Humber came out of nowhere to become arguably the best starter the White Sox had last season. But is he another Don Cooper success story or merely a one-year flash-in-the-pan?

 

Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have Humber pegged for a 4.86 ERA, hardly an encouraging prognostication. Bill James is a little more optimistic, seeing Humber with a 4.26 ERA next season.

 

Neither of those numbers are close to Humber's 3.75 ERA in 2011. What gives?

 

Batted ball luck, perhaps.

 

Opponents had a .275 BABIP against Humber, a number that isn't a huge red flag in and of itself. Over the last two seasons, 22 pitchers have had opponent BABIPs of .275 or lower, so it's not necessarily a sign of single-season good luck.

 

But looking deeper into Humber's BABIP reveals a less encouraging development. Over his first 15 starts, opponents had a .220 BABIP -- hardly a sustainable rate. Humber's ERA over those 101 2/3 innings was 2.57 and opposing hitters (.565 OPS) had the success of Adam Dunn (.569 OPS) against him.

 

But in his final 11 starts, opponents had a .364 BABIP against Humber and his ERA ballooned to 5.61 in that span.

 

Part of that spike could've been due to a simple regression to the mean -- Humber said over and over as the summer went on he didn't feel like he was doing anything different, only that more hits were falling in.

 

Humber's pitch selection wasn't extremely different -- he threw more sliders and fewer changeups in his final 11 starts, although his slider was a very effective offering, yielding a swinging strike nearly one in every four times he threw it.

 

The key, though, was that opponents laid off Humber's curveball more as the season went on.

 

Through his first 15 starts, Humber threw his curveball on 24 percent of his pitches, generating a swing and a miss with it 14 percent of the time. On average, only one in every five curveballs was put in play, with opponents swinging at it 51.5 percent of the time.

 

But in his final 11 starts, Humber's curveball generated a whiff just 10 percent of the time while opponents had a 49.5 percent swing rate against it. When opponents swung, they made contact more, putting the pitch into play 25 percent of the time.

 

That small difference made a big impact on the end of Humber's season. Opponents grounded out once in every four plate appearances in his first 15 starts; in his last 11, that rate was one in every five trips to the plate. In fact, the most common occurrence in plate appearances against Humber after July 2 was a single (22 percent).

 

Behind that is this hypothesis: Opponents figured out how to hit Philip Humber. He tried to adjust -- throwing more sliders and fewer changeups -- but those changes weren't enough. His command also wasn't as good, which certainly contributed to his hittability (hey, if beer companies can make up words so can I!) as well.

 

So what does that mean for Humber's 2012?

 

Those projections by ZiPS and Bill James aren't outlandish for a guy coming off a 3.75 ERA. A rough baseline for Humber is probably around 4.20, with it being more likely that's on the high end than the low end of the spectrum.

 

If that sounds pessimistic...well, it probably is. But we don't have a lot of stats with which to try to project Humber -- we have one good year preceded by numerous mediocre-to-bad seasons.

 

Maybe Humber actually has turned the corner, though. I guess we'll find out next summer.

[Balta1701]

Of course, the other answer still remains...he tired out middle of the season, and so he became a 3-4 inning pitcher who the manager insisted needed to pitch 6.

[chw42]

Ozzie tried to milk too much out of the guy. He should have been pulled in numerous games where he ended up giving up more runs because Ozzie was too stubborn or stupid to realize that he was tired.

[southsider2k5]

Ozzie tried to milk too much out of the guy. He should have been pulled in numerous games where he ended up giving up more runs because Ozzie was too stubborn or stupid to realize that he was tired.

 

Neither. He ran him out there because he realized if you want this guy to throw a higher number of innings in the future, he had to put up innings to condition him.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Neither. He ran him out there because he realized if you want this guy to throw a higher number of innings in the future, he had to put up innings to condition him.

 

Because Ozzie cared so much about the future of the organization. He threw this season well before Humber came back to earth.

[southsider2k5]

Because Ozzie cared so much about the future of the organization. He threw this season well before Humber came back to earth.

 

I'd still go with Cooper being the guy who made the pitching decisions.

[Quin]

Because Ozzie cared so much about the future of the organization. He threw this season well before Humber came back to earth.

 

This.

[JoshPR]

Too bad neither bill James or zips projections pitch.......

[SoxAce]

Ozzie tried to milk too much out of the guy. He should have been pulled in numerous games where he ended up giving up more runs because Ozzie was too stubborn or stupid to realize that he was tired.

 

Say what you will about Ozzie, but he has always been pretty good in handling pitchers. He does not seem like the type of guy to put a player's career in jeopardy for his own self reasons of the organization.

