Sergio Santos traded to Toronto

[caulfield12]

Hard to say what to make of this...

 

If you look at the White Sox history of closers, we've always done pretty well with "under the radar" guys like Howry, Foulke, Takatsu, Hermanson, Jenks, Marte, etc.

 

There's no doubt that Santos has the ability to be an elite closer...although those last couple of blown saves against the Tigers were disconcerting.

 

Clearly, this dramatically lowers the odds of keeping Buehrle/Danks/Floyd.

 

They might as well just go with Crain and then Reed as the back-up option. Sale to the rotation.

 

Looking at the free agency lists, there's an incredible lack of depth in the LH spot. Darren Oliver's the best option out there, which means the haul for Matt Thornton might end up being better than expected.

 

 

Greg might be right in the end, just like Marty34. Ozzie Guillen might be in a very good position to go to the playoffs...and we're stuck in a bleak 3-4 year rebuilding process.

 

One thing's for sure, they better start coming up with an innovative, out of the box marketing campaign or they're going to be lucky to draw 1.5 million.

 

Kind of weird we've been targeting the Blue Jays' system so much for pitching.

Edited December 7, 2011 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Seems like both teams traded surpluses they had. I like this trade for both teams.

 

 

In the end, starting pitching has to trump relievers, even "cost-controlled" closers.

 

Santos makes a lot more sense for a contending team...

 

We just better be right on this kid, because the last Blue Jays' prospect looks more like the long man out of the pen/spot starter than anything resembling a frontline starter.

 

We'll just have to give Cooper a full spring training to see what tweaks he can make.

 

 

Williams has had so many trades not turn out the last 3-4 years that a few have to go in his direction eventually. This is the kind of move that former KW fans will be trumpeting....taking the likes of a kid we paid virtually nothing for an turning him into a 6 year replacement for John Danks/Gavin Floyd.

Edited December 7, 2011 by caulfield12

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Not only that but tomorrow the Phillies and Brewers will find out if Madsen and KRod will accept arb. They are not expected to - meaning 2 more teams needing closers.

 

I don't know maybe KW could have waited 2 more days? I doubt Toronto said this guy is only available today. Who knows, maybe KW could have gotten Toronto to throw in another prospect if he would have worked it for another week or two.

 

I don't understand him. But, I never understood a guy that would give away a 1st round draft pick to sign Adam Dunn. Forget the contract. I wouldn't have considered signing Dunn at the time solely because he cost a 1st round pick.

 

Look at David Ortiz, who is a far better hitter than Dunn and no team made him an offer because they refused to give up a pic. Now, he accepts arb. and Boston gets him on a 1 year deal - for probably less than the Sox will pay Dunn this year.

 

Up until this year KW had no need for prospects, draft picks, farm systems and such. Now, they've hired more scouts and he's gonna rebuild and get young prospects. It's nice that the Sox are only the 30th team in baseball to figure this out.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The Brewers don't need a closer.

[shago]

Santos -- OVER-RATED (clap, clap, clap) OVERRRR-RATED....

 

Dude was a SS prospect. Love the kid, good luck to him. Did a really classy interview on Comcast post announcement. That said, we all know the holy grail is starting pitching in the AL and we got a kid who can throw strikes. That adds huge franchise value because ultimately he will be a middle+ starter in the bigs and that's worth a lot more than a flash-in-the-pan closer we don't need during a rebuild.

[CyAcosta41]

Yeah, Kenny would rather just target guys on his list and acquire them with the pieces he has.

 

I don't really have an issue with either approach, honestly.

 

 

Except that the "find/make your market" approach and KW's "go balls-out after your target" approach aren't mutually exclusive. You can do both. Many of us believe that KW stares down his intended target worse than a high school quarterback. He always (eventually) gets his man, right? If we see this, most of his peers certainly do too. Kenny is clearly not the patient sort -- he shows his hand and the adversary will generally set the price.

 

I have a major issue with this approach for many reasons, principally that it's so hit-or-miss dependent on the scouting behind the target. We've had great successes with the likes of Thornton, Floyd, and Danks (although the great Nick Massett was supposedly the number one target of that deal); we've had horrible failures with Swisher, Marquez, Flowers, Teahen, and many others. At best, KW and group have proven to be middle-of-the-pack talent evaluators and targeting basically one "must have" per deal is incredibly risky.

 

But the biggest issue I have with it is simple opportunity cost. Great, have your discussions about your target, put that info in your hip-pocket, and then like any reasonable person doing due diligence, get a sense of the overall market. You may find out that something a heck of a lot better than your target exists once you start looking around. Maybe you get an even better "target." Or, maybe you get a similar target, plus a few more players/prospects allowing for a better chance of striking gold every now and then. And when the targeted team senses that you're shopping around, then maybe you have the ability to start extracting target plus X from a team that previously thought they had you by the short ones ... every time. Gee, wouldn't that be a nice change once in a while?

 

In fairness, I don't KNOW for a fact that this is the way KW and the Sox operate. I truly hope they don't. But, it sure seems like this is at least somewhat accurate. It certainly is what a heck of a lot of baseball execs believe (at least as relayed through admittedly sometimes unreliable writers).

