Some early projection of Sox line-up/stats

[caulfield12]

http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?Team=CWS

 

God, you'd love to have those numbers out of Peavy, Humber and Sale.

 

Too bad it's ONLY about a 5-10% probability.

 

 

 

DeAza 785 OPS

Ramirez 734 OPS

Konerko 873 OPS

CQ 835 OPS

AJ 726 OPS

 

Morel 739 OPS

 

Dunn 718 OPS

Rios 689 OPS

Beckham 689 OPS

 

 

They also project the Ozzie Martinez kid we got for Guillen as the utility guy over Escobar.

Edited December 13, 2011 by caulfield12

[ScottyDo]

http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?Team=CWS

 

God, you'd love to have those numbers out of Peavy, Humber and Sale.

 

Too bad it's ONLY about a 5-10% probability.

 

 

 

DeAza 785 OPS

Ramirez 734 OPS

Konerko 873 OPS

CQ 835 OPS

AJ 726 OPS

 

Morel 739 OPS

 

Dunn 718 OPS

Rios 689 OPS

Beckham 689 OPS

That is a damn fine rotation if those numbers are anywhere close to true.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Wow, love those numbers for Sale.

[ScottyDo]

Not many IP in the rotation, though. Good thing these are just guesses.

[MiddleCoastBias]

146 home runs out of the starting nine seems pretty low, doesn't it? I feel like the estimates for Morel, Beckham, and De Aza are a bit conservative. Also note they have Lillibridge with more HR/AB than anyone else on the team again.

[Balta1701]

146 home runs out of the starting nine seems pretty low, doesn't it? I feel like the estimates for Morel, Beckham, and De Aza are a bit conservative. Also note they have Lillibridge with more HR/AB than anyone else on the team again.

They only hit 154 last year.

[Real]

Konerko projected to have a down year according to those guys

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Konerko projected to have a down year according to those guys

 

As one would expect. At his age, every season from here on out will have a projected decline. You generally don't assume old players will improve.

[caulfield12]

146 home runs out of the starting nine seems pretty low, doesn't it? I feel like the estimates for Morel, Beckham, and De Aza are a bit conservative. Also note they have Lillibridge with more HR/AB than anyone else on the team again.

 

 

Morel seems to be ONE example where they looked at his last 4-6 weeks of playing time, rather than the entire body of work...and perhaps a more nuanced view that he's consistently improved and made adjustments as well in nearly every minor league season. His projection is closer to what we expected out of Joe Crede every year than what we could have dreamed for Brent in July or early August. Those were big steps/strides he finally made to give us all some badly-needed confidence in him going into the offseason.

 

Because he was fighting just to get up to a 600 OPS for the majority of the season, because of his lack of extra base hits and walks.

 

You can see DeAza putting up another 850-900 or completely playing himself off the team when/if he becomes the official starter for Pierre (based on a CQ deal finally happening, maybe after his 2012 salary number is clarified).

Edited December 13, 2011 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

You can see DeAza putting up another 850-900 or completely playing himself off the team when/if he becomes the official starter for Pierre (based on a CQ deal finally happening, maybe after his 2012 salary number is clarified).

De Aza will not put up an .850-.900 OPS again in a full season. He could do so in a part season but that's an anomaly. He will not rake for a full year like he did in his brief stint. That doesn't mean his numbers couldn't be very good for a CF/LF who plays good defense and hits leadoff...just that you're going to be very disappointed if you try to pencil in a >.800 OPS for him.

[103 mph screwball]

Morel seems to be ONE example where they looked at his last 4-6 weeks of playing time, rather than the entire body of work...and perhaps a more nuanced view that he's consistently improved and made adjustments as well in nearly every minor league season. His projection is closer to what we expected out of Joe Crede every year than what we could have dreamed for Brent in July or early August. Those were big steps/strides he finally made to give us all some badly-needed confidence in him going into the offseason.

 

Because he was fighting just to get up to a 600 OPS for the majority of the season, because of his lack of extra base hits and walks.

 

You can see DeAza putting up another 850-900 or completely playing himself off the team when/if he becomes the official starter for Pierre (based on a CQ deal finally happening, maybe after his 2012 salary number is clarified).

 

According to DJ when he was on the Score a couple of days ago, Morel was just treading water trying to stay on the team for the first several months. He was trying to make contact. The last part of the year, he turned it loose. I hope he turns it loose all year next year. He has had adjustments at every level so far. He could be a .280+ hitter with a nice glove.

[knightni]

As one would expect. At his age, every season from here on out will have a projected decline. You generally don't assume old players will improve.

Hey, it worked for Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmeiro...

[VictoryMC98]

De Aza will not put up an .850-.900 OPS again in a full season. He could do so in a part season but that's an anomaly. He will not rake for a full year like he did in his brief stint. That doesn't mean his numbers couldn't be very good for a CF/LF who plays good defense and hits leadoff...just that you're going to be very disappointed if you try to pencil in a >.800 OPS for him.

 

Wow, I thought for sure you would have loved that #.

 

I think DeAza is extremely high, and Dunn Extremely Low.

[Andrew]

http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?Team=CWS

 

God, you'd love to have those numbers out of Peavy, Humber and Sale.

 

Too bad it's ONLY about a 5-10% probability.

 

 

 

DeAza 785 OPS

Ramirez 734 OPS

Konerko 873 OPS

CQ 835 OPS

AJ 726 OPS

 

]Morel 739 OPS

 

Dunn 718 OPS

Rios 689 OPS

Beckham 689 OPS[/b]

 

 

They also project the Ozzie Martinez kid we got for Guillen as the utility guy over Escobar.

 

LOL....

