k0na breaks story on Danks 5 years/$65mil ext...Heyman confirms

[hogan873]

Count me in the "I seriously was caught totally off-guard by this" group.

I'm a member of this group, too.

[Soxbadger]

If the Sox rebuild for 2 years, Danks would still have 3 left.

 

I just cant imagine the Sox ever planned to rebuild for longer than 3 years.

[iamshack]

I'm a member of this group, too.

I think everyone is a member of this group.

 

But sense can be made from it if you read between the lines a bit, which apparently, Keith Law cannot.

[chw42]

Chw42,

 

No Law really doesnt know baseball. In 2009 he voted the NL Cy Young as follows:

 

My NL Cy Young ballot was

 

1. Tim Lincecum

 

2. Javier Vazquez

 

3. Adam Wainwright

 

Chris Carpenter had an era+ of 182, Javy 143.

 

His argument was that Carpenter pitched 3 less games and therefore that made up for half a run era difference. Hes literally baseball stupid.

 

Law was also voting based off of FIP, which Vazquez bested Carpenter in (barely, I might add).

 

I didn't agree with what he did, but it's not like he did it blindly.

[chw42]

Yep.

 

Law only started working for Blue Jays in 2002, and stopped in 2006. Obviously it was all of the success those Blue Jays teams had that caused him to resign.

 

I wonder if he had anything to do with that Wells extension.

[PolishPrince34]

Law was also voting based off of FIP, which Vazquez bested Carpenter in (barely, I might add).

 

I didn't agree with what he did, but it's not like he did it blindly.

No one ever said he's an expert on voting. Law's knowledge comes from knowing and analyzing the farm systems. I think Law is very good at that and ESPN would agree. Law just needs to lighten up on his sarcasm.

[hi8is]

wtf????

woza.

 

i'm baffled.

[Soxbadger]

Chw42,

 

If he went by FIP Carpenter was 2.78 and Wainwright was 3.11. 2 other NL pitchers had better FIP than Wainwright (Kershaw and Johnson).

 

He stated it was because Carpenter threw 27 less innings. There is just no other statistical explanation (advanced or not).

[ScottyDo]

Law is being silly. I admit, it's somewhat perplexing, but this is a move you CAN do during a rebuild. You don't pass on talented young lefties long-term for less-than-market just because you're rebuilding. Does he assume that it was going to be a >5-year rebuild or something?

 

Not saying I saw it coming, nor that I have any idea what's coming next. But because of the alluring numbers involved with this deal, I don't see this signing as contradicting either a rebuilding or contending mindset.

[Soxbadger]

No one ever said he's an expert on voting. Law's knowledge comes from knowing and analyzing the farm systems. I think Law is very good at that and ESPN would agree. Law just needs to lighten up on his sarcasm.

 

Simply because most people with jobs dont have the time to watch minor league players and actually rate them, so there is very little way to know if he actually has a clue.

 

When it comes to things that a normal person can actually watch and compare, Keith Law really is not beuno.

[chw42]

Chw42,

 

If he went by FIP Carpenter was 2.78 and Wainwright was 3.11. 2 other NL pitchers had better FIP than Wainwright (Kershaw and Johnson).

 

He stated it was because Carpenter threw 27 less innings. There is just no other statistical explanation (advanced or not).

 

FWIW, 27 innings is worth about a whole win (in terms of WAR) at the FIPs those three guys put up.

 

Vazquez and Wainwright both had higher fWAR than Carpenter that season. Wainwright literally edged Carpenter out by .1 wins, Vazquez was an entire win better.

[CyAcosta41]

Yeah, I almost included Floyd in my original post, but my guess is that if the market for Danks isn't great, it's not going to be much better for Floyd.

 

I don't know how badly we have to dump salary at this point, but Gavin at $7 million this year is one of our more valuable assets. I'd much rather deal Quentin since we have replacements in house than deal Floyd since we'll be trying to plug in Sale and Humber and one other guy (if we move Floyd) and crossing our fingers.

 

Who knows though...this deal might have forced the sacrifice of Floyd...we'll just have to wait and see...

 

Hey Shack, but for the same reason that Gavin is one of OUR most valuable assets, it's exactly why he'll fetch a better market return than Danks. In my opinion, Danks (relative to Floyd) is the better overall pitcher, the one more likely to have a quality plus 2012, and he's the "lefty" (always more valuable than the righty in the baseball marketplace). But what Kenny discovered (hopefully "rediscovered," because it's not exactly a brand new concept) I think, and certainly the Latos trade revealed, is that trade value is a matrix which includes ability, durability, economics, and control. There were not going to be many teams willing to pay anything close to Danks' value as a talent because of Danks' defects as an asset. The overall matrix score for Gavin is probably higher. Pre Danks' new contract, Gavin Floyd was likely the better asset.

 

I don't see it as a sacrifice of Floyd, I see it as an internal commitment to flip certain assets for younger and cheaper talent. Today's marketplace has made it clear that we'd get nowhere near fair value for Danks, well, then segue to Plan B and see if better value is out there for Floyd.

[caulfield12]

Simply because most people with jobs dont have the time to watch minor league players and actually rate them, so there is very little way to know if he actually has a clue.

