Dylan Axelrod as a POSSIBLE Hidden Gem?

[CyAcosta41]

Does anyone else out there have any hope whatsoever that we might have a "hidden gem" in Dylan Axelrod?

 

There is usually a bit more optimism when discussing a pitcher like Axelrod who throws with the south paw, but from time-to-time you can find a successful major league righty whose pitching-IQ, command, movement, and competitiveness combine to make him a heck of a lot better pitcher than his "pure stuff" would indicate. Obviously, the prototype of this style of righty is Greg Maddux (who actually did throw very hard when he first started and became THAT Greg Maddux only after he stopped trying or was unable to throw the ball past hitters). But Dylan doesn't have to be a once in a generation pitcher like Maddux, I'd gladly take Brad Radke, Rick Reuschel, or even Paul Byrd -- righties who put together some pretty darned good years without overwhelming stuff.

 

I was more impressed than I expected with Dylan. His stuff (velocity, movement, breaking pitches) was much better than I expected it would be -- much better than someone like Carlos Torres (more like a John Danks than a Mark Buehrle). He's put up very good numbers with good peripherals in the minors and didn't look outclassed in the least in the Bigs. Obviously, the litmus test is whether barely adequate right handed stuff can consistently get big league hitters to make outs even with his other intangibles, but I don't totally discount the chance with this guy.

 

One reason I ask is that my far-removed Sox source, a friend of one of the many inner circle owners (who is more interested in the baseball than the business) mentioned that there are those in Sox baseball circles who think Dylan might have a fighting chance of big league success. Apparently the kid attached himself to Buehrle's hip and this, plus his results, impressed a few.

 

So, anyone with any hope or optimism about Dylan Axelrod? Of course, cutting the other way is the plight of Terry Doyle -- very much this same style of pitcher and yet even though we have a pitching starved system, we couldn't see fit to keep the dude after pretty darned good minor league success and a great deal of success in this year's AFL (a notorious HITTER'S LEAGUE), but the Twinkies liked him enough to snap him up as the 2nd selection in the Rule 5 draft. The Twins certainly have a history of valuing pitchability as much as stuff, while recent Sox history is certainly one of putting great emphasis on stuff and less on pitchers who somehow, some way, just get it done. So, it's a little hard for me to believe there is internal Sox optimism about Axelrod if we just let Doyle go like that (of course, maybe they think his "stuff" is just enough better than Doyle's to take the shot).

 

If we trade Danks and Floyd for various electric young arms, after losing Buehrle as well, I would love to see if Dylan's whole package "plays" at the Big League level. Why the heck not?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I feel he could be a formidable #5 guy with #4 potential, which is a nice surprise when you figure he was pretty much a nobody in this system.

[CyAcosta41]

I feel he could be a formidable #5 guy with #4 potential, which is a nice surprise when you figure he was pretty much a nobody in this system.

 

Agreed. And I'm a bit more optimistic than that -- right now, given his intangibles, I'd feel pretty darned good about him as a #5, but I'd put his ceiling as a solid, inning-eating #3.

 

Wouldn't it be something if he could turn out to be a find? If Dylan could give you quality innings as a starter, dollar cost averaging means I'm a whole lot less bothered by Jake's last giant contract year.

[RockRaines]

I've been mentioning it as well, I personally think his stuff translates to the majors. His motion was alot like Daniel Hudson's

[CyAcosta41]

I've been mentioning it as well, I personally think his stuff translates to the majors. His motion was alot like Daniel Hudson's

 

I've made this same point to many Sox fan friends. Deception, motion, and just generally a hitter's inability to be comfortable and pick-up the ball doesn't always translate in scouting reports. You see it in the success a guy actually has while pitching. Dylan strikes out a whole lot more guys, and gives up a whole lot fewer homers, than you would think he would. Some of this is smarts and movement, but some of it must be deception/motion too. Given where we're at, I think there is no choice other than to trot the guy out there and see how he plays to major league sticks. We might be in for a surprise.

 

(By the way, given your avatar, you are just the man who should be talking about "motion.")

