Sox Post Winter Meetings

[3E8]

KW was also at a function organized for the purpose of facilitating convenient conversations between himself and other general managers. It's not like he has to list all the teams in alphabetical order and start calling though the list to gauge interest. Who knows exactly what process KW went through. But when the team whose closer signed the biggest offseason contract (for relievers) to play elsewhere says they weren't made aware of Sergio's availability, questions get raised.

[Balta1701]

Doesn't differ from Williams not calling Boston or Baltimore.

Yes it does, enormously, both of those teams would be willing to give up players to take on Sergio, the Sox would not be willing (or able) to give up plyaers to take on Gio.

[Marty34]

What if Williams was planning on asking Boston for the same players for Danks as he was for Santos? If he offers the Red Sox Santos, he loses leverage on Danks.

[Balta1701]

What if Williams was planning on asking Boston for the same players for Danks as he was for Santos? If he offers the Red Sox Santos, he loses leverage on Danks.

Then, um, trade Danks. The team has to trade Danks. The team doesn't have to trade Santos. Take the players from Boston for Danks and then move on and see what else you can get for Santos.

[Marty34]

Yes it does, enormously, both of those teams would be willing to give up players to take on Sergio, the Sox would not be willing (or able) to give up plyaers to take on Gio.

 

No, the Sox would be willing to give players up for Gonzalez, Beane probably would not want them though.

[Marty34]

Then, um, trade Danks. The team has to trade Danks. The team doesn't have to trade Santos. Take the players from Boston for Danks and then move on and see what else you can get for Santos.

 

Point is, Danks value is less than Santos. If Williams asks for player A from the Red Sox for Santos, he is not going to get him for Danks most likely.

 

[Balta1701]

Point is, Danks value is less than Santos. If Williams asks for player A from the Red Sox for Santos, he is not going to get him for Danks most likely.

Then either don't trade Santos, or don't rush to trade Santos and get done what needs to happen with Danks first.

 

Effective negotiation tactics aren't as obscure as you're trying to make them out to be.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'm not sure how I feel about the Sox being so trade friendly w/ the Blue Jays.

 

One 1 hand you have a team with a GREAT farm system and tons of good prospects to trade, and on the other hand you are dealing with AA who is a damn smart guy and has done pretty well in almost every trade he has made. So when I see the Sox and Jays are discussing a trade, I have to be cautiously optimistic.

[Knackattack]

I'm not sure how I feel about the Sox being so trade friendly w/ the Blue Jays.

 

One 1 hand you have a team with a GREAT farm system and tons of good prospects to trade, and on the other hand you are dealing with AA who is a damn smart guy and has done pretty well in almost every trade he has made. So when I see the Sox and Jays are discussing a trade, I have to be cautiously optimistic.

 

Kenny has always tried to be the guy that plays it fair with his GM buddies though, if not be the swindler. The only trades he really lost on hardcore would be Swisher and maybe Javy, but other than that he struck gold with Danks, Q and Gavin. I do trust KW to put a good product out there simply because he has done it before, they're giving him help with the prospects which is what he needed lol.

[caulfield12]

Stilll think it's better to get that ONE guy your guys are really confident than the 3-for-1 type trades that usually don't pan out.

 

For every Colon/Sizemore/Phillips/Cliff Lee or Bonser-Nathan-Liriano for AJ deal that goes awry, there are 25 that don't work very well.

 

We just brought a guy over from TOR who knows their system, particularly their Latin American/Venezuelan prospects, intimately. Probably why KW was so poorly-informed when he made the announcement about winter ball, he was putting trust in his staff. Wonder where Hahn was on all of this, the supposed Boy Wonder?

 

I think we're all a little gunshy because of the 3 way deal with OAK for Swisher and Hudson/Holmberg, but, other than those 2, there have never been huge deals that went against KW since the Fogg/Wells/Lowe one at the beginning of his GM career.

 

If you look at Reed/Morse/Olivo, none of those guys panned out long-term for the M's, and they weren't able to get either a position or much power out of Michael. Jury's still out on the PED's part of his career resurgence...we'll see how long-term it actually lasts.

 

Obviously, they targed two specific guys (Stewart and Molina) who they liked the most. It's almost never going to correlate with BA or BP or the scouting reports because our scouts should be 2-3 steps ahead of those guys and us casual baseball fans, I'd have to hope.

