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Yu Darvish


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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 08:28 AM)
When have the Rays invested a hefty sum towards any pitcher? Or player, for that matter? They have moore and longoria locked up to long extremely team friendly deals, and they have dealt away any other player for prospects and ML ready players(Garza, Bartlett) or just let the player walk when it is time to get paid(Pena, Crawford). Totally different organizational philosophy than the Phillies who are spending money like it is going out of style and trading whoever has value for stars.

 

And you say that Darvish is "clearly" a better prospect than Daisuke 6 years ago. When did you come to that determination? Daisuke was supposed to be the real deal, his "gyroball" was supposed to defy gravity and be unhittable. It didnt, it wasnt, and he turned out to be a flop when you consider the posting fee and his contract. But that doesnt change the fact that Daisuke had the exact same hype back then that Darvish has now.

 

Darvish could very well come in and dominate, but he also could be outclassed by a league that is far superior than the league Darvish has been in.

 

Dice-K had way bigger hype than Darvish has.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 20, 2011 -> 11:41 PM)
That's why I said for now. The Rangers, along with the Rays and Phillies, are the premier organizations in baseball. So if they feel confident in investing such a hefty sum towards a pitcher, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Confident or desperate? I think it's much more likely they're pressing trying to replace CJ Wilson than they simply think Darvish is a good investment.

 

I have no idea how Darvish will work out, but I think he should be viewed differently than other Japanese pitchers due to his mixed ethnic background and larger frame. Having said that, he's still victim of the Japanese posting system and I don't see how there's any way he meets or exceeds the value of his contract once you factor in that $50 million posting fee.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 20, 2011 -> 11:41 PM)
That's why I said for now. The Rangers, along with the Rays and Phillies, are the premier organizations in baseball. So if they feel confident in investing such a hefty sum towards a pitcher, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Confident or desperate? I think it's much more likely they're pressing trying to replace CJ Wilson than they simply think Darvish is a good investment.

 

I have no idea how Darvish will work out, but I think he should be viewed differently than other Japanese pitchers due to his mixed ethnic background and larger frame. Having said that, he's still victim of the Japanese posting system and I don't see how there's any way he meets or exceeds the value of his contract once you factor in that $50 million posting fee.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 11:50 AM)
jonmorosi Jon Morosi

Source: #Rangers, Yu Darvish now "close" to reaching deal.

 

 

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 12:20 PM)
MLBInsideNews Scott Swaim

Source : Rangers unlikely to sign Darvish

 

LOL, gotta love Twitter.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 12:24 PM)
LOL, gotta love Twitter.

 

Yeah it looks like the inside news guy is off base. All of the national writers still seem to think it will get done.

 

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

Rangers and darvish/tellem working hard (via @DKnobler). All anticipation is it gets done. team wants 6 year deal

 

DKnobler DKnobler

Rangers are indeed close on deal with Darvish, as @jonmorosi wrote. Not done yet, but both sides intent on getting deal by deadline today

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http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbssports.com...297882/34453185

 

By Matt Snyder

 

Starting pitcher Yu Darvish will sign with the Texas Rangers before the 5:00 p.m. ET deadline, sources have told CBSSports.com insider Jon Heyman. The deal is likely to be for six years, Heyman has also learned. The Rangers paid a reported $51.7 million simply for the right to negotiate with Darvish.

 

More Darvish coverage

 

Would You Rather Have: Darvish or Wilson?

Snyder: Darvish better than past imports

 

Darvish, a 25-year-old right-hander, has been the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters for five years. In those five seasons, Darvish is 76-28 with a sparkling 1.72 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He's struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings and walked just 1.9 per nine. He's also thrown 50 complete games and 15 shutouts. In 2011, Darvish went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 276 strikeouts in 232 innings with 10 complete games and six shutouts.

 

If Darvish does indeed sign with the Rangers, the entire posting fee will be sent from the Rangers to the Fighters as compensation.

 

Darvish will join Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz and probably Matt Harrison in the Rangers' rotation while Scott Feldman and Alexi Ogando are likely ticketed for the bullpen -- but still could emerge as starting options if need be -- in front of Mike Adams and Joe Nathan.

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 05:30 PM)
Should look really good when he's coming out of the bullpen in 3 years.

I'm not going to go that far...but I will say, it's nearly impossible for him to pitch up to that value. That's a $19 million a year average over 6 years. He'd literally have to be one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the AL every season of the deal to out-earn that money.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 05:36 PM)
I'm not going to go that far...but I will say, it's nearly impossible for him to pitch up to that value. That's a $19 million a year average over 6 years. He'd literally have to be one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the AL every season of the deal to out-earn that money.

No he wouldn't. To earn $19M per year, he'd have to be worth slightly more than four wins per season, which Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS system predicts he will be. If you took the average value of the top AL starting pitchers in recent years, you'd get something over six wins. Looks like a fair deal for both sides.

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QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 18, 2012 -> 05:51 PM)
No he wouldn't. To earn $19M per year, he'd have to be worth slightly more than four wins per season, which Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS system predicts he will be. If you took the average value of the top AL starting pitchers in recent years, you'd get something over six wins. Looks like a fair deal for both sides.

 

This is where I think the financial projections are unrealistic. Adding in the posting fee, he's gonna be about the 4th highest paid pitcher in the whole league. He needs to pitch that well to make it worth it. He needs to be CC/Halladay/Cliff Lee good.

 

If the other pitchers at your salary are worth 6 or 7 wins a year (other than Johan), you need to be that good too.

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