Sox Post Winter Meetings

[thehugeunit]

I posted this trade a few days ago in a different thread:

 

"Floyd and Thornton + $2M for Jarrod Parker, Adam Eaton, and Ryan Wheeler."

 

I hope this means the A's are holding onto Gio.

I would think that means they're more likely to deal Gio. Beane will deal him if he gets what he wants. I think thats a piss poor return for Cahill tho. I love Parker but I thought they could of gotten more.

[Eminor3rd]

I would think that means they're more likely to deal Gio. Beane will deal him if he gets what he wants. I think thats a piss poor return for Cahill tho. I love Parker but I thought they could of gotten more.

 

Man, I disagree. Parker is LEGIT. One of the top SP prospects in the majors. If you consider Breslow a salary move, I think that's a solid package.

[ScottyDo]

I would think that means they're more likely to deal Gio. Beane will deal him if he gets what he wants. I think thats a piss poor return for Cahill tho. I love Parker but I thought they could of gotten more.

Here's the thing about fire sales: rarely do you see trades like Liriano/Nathan for Pierzynski. Most of the time, people feel like the prospect haul that comes back for the proven player is "less than they could have gotten". The thing is, if you're saying "they could have gotten more" for 80% of trades...well, then, the market has spoken, and these GM's probably COULDN'T have gotten more.

 

I only mention this because of the stink over Santos, and all the speculative insistence that we "could" have gotten more. I'm aware that he appears not to have contacted the Red Sox, but it's really an unprovable point to ascribe value to how much a player could have netted in a trade.

[Balta1701]

but it's really an unprovable point to ascribe value to how much a player could have netted in a trade.

But there's still that one thing out there. With Santos...we did not have to move him. We have to move Danks, we have to move Quentin, we didn't have to move Santos if we didn't get a return big enough to say "that was a good deal".

[CyAcosta41]

But there's still that one thing out there. With Santos...we did not have to move him. We have to move Danks, we have to move Quentin, we didn't have to move Santos if we didn't get a return big enough to say "that was a good deal".

 

Yes. This. Bingo.

 

Maybe "the market" dictates the return when you have no other realistic choice other than selling on the market. But when you have the choice, when simply keeping a quality, low-mileage, and affordable arm IS a realistic alternative to selling on the market, then YOU have the leverage, YOU hold the cards, and YOU make the market.

 

As you suggest, Santos should have been moved only if we felt we got a good deal (and some might argue only if we got a really good deal). Theory aside, perhaps this is exactly what the Sox, umm, brain trust think they got -- a really good deal. It's certainly possible that Molina could be a far greater prospect with much better big league potential than what most of the scouting gurus think (lord knows they are often very, very wrong about prospects). And it's certainly possible too that the Sox have legitimate reason to believe that Sergio isn't as high quality (going forward) as many of us think he is.

 

Beyond all of that, I continue to think that most of the uproar is far from trading Sergio (I love the idea of trading Sergio under the Sox present circumstances, just not the implementation/return), and it isn't even about what we think about the return (because not a single one of us really has a great idea about Molina's potential in the Bigs, other than what "experts" with varying credentials tell us). The real issue is that by NOT contacting the Red Sox, NOT contacting the Orioles, and likely NOT contacting many other teams as well, it appears that Kenny didn't exhaustively maximize value for his trading chip. A team with deep resources and a well-stocked farm can get away with that; we can't. Some will say -- "well, that's not how Kenny does his business ... he finds a target and does what it takes to get him." Maybe that's true. And maybe the old dog must learn that the old tricks haven't been working all that well and it's time to learn a new trick or two (not that due diligence and establishing a market is a "new" trick to most, but it certainly might be a new way of operating for our GM).

Edited December 11, 2011 by CyAcosta41

[3E8]

Balta and Cy, well said.

[DirtySox]

 

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman

#chisox had something working w/ bluejays for quentin but it appears to be cool now. seeking other suitors.

1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[ILMOU]

Balta and Cy, well said.

 

Don't completely disagree, but "targeting" specific prospects has served Kenny well. Jon Garland, John Danks and Gavin Floyd come to mind. All well-undervalued by the teams who traded them. Of course, there are exceptions too.

 

Personally, I'm glad we didn't entertain trades with BoSox or Yanks, who routinely get their prospects overhyped by the WWL and other media outlets.

