Over/Under: $6 Million. Sox' spending on the next MLB draft

[thxfrthmmrs]

This off season, Kenny Williams has finally decided to go into the rebuilding mode. But you cannot rebuild without a strong farm system. Realistically, the Sox aren't going to compete as long as the contracts of Rio/Dunn/Peavy are still in the books, and we aren't likely to sign any impact free agents for the foreseeable future. The only way to rebuild this team is to trade away pieces like Danks, Floyd, CQ and hope for a haul of prospects in return. At the same time, we also need to replenish our really weak and thin farm system through the draft. And we are known to never spend on the draft. We spent less than $3 million on the draft this year, though given, we didn't have an actual first round pick, but it is still really shameful. The total MLB spending on the draft this year is over $230 million.

 

So will JR and KW finally opt to shell out big bucks during the next draft and sign some HS kids with exciting potential? Will it be over or under $6 million?

Edited December 20, 2011 by thxfrthmmrs

[bmags]

I don't think we have to with the new CBA rules.

[thxfrthmmrs]

That's a good point. But the new CBA is trying to guide the teams to allocate a certain amount of money on the draft. The bonus pool as of now ranges from $4.5 mil to $11.5 mil, it will change before the draft, depending on the number of picks a teams has. But teams can still spend less than or over the limit of the range, with a penalty. Teams can still go over slot in latter rounds to sign a player, mostly likely if they are still within the bonus pool. I don't think the Sox would spend $3 mil again in the next draft, I am wondering how much are they willing to spend on the draft to rebuild.

[southsideirish71]

That's a good point. But the new CBA is trying to guide the teams to allocate a certain amount of money on the draft. The bonus pool as of now ranges from $4.5 mil to $11.5 mil, it will change before the draft, depending on the number of picks a teams has. But teams can still spend less than or over the limit of the range, with a penalty. Teams can still go over slot in latter rounds to sign a player, mostly likely if they are still within the bonus pool. I don't think the Sox would spend $3 mil again in the next draft, I am wondering how much are they willing to spend on the draft to rebuild.

 

Well how about actually doing something in the international signing period besides watching other teams invest in it.

 

What will we spend. The minimum required to field a draft. They will throw a decent slot offer to the 1st rounder. After that its slim pickings. Don't think about high school guys. More Jared Mitchell clones.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

We have no choice but to compete with Rios and Dunn, and Peavy to a lesser extent.

 

It is possible to compete in the AL Central "as is" but it certainly won't be easy without Floyd OR Danks and Thornton. We can live without Quentin's production if Viciedo produces, which is a 90% probability. There's also a 90% probability that Quentin will miss a significant portion of games, inevitably lowering his trade value.

 

The other choice is an onerous that is very unlikely to occur, which is packaging one of those 3 contracts (perhaps along with Beckham) with the quality assets we have to trade in Danks/Floyd/Thornton/Quentin and perhaps Alexei Ramirez or Paul Konerko if the right pieces of a deal fall into place. Frasor/Crain could also be included as a sweetener, particularly Crain.

 

The problem with trading an Alexei Ramirez is that he's not easily replaced by Escobar or Martinez.

 

But it's obviously something that will have to be considered over the next 12-15 months.

 

Your "interpolation" that with all the contracts like Peavy, AJ, Danks, Quentin (and probably Thornton) off the books that we will be putting that money back into the draft is unlikely, except for the potentially higher first and second round (supplemental, etc.) draft picks.

 

As far as high school players with "upside," Trayce Thompson is a pretty good example. The problem is that for every 20 raw "diamonds in the rough," you're only going to hit on 2-3 of them. Of course, the more you have in your organization with that kind of talent and physical package, the better off you will be. It's a numbers game. Fairly easy to look back at all the depth in pitching we had between 1998-2002 (when we were the #1 farm system in baseball with Borchard, Garland and Rauch as the centerpieces).....that almost none of them had the MLB careers projected for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Well how about actually doing something in the international signing period besides watching other teams invest in it.

 

What will we spend. The minimum required to field a draft. They will throw a decent slot offer to the 1st rounder. After that its slim pickings. Don't think about high school guys. More Jared Mitchell clones.

 

Don't forget Mr. Walker.

 

It is amusing that the guys like Doyle and Kuhn who actually succeed are always overlooked...by scouts/talent evaluators/front office personnel.

[Balta1701]

Don't forget Mr. Walker.

 

It is amusing that the guys like Doyle and Kuhn who actually succeed are always overlooked...by scouts/talent evaluators/front office personnel.