[Jake]

I wouldn't talk about Carlos Torres like he had no stuff. When he pitched with the big league club, he showed that he had decent juice on his fastball and rather impressive movement. I remember a good, hard slider and an alright change, as well. He just couldn't throw strikes - I'd imagine he could have been a good middle-back starter himself had he not had jitters/bad luck/whatever it was that made him lose his normally impeccable control when he pitched for the Sox.

[CyAcosta41]

I wouldn't talk about Carlos Torres like he had no stuff. When he pitched with the big league club, he showed that he had decent juice on his fastball and rather impressive movement. I remember a good, hard slider and an alright change, as well. He just couldn't throw strikes - I'd imagine he could have been a good middle-back starter himself had he not had jitters/bad luck/whatever it was that made him lose his normally impeccable control when he pitched for the Sox.

 

Hey Jake, I didn't mean to imply that he had no stuff, rather that Dylan's stuff seems a tick better -- more oomph on the heater, some later movement, more bite on the breaking-stuff.

 

Baseball is a crazy game because if Carlos Torres had been a left-hander, he would have been so much more of a prospect and would have been thought to have much better stuff. Lefties have such a great competitive advantage.

 

Personally, I think what happened to Carlos is what happens to many righties with borderline stuff -- they don't have the confidence that their stuff will get big league hitters out, so they nibble. Not only does this mean that they're walking guys and always behind in counts (and big league hitters will then hammer them), it all snowballs because the command that allowed them to be successful at lower levels now eludes them and they're totally different pitchers than they were before. We saw this to a lesser extent with Axelrod too -- he walked 9 guys in 18 IP here in the Bigs while his minor league control had been incredible. It's something that he's going to have to be very careful about for him to have prolonged success.

[NorthSideSox72]

I feel better about him being in the rotation than I would Stewart, that's for sure. And if Humber fades back, Axel might pass him too. I think he'll end up being a nice starter. Nothing spectacular, but at least put up consistently decent numbers and eat some innings.

 

[RockRaines]

Hey Jake, I didn't mean to imply that he had no stuff, rather that Dylan's stuff seems a tick better -- more oomph on the heater, some later movement, more bite on the breaking-stuff.

The guy may be a bust but I really saw some similarities between his style and others, most notably Hudson. He throws across his body with a loose arm action which adds some sink and also a ton of late bite to his pitches. His fastballs move away from lefties and in towards righties. I still think this motion lends itself to shoulder injury in the future, it appears to at least make the pitcher harder to pick up for hitters.

[Marty34]

I think best case scenario for Axelrod is that he becomes this generation's Jon Snyder.

[CyAcosta41]

I think best case scenario for Axelrod is that he becomes this generation's Jon Snyder.

 

Any reason for your thinking, other than evidently thinking Axelrod stinks and comparing to a pitcher from the past that also stunk?

 

I remember late 90's John Snyder very well and I don't see any comparison at all. Snyder was a big, durable, pitch-to-contact sort who had just okay success in the minors and was brutal in the Bigs. Over 1100+ minor league innings, the guy had a cumulative 4.80 ERA, 10.3 (H/9) (in the MINORS!), almost a HR per 9 at 0.9, 6.3 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9. Once he made the Bigs he had a cumulative ERA over 6, hits, homers, and walks up, and strikeouts way down.

 

By comparison, Dylan was Bob Feller in the minors -- swing and miss stuff, at just under 500 innings logging a 2.80 cumulative ERA, 8.2 (H/9), 0.3 HR/9, 8.0 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9. In an obviously very limited sampling, his big league ERA is 2.89, hits and HRs per/9 fairly similar to the minors, BB/9 way up at 4.3 (obviously a concern), but K/9 higher than the minors at 9.2.

 

In no way am I suggesting that Dylan Axelrod is any sort of sure thing or is likely to be a stud, but the guy has consistently put up numbers and has absolutely nothing in common with John Snyder other than they are young right-handed pitchers who might be thrown into a big league rotation in an environment where many doubt their bona fides!