[elrockinMT]

But there's still that one thing out there. With Santos...we did not have to move him. We have to move Danks, we have to move Quentin, we didn't have to move Santos if we didn't get a return big enough to say "that was a good deal".

 

 

It is very hard to see the logic in the trade of Santos. Maybe the Sox don't feel Sergio was the real deal? I was impressed with the kid and we had him locked up for quite awhile. As with all trades time will tell

Edited December 11, 2011 by elrockinMT

[Marty34]

The real issue is that by NOT contacting the Red Sox, NOT contacting the Orioles, and likely NOT contacting many other teams as well, it appears that Kenny didn't exhaustively maximize value for his trading chip. A team with deep resources and a well-stocked farm can get away with that; we can't. Some will say -- "well, that's not how Kenny does his business ... he finds a target and does what it takes to get him." Maybe that's true. And maybe the old dog must learn that the old tricks haven't been working all that well and it's time to learn a new trick or two (not that due diligence and establishing a market is a "new" trick to most, but it certainly might be a new way of operating for our GM).

 

Maybe Molina was their number 1 target all along and when the Jays agreed there was no reason to offer Santos around to drive up his price. With guys like Bailey and Marmol on the market, the Jays could have gone elsewhere if the Sox drove too hard of a bargain. I don't have a problem with the way Williams handled this.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Marty34

[ILMOU]

Maybe Molina was their number 1 target all along and when the Jays agreed there was no reason to offer Santos around to drive up his price. With guys like Bailey and Marmol on the market, the Jays could have gone elsewhere if the Sox drove too hard of a bargain. I don't have a problem with the way Williams handled this.

 

 

Nor do I. Hopefully, Nestor will be a much-needed win for KW and the Sox.

 

If he's of our 5 starters by 2013, and considered on of our top 3-4 in 2014 going forward, that would be a nice win.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Stan Bahnsen

[3E8]

Don't completely disagree, but "targeting" specific prospects has served Kenny well. Jon Garland, John Danks and Gavin Floyd come to mind. All well-undervalued by the teams who traded them. Of course, there are exceptions too.

 

Personally, I'm glad we didn't entertain trades with BoSox or Yanks, who routinely get their prospects overhyped by the WWL and other media outlets.

This time, the "targeted" prospect is not undervalued. Molina's stock is at an all-time high. He was unknown at this point one year ago. Which is precisely why to get just him, we have to part with Santos and his friendly contract.

 

The Sox would be better served taking advantage of our extreme strength in Don Cooper. Go for the pitching prospects who have fallen out of favor a bit that he thinks can be turned around. That way, we get something more valuable to us for less. Most of KW's best trades (not just the ones involving pitchers) have been the ones that took utilized Cooper. Coop taught Danks a cutter, Floyd a slider, changed Thornton's delivery, and resurrected Loiaza long enough to net us Contreras.

[fathom]

Some rumors out there that Sox might had been close to trading Quentin to the Blue Jays. Wouldn't shock me at all if it was for Drabek.

[Balta1701]

It is very hard to see the logic in the trade of Santos. Maybe the Sox don't feel Sergio was the real deal? I was impressed with the kid and we had him locked up for quite awhile. As with all trades time will tell

I can see the logic...a starter is always more valuable than a reliever, and if your guys really like this starter, that's a winning formula. I just think that because of where the guy was, you ought to get more for the major league player than this one guy.

[CyAcosta41]

Don't completely disagree, but "targeting" specific prospects has served Kenny well. Jon Garland, John Danks and Gavin Floyd come to mind. All well-undervalued by the teams who traded them. Of course, there are exceptions too.

 

 

I understand what you're saying here, but I do think part of the disagreement that some of us are having with each other might have something to do with how we are using the term "targeting." If our management team is on top of their industry in the way most of us would like to think they are on top of their industry, we should have multiple "targeted" players on the major and minor league rosters of each and every team in baseball.

 

Garland, Danks, Floyd, Quentin, DeAza, and many others must all have been targets to some extent, whether we approached their former teams for them specifically, or whether we asked for them when their former teams approached us for our players being almost immaterial. I think we can reasonably expect that we'd know the available talent throughout baseball -- wanting some players because they're undervalued, others because they're properly valued (in our opinion) but fill niches we want/need, and hopefully never want the overvalued ones. We should have scores and scores of possible targets throughout baseball.

