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2012 Cuban signees thread Cespedes/Soler/Concepcion


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 03:08 AM)
Uh, no. Ozzie benched Ramirez about 4 games into the season and he didn't get another shot until Uribe was hitting so poorly that HE needed to be benched.

 

 

But the argument should have been he would be better off in AAA playing everyday instead of sitting until mid-May...still curious as to who wanted to keep him more, maybe it was KW, he was the one who was so high on him, compared to the majority opinion around baseball.

 

Then again, Ozzie's always seemed to be a pretty big Alexei supporter.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status...661302586744833

WHAT's THE MOROSI TWEET on Cespedes, can't get TWITTER IN CHINA without vpn or proxy

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 12:16 AM)
Cepedes did look awful, and you can't judge based off one game, but man, 0 for 3 with 3 K's looks SO much better in the boxscore than if you actually watched it. He looked completely lost.

 

Out of curiousity, when was the last time the guy played an organized game of baseball.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 04:22 AM)
But the argument should have been he would be better off in AAA playing everyday instead of sitting until mid-May...still curious as to who wanted to keep him more, maybe it was KW, he was the one who was so high on him, compared to the majority opinion around baseball.

 

Then again, Ozzie's always seemed to be a pretty big Alexei supporter.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status...661302586744833

WHAT's THE MOROSI TWEET on Cespedes, can't get TWITTER IN CHINA without vpn or proxy

 

 

@jonmorosi Jon Morosi

From a negotiation standpoint, it makes zero sense for Yoenis Cespedes to play in the DWL. I mean, you won’t see Prince Fielder with Licey.

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 04:08 AM)
Uh, no. Ozzie benched Ramirez about 4 games into the season and he didn't get another shot until Uribe was hitting so poorly that HE needed to be benched.

I believe Uribe got hurt, not benched. When Uribe came back healthy he then took over 3b.

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QUOTE (Real @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 11:40 AM)
6 teams making big offers to Cespedes, Sox Tigers Indians Marlins Orioles Cubs

 

https://twitter.com/#!/dSoldevila/statu...860018937532416

 

Its been a while for my spanish, but that's not what that stated.

 

IIRC it is more like "I have six teams who are most interested in having me."

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 11:55 AM)
Its been a while for my spanish, but that's not what that stated.

 

IIRC it is more like "I have six teams who are most interested in having me."

You'd be correct. The wonders of the internet produce

 

"There are six teams that have interests in me. Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Orioles, Detroit and the Indians"

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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 11:56 AM)
You'd be correct. The wonders of the internet produce

 

"There are six teams that have interests in me. Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Orioles, Detroit and the Indians"

 

Pretty impressive for not having had an ounce of Spanish in almost 20 years :lol:

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/c...talents-in-mlb/

 

 

Yoenis Cespedes made his professional debut Thursday night in the Dominican Winter League. The much-hyped Cuban defector promptly went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a hit by pitch. At least there’s nowhere to go but up.

 

Although Cespedes has yet to establish residency outside of Cuba and is still ineligible to sign as a free agent, the market has largely cleared (outside of Prince Fielder), and thus the Hot Stove’s attention turns his way. Expect the hype to approach and potentially surpass that which surrounded Aroldis Chapman two years ago — Cespedes may not having something as tangible as a 100 MPH fastball, but he does have The Showcase. He also has a tremendous record as one of the Cuban League’s best hitters at just age 26. But it’s difficult enough to project the performance of solid minor leaguers, where data is largely complete and comparables abound. How can we even begin to filter through the noise in Cespedes’s excellent statistical record?

 

 

Start with the facts. Cespedes has been at least good in the Cuban League since his debut in 2004 and has largely destroyed pitchers since 2006.

 

Year Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG

2004 CBA 288 87 17 7 9 28 65 50 42 3 3 0.302 0.379 0.503

2005 CBA 339 106 22 5 15 34 59 69 51 5 2 0.313 0.398 0.540

2006 CBA 339 119 24 4 23 44 43 89 78 8 3 0.351 0.442 0.649

2007 CBA 340 103 24 3 17 42 53 79 66 15 10 0.303 0.398 0.541

2008 CBA 366 104 16 2 26 32 50 82 78 4 4 0.284 0.342 0.552

2009 CBA 328 106 19 0 24 43 40 83 76 4 4 0.323 0.411 0.601

2010 CBA 342 118 19 4 22 42 45 87 67 5 3 0.345 0.426 0.617

2011 CBA 354 118 17 1 33 49 40 89 99 11 3 0.333 0.424 0.667

Although Cespedes shows excellent numbers across the board here, what really stands out is the power. Cespedes has four seasons with at least a .600 slugging percentage and just polished off a 33 home run season in a league where his 354 at-bats was among the league leaders. The pace he set in the 2011 Cubans season was for a whopping 56 home runs. But as Clay Davenport shows us, Cespedes wasn’t the only one to put up big home run totals in the short season.

