2012 Cuban signees thread Cespedes/Soler/Concepcion

[southsider2k5]

Yes it is. Every organization in baseball has at least one 18 year old in the lower levels touching 90mph. Hell, the first round of the Rule 4 has a several of them every year.

 

Great. So we have 50ish there. 50 in the entire country is not commonplace.

[macsandz]

Great. So we have 50ish there. 50 in the entire country is not commonplace.

 

I list 86-90mph, you dispute 90mph. I list "at least" one, you dispute one. Whatever.

I have a ton of instructs-league level reports on my desk and if you think 90mph for an 18 year old pitcher is special. You're wrong. It's not.

Edited February 4, 2012 by bucket-of-suck

[Leonard Washington]

I list 86-90mph, you dispute 90mph. I list "at least" one, you dispute one. Whatever.

I have a ton of instructs-league level reports on my desk and if you think 90mph for an 18 year old pitcher is special. You're wrong. It's not.

Lefties his age with that velocity aren't rare, you're right.

 

But lefties his age with that supposed velocity and command of it (and off-speed stuff) are.

 

He is a low ceiling guy, but also a high floor guy. His scouting reports remind me a lot of David Holmberg at a similar age.

[Chicago White Sox]

Lefties his age with that velocity aren't rare, you're right.

 

But lefties his age with that supposed velocity and command of it (and off-speed stuff) are.

 

He is a low ceiling guy, but also a high floor guy. His scouting reports remind me a lot of David Holmberg at a similar age.

This is the key point, the guy has a pretty good chance of being a back of the rotation starter. Floor may not be worth the same as ceiling when signing amateur free agents, but if you feel confident the kid can stick as a left-handed starter, as his floor suggests, then he's fairly valuable, even if his upside is likely to be that of a solid #4 or #5. What is an average #4 worth a year in terms of WAR? More than $1.75 million? If Conception's deal is for four years, then that's his annual salary. Is $1.75 million really that hard to exceed as a starter?

 

Plus the kid is only 19. There's always the chance his fastball goes up a couple ticks or he learns a new pitch. He's still a relatively unknown quantity and his ceiling has a better chance to grow than his floor has to fall.

 

Also, the comparisons to Cole are stupid, as one player was available in a free market and one was not. Cole would have gotten a s***-load more money if he was a Latin American free agent in this post new-CBA environment.

[witesoxfan]

I list 86-90mph, you dispute 90mph. I list "at least" one, you dispute one. Whatever.

I have a ton of instructs-league level reports on my desk and if you think 90mph for an 18 year old pitcher is special. You're wrong. It's not.

 

Thanks for dodging the counterpoints.

 

You're a joke.

[Marty34]

What is an average #4 worth a year in terms of WAR? More than $1.75 million? If Conception's deal is for four years, then that's his annual salary. Is $1.75 million really that hard to exceed as a starter?

 

Wait, this kid is 18! Do you know how many 18 y.o. pitchers in professional baseball never see the big leagues due to injury alone. This is a strange signing because if you wait a year a similar pitching prospect will cost you what 1/10th this price? Concepcion doesn't have the stuff to merit this price tag.

Edited February 4, 2012 by Marty34

[Dick Allen]

I want to make comparisons to Kei Igawa and Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Concepcion, but those aren't fair because those are two monstrous failures, Igawa especially ($26 mill posting fee, 5/$20 contract...lifetime ERA of 6.66).

 

So, I'll propose this instead: Who would you rather have, Tsuyoshi Wada for a 2 year, $8.15 mill contract, or Gerardo Concepcion for up to, say, 8-10 years for $8 million?

 

Seems pretty obvious to me.

Or would you rather take your chances on 16 Latin players giving them $500k each?

 

The bottom line is if this guy was eligible for the draft, he' probably be lucky to get a decent fraction what he's getting from the Cubs. Maybe he's a key in getting another of the Cubans. Other than that, there are a lot of 18 year olds who throw 86-90 and dominate the lesser leagues they are playing in that will get nowhere near $8 million. If this guy were in the draft, would he be a top 10 pick? Bryce Harper got $6.25 million. $4 million is the recommended slot for the #1 pick. There has to be some reason the Cubs made this much of an overpay.

