Sergio Santos traded to Toronto

[CanOfCorn]

#18 in their system? That doesn't sound right.

 

But #1 in our hearts. Molina is now probably top 5 prospect in the WS system, possible top 3. It's a good start. I could care less about Santos, I think the league was catching up to him. And please, no more, "I think the Sox COULD have gotten more for him," stuff. You don't know that, Kenny doesn't know that, other GMs dont' know that. I'm not defending Kenny, I'm just saying, nobody knows what you COULD get for a player until that player's been done got.

[SoxFan1]

Chicago Tribune Scouting Report

 

This report is less than flattering - basically says the Sox over overrating this guy because the guy they got from Toronto likes him, and that he projects as a back of the rotation starter.

Everyone has different opinions.

 

One report said a good #2 starter. The other said a good #3. Keith Law says he's a reliever. This says he's a back of the rotation guy. Let's give the kid a chance.

[Soxfest]

Chicago Tribune Scouting Report

 

This report is less than flattering - basically says the Sox over overrating this guy because the guy they got from Toronto likes him, and that he projects as a back of the rotation starter.

This gets worse by the minute!

[kwolf68]

Funny you should mention that he's a converted infielder.......

 

 

I suppose so. Haha...still Santos is at least proven at the major league level.

 

Again, my problem is these trades seem to lack levity. Kenny trades multiples of our prospects (from a system that has never been that good since he got here) and we can't get something like that on the flipside?

 

I just don't understand him. I suppose he is living off 2005 like Ozzie did.

[DirtySox]

Reposting for the ledge jumpers.

 

 

#18 in their system? That doesn't sound right.

 

It isn't right. It was last year's ranking. BA hasn't done 2012 for the Jays yet. Sickels didn't have him on his top 20 last year, and he moved all the way to number 2 for 2012.

[MurcieOne]

Any chance we can sneak Rios in Sergio's luggage on his way up north? Return to sender? Something? Blech.

[fathom]

I suppose so. Haha...still Santos is at least proven at the major league level.

 

Again, my problem is these trades seem to lack levity. Kenny trades multiples of our prospects (from a system that has never been that good since he got here) and we can't get something like that on the flipside?

 

I just don't understand him. I suppose he is living off 2005 like Ozzie did.

 

We mentioned before that KW gets fixated on certain players, and in my opinion, doesn't really care about getting "throw-ins" included in deals that would help add to the organizational depth.

[sircaffey]

#18 in their system? That doesn't sound right.

I don't think Baseball America is as high on him as others. He wasn't in the top 20 for the Florida State League (but said he was "close"). Seems like they are not convinced he's a SP long-term, being a 2 pitch pitcher currently.

[bigruss]

I suppose so. Haha...still Santos is at least proven at the major league level.

 

Again, my problem is these trades seem to lack levity. Kenny trades multiples of our prospects (from a system that has never been that good since he got here) and we can't get something like that on the flipside?

 

I just don't understand him. I suppose he is living off 2005 like Ozzie did.

He offered to resign, JR said no and to stay.

 

They are trying to do what is best for this organization fiscally and baseball wise for the future.

[CanOfCorn]

I suppose so. Haha...still Santos is at least proven at the major league level.

 

Again, my problem is these trades seem to lack levity. Kenny trades multiples of our prospects (from a system that has never been that good since he got here) and we can't get something like that on the flipside?

 

I just don't understand him. I suppose he is living off 2005 like Ozzie did.

 

He's a converted outfielder that seems to throw a hamburgers-ton of strikes. Santos gets people out by being OUT of the strikezone. The league was catching on to that and waited on him. I like Sergio, and I wish him all the best, but, welcome to the fold, Nestor Molina!

[Harry Chappas]

The problem with a youth movement is Peavy, Dunn and Rios are going nowhere so the payroll is not dropping as much as the attendance will.

 

I have no issue with a youth movement but what are they going to do with those 3?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Marty wins? I just logged back on. Holy s***.

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...ebuild-process/

 

The White Sox traded Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays for prospect Nestor Molina today. It was a bold move, not only because of the particulars of the trade, but because of the implications. For a hyper-competitive General Manager like Kenny Williams, it must be hard to admit that it’s time for a rebuild. At least he seems comfortable with it.

 

The trade at first seems like a head-scratcher. Santos is signed to three-year, $8.25M contract through 2014, with three options that could raise the deal to $30 million over the next six years. Even among relievers, who don’t usually average more than two wins a season, the contract should remain reasonable throughout. It’s a team-friendly homecoming for Santos, who was an infielder in the Toronto organization before he was converted — successfully — to relief in Chicago. Why trade such a valuable piece?

 

The return is exciting. Molina was given a B+ ranking from John Sickels, who rated him the second-best prospect in the Jays’ organization. In 130.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last year, Molina struck out 148 batters against a mere 16 walks. At 23 next year, he might only need a little more seasoning at Double-A before he can join the big leagues.