 

Cespedes was tied for the record this year by Jose Abreu, who did it in 60% as mnay atbats, and there are a whole slew of players right behind them. This looks like a pretty normal leaderboard, not the leaderboard of a record-setting season – which is how you can be pretty sure the record really belongs to the conditions, not the individual. Give him credit for leading the league in HR, but leave the record talk out of it.

 

The leaderboard in question:

 

Name AB HR

Jose Abreu 212 33

Yoennis Cespedes 354 33

Reutilio Hurtado 321 30

Joan Carlos Pedroso 253 29

Frederich Cepeda 305 28

Alexander Malleta 311 27

Alfredo Despaigne 261 27

Edilse Silva 331 25

So although Cespedes was definitely one of the top power hitters in the Cuban League, his exploits are hardly all-world or necessarily the best in his own country. The Cuban parks seem to be very difficult to pitch in. According to Davenport’s translations — which probably have to be taken with a pound of salt given how few players make the transition from Cuban baseball to American professional baseball — Cespedes’s numbers still work out to above-average major league power. I don’t think this is a terribly surprising conclusion — it’s difficult to hit 33 home runs in 350 at-bats in any league. It just doesn’t necessarily mean a 60-homer season is coming in the states.

 

The next question relates to plate discipline. Observe, rough (due to the lack of HBP/sacrifice data) walk rates and strikeout rates for Cespedes’ career.

 

Year BB% K%

2004 8.9 22.6

2005 9.1 17.4

2006 11.5 12.7

2007 11 15.6

2008 8 13.7

2009 11.6 12.2

2010 10.9 13.2

2011 12.2 11.3

Cespedes has shown remarkable improvement from a hack-tastic first season, all the way to the point where he walked more times than he struck out in 2011. However, there is the question of how many of those walks were intentional — he was in the process of setting a new home run record, after all. Either way, Cespedes made excellent contact in each of the past four seasons and although his strikeouts will undoubtedly rise against the higher talent in the MLB, we shouldn’t expect him to be the next Austin Jackson.

 

It’s tougher to get a grip on his ability to take walks. As mentioned, the number may be a bit inflated by intentional walks. However, the number could be deflated because his talent gave him little reason to work counts and take pitches against Cuban pitchers. When you can hit .330 with mammoth power, the marginal gain of working the count is minimal. It’s tough to say if this has developed habits that will be tough to shed against MLB pitchers who can work corners with more deceptive pitches, or if instead he’ll be able to lay off and take walks when they are offered to him. Either way, a walk rate consistently over 10% is most definitely not a red flag.

 

Just looking at the statistics Cespedes compiled in Cuba, there isn’t a glaring weakness which looks to tank his game upon landing with an American (or Torontonian) squad. He was as complete as a player can be in any league. Much of his value depends on his ability to play center field, of which there seems to be optimism around scouts. His Cuban numbers seem to suggest above-average power for the position already, and with any sort of plate discipline he has the ability to push an All-Star level in MLB. With his power and his superior athleticism and strength, the risk factor for Cespedes seems lower than with other relative unknown players, and the reward if he reaches his potential could be incredible.

 

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QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 05:25 PM)
What I don't understand if the Sox have 30M-40M to sign this guy, why can't get we take that money and spend it on more establish players this off season

Because the Sox might be willing to spend that as $8 million a year. And $8 million a year isn't going to make a huge dent in this team right now.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 04:44 PM)
Because the Sox might be willing to spend that as $8 million a year. And $8 million a year isn't going to make a huge dent in this team right now.

 

 

Especially when/if you subtract Floyd/Thornton or Crain from the salary equation, and possibly AJ at midseason and Peavy as well in July/August or at the end of year.

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QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 09:05 PM)
Kenny loves Cespedes and wants to make an attendance-splash move.

Cespedes is an attendance move? A guy who probably starts the year at Charlotte? Are there that many Cuban expats in Chicago to buy tickets? Other than the 2 already on our roster?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 08:11 PM)
Cespedes is an attendance move? A guy who probably starts the year at Charlotte? Are there that many Cuban expats in Chicago to buy tickets? Other than the 2 already on our roster?

 

Yea. I'm not sure I think Cespedes would draw the crowds. A good baseball move though? Sure.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2012 -> 09:11 PM)
Cespedes is an attendance move? A guy who probably starts the year at Charlotte? Are there that many Cuban expats in Chicago to buy tickets? Other than the 2 already on our roster?

 

Signing Cespedes, the hottest free agent OF available, complete with the international hype machine surrounding him would certainly extend attendance interest beyond local Cubans.

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