[Jordan4life_2007]

I'm all for giving Axelrod a chance if Danks, Floyd or both are traded. It would give us a better shot at the #1 pick in the '13 draft.

[Cali]

I'm all for giving Axelrod a chance if Danks, Floyd or both are traded. It would give us a better shot at the #1 pick in the '13 draft.

 

Are there any projections on who are the best players in the 2013 Draft? Haha

[caulfield12]

Cy, not sure how much to agree with you (especially recently) about the Twins having so much success with their pitching staff.

 

That was one of the big factors in Bill Smith losing his job.

 

Remember reading when we traded Guerrier for Marte, how McClendon and the Pirates' GM were forecasting Matt as the "next Greg Maddux" as well? How many times has it even come close to happening, in reality? Seems to be the most overplayed comparison among "non-stuff" pitchers that ever gets made, or the Buehrle/Glavine comps for soft-tossing lefties.

 

The Twins have had mixed results, at best, with Blackburn/Slowey/Baker over the last couple of seasons. They made a pretty big mistake in dealing Garza and Bartlett for D. Young (it worked well for one season, 2010...but Gardenhire surely would take that trade back in a heartbeat). They also let Kyle Lohse go before he realized his potential under Dave Duncan.

 

No team is infallible, but other than Liriano breaking out and Johan Santana, the Twins haven't developed the type of pitching that can go out and win big games in the post-season. At that point, pure/ace stuff will give most teams the edge, the Josh Becketts, Roy Halladays and CC Sabathias (yes, he's been roughed up) of the world.

 

It was also clearly a factor in the Rangers' downfall. They have a TON of depth, when arguably their best future starter in Ogando didn't even have a place in the top 4. But none of those guys were close to aces, either. Good enough to get through the regular season and survive the post-season, but, in the end, they came up short. Granted, Nelson Cruz makes that play in RF and maybe this point isn't as valid as a criticism. And that pitching (combined with a very nice offense and strong pen) got them back twice in a row. (And the Giants/Angels showed pitching alone wasn't enough to get anywhere).

 

In the end, will remain cautiously optimistic. Like the Chad Bradfords, Mark Buehrle's and Josh Fogg's of past seasons, he'll have to prove himself every time out...that might be one of the biggest benefits of a "no pressure" year of out the gate, where younger players/pitchers can be given more time to find themselves at the major league level.

 

 

[CyAcosta41]

Cy, not sure how much to agree with you (especially recently) about the Twins having so much success with their pitching staff.

 

That was one of the big factors in Bill Smith losing his job.

 

. . .

 

In the end, will remain cautiously optimistic. Like the Chad Bradfords, Mark Buehrle's and Josh Fogg's of past seasons, he'll have to prove himself every time out...that might be one of the biggest benefits of a "no pressure" year of out the gate, where younger players/pitchers can be given more time to find themselves at the major league level.

 

 

Thanks for the well thought-out reply. I wasn't at all saying that the Twins have so much success with their pitching staff, but was merely using them (since we all know them so well) as the foil for the Sox sometimes over-emphasis on "stuff."

 

It always fascinates me how lefty after lefty can be prospects throwing 88-92, but righties in that range are always HUGE suspects. To be drafted today, it seems right-handed pitchers need to be 6'5", 240lbs, with tree-trunk legs, throwing 93-96 mph.

 

Like a few other posters have intimated, I also think that Axelrod actually has much better "stuff" than most people think he has -- velocity, movement, and bite. Plus, he's got some of that deception and short-arming that makes him difficult to "see." I don't think he's nearly the "pure guile" pitcher that some see him as; I think his minor and major league swing-and-miss numbers provide decent evidence of that.

 

Yeah, his stature is going to make people doubt him -- kind of the white wide receiver syndrome that every NFL white wide receiver battles (no matter his published 40 time). But this guy has performed VERY well at the minor league level and in a limited sampling has shown the ability to get big league hitters out too. Sure he'll have to be on his game, but the same can be said for pretty much all the #4 and #5 style pitchers out there. Personally, I think those who instantly classify him as garbage aren't looking at the advanced numbers and using their eyes. We've seen awful #4's and #5's on the South Side and at least in my opinion Dylan Axelrod has a decent chance of being a LOT better pitcher than many of them.