 

What I and some others seem to have some problem with is that it sure SEEMS that Kenny truly fixates on certain "targets" as must-haves and because the industry in general knows he does this, he routinely overpays relative to what others might have paid. Not to mention that finding out how much a target might cost -- Molina, Floyd, or whoever -- isn't mutually exclusive with finding out what many others might pay for your trading chips (Santos, Brandon McCarthy or whoever). Many people keep repeating -- "Oh, if you press too hard or shop too much you might lose out on the deal." Yeah, you might. And if you don't press or shop at all, you might make the kind of deals that we keep seeing Kenny making (WE trade multiple prospects for one major leaguer; WE get one prospect for our major leaguer).

 

Sure, if your press or shop you might lose a deal. Too bad. That's the case in every industry. Baseball isn't any different. And if you're doing your homework and scouting diligently, there are many similar "prospects" (of a particular type or sort) scattered throughout baseball. It's rare when there is a one-of-a-kind prospect out there. And those aren't usually available to anyone.

 

If you truly LOVE Molina (and I really hope they did love him a lot more than most of the scouting reports love him), then I have no problem "targeting" him. But in my mind this can and should be done concurrently with finding out what might be offered for Santos throughout baseball (or at least those teams that we are willing to deal with). You don't think the Red Sox, Orioles, or teams x, y, or z have Molina equivalents in their system? Perhaps one of these teams might have traded their Molina plus something else for Santos? You only know that if you tried (and, in fairness, perhaps Kenny did).

 

I've personally discussed this issue to death. I'd trade a reliever like Santos over-and-over again for a fair return. I'd always be willing to take some risks trading a present quality reliever for the CHANCE of quality at the starter position. I simply think that it's possible we took on too much of a risk -- because perhaps we lost out on the opportunity cost of seeing what else might be out there, and perhaps because getting back just ONE potential M.L. starter, who has pitched less than 30 innings at AA or higher, is incredibly risky for a team with very little margin for error.

Edited December 11, 2011 by CyAcosta41

[Knackattack]

If the Sox are really committing to a rebuild, then it's way too early to say whether or not we are winners or losers. The way it is looking is like we are trusting Kenny to bring us back in the next 3 years. If Molina even ends up pitching 200 innings for us a few times it is probably a win, SP are more valuable than closers, obviously, and we have more options than Sergio. Value wise I actually do think Kenny did well, but until we see results there is no true answer.

[Quin]

Some rumors out there that Sox might had been close to trading Quentin to the Blue Jays. Wouldn't shock me at all if it was for Drabek.

 

I'd buy Kenny Williams a pimp cane.

[Marty34]

If Beane doesn't call the Sox about Gonzalez is he not shopping him as he should? So the story is the Red Sox and Orioles would have ponied up for Santos. I believe the Jays were the best match for Santos.

[Balta1701]

If Beane doesn't call the Sox about Gonzalez is he not shopping him as he should? So the story is the Red Sox and Orioles would have ponied up for Santos. I believe the Jays were the best match for Santos.

No, because the White Sox aren't in need of a soon to be expensive starter. However, if the White Sox were in need of that player, it would make sense to call them.

[Marty34]

No, because the White Sox aren't in need of a soon to be expensive starter. However, if the White Sox were in need of that player, it would make sense to call them.

 

I think the Sox would be interested in a pre-arb Gonzalez.

[Balta1701]

I think the Sox would be interested in a pre-arb Gonzalez.

Crazy. The White Sox have no talent to give up in exchange for a guy who is arb-eligible for the first time this year.

[DirtySox]

Crazy. The White Sox have no talent to give up in exchange for a guy who is arb-eligible for the first time this year.

 

No kidding. It makes no sense to trade for Gio if they club is indeed rebuilding. Even if they do have enough to trade, the package starts with Sale, Dayan, and Reed. These players don't match up with Oakland's time table either, as they want prospects that will be just about ready for when they get their new stadium.

[Marty34]

Crazy. The White Sox have no talent to give up in exchange for a guy who is arb-eligible for the first time this year.

 

Doesn't differ from Williams not calling Boston or Baltimore.

[DirtySox]

 

Richard Griffin

Further to @Jon_Heyman re Quentin & Jays. AA & KennyW discussed fits for Quentin, Danks, Beckham & Santos. Settled on Santos ... for now.

1 hour ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply

[Texsox]

Evaluating this early in the off season is like watching the first 15 minutes of Iron Chef. You see a lot of ingredients, but until it gets closer to the final product, there is too much unknown for me to declare a winner.