 

Hey I know - Let's just trade Dunn for Soriano. We can DH Soriano, they can put Dunn at 1B when they don't get Fielder. Each team still eats s*** for signing dumb ass contracts, everyone wins (unless you expected quality baseball out of either team, in which case...you are dreaming).

Edited December 14, 2011 by Andrew

[caulfield12]

LOL....

 

Hey I know - Let's just trade Dunn for Soriano. We can DH Soriano, they can put Dunn at 1B when they don't get Fielder. Each team still eats s*** for signing dumb ass contracts, everyone wins (unless you expected quality baseball out of either team, in which case...you are dreaming).

 

There's certainly a logical argument for DeAza/Rios/Viciedo/Soriano/Konerko, especially from a selling tickets/marketing standpoint. But I'd still prefer Viciedo at 1B, DeAza in LF, Quentin in RF and Soriano as DH to what we're actually going to do.

 

That would mean trading Konerko, but what are the odds we're going to be competitive the next 2 seasons?

 

It's just a guess, but I think Quentin's OPS the next two seasons will probably equal Konerko's and at 1/2 the price. Of course, you never know if the guy can stay healthy, he only played 119 games last year.

 

 

[Andrew]

There's certainly a logical argument for DeAza/Rios/Viciedo/Soriano/Konerko, especially from a selling tickets/marketing standpoint. But I'd still prefer Viciedo at 1B, DeAza in LF, Quentin in RF and Soriano as DH to what we're actually going to do.

 

That would mean trading Konerko, but what are the odds we're going to be competitive the next 2 seasons?

 

It's just a guess, but I think Quentin's OPS the next two seasons will probably equal Konerko's and at 1/2 the price. Of course, you never know if the guy can stay healthy, he only played 119 games last year.

 

Oh this....

 

Ok, let's play this out.

 

Quentin was really really relevant (really) to make that kind of statement...one year, 08. Where he hit where in the order? And before you answer, where was Paulie?

 

Now, let's look at the 2012 linuep in the context of the assertion that Quentin can equal the OPS at 1/2 the price.

 

Are you sure you want to pitch that? You're putting Quentin in Paulie's place without ...well Quentin (at his best) in front.

 

I'm not a Paulie meat-head type fan, but...duder produces with what he's got (that includes more sucky/absent Quentins than good ones).

 

I'll hang up and wait for your answer.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Andrew

[caulfield12]

Oh this....

 

Ok, let's play this out.

 

Quentin was really really relevant (really) to make that kind of statement...one year, 08. Where he hit where in the order? And before you answer, where was Paulie?

 

Now, let's look at the 2012 linuep in the context of the assertion that Quentin can equal the OPS at 1/2 the price.

 

Are you sure you want to pitch that? You're putting Quentin in Paulie's place without ...well Quentin (at his best) in front.

 

I'm not a Paulie meat-head type fan, but...duder produces with what he's got (that includes more sucky/absent Quentins than good ones).

 

I'll hang up and wait for your answer.

 

 

It's all a hypothetical, and we're extrapolating performance lines for a player (almost everyone believes) who's never used steroids yet has clearly improved as a hitter in his mid 30's.

 

What precedent is there in baseball history for that? Can you count on it for another 2 years?

 

It's an emotional argument depending on your feelings for Konerko and how important he still is to the fanbase and JR.

 

To me, I'd rather have Mark Buehrle for $56 million and 4 years than John Danks for the same contract terms (if I had to choose one over the other).

 

But if I could pick two Carlos Quentins to fill out the roster or one Paul Konerko (1B), and I was only working with a $105-110 million budget, I'd gamble that the two Quentins would combined give more bang for the buck than one Konerko in his mid 30's, not to mention getting something decent back for Paulie with 7 teams reportedly still looking for a high-quality 1B.

 

To me, Quentin in LF, Quentin 2 in RF, Viciedo at 1B, DeAza in CF, gives the team the best chance to win.

If Dunn fails, you can use DeAza/Quentin 2 as your DH.

 

Of course, there's no such thing as Quentin 2, just the idea of a similar player making between $6-7 million in 2012.

 

 

[Milkman delivers]

There's certainly a logical argument for DeAza/Rios/Viciedo/Soriano/Konerko, especially from a selling tickets/marketing standpoint. But I'd still prefer Viciedo at 1B, DeAza in LF, Quentin in RF and Soriano as DH to what we're actually going to do.

 

That would mean trading Konerko, but what are the odds we're going to be competitive the next 2 seasons?

 

It's just a guess, but I think Quentin's OPS the next two seasons will probably equal Konerko's and at 1/2 the price. Of course, you never know if the guy can stay healthy, he only played 119 games last year.

 

Quite the contrary. You can be sure that he WON'T be healthy.

[Balta1701]

Wow, I thought for sure you would have loved that #.

 

I think DeAza is extremely high, and Dunn Extremely Low.

I think the .785 projection for De Aza is on the high side, but is something he could reasonably do.

[caulfield12]

Quite the contrary. You can be sure that he WON'T be healthy.

 

 

Now you just jinxed Konerko's health, lol.

[VictoryMC98]

I think the .785 projection for De Aza is on the high side, but is something he could reasonably do.

 

If he gets to .650-.700 range I will be shocked.

[Balta1701]

If he gets to .650-.700 range I will be shocked.

You're right, I'd be shocked he's that low.

[southsider2k5]

Konerko projected to have a down year according to those guys

 

One of these years they will be right with that prediction.

[VictoryMC98]

You're right, I'd be shocked he's that low.

 

Did you forget the green?

[Balta1701]

Did you forget the green?

Not at all. I think he's a .750-.800 OPS outfielder and a giant upgrade from Juan Pierre.