 

When it comes to things that a normal person can actually watch and compare, Keith Law really is not beuno.

 

 

He's worth about as much as a combinacion platter at TACO BUENO.

[flavum]

Don't expect year-by-year terms, no-trade info, etc, or even a comment from Kenny until next week after Danks passes a physical.

[nickofypres]

I hope he isn't flipped now.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Could this be an extension that has been agreed to by another team?

[iamshack]

Hey Shack, but for the same reason that Gavin is one of OUR most valuable assets, it's exactly why he'll fetch a better market return than Danks. In my opinion, Danks (relative to Floyd) is the better overall pitcher, the one more likely to have a quality plus 2012, and he's the "lefty" (always more valuable than the righty in the baseball marketplace). But what Kenny discovered (hopefully "rediscovered," because it's not exactly a brand new concept) I think, and certainly the Latos trade revealed, is that trade value is a matrix which includes ability, durability, economics, and control. There were not going to be many teams willing to pay anything close to Danks' value as a talent because of Danks' defects as an asset. The overall matrix score for Gavin is probably higher. Pre Danks' new contract, Gavin Floyd was likely the better asset.

 

I don't see it as a sacrifice of Floyd, I see it as an internal commitment to flip certain assets for younger and cheaper talent. Today's marketplace has made it clear that we'd get nowhere near fair value for Danks, well, then segue to Plan B and see if better value is out there for Floyd.

Yeah, that could be Cy...I agree that overall, Gavin may be worth more on the trade market, but my guess is they would fetch about the same thing right now...one solid prospect. The better play may be to take Gavin with you into the season and see where our club goes and see what kind of market develops for him in June.

 

It's just so difficult to speculate right now because we don't know where they need to be on payroll.

[Heads22]

Could this be an extension that has been agreed to by another team?

 

No.

[caulfield12]

Could this be an extension that has been agreed to by another team?

 

 

Similar to the Freddy Garcia acquisition...

[caulfield12]

Yeah, that could be Cy...I agree that overall, Gavin may be worth more on the trade market, but my guess is they would fetch about the same thing right now...one solid prospect. The better play may be to take Gavin with you into the season and see where our club goes and see what kind of market develops for him in June.

 

It's just so difficult to speculate right now because we don't know where they need to be on payroll.

 

 

The best guesses out there are $95 on the low side, $105-110 on the high side.

[SOXOBAMA]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/John-Da...rce-says-122111

[southsider2k5]

Cowley saying what some of you said here, that there wasn't a market for Danks so they locked him up and teams know what they will have to pay now.

 

Cowley also adds that he still might be traded, also when last talked to Danks, John was in trade mode, and this had to go down very quickly.

 

Translation: I was wrong when I wrote that Danks hated Cooper and now I need to save face.

[southsider2k5]

Similar to the Freddy Garcia acquisition...

 

That took about a month to work out.

[Soxfest]

The guy who broke this is gold ................i believe what he says he has a good track record IMO!

[Chisoxfn]

I think the next move would be to move FLOYD and Quentin. With another quality starter now off the market, solid and durable Gavin, with his two years of affordable control, has real value to a pitching starved contender (or teams like the O's or Nats). Kenny just help make his own leverage -- now be patient dude, and ... use the leverage when you have it. Quentin has some value -- injury issues or not, his right-handed power numbers are not easy to find, he's not that expensive, and a team trading for him is only committing for one year. I like the idea of packaging him with Floyd for a decent package, but he can be traded in a reasonable trade.

 

I'd actually keep Matt for the time being. Baseball is a funny game. Play the game and see what happens. While maybe not likely, it's certainly possible that turnaround years from some of the usual suspects combined with new on-field leadership can inject some sorely needed vitality into this group. It's happened other places. If we're contending, then we benefit from having Matt Thornton's stuff and experience; if we're not, then some contender will absolutely take Thornton for the stretch-run, even if it's purely a salary dump (and it will likely be just that).

 

There are all sorts of things that led to Danks being signed, but kudos to Kenny for having the cajones to do the right thing and change up on his likely plan given our circumstances right this moment. I don't view it as waffling or being contradictory, I view it as having the guts to alter course as the target moves.

 

And truck Keith Law anyway. What a joker. His anti-Sox bias has been obvious for years. I can't understand how anyone could care what he thinks about the Sox, a Sox prospect, or a Sox move.

 

All things considered, I feel better about the Sox today than I did yesterday.

Right now I'm confused at what the Sox plan is but my guess is you don't resign Danks to move Floyd. You need starting pitchers and with Peavy coming off the books a year from now you can still build a rotation around Danks/Floyd. Is it a great rotation, no, but could be solid, depending on what happens with Molina, Sale, etc. I imagine the Sox will move Quentin for the right price and if they got the right offer for Floyd would make a trade as well (key being the right offer).

 

In general, I'm really confused right now. If you get Cepedes and go with this than I wonder what the Sox plan really is? They would seem to be getting younger but they are still in a bind with Peavy/Rios/Dunn. Those three truly put the Sox in a real bad spot.

 

If I were to guess, the Sox are going to look at moving Alexei, Thornton, and Quentin. I'm probably talking out of my butt, but all make decent returns, are close to or on the wrong side of 30, and could command pretty good value in return.