Edited February 4, 2012 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

I list 86-90mph, you dispute 90mph. I list "at least" one, you dispute one. Whatever.

I have a ton of instructs-league level reports on my desk and if you think 90mph for an 18 year old pitcher is special. You're wrong. It's not.

 

I hear an awful lot of talking, and not a lot of anything real. Put up or shut up.

[Chicago White Sox]

Or would you rather take your chances on 16 Latin players giving them $500k each?

 

The bottom line is if this guy was eligible for the draft, he' probably be lucky to get a decent fraction what he's getting from the Cubs. Maybe he's a key in getting another of the Cubans. Other than that, there are a lot of 18 year olds who throw 86-90 and dominate the lesser leagues they are playing in that will get nowhere near $8 million. If this guy were in the draft, would he be a top 10 pick? Bryce Harper got $6.25 million. $4 million is the recommended slot for the #1 pick. There has to be some reason the Cubs made this much of an overpay.

What is so difficult to understand here. Conception's price was driven up because he's a free agent. Harper was a draft pick that had no competition for his services and the only leverage he had was threatening to sit out a year. They are completely different situations and there is no comparison to be made here.

[Chicago White Sox]

Wait, this kid is 18! Do you know how many 18 y.o. pitchers in professional baseball never see the big leagues due to injury alone. This is a strange signing because if you wait a year a similar pitching prospect will cost you what 1/10th this price? Concepcion doesn't have the stuff to merit this price tag.

Because in a year you will be limited on how many dollars you can spend. If you're trying to rebuild and have money to burn, why not bring in as much talent as possible right now? Building through the draft and Latin American signings is going to take longer under the new CBA, since teams can no longer spend freely. The Cubs are smart to take advantage of this loophole while they still can, even if they have to pay a premium for the talent.

[southsider2k5]

What is so difficult to understand here. Conception's price was driven up because he's a free agent. Harper was a draft pick that had no competition for his services and the only leverage he had was threatening to sit out a year. They are completely different situations and there is no comparison to be made here.

 

It is still $7 million we are talking about. That doesn't change. The talent of Concepcion also doesn't change. You didn't get Bryce Harper, you got a 5th starter at best.

[Balta1701]

It is still $7 million we are talking about. That doesn't change. The talent of Concepcion also doesn't change. You didn't get Bryce Harper, you got a 5th starter at best.

We're really stretching terms here. Are you saying this is a guy who will put up a 6.00 ERA at best, a normal number for a 5th starter?

[southsider2k5]

We're really stretching terms here. Are you saying this is a guy who will put up a 6.00 ERA at best, a normal number for a 5th starter?

 

Ask the pundits and scouts who are saying what Concepcion is.

[Marty34]

Because in a year you will be limited on how many dollars you can spend. If you're trying to rebuild and have money to burn, why not bring in as much talent as possible right now?

 

Because next year the price for a similar talent will be severely discounted.

 

Building through the draft and Latin American signings is going to take longer under the new CBA, since teams can no longer spend freely.

 

Not really. The talent pool might not be as good, but that's all relative. A team that has the best draft when the talent pool is rated a C is still ahead of the team that had the second best draft.

 

The Cubs are smart to take advantage of this loophole while they still can, even if they have to pay a premium for the talent.

 

I don't understand how it is smart to pay a premium for non-premium talent.

Edited February 4, 2012 by Marty34

[Balta1701]

Because next year the price for a similar talent will be severely discounted.

But also less available because "outspending teams" for that talent will be near impossible.

[Harry Chappas]

I don't understand how it is smart to pay a premium for non-premium talent.

 

Theo is the modern day Midas

 

[Marty34]

Theo is the modern day Midas

 

Really. Theo's proprietary advanced metrics must see something in this 18 y.o. Cuban lefty with middling stuff.

