2012 Cuban signees thread Cespedes/Soler/Concepcion

[Balta1701]

I think you're undervaluing what Peavy would be worth if he pitches like a legit front of the rotation starter. Once you get to the trade deadline, the price to acquire players usually increases, especially for starting pitching. Look what it cost the Cardinals to acquire Jackson (mid rotation starter) and some relief arms. GMs are willing to pay a premium at the deadline if a player is believed to help them make and/or succeed in the playoffs. With the lack of quality SP, the price is always crazy. We wouldn't have to eat much (if any for a team like the Yankees) of Peavy's salary to get something of decent value for him IF he's pitching like a #1 or #2 starter.

Remember, if you count the option/buyout, Peavy on July 1 is still going to have like $12 million remaining on his deal for the 2nd half of this season. If he's pitching like Jake Peavy 07, you might get a team to take on most of that, but I wouldn't expect much of value in terms of talent alongn with it, just because of the risk of injury recurrence.

 

But if he's pitching well enough to be moved, and the Sox are genuinely noncompetitive, and the Sox can save $5 million out of that pool, that's $5 million that could go towards a legit upgrade next season and maybe even add in a piece. Would require the Sox to chip in a large chunk of that $12 million remaining, but it'd be smart business.

[southsider2k5]

You sure this line of thought isn't incredibly outdated? I know it USED to be that way, but guys seem to defect with regularity now.

 

I sure haven't seen anything that said this has changed.

[Bubba Philips]

At least offensively, absolutely. .792 OPS, hasn't touched .750 since.

 

Defensively he didn't, because he was playing 2b and it took him a while to become a really good SS.

When Ramirez was signed it was alleged that Contreras helped sign Ramirez. Will Ramirez be helping the sox sign Cespedes?

[3E8]

But Alexei made just over $1 million in his first year and Iguchi made just over $2 million. Cespedes will be making probably over $10 million in his first year. Alexei and Iguchi were never All-Star-level players, just solid ones. And for what Cespedes will make, you can't afford for him to provide just league-average offense. And as we saw Alexei and Iguchi peaked in their first years, too.

Cespedes larger price tag will require more analysis by our front office. It remains to be seen how much he will actually get, I don't think it will be greater than $10M on a per year basis. We'll see.

 

I threw out league-average just because that's essentially what Alexei was offensively his first year adjusting to more talented competition. Cespedes has a larger pedigree than Alexei, and would project to be a more valuable hitter. Even if he was just a league-average bat, that's worth about two wins for a healthy corner OF, and three for a CF (not counting any fielding value). The Sox outfield has been devoid of a player who can consistently provide that many wins for awhile.

 

I wouldn't say Alexei peaked offensively his first season. It happens to be his best, but the last two years were almost identical to '08 once adjusted to the league. Iguchi peaking his first season makes sense, he was 30 when he debuted. Already on the downside of the aging curve.

[Milkman delivers]

Peavy has a $17 million salary, plus a $4 million buyout due after this season. So in other words if you get to the middle of the season and want to trade, the team aquiring him will owe Peavy $11.5 million for just the last half of the season. That is a ton of money. He would have to be back to his Cy Young numbers, and have no injuries at all to have anyone even think about it without getting a bunch of cash, or a bad contract, included in the deal.

 

Wouldn't it only be $10.5 million? A measly $10,500,000?

[southsider2k5]

Wouldn't it only be $10.5 million? A measly $10,500,000?

 

Actually I was wrong. Its $12.5 million. $17 million/2 is $8.5 million. +$4 million buyout is $12.5 million.

[Eminor3rd]

Actually I was wrong. Its $12.5 million. $17 million/2 is $8.5 million. +$4 million buyout is $12.5 million.

 

But the deadline is 2/3 of the way through the season, not half.

[southsider2k5]

But the deadline is 2/3 of the way through the season, not half.

 

Even taking that into account, you are still talking about almost $10 million for two months. (17/3=5.67m + $4m buyout) The contract becomes worse with every extra day because of the buyout, not better. You are still stuck with the $4 million buyout, and you have less games pitched to justify it.

[caulfield12]

There's a better chance of moving Andre The Giant than getting rid of those 3 contracts in 2011.

 

Peavy's the only one remotely possible, and we'd have to eat at least $4-6 million of the remaining to make it happen, and be willing to get back the same junk/flotsam/detritus we received for Frasor.

Edited January 5, 2012 by caulfield12

[DirtySox]

Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald says (on Twitter) that the Marlins will withdraw from the Cespedes derby if his price tag exceeds $60MM.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald says (on Twitter) that the Marlins will withdraw from the Cespedes derby if his price tag exceeds $60MM.

That is a kick in the groin if that is true, we need to temper expectations, no way we get that high.

[DirtySox]

That is a kick in the groin if that is true, we need to temper expectations, no way we get that high.

 

I'd prefer the Sox go after Soler instead.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I'd prefer the Sox go after Soler instead.

At this point, would be excited for either one. Forgot that Soler is a potential consolation prize.

[caulfield12]

I'd prefer the Sox go after Soler instead.

 

 

Soler looks more like a Viciedo situation....rather than $30-60 million over 3-5 years and whatever other numbers are being bandied around the Net for Cespedes.

 

Jorge's about the same age as Dayan when he signed with us, 19 or 20.

 

The question is how well can he play CF. We need a legit CFer that can rung rings around Rios and DeAza if we're going to invest $10-15 million into a youngster like this.

 

 

 

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb...-strike-rangers

 

Interesting article about evaluation Japanese players, their posting/bidding numbers versus actual value, scouting....a bit applicable to the Cespedes and Soler situations as well for the Sox.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2012 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There's a better chance of moving Andre The Giant than getting rid of those 3 contracts in 2011.

