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k0na breaks story on Danks 5 years/$65mil ext...Heyman confirms


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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 02:59 PM)
In other words: CJ Wilson money (5/$77.5M) and I agree 100%. k0na has most definitely earned our respect as a source of information so I don't doubt that the Sox are making a push to re-sign Danks but that number makes zero sense. Wasn't it someone on here who was pushing the StateStSports blog? It seems awful convenient to throw a number out there after k0na reports that an extension is imminent, I just don't get why they would go with such a low number when the smart money would be on CJ Wilson money. I guess the only way it would make sense for JR to give a 5 year deal to a starter if he could get him at his price? Not terrible logic, still doesn't make a ton of sense from Danks' perspective unless 2010 just scared the hell out of him.

 

Yeah, it was Jimbo.

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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 02:59 PM)
In other words: CJ Wilson money (5/$77.5M) and I agree 100%. k0na has most definitely earned our respect as a source of information so I don't doubt that the Sox are making a push to re-sign Danks but that number makes zero sense. Wasn't it someone on here who was pushing the StateStSports blog? It seems awful convenient to throw a number out there after k0na reports that an extension is imminent, I just don't get why they would go with such a low number when the smart money would be on CJ Wilson money. I guess the only way it would make sense for JR to give a 5 year deal to a starter if he could get him at his price? Not terrible logic, still doesn't make a ton of sense from Danks' perspective unless 2010 just scared the hell out of him.

 

Yes it was.

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Given his style, his repertoire, his demonstrated durability, and his continuing ability to be left-handed, a young lefty like John Danks is exactly the kind of pitcher you "consider" inking to a (gasp) five year deal. 5 for anywhere from $55M to $70M would really be a sound deal for a solid number 2 or 3 style lefty who could flash ace potential for stretches or perhaps in a career year.

 

Maybe they bonus him up next year thereby raising him into the new contract immediately.

 

Maybe they've given him some comfort about their current plans for brother Jordan (by all accounts the Danks family is VERY close).

 

And consider this, by inking their own (whose contract made him worth far less on the trade market than pitchers who he is arguably superior to), they take away another possible starting pitcher away from some of the pitching starved teams, thereby in effect fueling the market higher for the coming trade of Gavin Floyd. I'd much rather have Danks long-term than Floyd and Floyd is far more replaceable for us. Yet, two years of cost-controlled Gavin Floyd could be very attractive to the Beasts of the A.L. East (Yank-mes, Carmines, and the improving Jays), plus Gavin's hometown O's, and plus the Baltimore area Nats (HOWEVER, Rizzo will need to bend-over big-time before I do business with him).

 

Inking Danks, trading Gavin, Thornton, and CQ (Gavin from a position of real strength, CQ getting something reasonable, and poor Mattie being essentially a salary dump), and then signing Cespedes could make 2012 interesting while breaking things up enough that we have player and financial room to maneuver a bit in the future.

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QUOTE (heirdog @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 03:09 PM)
I asked k0na if it was 5/$54 and he first said "I can't confirm or deny at this time dude" and then later said "how about this, one of those numbers is right"

 

So now we have all the clues...3/$54 or 5/$75...it's like price is right.

 

5/75 makes the most sense.

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QUOTE (heirdog @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 03:09 PM)
I asked k0na if it was 5/$54 and he first said "I can't confirm or deny at this time dude" and then later said "how about this, one of those numbers is right"

 

So now we have all the clues...3/$54 or 5/$75...it's like price is right.

 

3/54 would make sense from JR's philosophy about pitcher's contracts.

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QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 12:14 PM)
With this rumor as well as the Cespedes one, I guess KW has changed his mind about rebuilding.

Or it really is a more retooling process more than anything else. Sox looking to go younger and Danks would make sense (especially if you had other guys).

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 04:10 PM)
5/75 makes the most sense.

This kind of deal would be nuts for the White Sox to sign. That's effectively market value for Danks right now. That's a "We're all in" kinda deal, paying market value for a pitcher who isn't a clear #1.

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QUOTE (heirdog @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 03:09 PM)
I asked k0na if it was 5/$54 and he first said "I can't confirm or deny at this time dude" and then later said "how about this, one of those numbers is right"

 

So now we have all the clues...3/$54 or 5/$75...it's like price is right.

So CJ Wilson got an average annual value of $15.5M on his deal over 5 years. Danks still has arbitration coming up for 2012, I'd place an $8.5M value on that season leaving us with 4 years to work with, bump the $15.5M AAV to $16M as a showing of good faith and loyalty over 4 free agent seasons would bring the total value to $72.5M. Toss in a 6th year option/buyout or signing bonus of $2.5M (same as CJ) and the total value moves to 5/$75M. Kinda seems right. That's just so much f***ing money, I can't imagine JR paying.

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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 04:21 PM)
So CJ Wilson got an average annual value of $15.5M on his deal over 5 years. Danks still has arbitration coming up for 2012, I'd place an $8.5M value on that season leaving us with 4 years to work with, bump the $15.5M AAV to $16M as a showing of good faith and loyalty over 4 free agent seasons would bring the total value to $72.5M. Toss in a 6th year option/buyout or signing bonus of $2.5M (same as CJ) and the total value moves to 5/$75M. Kinda seems right. That's just so much f***ing money, I can't imagine JR paying.

With where the White Sox are right now, offering that deal makes zero sense.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 03:23 PM)
With where the White Sox are right now, offering that deal makes zero sense.

No, it does not. Then again I really won't complain, I Love John Danks and I'm no longer going to pretend to understand how the White Sox organization is run, if they want to spend in odd places then go for it, i'm done predicting payrolls year to year.

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What friggin direction is this team going in?

 

I'd love to complain more , but I honestly have no confidence in KW getting a good deal for Danks anyway.

 

And if this deal is true and it is HUGE like suggested, I'm weary because as someone mentioned earlier, Danks hasn't been the best. He had one really good season and mostly mediocre to average seasons since.

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QUOTE (Cali @ Dec 21, 2011 -> 04:28 PM)
What friggin direction is this team going in?

 

I'd love to complain more , but I honestly have no confidence in KW getting a good deal for Danks anyway.

 

And if this deal is true and it is HUGE like suggested, I'm weary because as someone mentioned earlier, Danks hasn't been the best. He had one really good season and mostly mediocre to average seasons since.

In the Fangraphs world, Danks has been a $13 million+ pitcher every season of his career other than his rookie year, with that notable peak in 08.

 

That's why I said that 5/$75 is basically market value for him right now.

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