 

It does seem we "bought" Molina at his peak, rather than buying Chris Marquez/Lance Broadway/Kyle McCulloch on the downturn. No problem there. Let's say we had the chance to get the Blue Jays' version of three Mitchells/Trayce Thompson's in A ball. Odds are better when you take one starting pitcher talent that Cooper feels he can work with, rather than 3 raw/toolsy position players who are on the mend.

 

The other thing about those position prospects (that Boston supposedly would have offered) is that MAYBE we're looking solely at starting pitching prospects to replenish the system after Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Peavy depart and Boston or the Yankees don't/didn't have anything we wanted (or, most importantly, that they were willing to part with for an unproven closer in one of the most important markets in MLB). We might have been able to get a Josh Reddick, but we already had/have DeAza/Viciedo/Rios etc. at that position.

 

If you look at our offense, we're pretty much set around the diamond....we actually don't have a place for DeAza to play everyday, despite what he accomplished last season.

Edited December 11, 2011 by caulfield12

[Marty34]

Then either don't trade Santos, or don't rush to trade Santos and get done what needs to happen with Danks first.

 

Effective negotiation tactics aren't as obscure as you're trying to make them out to be.

 

Debating KW's trade negotiation tactics is a chicken/egg argument because we aren't privy to all information, but let me leave it at this.

 

I don't necessarily agree with the premise that Danks had to go before Santos. I believe Santos is at his peak value and it was at least as important that he be traded as it is Danks.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Kenny has always tried to be the guy that plays it fair with his GM buddies though, if not be the swindler. The only trades he really lost on hardcore would be Swisher and maybe Javy, but other than that he struck gold with Danks, Q and Gavin. I do trust KW to put a good product out there simply because he has done it before, they're giving him help with the prospects which is what he needed lol.

 

I don't get how people can characterize the Javy deal as anything but a fair trade for both sides, if not a slight advantage for the Sox. Lillibridge, Flowers, and Gilmore.

[Balta1701]

I don't necessarily agree with the premise that Danks had to go before Santos. I believe Santos is at his peak value and it was at least as important that he be traded as it is Danks.

I can entirely accept this premise as possible...however, Santos's current value is less than what he was traded for. Other teams have chimed in publicly to make that clear. That's the mistake. You can't work your way around that.

[WHITESOXRANDY]

I don't get how people can characterize the Javy deal as anything but a fair trade for both sides, if not a slight advantage for the Sox. Lillibridge, Flowers, and Gilmore.

 

 

Are you serious? A utility man and a backup catcher for a very solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher?

 

Ask your daddy which GM is gonna pick his pocket next?

[Disco72]

There's a big difference in trades that KW makes. When he "shops" a guy (e.g., the Javy and Swisher trades), he's looking for the best return. Those haven't turned out great for the Sox. When KW "targets" a guy, he almost always trades someone we don't expect to be traded (e.g., Bmac or Santos), and the process is different. Who knows what will happen with Molina, but the early trade accounts indicated that KW was targeting Molina rather than shopping Santos. It appears that of the trade assets the Sox had (Quentin, Danks, Beckham, etc), AA wanted Santos if he was going to give up Molina, KW's target.

[Balta1701]

There's a big difference in trades that KW makes. When he "shops" a guy (e.g., the Javy and Swisher trades), he's looking for the best return. Those haven't turned out great for the Sox. When KW "targets" a guy, he almost always trades someone we don't expect to be traded (e.g., Bmac or Santos), and the process is different. Who knows what will happen with Molina, but the early trade accounts indicated that KW was targeting Molina rather than shopping Santos. It appears that of the trade assets the Sox had (Quentin, Danks, Beckham, etc), AA wanted Santos if he was going to give up Molina, KW's target.

Both the Javy and Swisher trades received a sizeable return; the Sox saved >$30 million between those 2 deals, and that was with both of them coming off of garbage finishes in 2008.

 

Complaining about those deals is like Toronto complaining that they didn't get anything back for Rios in 2009.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Both the Javy and Swisher trades received a sizeable return; the Sox saved >$30 million between those 2 deals, and that was with both of them coming off of garbage finishes in 2008.

 

Complaining about those deals is like Toronto complaining that they didn't get anything back for Rios in 2009.

 

Pretty much. Javy saved us a bunch of money, and 2 of the 3 players we received are contributing to the team for multiple years.

[caulfield12]

Pretty much. Javy saved us a bunch of money, and 2 of the 3 players we received are contributing to the team for multiple years.