How many guys that they overlook/let go actually succeed at the major league level?

[caulfield12]

How many guys that they overlook/let go actually succeed at the major league level?

 

Not many.

 

Michael Morse was basically a throw-in with the Garcia deal since at the time he didn't have one strong defensive position, the ability to stay at SS or the power to play 3B/LF.

 

And it took him 5+ years to have a real MLB impact.

[thxfrthmmrs]

We have no choice but to compete with Rios and Dunn, and Peavy to a lesser extent.

 

It is possible to compete in the AL Central "as is" but it certainly won't be easy without Floyd OR Danks and Thornton. We can live without Quentin's production if Viciedo produces, which is a 90% probability. There's also a 90% probability that Quentin will miss a significant portion of games, inevitably lowering his trade value.

 

The other choice is an onerous that is very unlikely to occur, which is packaging one of those 3 contracts (perhaps along with Beckham) with the quality assets we have to trade in Danks/Floyd/Thornton/Quentin and perhaps Alexei Ramirez or Paul Konerko if the right pieces of a deal fall into place. Frasor/Crain could also be included as a sweetener, particularly Crain.

 

The problem with trading an Alexei Ramirez is that he's not easily replaced by Escobar or Martinez.

 

But it's obviously something that will have to be considered over the next 12-15 months.

 

Your "interpolation" that with all the contracts like Peavy, AJ, Danks, Quentin (and probably Thornton) off the books that we will be putting that money back into the draft is unlikely, except for the potentially higher first and second round (supplemental, etc.) draft picks.

As far as high school players with "upside," Trayce Thompson is a pretty good example. The problem is that for every 20 raw "diamonds in the rough," you're only going to hit on 2-3 of them. Of course, the more you have in your organization with that kind of talent and physical package, the better off you will be. It's a numbers game. Fairly easy to look back at all the depth in pitching we had between 1998-2002 (when we were the #1 farm system in baseball with Borchard, Garland and Rauch as the centerpieces).....that almost none of them had the MLB careers projected for them.

 

Not quite. That's not my "interpolation". The Sox need to spend money on the draft immediately if they are committed to rebuild. We cannot wait till the bulky contracts coming off the book then spend on the draft. What I am trying point out is that with Peavy, Dunn and Rios contract in the book, we won't have the ammo to sign key players to rebuild. And we most likely won't rebuild through free agency, unless we get rid of one of those contracts, which would be a long shot. We cannot afford to wait for these contracts to come off the book then rebuild the team. With the trading chips we have now, especially after the new CBA, we won't get many, if any, top tier prospects in return. If we are really committed to rebuild, we need to spend money internationally and through the draft. Thanks to the new CBA, we have to. How much? We don't know.

 

If we fill the roster with mostly guys in house, and not make any significant free agent signings, we can allocate an extra $4-6 mil on the draft. Which would be tremendous. That's the ideal goal, but like some mentioned, unlikely.

 

You mentioned HS kids like Thompson are hit or miss. But isn't that true for ALL prospects? We didn't have much success with some of the "safer" picks we have had. There are teams like the Rays who continually have success in developing HS kids, like Moore, Jennings, Hellickson, etc. It's not entirely impossible. But that's besides the point. I am not advocating in drafting more HS players, but I think we need to increase spending on the draft and international signing in order to rebuild the big league team and our farm system.

Edited December 21, 2011 by thxfrthmmrs

[caulfield12]

Not quite. That's not my "interpolation". The Sox need to spend money on the draft immediately if they are committed to rebuild. We cannot wait till the bulky contracts coming off the book then spend on the draft. What I am trying point out is that with Peavy, Dunn and Rios contract in the book, we won't have the ammo to sign key players to rebuild. And we most likely won't rebuild through free agency, unless we get rid of one of those contracts, which would be a long shot. We cannot afford to wait for these contracts to come off the book then rebuild the team. With the trading chips we have now, especially after the new CBA, we won't get many, if any, top tier prospects in return. If we are really committed to rebuild, we need to spend money internationally and through the draft. Thanks to the new CBA, we have to. How much? We don't know.

 

If we fill the roster with mostly guys in house, and not make any significant free agent signings, we can allocate an extra $4-6 mil on the draft. Which would be tremendous. That's the ideal goal, but like some mentioned, unlikely.

