GreatScott82 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 08:54 AM) Again though, if John Danks just put up those numbers, he's still doing so at the time as a 2 month rental. His performance would be solid and worth trading for, but the free agency overhang would be there. Basically, that winds you up hoping that someone is more desperate for a starter at the deadline than they are now. Yeah, thats the point im trying to make. Teams are always desperate for pitching at the deadline. Right now, we would be selling low. Keeping Danks for the first half would not hurt us at all. If his value is the same in July than it is now, than so be it. At least we got 95-100 innings out of the guy and we still would acquire mid level prospects. If he has a tremendous first half, than teams would be bidding against eachother for his services and that can perhaps bring back a top prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 10:04 AM) Yeah, thats the point im trying to make. Teams are always desperate for pitching at the deadline. Right now, we would be selling low. Keeping Danks for the first half would not hurt us at all. If his value is the same in July than it is now, than so be it. At least we got 95-100 innings out of the guy and we still would acquire mid level prospects. If he has a tremendous first half, than teams would be bidding against eachother for his services and that can perhaps bring back a top prospect. The problem is that the Sox absorb all the downside risk. Let's say Danks has anything but an extraordinary first half. He puts up his 2009 numbers, which are good but not Cy Young worthy, or he repeats his 2011 season where he struggles for a few weeks/gets hurt. At that point, the Sox are on the hook for what, $5 million out of his deal for holding onto him, and then the Sox are looking at a Zach Stewart quality return for him if we're lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The risk is that we might actually be able to compete....with the team, as is. We can survive Santos being gone, but probably not losing Sale/Thornton in the pen and one of our starters. We can also survive the loss of Quentin, probably....if at least 2 of Rios/Dunn/Beckham have All-Star caliber seasons and Viciedo hits as expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatScott82 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 09:09 AM) The problem is that the Sox absorb all the downside risk. Let's say Danks has anything but an extraordinary first half. He puts up his 2009 numbers, which are good but not Cy Young worthy, or he repeats his 2011 season where he struggles for a few weeks/gets hurt. At that point, the Sox are on the hook for what, $5 million out of his deal for holding onto him, and then the Sox are looking at a Zach Stewart quality return for him if we're lucky. It definitley is a risk. I guess since it is his contract year, I'm assuming he would have one if his better first halves. Its something KW needs to seriously look into. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatScott82 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 09:13 AM) The risk is that we might actually be able to compete....with the team, as is. We can survive Santos being gone, but probably not losing Sale/Thornton in the pen and one of our starters. We can also survive the loss of Quentin, probably....if at least 2 of Rios/Dunn/Beckham have All-Star caliber seasons and Viciedo hits as expected. Thats another factor as well. Our team may actually be pretty decent as is (even without TCQ). We all know, in the AL Central, if your decent your likely a contender for the division. I'm all for keeping Danks for the first half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 10:13 AM) The risk is that we might actually be able to compete....with the team, as is. We can survive Santos being gone, but probably not losing Sale/Thornton in the pen and one of our starters. We can also survive the loss of Quentin, probably....if at least 2 of Rios/Dunn/Beckham have All-Star caliber seasons and Viciedo hits as expected. Chris Sale is not in the Pen this year, that's already been stated repeatedly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 09:16 AM) Thats another factor as well. Our team may actually be pretty decent as is (even without TCQ). We all know, in the AL Central, if your decent your likely a contender for the division. I'm all for keeping Danks for the first half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The White Sox are going to enter 2012 having only dealt Santos and neglected to re-sign Buehrle. Kenny is already planning his "f*ck you speech" to the world after the Sox win the AL Central. The only problem is... that won't happen. The team will plod away a few games under .500, but just close enough that trader Kenny needs to ship off the only pieces of young value we have for some vet he coveted 4 years ago (Vlad Guerrero, I'm sure), and we'll be watching another wasted season. This is why someone else should have been put in charge to navigate this rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 10:16 AM) Thats another factor as well. Our team may actually be pretty decent as is (even without TCQ). We all know, in the AL Central, if your decent your likely a contender for the division. I'm all for keeping Danks for the first half! thats. thats. just silly. you'd rather try and "contend" with this piece of crap team than trade a valuable chip and get badly needed young talent. You'd rather have Danks value be as LOW as possible when we trade him. K. Got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The problem is, if we trade Danks now and don't get what back what we want....what's the point? We won't plug that $7-8 million back into payroll. It won't go into the draft or signing another player, in all likelihood. It won't even be a prospect who's better than Molina, arguably. I'm all for rebuilding, but we can't do it very effectively with the team as it is currently comprised. We have at least a 50/50 shot at competing with the roster "as is" under a new manager and philosophy. Why not just see how things play out and take it from there? We'll definitely have a losing season without Danks and/or Floyd out of the rotation. It's possible, with the way bullpens fluctate, that we can survive the loss of Santos/Sale (LH set-up)/Thornton/Quentin. Peavy's healthy, Floyd/Danks pitch