Will Gordo rebound in '12?

[chisox2334]

listening to the radio 670 the score, kenny willams cancelled conference call rongey wondering why lol

[macsandz]

Until Beckham can make the necessary adjustments to counter the league's adjustment to him he's gonna struggle. It's that simple. That's what separates production from persistent failure.

[Balta1701]

Until Beckham can make the necessary adjustments to counter the league's adjustment to him he's gonna struggle. It's that simple. That's what separates production from persistent failure.

What adjustment has the league made to him? He's lost the ability to time a solid fastball and he had that down brilliantly in 2009.

[Balta1701]

What adjustment has the league made to him? He's lost the ability to time a solid fastball and he had that down brilliantly in 2009.

I think we were genuinely surprised and excited when this didn't happen.

[joeynach]

Until Beckham can make the necessary adjustments to counter the league's adjustment to him he's gonna struggle. It's that simple. That's what separates production from persistent failure.

 

I have heard this explanation for Beckham's struggle but after my analysis I found this statement to be false. My interpretation is that Beckham's approach at the plate has become worse and worse since his solid 09. Numbers show the league has not pitched him differently, he still sees the same FB% (60%), SL% (17%), and CH% (8%) now (2011) as he did in 09 and 10. I have looked over his metrics on fangraphs time and time again and the numbers tell the story. Its his plate disciple and selection of pitches is what has hurt is offensive ability. All the other peripherals remain constant, his LD%, BABIP, GB/FB ratio, etc. The problem is his lack of patience and his poor plate disciple, he has seriously expanded his strike zone.

 

Look at his O Swing %, The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone. In 2009 it was 24.7%, by 2011 this was up to 37%. His raw swing % has also increased ( a sign of poor discipline), from 47% in 2009 to 51% in 2011. To make things worse his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone, known as O Contact %, has actually increased, from 59% in 2009 to 69% in 2011. This is bad b/c it reinforces a bad habit, making more contact on bad pitches out of zone is not a good thing, hes not Vlad Guerrero. Now add the other negative results of poor plate discipline into the equation. A decreased in walk rate, from 9.5% his rookie year to 6.2% in 2011. Same thing for K rate, as a result of his poor plate disciple he is striking out more too, from 15% in 2009 to just under 20% in 2011. Anyone who watched him this past year probably saw him swinging at a lot of poor pitches early in the count and constantly being in 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 counts, which usually ended in a K.

 

Beckham's problem is not talent, its not even mechanical, its mental. Its about his approach, its about self-recognition, coaching, and practice. If those who believe Greg Walker didnt help Beckham than they have have been right. Someone, the hitting coach probably, should have worked extra hard with him to be much much more patient and drill selective aggression into him as the approach he should take. Someone should have (and needs to) tell him that for his purposes they would rather see him take a few more pitches than usual, with the hopes of getting into more hitters counts, even if it leads to more K looking, then swing at the first three pitches (outside of the zone) and strikeout.

 

Beckham is still a young hitter and need to be coached up a bit, I cant say for sure what if anything Walker did for him, but its rather obvious to me after looking at fangraphs for 5 min what Beckhams problem is then it should be cake walk for a hitting coach. Right? This is one thing that really worried me with what I am calling our new assclown of a hitting coach.

 

What worries me is that Jeff Manto doesnt seem to value plate discipline and OBP, at least not from the comments hes made thus far. He doesnt seem to care for metrics and numbers, even basic numbers like O Swing %. If thats the case it would a fair assumption to make that he HAS NOT and WILL NOT recognize this repeated trend in Beckham's approach at the plate. The problem is fairly simple to fix and requires just a bit of statistical analysis, some recognition, and some practice. I firmly believe that if no one, coach or beckham himself, recognizes plate discipline as the main culprit and works to curb the issue, then I am afraid he will continue to decline into a Khalil Greene type player, all glove no bat, perfect for the Padres, bad for an AL club and just not that valuable.