[elrockinMT]

It is fun to speculate and all, but really all we can do is hope that trades like the ones being made for E Jax and now Santos do work out for the Chisox in the long run or short run if we are real lucky.

[caulfield12]

Thanks for the well thought-out reply. I wasn't at all saying that the Twins have so much success with their pitching staff, but was merely using them (since we all know them so well) as the foil for the Sox sometimes over-emphasis on "stuff."

 

It always fascinates me how lefty after lefty can be prospects throwing 88-92, but righties in that range are always HUGE suspects. To be drafted today, it seems right-handed pitchers need to be 6'5", 240lbs, with tree-trunk legs, throwing 93-96 mph.

 

Like a few other posters have intimated, I also think that Axelrod actually has much better "stuff" than most people think he has -- velocity, movement, and bite. Plus, he's got some of that deception and short-arming that makes him difficult to "see." I don't think he's nearly the "pure guile" pitcher that some see him as; I think his minor and major league swing-and-miss numbers provide decent evidence of that.

 

Yeah, his stature is going to make people doubt him -- kind of the white wide receiver syndrome that every NFL white wide receiver battles (no matter his published 40 time). But this guy has performed VERY well at the minor league level and in a limited sampling has shown the ability to get big league hitters out too. Sure he'll have to be on his game, but the same can be said for pretty much all the #4 and #5 style pitchers out there. Personally, I think those who instantly classify him as garbage aren't looking at the advanced numbers and using their eyes. We've seen awful #4's and #5's on the South Side and at least in my opinion Dylan Axelrod has a decent chance of being a LOT better pitcher than many of them.

 

Definitely agree about the lefty/right thing.

 

Hector Santiago wouldn't even be mentioned in our plans for 2012 were he not a lefty.

 

And it seems every team has those lefties like Wil Ohman who hang on into their late 30's/early 40's as loogy's...the Arthur Rhodes/Darren Olivers of the baseball world who will continue to sign decent-sized contracts as FA's.

 

And it's also the reason we SHOULD be able to get a decent-sized haul for Danks, despite his off year in 2010. On a team with average or above-average run support, he's the type of guy you definitely count on for 14-17 wins (if not more) per season.

 

But still don't think that ability is worth $100 million+ to the White Sox at this juncture.

Edited December 14, 2011 by caulfield12

[CyAcosta41]

Definitely agree about the lefty/right thing.

 

Hector Santiago wouldn't even be mentioned in our plans for 2012 were he not a lefty.

 

And it seems every team has those lefties like Wil Ohman who hang on into their late 30's/early 40's as loogy's...the Arthur Rhodes/Darren Olivers of the baseball world who will continue to sign decent-sized contracts as FA's.

 

I can't remember the details of the particular network broadcast analyst or the barely adequate Methuselah LOOGY in question (it might have been Ray Searage), but when the LOOGY took the mound the analyst said:

 

"This is LOOGY's 18th (or 20th or whatever) year in the Major Leagues and his longevity is a testament to his continuing ability to be left-handed."

 

I couldn't stop laughing at that one. Yet, so much truth in that. If you can't raise your kid to be a left-handed hitting catcher (most certain route to the bigs), then at least make certain he/she is a left-handed pitcher!

 

[caulfield12]

I can't remember the details of the particular network broadcast analyst or the barely adequate Methuselah LOOGY in question (it might have been Ray Searage), but when the LOOGY took the mound the analyst said:

 

"This is LOOGY's 18th (or 20th or whatever) year in the Major Leagues and his longevity is a testament to his continuing ability to be left-handed."

 

I couldn't stop laughing at that one. Yet, so much truth in that. If you can't raise your kid to be a left-handed hitting catcher (most certain route to the bigs), then at least make certain he/she is a left-handed pitcher!

 

Yeah, my best friend and I had a nickname for him back in the day, "Oh no, they're bringing in Ray Sewage!!"

 

They've given up on the game for sure.