[Balta1701]

Say what you will about Ozzie, but he has always been pretty good in handling pitchers. He does not seem like the type of guy to put a player's career in jeopardy for his own self reasons of the organization.

I would have said the same thing until I watched this season. His handling of the pitching staff this season was epically bad.

[Balta1701]

Neither. He ran him out there because he realized if you want this guy to throw a higher number of innings in the future, he had to put up innings to condition him.

Trouble is...that's the exact opposite of an "All in" move. At the time Humber was really starting to wear down, June and July, where you could see that he would give you 5 innings and then get in trouble, we were still maintaining the charade of being competitive. This was still pre-trade-deadline, when we should have sold harder if we were planning for the future. We still had Chris Sale in the bullpen, when long-term we'd be better off with him getting starter's innings. We still had Viciedo and De Aza raking in AAA.

 

If "Look towards 2012" was the goal with Philip Humber's arm, it should have been the goal with the rest of the roster. If "Take our last shot" at the division was the goal with the rest of the roster, then if Philip Humber can give you 5 innings of shutout/1 run ball and he's going to implode in the 6th, take the 5 innings and have the bullpen ready in the 6th.

[southsider2k5]

Trouble is...that's the exact opposite of an "All in" move. At the time Humber was really starting to wear down, June and July, where you could see that he would give you 5 innings and then get in trouble, we were still maintaining the charade of being competitive. This was still pre-trade-deadline, when we should have sold harder if we were planning for the future. We still had Chris Sale in the bullpen, when long-term we'd be better off with him getting starter's innings. We still had Viciedo and De Aza raking in AAA.

 

If "Look towards 2012" was the goal with Philip Humber's arm, it should have been the goal with the rest of the roster. If "Take our last shot" at the division was the goal with the rest of the roster, then if Philip Humber can give you 5 innings of shutout/1 run ball and he's going to implode in the 6th, take the 5 innings and have the bullpen ready in the 6th.

 

Don Cooper could give a s*** less about "All-in" if you listen to him talk.

[Balta1701]

Don Cooper could give a s*** less about "All-in" if you listen to him talk.

You do realize that the logical conclusion based on your statement was that "Ozzie was going all-in, but Cooper was looking to 2012", right?

[southsider2k5]

You do realize that the logical conclusion based on your statement was that "Ozzie was going all-in, but Cooper was looking to 2012", right?

 

You didn't watch this season, did you?

[SI1020]

I think if I ever hear or read the words "regression to the mean" again I just may go bat crazy. As for Humber, just based on my observations and his past history, every else be damned, I think we've seen the best of him. At best he is a back end of the rotation kind of guy. Sox pitching may very well be dreadful next year.

[Steve9347]

This thread just makes me more excited that Ozzie is gone. As bad as I predict Robin's tenure here to be, he can't hurt the team as much as Ozzie did with one foot out the door this year.

[Chisoxfn]

Of course, the other answer still remains...he tired out middle of the season, and so he became a 3-4 inning pitcher who the manager insisted needed to pitch 6.

Agreed. He was fatigued and tired. I think his stuff was still there and he was effective but just wore out so quick that he got hit up prior to getting the hook (and pretty early). For some crazy reason I feel pretty confident in Humber having a quality season for the Sox (not an ace type year, but a solid middle of the rotation starter).

[Heads22]

Agreed. He was fatigued and tired. I think his stuff was still there and he was effective but just wore out so quick that he got hit up prior to getting the hook (and pretty early). For some crazy reason I feel pretty confident in Humber having a quality season for the Sox (not an ace type year, but a solid middle of the rotation starter).

 

Agreed. He was pitching more major league innings than he was ever used to. And his ERA absolutely f***ing ballooned after the sixth inning.

[VictoryMC98]

I'd still go with Cooper being the guy who made the pitching decisions.

 

I agree with this.. Cooper controls the SP/RP..

 

Also, I would like to add.. Zero Chance he repeats.. This is Loaiza 2003 all over again, one decent season that the fans/kenny banks on duplicating, just to be disapointed.

Edited November 25, 2011 by VictoryMC98

[Balta1701]

I agree with this.. Cooper controls the SP/RP..

 

Also, I would like to add.. Zero Chance he repeats.. This is Loaiza 2003 all over again, one decent season that the fans/kenny banks on duplicating, just to be disapointed.

So Humber was juicing?

[kwolf68]

 

Humber struggled with injuries for a good part of his career. When he was "on" last year, he was sensational. The talent is there.