 

The Orioles are also in the market for relievers, but they were not aware that Santos was available before he was traded.

 

Not aware? Sheesh. Something like THIS should never happen. And per Peter Gammons, the Red Sox might have been interested in Santos as well. A team with a limited warchest and a desert-like farm simply MUST maximize value with each and every transaction. The Yank-Mes and Sawks can cover their mistakes with wads of green, but we don't have the resources to do that. We have to be smarter. And we certainly can't be dumber.

 

 

 

 

[Real]

If we're rebuilding (and as such, won't be in contention for the next 2-3 years), then you can't judge this trade in terms of the talent we received, because the kid is just a prospect and we aren't able to predict the future. He's a top prospect though

 

You can judge this trade based on if you think we could've gotten more in return for Santos, that's really the only argue point. Jays fans on MLBTR are echoing the exact same sentiments as Sox fans are, over half of the posts from both sides of the fence are saying "Both teams win in this trade"

 

I kind of agree

[Marty34]

I've seen scouting reports that have Molina's ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter. It's a fair return for Santos who is no sure thing for 2012. I think there's a good chance Santos ERA is over 4 next year.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Marty34

[Real]

AA interview with MLB.com, with some Sergio Highlights

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=mlb...opic_id=8877962

 

Wish him well in TOR, he was one of my favorite Sox players

[WHITESOXRANDY]

The Brewers don't need a closer.

 

 

You're right. i forgot about Axford. But, there are definitely a handful of teams that would have been interested in Santos and once again KW acts impetuously and that's why so many of his deals have failed.

[PolishPrince34]

I like getting Molina back, but come on Kenny we should of received another solid prospect in return. 3 years- 8.25 million. It will be very interesting to compare how much Billy Beane will get for Bailey. Let me guess it will be a lot more than Molina. Kenny always jumps the gun to early on his trades.

[SOXOBAMA]

I like getting Molina back, but come on Kenny we should of received another solid prospect in return. 3 years- 8.25 million. It will be very interesting to compare how much Billy Beane will get for Bailey. Let me guess it will be a lot more than Molina. Kenny always jumps the gun to early on his trades.

 

Bailey is a much better player..

[CyAcosta41]

To be concise and hopefully clear ...

 

I have no problem with Molina the prospect per se -- who knows, Williams/Paddy might be spot-on about the kid and a strong 2/3 major league starter will always trump a reliever like Santos (which is also why the Sox must see what they have in Chris Sale, the STARTER).

 

Instead, what I have a problem with is a PROCESS where KW (seemingly) puts on his blinders and goes after his guy without doing the due diligence of seeing what else might be out there.

 

If we thought the Sox were particularly astute in talent evaluation plus talent cultivation, then I suppose targeting a "chosen one" (while always risky) might be alright. But, I can't imagine anyone really believes the Sox are upper echelon in either talent evaluation or cultivation. That being the case, instead of one target for each of Santos, Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Thornton, and maybe Ramirez, how about creating an auction mentality and wind-up with 10, 12, 15 prospects or current young big leaguers for those six. Yes, we need impact players, but we desperately need depth as well.

[JorgeFabregas]

I like it.

[Real]

in that video i posted on the last page, AA said he wasn't even open to dealing Molina originally. He followed up with that Kenny wasn't open to discussing Sergio either, took over a month for them to agree that the deal would be good for both teams

Edited December 7, 2011 by Real

[caulfield12]

Except that the "find/make your market" approach and KW's "go balls-out after your target" approach aren't mutually exclusive. You can do both. Many of us believe that KW stares down his intended target worse than a high school quarterback. He always (eventually) gets his man, right? If we see this, most of his peers certainly do too. Kenny is clearly not the patient sort -- he shows his hand and the adversary will generally set the price.

 

I have a major issue with this approach for many reasons, principally that it's so hit-or-miss dependent on the scouting behind the target. We've had great successes with the likes of Thornton, Floyd, and Danks (although the great Nick Massett was supposedly the number one target of that deal); we've had horrible failures with Swisher, Marquez, Flowers, Teahen, and many others. At best, KW and group have proven to be middle-of-the-pack talent evaluators and targeting basically one "must have" per deal is incredibly risky.

 

But the biggest issue I have with it is simple opportunity cost. Great, have your discussions about your target, put that info in your hip-pocket, and then like any reasonable person doing due diligence, get a sense of the overall market. You may find out that something a heck of a lot better than your target exists once you start looking around. Maybe you get an even better "target." Or, maybe you get a similar target, plus a few more players/prospects allowing for a better chance of striking gold every now and then. And when the targeted team senses that you're shopping around, then maybe you have the ability to start extracting target plus X from a team that previously thought they had you by the short ones ... every time. Gee, wouldn't that be a nice change once in a while?

 

In fairness, I don't KNOW for a fact that this is the way KW and the Sox operate. I truly hope they don't. But, it sure seems like this is at least somewhat accurate. It certainly is what a heck of a lot of baseball execs believe (at least as relayed through admittedly sometimes unreliable writers).