 

If he stays a starter, Molina will only need to be worth about as much as Paul Maholm has been worth over the last six years (13.2 WAR) in order to surpass Santos’ absolute value. Paul Maholm never had a minor league K/BB rate like Molina’s and was never a top-two prospect for the Pirates, but it’s still possible that Molina as a starter doesn’t achieve those heights.

 

And it is this uncertainty that shifts the needle back to equal. Molina may be a starter, or he may be a reliever. Scouts are divided on his stuff — is he a pitchability guy that has great control and decent stuff, or is he something more — and it’s even possible that a little recoil in his delivery might send him to the bullpen, in which case the value on this trade shifts towards Toronto.

 

One last point about the trade itself. As good as Santos’ contract seems, $30 million over six years would only provide great surplus value if he continues to average 1.6 WAR per season for the next six years. He’s only 28 years old, but the fact remains that only four closers — J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon — have averaged 1.6+ WAR over the past six years. Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Rafael Betancourt and Jonathan Broxton have all managed over 1.5 WAR, and with Santos’ strikeout rate he could join the group.

 

If we give Santos nine WAR over the next six years, and $10-15 million in surplus value at current dollar/WAR numbers, the deal seems fair. In 2008, Victor Wang found that the surplus value on a Grade B prospect from Sickels was $7.3 million. Add the plus in, and inflation, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to call the trade fair.

 

But the questions still remains: why start the rebuilding process by trading Santos, the most reasonable and valuable trade chip the White Sox might have? The answer might lie with perception.

 

Once a team begins a rebuild process openly, the vultures begin to swarm. Going forward, the White Sox will receive buy-low offers on virtually every one of their major league players on veteran contracts. They may complete some of those trades, but the perception of their team as rebuilding will shift the power towards the buyers.

 

So if you have one really good trade chip on a team mostly made up of also-ran veterans on iffy contracts, you trade your one good piece first. For the best prospect you can find. And then you announce that you are rebuilding, so that you can field the less exciting offers for the rest of your team.

 

[Flash Tizzle]

Chicago Tribune Scouting Report

 

This report is less than flattering - basically says the Sox over overrating this guy because the guy they got from Toronto likes him, and that he projects as a back of the rotation starter.

Ok, meanwhile Santos is here saving games for a mediocre team under a team friendly contract.

 

Sure, I would have like to receive more; but as someone else pointed out it wasn't a great market for closers. Even so, we'll have other pieces to deal soon.

[fathom]

The problem with a youth movement is Peavy, Dunn and Rios are going nowhere so the payroll is not dropping as much as the attendance will.

 

I have no issue with a youth movement but what are they going to do with those 3?

 

Thankfully Peavy's in last year of his deal

[Soxbadger]

Santos had some issues with lefties (723 ops v 427 against righties), its possible that the Sox felt that Santos was at his peak value and thus traded what would be a depreciating asset.

 

Not the guy you expect to be traded, but if you arent serious about winning you dont really need a closer.

[bigruss]

The problem with a youth movement is Peavy, Dunn and Rios are going nowhere so the payroll is not dropping as much as the attendance will.

 

I have no issue with a youth movement but what are they going to do with those 3?

Play them.

 

Hope they produce.

 

Look to trade them at the deadline if ^ happens.

[Flash Tizzle]

The problem with a youth movement is Peavy, Dunn and Rios are going nowhere so the payroll is not dropping as much as the attendance will.

 

I have no issue with a youth movement but what are they going to do with those 3?

Lose with dignity I hope.

[StrangeSox]

Santos had some issues with lefties (723 ops v 427 against righties), its possible that the Sox felt that Santos was at his peak value and thus traded what would be a depreciating asset.

 

Not the guy you expect to be traded, but if you arent serious about winning you dont really need a closer.

 

I guess that's what I keep coming back to. The Sox have zero reason to hold onto Santos for the next couple of years, even if his is cheap, if they can get something of value for him.

[iamshack]

We mentioned before that KW gets fixated on certain players, and in my opinion, doesn't really care about getting "throw-ins" included in deals that would help add to the organizational depth.

I agree....he doesn't nibble or pester for every last piece he can get. He overpays to get the deal done all the time.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

Who was it that said trading Santos would send a negative message to players in the future looking to sign extensions here? lol.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Jordan4life

[kwolf68]

 

I like the idea someone had about sticking Rios in Santos' luggage (return to sender).

 

Anyway...I'm over it. Like the player, don't like the return, but I've been a White Sox fan since the 1970s and nothing will change that, so I'll wait on our next move in the meetings and see how the team starts looking.

 

 

[SOXOBAMA]

I hope that Atlanta deal goes through

[fathom]

I hope that Atlanta deal goes through

 

What deal?

[RockRaines]

Who was it that said trading Santos would send a negative message to players in the future looking to sign extensions here? lol.

Classic "increase value" move apparently.