 

You mentioned HS kids like Thompson are hit or miss. But isn't that true for ALL prospects? We didn't have much success with some of the "safer" picks we have had. There are teams like the Rays who continually have success in developing HS kids, like Moore, Jennings, Hellickson, etc. It's not entirely impossible. But that's besides the point. I am not advocating in drafting more HS players, but I think we need to increase spending on the draft and international signing in order to rebuild the big league team and our farm system.

 

Well, we know all the issues with the Dominican.

 

The lack of results in Venezuela has beeen troubling, to say the least.

 

And the "win now" mentality is what usually has us drafting collegiate players who can contribute more immediately, like Sale and Beckham.

 

Maybe the other problem is the poor results we've had in the past when taking young high school pitchers like Jason Stumm and Kris Honel in the first round.

 

Other than that, you have Ramirez/Viciedo/Iguchi/Takatsu.

 

 

And the other downside is with high school players, they're peaking between 26-30, so most guys like Harper, for example, their most productive years will be during that late 20's period with another team. You have to put up with all the growing pains at the big league level...think Delmon Young, for one example.

 

Very few high school players end up dominating from the beginning like an A-Rod or Ken Griffey, Jr.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2011 by caulfield12

[PolishPrince34]

Well, we know all the issues with the Dominican.

 

The lack of results in Venezuela has beeen troubling, to say the least.

 

And the "win now" mentality is what usually has us drafting collegiate players who can contribute more immediately, like Sale and Beckham.

 

Maybe the other problem is the poor results we've had in the past when taking young high school pitchers like Jason Stumm and Kris Honel in the first round.

 

Other than that, you have Ramirez/Viciedo/Iguchi/Takatsu.

 

 

And the other downside is with high school players, they're peaking between 26-30, so most guys like Harper, for example, their most productive years will be during that late 20's period with another team. You have to put up with all the growing pains at the big league level...think Delmon Young, for one example.

 

Very few high school players end up dominating from the beginning like an A-Rod or Ken Griffey, Jr.

High school players who turned out really good right from the beginning: Kershaw, McCutthen, Kemp, Hosmer, Cahill, Fielder, Wright, Sizemore, Pujols, and the list goes on. Some of are better picks with upside the last couple years were high school players: Thompson, Heindenreich, Holmberg, Ravelo. The problem is their weren't many. I'm tired of drafting relievers using a high draft picks: McMilllen, O'Neil, Soptic, Bellamy, Jones. Kenny/Laumaun need to be more open minded and stop mostly focusing on drafting college players with not much upside to them at the Ages of 23-24 who won't be called up until they are 25-26 years and then struggle for the first year or two when arriving to the majors:

Edited December 21, 2011 by PolishPrince34

[caulfield12]

High school players who turned out really good right from the beginning: Kershaw, McCutthen, Kemp, Hosmer, Cahill, Fielder, Wright, Sizemore, Pujols, and the list goes on. Some of are better picks with upside the last couple years were high school players: Thompson, Heindenreich, Holmberg, Ravelo. The problem is their weren't many. I'm tired of drafting relievers using a high draft picks: McMilllen, O'Neil, Soptic, Bellamy, Jones. Kenny/Laumaun need to be more open minded and stop mostly focusing on drafting college players with not much upside to them at the Ages of 23-24 who won't be called up until they are 25-26 years and then struggle for the first year or two when arriving to the majors:

 

 

Everyone missed on Pujols when he was at Fort Osage high school in KC with greg775.

 

Especially the Royals, he was in their backyard.

 

Although I'm almost positive he had at least one year of junior college.

 

Hosmer and Moustakas, those guys were consensus top 5-10 picks.

 

When have we ever drafted that high?

 

Kemp and McCutcheon definitely have (had) some ups and down as well. Hosmer wasn't dominating for a 1B, he was "good" but AL average.

 

 

[PolishPrince34]

Everyone missed on Pujols when he was at Fort Osage high school in KC with greg775.

 

Especially the Royals, he was in their backyard.

 

Although I'm almost positive he had at least one year of junior college.

 

Hosmer and Moustakas, those guys were consensus top 5-10 picks.

 

When have we ever drafted that high?

 

Kemp and McCutcheon definitely have (had) some ups and down as well. Hosmer wasn't dominating for a 1B, he was "good" but AL average.

Come on now Hosmer. Hosmer might be the best young lefty hitter in the game-21 years old. If I was starting a team right now he might be the #1 offense player on the board. He put up solid numbers this year for being called up Mid-June. Hosmer will be a pernenial All Star even with Pujols, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Teixeria. LOL on the Kemp and McCutheon that's just silly talk.

Edited December 21, 2011 by PolishPrince34