like they're capable of, Sale looks dominant, we get a 4.25-4.75 ERA out of Humber and our fifth starter doesn't kill us, then we're in business...there are lots of what if's, sure, but Detroit is the only team that looks to be very solid, and they still have some pen issues. They're relying on a rookie 5th in Jacob Turner, although you could call that a wash with us going with Chris Sale in the rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How does Detroit have bullpen issues? Valverde/Benoit/Coke/Dotel is pretty damn good. If they have bullpen issues, then I don't want to know what you'd call our bullpen once Thornton gets traded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatScott82 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 (edited) QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 09:37 AM) thats. thats. just silly. you'd rather try and "contend" with this piece of crap team than trade a valuable chip and get badly needed young talent. You'd rather have Danks value be as LOW as possible when we trade him. K. Got it. How is this team a "piece of crap"? You just don't know how it will pan out yet. And how would Danks value be low in July if he posts great numbers? We need to assess our situation in July before we trade away pitching. Does our farm need help? Absolutely. But I think we can add more farm depth by dealing away Quentin, who as of right now, has as high of a trade value as he will ever have. I also believe we can deal away Thorton for 1 or 2 decent prospects. KW is not just going to tear this team a part to rebuild the farm. Edited December 21, 2011 by GreatScott82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 09:37 AM) thats. thats. just silly. you'd rather try and "contend" with this piece of crap team than trade a valuable chip and get badly needed young talent. You'd rather have Danks value be as LOW as possible when we trade him. K. Got it. If KW does not have the market for Danks now he should hold on to him. Teams that are trying to make a playoff push can get desparate in July. If KW gives a team a window to negotiate an extension during the season that increases Danks' value above what it is today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 01:09 PM) If KW does not have the market for Danks now he should hold on to him. Teams that are trying to make a playoff push can get desparate in July. If KW gives a team a window to negotiate an extension during the season that increases Danks' value above what it is today. Why should we assume that Danks will be the only pitcher on the market in July? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 10:36 AM) The White Sox are going to enter 2012 having only dealt Santos and neglected to re-sign Buehrle. Kenny is already planning his "f*ck you speech" to the world after the Sox win the AL Central. The only problem is... that won't happen. The team will plod away a few games under .500, but just close enough that trader Kenny needs to ship off the only pieces of young value we have for some vet he coveted 4 years ago (Vlad Guerrero, I'm sure), and we'll be watching another wasted season. This is why someone else should have been put in charge to navigate this rebuild. Between Sergio and M-56, the White Sox have already lost 5 WAR. It would take legitimate seasons from Dunn and Rios to make up for that, just to put the team where it was last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 12:28 PM) Between Sergio and M-56, the White Sox have already lost 5 WAR. It would take legitimate seasons from Dunn and Rios to make up for that, just to put the team where it was last year. Are you taking into account the WAR Serigio's and Mark's replacement players would contribute? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 01:34 PM) Are you taking into account the WAR Serigio's and Mark's replacement players would contribute? What replacement players? Did we sign some veteran I didn't know about? If Sale and Reed step up to give 5 WAR, that works, but that's not something you can obviously count on, especially with Sale probably hitting an innings slowdown in July. Point is, just from those 2 guys departing, we have 5 WAR to make up somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 12:42 PM) What replacement players? Did we sign some veteran I didn't know about? If Sale and Reed step up to give 5 WAR, that works, but that's not something you can obviously count on, especially with Sale probably hitting an innings slowdown in July. Point is, just from those 2 guys departing, we have 5 WAR to make up somewhere. Dunn alone having an average season for himself at DH would be an enormous WAR turnaround. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scenario Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Regarding Danks value... it's worth playing around with Baseball Musings Day-to-Day Database to see how he compares with other pitchers. (That site is one of my favorite internet toys. Fun to play around with the different search options.) For example... here's a ranking of all MLB pitchers for the 3 year period including 2008-2010 seasons... http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Com...K=0&MinWP=0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 01:59 PM) Dunn alone having an average season for himself at DH would be an enormous WAR turnaround. Really, no it wouldn't...you don't get a lot of WAR at the DH position because that position is on average a pretty decent producer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 11:09 AM) How does Detroit have bullpen issues? Valverde/Benoit/Coke/Dotel is pretty damn good. If they have bullpen issues, then I don't want to know what you'd call our bullpen once Thornton gets traded. Because that should have been a strength of ours coming into 2006....and look how long that lasted. Valverde will be perfect again? How likely is that? Benoit has been pretty darned erratic for most of his career before becoming essentially their version of Jesse Crain. Coke and Dotel don't scare anyone. Solid and experienced veterans? Sure, but we have the same in Crain, Frasor and Ohman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Detroit's pen is fine. You could say the same about any team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 O.R.they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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