[Balta1701]

Really. Theo's proprietary advanced metrics must see something in this 18 y.o. Cuban lefty with middling stuff.

Dude, you're acting like KW signed him.

[Dick Allen]

What is so difficult to understand here. Conception's price was driven up because he's a free agent. Harper was a draft pick that had no competition for his services and the only leverage he had was threatening to sit out a year. They are completely different situations and there is no comparison to be made here.

So basically you are saying every draft pick is extremely underpaid. There is a huge comparison to be made here. An 18 year old with an 86 MPH fastball is getting $8 million, an amount of money the majority of people won't make in their lifetimes from a team who is begging for public aid to fund a stadium renovation. I hope someone points out to Ricketts he must have a ton of cash lying around if he thinks this guy is worth that sum. Its crazy.

[Marty34]

But also less available because "outspending teams" for that talent will be near impossible.

 

I think that's overstated. First, what alternatives will the international players have? Second, HS'ers won't be able to better their signing bonus by all that much by going to college. The HS'er who is worth an $800,000 signing bonus will be drafted in the appropriate slot now, not in the 12th round.

[Chicago White Sox]

It is still $7 million we are talking about. That doesn't change. The talent of Concepcion also doesn't change. You didn't get Bryce Harper, you got a 5th starter at best.

I don't get what your point is. The $7 million was the market rate for Conception. Multiple teams bid on him and one felt he was worth $7 million. I'm sure others made offers close to that amount. Would he have gotten this much money last year? Definitely not, but this is an entirely different market. Teams are willing to spend big dollars to get the best talent they can before Latin American signings and the draft become capped. The value of young talent is simply greater now and that requires a premium in terms of cost. Maybe he was worth $3 million last year, but in today's market he's worth $7 million. So people can call it an overpay if they like, but I'd rather recognize it as the result of a new, unique marketplace.

 

As for the talent comment, what do you mean it doesn't change? The kid is 18 years old. His ceiling is based on current projections of how his body and pitches will develop. Those projections will change as he gets older and continues to develop. He's no different than any other high-school pitcher in that sense. If you really don't think talent can change, then explain how Matt Moore went from an 8th round draft pick to one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

[Balta1701]

So basically you are saying every draft pick is extremely underpaid.

Effectively, yes. That's why "Developing young talent" is so important for a successful team, because you have players that are outperforming their contracts.

[Marty34]

The value of young talent is simply greater now and that requires a premium in terms of cost. Maybe he was worth $3 million last year, but in today's market he's worth $7 million. So people can call it an overpay if they like, but I'd rather recognize it as the result of a new, unique marketplace.

 

Agreed that the market for young talent requires an extreme premium which to me says it's a place you might want to stay away from right now.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I think that's overstated. First, what alternatives will the international players have? Second, HS'ers won't be able to better their signing bonus by all that much by going to college. The HS'er who is worth an $800,000 signing bonus will be drafted in the appropriate slot now, not in the 12th round.

You do realize that international spending will be capped in the new CBA? Teams will only be able to acquire so much talent. A team like the Cubs will not be able to simply throws piles of money at Latin American players like they had originally planned. They will have a set dollar amount to work with, which will slow down their rebuilding plans. So now they are being proactive and going after the Cubans, because they can use their huge piles of money they've been saving to improve the talent base of their organization while they still can. Conception is far from an elite prospect, but he makes more sense than spending $7 million on a reliever or some other major league piece that won't help the Cubs win anything.

[Marty34]

You do realize that international spending will be capped in the new CBA? Teams will only be able to acquire so much talent. A team like the Cubs will not be able to simply throws piles of money at Latin American players like they had originally planned. They will have a set dollar amount to work with, which will slow down their rebuilding plans. So now they are being proactive and going after the Cubans, because they can use their huge piles of money they've been saving to improve the talent base of their organization while they still can. Conception is far from an elite prospect, but he makes more sense than spending $7 million on a reliever or some other major league piece that won't help the Cubs win anything.

 

. . . So the Cubs panicked.