 

 

Are you projecting Tyler Flowers to be the starter in 2013 with that comment?

 

Or Santos Rodriguez? Gilmore?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Are you projecting Tyler Flowers to be the starter in 2013 with that comment?

 

Or Santos Rodriguez? Gilmore?

 

Who else is in line behind AJ? Dan Black?

[caulfield12]

Who else is in line behind AJ? Dan Black?

 

 

We're going to clear a lot of payroll space in the next 12-18 months. I would give Flowers a 33% chance at being the 2013 opening day catcher.

 

We'll see how he does this year as the primary back-up. At AJ's age, he should get at least 25-35 starts, if not 40. There's always the possibility that they start playing Flowers against every LHP and make it a straight platoon.

Edited December 12, 2011 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

We're going to clear a lot of payroll space in the next 12-18 months. I would give Flowers a 33% chance at being the 2013 opening day catcher.

 

We'll see how he does this year as the primary back-up. At AJ's age, he should get at least 25-35 starts, if not 40. There's always the possibility that they start playing Flowers against every LHP and make it a straight platoon.

 

I'm just saying, until he isn't in the plans, then he is still in line to contribute to his team in the future. We can't assume we will resign AJ or get a new catcher via trade for Free Agency. If you look at Baseball America's "2015 Projected line-ups", I would be willing to bet it includes Flowers.

[caulfield12]

I'm just saying, until he isn't in the plans, then he is still in line to contribute to his team in the future. We can't assume we will resign AJ or get a new catcher via trade for Free Agency. If you look at Baseball America's "2015 Projected line-ups", I would be willing to bet it includes Flowers.

 

Except it also includes Morel, Ramirez and Beckham as the infield, I'd be willing to bet.

 

Want to take the odds on that actually being the case in 2015? Well, who really knows...right?

 

Just as easy to pencil someone like Gilmore/Trayce Thompson/Viciedo into the 1B slot in that year's projection.

 

 

But you're right, could be anyone. Maybe Phegley makes a miraculous recovery and surpasses Flowers in 2012, who knows. Tyler definitely started out well with the bat, then faded as time wore on, not unlike Viciedo his first time up in 2010.

[iamshack]

I can entirely accept this premise as possible...however, Santos's current value is less than what he was traded for. Other teams have chimed in publicly to make that clear. That's the mistake. You can't work your way around that.

I think you're trying to turn this into a much more scientific process than it really is.

 

These are a bunch of guys that talk all the time, know what eachother are trying to do, and know who they are willing to move or aren't willing to move.

 

It's not like Kenny has no idea what Baltimore or Boston has to offer. Our FO has a list of the assets they want from every team and I am sure they are pretty sure they know who they can reasonably get and who they can't. I doubt much was to be gained by calling some of these other teams to ask "one more time" if they have changed their stance.

[Disco72]

Both the Javy and Swisher trades received a sizeable return; the Sox saved >$30 million between those 2 deals, and that was with both of them coming off of garbage finishes in 2008.

 

Complaining about those deals is like Toronto complaining that they didn't get anything back for Rios in 2009.

 

I'm not complaining about them as much as I'm trying to point out that there is not just one kind of trade where a GM tries to "maximize value" for a player. Different trades have different purposes, as you point out with the money saved from players many people (in addition to KW, apparently) wanted gone.

[caulfield12]

This kind of dissection of a KW trade would never have happened before August/September of 2009.

 

Now, it's pretty much par for the course.

 

Certainly...he's not infallible, but everyone's in agreement with most of the moves he's made during his recent entire post 2001-2002 tenure except for Teahen, picking up Rios, both Swisher deals, Hudson/Holmberg and now Santos/Molina.

 

Other than that, even the Dunn and Peavy deals had a majority on their side when they were made. Or in 2010 when Rios was playing well. It's easy to say we were against these maneuvers in retrospect, but not many were.

 

Now the scale has tipped over to the other side where the majority are against a KW trade simply because it's a KW move and quite a few of his post-2008 moves have failed, so it's easier to take the pessimistic view.

 

In reality, nobody knows what will/could happen. Nobody knows for sure that Daniel Hudson would have pitched AS well for the White Sox, or that Kip Wells would have put up the same numbers in a competitive AL Central division that he did with the Pirates in the first 2-3 years after he was banished there.

Edited December 12, 2011 by caulfield12