 

 

 

Not aware? Sheesh. Something like THIS should never happen. And per Peter Gammons, the Red Sox might have been interested in Santos as well. A team with a limited warchest and a desert-like farm simply MUST maximize value with each and every transaction. The Yank-Mes and Sawks can cover their mistakes with wads of green, but we don't have the resources to do that. We have to be smarter. And we certainly can't be dumber.

 

 

But look at some of the guys he has targeted and succeeded with:

 

Danks

Thornton

Floyd

Jenks

Santos

Alexei Ramirez

Iguchi

Pods

Hermanson

Thome

Dye

Viciedo

 

I don't think it's fair to just assume the Orioles were going to provide us with Jeremy Reed/Miguel Olivo/Mike Morse.

 

Marquez was viewed at best as a tainted prospect who might turn into Jon Garland-Lite but was far from a can't miss at the time we got him.

 

Edwin Jackson performed better for the Sox than any other team he's pitched for.

 

Teahen, the two Swisher deals, the Braves' deal (although it was just as much about getting rid of Javy and Lillibridge was a huge plus in 2011) and the Daniel Hudson move have been the primary ones to upset fans. And of course Dunn, Rios and Peavy. With the exception of the risky Rios move, the majority of people in baseball were in favor of both the Dunn and Peavy moves...

 

Masset wasn't the centerpiece, it was clearly Danks. It's just that there was a lot of hype after the trade that Nick could supposedly hit 96-99 mph and might be a good closer candidate. We heard the same type of hype about Jon Adkins after the Durham fiasco, Felix Diaz, etc.

 

 

 

 

[VictoryMC98]

Bailey is a much better player..

 

Agreed.

[caulfield12]

Bailey is a much better player..

 

 

Since when has Billy Beane been a very good general manager the last 4-5 years?

 

While has probably hasn't been AS BAD as Williams, he's clearly been in the bottom 50% of MLB GM's over that time span.

[shago]

I like getting Molina back, but come on Kenny we should of received another solid prospect in return. 3 years- 8.25 million. It will be very interesting to compare how much Billy Beane will get for Bailey. Let me guess it will be a lot more than Molina. Kenny always jumps the gun to early on his trades.

Even with his injuries, Santos is not Andrew Bailey. SS will have a quicker decline than Thigpen...

 

[caulfield12]

Clearly, they felt that the odds going forward with Crain/Reed were just as good, if not better, than with Sergio.

 

Time will tell.

 

The one thing we're doing is building up depth in the most important area for any organization, youung/quality starting pitching.

 

In the meantime, there's always the possibility that Dunn/Peavy/Rios actually perform. There's no other choice but to wait it out for another 3-4 months with them.

 

They can still get a haul for Thornton, Danks/Floyd, Quentin and POSSIBLY Ramirez, although I'd rather hold on to Alexei for now...at least through the first half of 2012.

[SOXOBAMA]

Since when has Billy Beane been a very good general manager the last 4-5 years?

 

While has probably hasn't been AS BAD as Williams, he's clearly been in the bottom 50% of MLB GM's over that time span.

 

Beane has been a lot worse than Kenny.. He gave up on Carlos Gonzalez..

[VictoryMC98]

Beane has been a lot worse than Kenny.. He gave up on Carlos Gonzalez..

 

One bad deal doesn't make you a worst GM..

 

Kenny gave up on Gio Gonzo.. and Foulke..

Edited December 7, 2011 by VictoryMC98

[caulfield12]

One bad deal doesn't make you a worst GM..

 

Kenny gave up on Gio Gonzo.. and Foulke.. I would love to see Kenny be 1/2 the GM Beane is with a limited payroll.

 

But Keith Foulke also removed himself from the closer's position.

 

Let's not forget what Olivo (leading to F. Garcia) and Cotts contributed...

 

They obviously made the wrong move with Swisher, but Ryan Sweeney was never going to be more than a 4th outfielder for the Sox.

 

It will be interesting to see if DeLosSantos ever becomes more than a set-up guy...but clearly KW got fleeced with that move.

[SOXOBAMA]

One bad deal doesn't make you a worst GM..

 

Kenny gave up on Gio Gonzo.. and Foulke.. I would love to see Kenny be 1/2 the GM Beane is with a limited payroll.

 

Beane has made a lot more bad deals than just 1. He also gave up on Nelson Cruz, Ethier and a few others.

 

he traded Ethier for Milton Bradley

Edited December 7, 2011 by SOXOBAMA

[VictoryMC98]

But Keith Foulke also removed himself from the closer's position.

 

Let's not forget what Olivo (leading to F. Garcia) and Cotts contributed...

 

They obviously made the wrong move with Swisher, but Ryan Sweeney was never going to be more than a 4th outfielder for the Sox.

 

It will be interesting to see if DeLosSantos ever becomes more than a set-up guy...but clearly KW got fleeced with that move.

 

Foulke didn't remove himself.. If I recall correctly.

 

Let's just say this.. if given the choice, with all things as is.. I would take Beane over KW to rebuild this organization. IMO Beane can do KW job, I don't have faith in KW to do Beane's