 

Peavy's the only one remotely possible, and we'd have to eat at least $4-6 million of the remaining to make it happen, and be willing to get back the same junk/flotsam/detritus we received for Frasor.

Since Andre the Giant is dead , he's probably quite easy to move now.

[caulfield12]

•“We really liked him when we saw him at that workout [in November],” said Beinfest to Mike Bernardino of The Sun Sentinel, referring to Yoenis Cespedes. “It’s something we’re continuing to monitor, and we’ll kind of leave it there. But we were very impressed. Obviously, as a Cuban we think it would be an interesting fit in this market and on this ballclub. It’s something we continue to monitor and stay up on.”

 

•Bernardino says teams will submit a sealed bid for Cespedes to his agent Adam Katz through MLB, then have an opportunity to increase their offers. It's unclear if this is an official process, or just how Katz will attempt to find a suitor for the outfielder.

 

[Lillian]

•“We really liked him when we saw him at that workout [in November],” said Beinfest to Mike Bernardino of The Sun Sentinel, referring to Yoenis Cespedes. “It’s something we’re continuing to monitor, and we’ll kind of leave it there. But we were very impressed. Obviously, as a Cuban we think it would be an interesting fit in this market and on this ballclub. It’s something we continue to monitor and stay up on.”

 

•Bernardino says teams will submit a sealed bid for Cespedes to his agent Adam Katz through MLB, then have an opportunity to increase their offers. It's unclear if this is an official process, or just how Katz will attempt to find a suitor for the outfielder.

 

For which team does Beinfest work?

[Milkman delivers]

For which team does Beinfest work?

 

Marlins.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yoenis Cespedes Rumors: Friday

By Mark Polishuk [January 6, 2012 at 5:58pm CST]

Here's the latest on Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes...

 

A source says Cespedes' eventual contract will be in the range of four years and $32MM, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. "Several teams have backed away" from Cespedes' original goal of an eight-year, $60MM contract. Frisaro says the Marlins are among the teams still very interested in the Cuban prospect.

Also from Frisaro, Cespedes is tentatively expected to establish residency in the Dominican Republic on January 15, and then the outfielder will petition Major League Baseball for free agent status.

The Tigers have been relatively quiet this offseason, "intensifying speculation" that the team is waiting on Cespedes to become available, reports James Schmehl of MLive.com. With Delmon Young, Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch pencilled in as Detroit's starting outfield, the Tigers could have to make another move should they sign Cespedes, or just give him limited playing time to ease his transition to the Major Leagues.

 

 

This is from mlbtraderumors...... If the price is really down to 4 years at around $32 million, do the White Sox make a play for him? I believe so.

[caulfield12]

If he goes to the Tigers and becomes a stud All-Star OFer, it's REALLY going to suck.

 

Assuming we do trade Floyd/Thornton and clear that salary space, there's not as good an excuse to let Cespedes go to the Tigers.

 

They already had the 3 best performers in the division overall in Verlander/Cabrera/Valverde, we'll be close to doomed if Cespedes has the impact some are predicting.

 

And, most importantly, they really do need to do ONE positive/exciting thing in the offseason to give the fans a reason to buy tickets or care about the Sox again, besides just Ventura...especially with Buehrle gone.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

On MLB Network yesterday, Heyman made it seem like this guy is a lock for Miami and he's going to get between $50 million and $60 million.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

On MLB Network yesterday, Heyman made it seem like this guy is a lock for Miami and he's going to get between $50 million and $60 million.

 

They do have an opening in the OF, so it makes sense. I don't see how Bonafacio could play CF all year. Plus with Miami having a large Cuban community, I'd be surprised if he didn't have any interest in playing there. It would still be nice for the Sox to get him though.

[DirtySox]

On MLB Network yesterday, Heyman made it seem like this guy is a lock for Miami and he's going to get between $50 million and $60 million.

 

I'm going to guess between $40 and $50 million. I'd still prefer the Sox go after Soler. I think he would fit the contention timeline better and won't break the bank as much. Could one imagine if Kenny gets Cespedes and he's a bust or average at best? He's not necessarily a sure thing. Some baseball people have compared him to Cameron Maybin with more power potential and less speed. He's also not a lock to remain in CF, some see him as a corner guy. Kenny just better be damn sure he would pan out if he plans on giving him such large amount of money.

Edited January 7, 2012 by DirtySox

[iamshack]

I'm going to guess between $40 and $50 million. I'd still prefer the Sox go after Soler. I think he would fit the contention timeline better and won't break the bank as much. Could one imagine if Kenny gets Cespedes and he's a bust or average at best? He's not necessarily a sure thing. Some baseball people have compared him to Cameron Maybin with more power potential and less speed. He's also not a lock to remain in CF, some see him as a corner guy. Kenny just be damn sure he would pan out if he plans on giving him such large amount of money.

If he does get $50-60 million, it will only be from the Marlins...

 

I'm still sticking with my $32 million max number...he's too much of a risk still at this point...but who knows, someone may get caught up in the hype and just go crazy.

[PolishPrince34]

I'm going to guess between $40 and $50 million. I'd still prefer the Sox go after Soler. I think he would fit the contention timeline better and won't break the bank as much. Could one imagine if Kenny gets Cespedes and he's a bust or average at best? He's not necessarily a sure thing. Some baseball people have compared him to Cameron Maybin with more power potential and less speed. He's also not a lock to remain in CF, some see him as a corner guy. Kenny just be damn sure he would pan out if he plans on giving him such large amount of money.

I completely agree with you that Sox should be going after Soler. Soler is 2-3 years away from making an impact and probably has a higher ceiling than Cesepedes. Also, Soler will fall into $12-15 million dollar range and won't count on the international cap for next year.