Edited December 4, 2011 by joeynach

[greg775]

I used to root for Beckham like crazy, but now a deep malaise has set in and I couldn't care less anymore if he makes it or not.

 

I'm kind of the same way.

I love when he's hitting line drives, but last year was just pathetic except for his glove.

[joeynach]

I'm kind of the same way.

I love when he's hitting line drives, but last year was just pathetic except for his glove.

 

His Line Drive rate was actually the highest of his career in 2011, 20.3%. It was like 16.3% during his rookie year in 09.

[greg775]

His Line Drive rate was actually the highest of his career in 2011, 20.3%. It was like 16.3% during his rookie year in 09.

 

I guess a lot of them were hit right at people, then, cause his BA sucked big dog.

I can't knock the guy too much cause his glove was a sight to behold last year. Very good defensive player.

[joeynach]

I guess a lot of them were hit right at people, then, cause his BA sucked big dog.

I can't knock the guy too much cause his glove was a sight to behold last year. Very good defensive player.

 

Finally some statements with merit. His BABIP did take a hit, .276 last year (about league average), but still down from his .290-.295 BABIP from 09-10. One of the reasons his BA took such a huge dive was b/c his K rate went up. And from my analysis his K rate went up b/c of his poor plate discipline and volunatry expansion of the strike zone. Its all relative man.

 

Though you are right on about his glove, he posted a Fielding War last year of 4.9. Far higher than any of his previous years.

[VictoryMC98]

rebound from sucking to being avg.. Sure why not.

[knightni]

They hired a psychologist for the team last year. How'd that go?

Losing is a disease...

[joeynach]

rebound from sucking to being avg.. Sure why not.

Y

 

Eh sort of, certaintly that league average BA of .270 in 2009, but he psoted a .347 OBP and .460 SLG in 2009, good for .808 OPS. Id def call that above average.

[VictoryMC98]

Y

 

Eh sort of, certaintly that league average BA of .270 in 2009, but he psoted a .347 OBP and .460 SLG in 2009, good for .808 OPS. Id def call that above average.

 

And 2010, 2011?

 

The White Sox new version of ole mike caruso

[southsider2k5]

And 2010, 2011?

 

The White Sox new version of ole mike caruso

 

Apparently you never saw Mike Caruso play defense.

[VictoryMC98]

Apparently you never saw Mike Caruso play defense.

 

I did, I was comparing their hitting.

[southsider2k5]

I did, I was comparing their hitting.

 

That might actually be a worse comparison. Beckham out hit Carusos power career in the first half season he played in the majors.

[VictoryMC98]

That might actually be a worse comparison. Beckham out hit Carusos power career in the first half season he played in the majors.

 

How so.. Both couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat that was in lake MI... If you want to have a conversation who sucks more go ahead.

 

[southsider2k5]

How so.. Both couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat that was in lake MI... If you want to have a conversation who sucks more go ahead.

 

Beckham did more in his first 300 ABs than Caruso did in his 1100 AB career.

[VictoryMC98]

Beckham did more in his first 300 ABs than Caruso did in his 1100 AB career.

 

So you are comparing horse dung to cow dung... in the end its just Dung.

[SI1020]

I have heard this explanation for Beckham's struggle but after my analysis I found this statement to be false. My interpretation is that Beckham's approach at the plate has become worse and worse since his solid 09. Numbers show the league has not pitched him differently, he still sees the same FB% (60%), SL% (17%), and CH% (8%) now (2011) as he did in 09 and 10. I have looked over his metrics on fangraphs time and time again and the numbers tell the story. Its his plate disciple and selection of pitches is what has hurt is offensive ability. All the other peripherals remain constant, his LD%, BABIP, GB/FB ratio, etc. The problem is his lack of patience and his poor plate disciple, he has seriously expanded his strike zone.

 

Look at his O Swing %, The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone. In 2009 it was 24.7%, by 2011 this was up to 37%. His raw swing % has also increased ( a sign of poor discipline), from 47% in 2009 to 51% in 2011. To make things worse his contact rate on pitches outside of the zone, known as O Contact %, has actually increased, from 59% in 2009 to 69% in 2011. This is bad b/c it reinforces a bad habit, making more contact on bad pitches out of zone is not a good thing, hes not Vlad Guerrero. Now add the other negative results of poor plate discipline into the equation. A decreased in walk rate, from 9.5% his rookie year to 6.2% in 2011. Same thing for K rate, as a result of his poor plate disciple he is striking out more too, from 15% in 2009 to just under 20% in 2011. Anyone who watched him this past year probably saw him swinging at a lot of poor pitches early in the count and constantly being in 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 counts, which usually ended in a K.

 

Beckham's problem is not talent, its not even mechanical, its mental. Its about his approach, its about self-recognition, coaching, and practice. If those who believe Greg Walker didnt help Beckham than they have have been right. Someone, the hitting coach probably, should have worked extra hard with him to be much much more patient and drill selective aggression into him as the approach he should take. Someone should have (and needs to) tell him that for his purposes they would rather see him take a few more pitches than usual, with the hopes of getting into more hitters counts, even if it leads to more K looking, then swing at the first three pitches (outside of the zone) and strikeout.

 

Beckham is still a young hitter and need to be coached up a bit, I cant say for sure what if anything Walker did for him, but its rather obvious to me after looking at fangraphs for 5 min what Beckhams problem is then it should be cake walk for a hitting coach. Right? This is one thing that really worried me with what I am calling our new assclown of a hitting coach.

 

What worries me is that Jeff Manto doesnt seem to value plate discipline and OBP, at least not from the comments hes made thus far. He doesnt seem to care for metrics and numbers, even basic numbers like O Swing %. If thats the case it would a fair assumption to make that he HAS NOT and WILL NOT recognize this repeated trend in Beckham's approach at the plate. The problem is fairly simple to fix and requires just a bit of statistical analysis, some recognition, and some practice. I firmly believe that if no one, coach or beckham himself, recognizes plate discipline as the main culprit and works to curb the issue, then I am afraid he will continue to decline into a Khalil Greene type player, all glove no bat, perfect for the Padres, bad for an AL club and just not that valuable.

I feel the need to go back to school and get my PHD after reading all this. I will have to strongly argue that mechanics has nothing to do with Beckham's problems. His swing in college and for the most part his rookie year was compact and fluid, albeit with a slight load or hitch if you want to call it that. Now he has the same loopy hole that ruined so many other young Sox hitters. Even Joe Crede struggled with that and unfortunately his back gave out after he seemed to figure it out at the plate. Gordon Beckham now reminds me of another SEC phenom Warren Morris who flashed brilliance with the Pirates and then quickly faded out. If in fact this turns out to be the case with Beckham it will be both unfortunate and unforgivable. Beckham has lots of natural talent and there is no good reason for him to fail, like say a Joe Borchard, who had obvious flaws too big to overcome.

 

[ewokpelts]

NO.

[TaylorStSox]

I'm probably the only Sox fan that looks back on Borchard fondly. He as was probably my favorite prospect ever because of his tools. More importantly, he hit the 2 hardest balls I've ever seen. The first was a line drive at Skydome. I think it was the game he left early burning has hand sliding on the turf. The second was a bomb at the Cell that I swear hit above the concourse shower.

 

Regarding Beckham... hitch+ in between= inability to hit fastball. If he doesn't change his swing, he's going to have to get stronger to check his swing when he guesses wrong.

[Steve9347]

I'm probably the only Sox fan that looks back on Borchard fondly.

I would certainly hope there aren't any more out there.

[TaylorStSox]

I would certainly hope there aren't any more out there.

I enjoyed following him as a prospect. He's probably the last prospect I cared to follow. I didn't say I looked back on his career fondly.

[max power]

Hey borchard got us a pretty solid lefty in the pen for a number of years. I'll remember him fondly for that alone.