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Adam Dunn is not done


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http://www.suntimes.com/sports/10213410-57...behind-him.html

 

As painful as it was for Sox fans to watch, believe Dunn when he tells you it was worse for him. To his credit, he took the public beatings like a pro. No excuses, no hiding from the media, no finger-pointing.

 

As the Sox’ high hopes coincided with Dunn’s failures, there was no escaping the stunning results for one of the most prolific power hitters of all time. In 2010, Dunn batted .260 with 38 home runs, a career-high 36 doubles and 103 RBI for the Washington Nationals. Only Albert Pujols, Eddie Mathews and Ralph Kiner hit more home runs in their first 10 seasons than Dunn.

 

“Everything I’ve done my entire life has been discredited by one stupid year,’’ said Dunn, 32, who hit only 11 homers and drove in 42 runs in 2011. “Maybe discredited is not the word, but that’s kind of how I feel.

 

“I don’t want to make excuses. There are a few things that I probably look back on and say, ‘I shouldn’t have done this or that,’ a few things I probably would have done a little differently, but it’s over with. I can’t take it back. I don’t want to say anything that would sound like excuses. That’s the last thing I want because there are no excuses. I should have been able to get out of it, and I couldn’t.’’

 

Dunn, who had never hit during the offseason before this one, said he’s hitting four times a week.

 

But there’s no truth to a rumor making the rounds that Dunn will show up at SoxFest this weekend 30 pounds lighter. Dunn’s offseason workout routine hasn’t changed drastically, although he has worked out more because his new home is closer to a facility.

 

“I don’t stand on the scale in front of the mirror or anything like that,’’ Dunn said.

 

“I’ve been swinging the bat a little bit and doing things [working out] I’ve always done, just a little more. One of my buddies is a former minor-league guy who likes to go over there and see if he can still throw. I wouldn’t say I’m hitting five days a week. Some weeks we’ll go four times; some weeks we won’t go at all.

 

“I just know that my body feels good. I feel healthy. I feel great. I’m ready to get back. I’m just ready to get going.’’

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“I’ve been swinging the bat a little bit and doing things [working out] I’ve always done, just a little more. One of my buddies is a former minor-league guy who likes to go over there and see if he can still throw. I wouldn’t say I’m hitting five days a week. Some weeks we’ll go four times; some weeks we won’t go at all.

 

I think an athlete who has tens of millions and has a team that is counting on him, I expect him to sprint uphill like Walter Payton. I wish he had actually done something like this:

I hired a dietitian and a personal trainer to really push the envelope. I really decided to rededicate myself to the game I love. I also hired a right handed and a left handed pitcher to pitch batting practice to me 6 days a week. I'm not going to tell you how I plan to bounce back, I plan to show everyone. I have all of the money I need now, I just want to experience a World Series victory. I no longer take anything for granted.

 

 

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Honestly, the articles on Dunn's off-season are not giving me much faith in him having a major rebound. Hasn't gotten in better shape, hasn't swung the bat much, and hasn't watched any tape of his terrible 2011 to determine if there are mechanical flaws that need correcting.

 

If I were Dunn, I would have spent the entire off-season trying figure what caused my problems in 2011 and done anything in my power correcting them. Sounds like the off-season getting over his embarrassment.

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QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 09:24 AM)
I think an athlete who has tens of millions and has a team that is counting on him, I expect him to sprint uphill like Walter Payton. I wish he had actually done something like this:

I hired a dietitian and a personal trainer to really push the envelope. I really decided to rededicate myself to the game I love. I also hired a right handed and a left handed pitcher to pitch batting practice to me 6 days a week. I'm not going to tell you how I plan to bounce back, I plan to show everyone. I have all of the money I need now, I just want to experience a World Series victory. I no longer take anything for granted.

 

 

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 09:58 AM)
Real inspiring stuff. This guy had a chance to come out an address the worst season in history for the money he was paid and he casually talks about how he's hit a little and hasn't lost weight and he's fine and whatever....

 

Enjoy the boos Donkey.

 

And if he would have said that stuff, all we would have heard was b****ing about it being seasonal fluff.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 10:00 AM)
And if he would have said that stuff, all we would have heard was b****ing about it being seasonal fluff.

 

B.S. People want the guy to succeed. Sox fans want to like the guy. He's been a star pro athlete a long time. He knows the drill. For him to come off so casual after that epic disaster is intentional and fans are going to resent it. Bad move big guy.

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QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 10:02 AM)
I've said it before here, I just don't think he's gonna recover much. He is not the player he was for whatever reason.

I know what you're getting at, but there's a better chance that last year was just a bad year (for whatever reason) than him suddenly not being able to play like he used to ever again. No, I don't have any facts, data, or stats, but in my opinion he'll rebound. I'm not certain he'll hit 40 HRs, but I expect a season closer to his career norm.

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QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 10:06 AM)
B.S. People want the guy to succeed. Sox fans want to like the guy. He's been a star pro athlete a long time. He knows the drill. For him to come off so casual after that epic disaster is intentional and fans are going to resent it. Bad move big guy.

 

Um, go back and read the previous posts in this very thread.

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Finally someone finds a relative comp for Dunn's season, nice work.

 

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/25/2728481/...ions-statistics

 

What Will Become Of Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox throws his bat after striking out against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

 

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By Wendy Thurm - Contributor

 

Adam Dunn suffered the worst one-year decline of any slugger in the last ten years. Will he make a comeback in 2012?

 

Follow @sbnbaseball on Twitter, and Like Baseball Nation on Facebook.

 

Jan 25, 2012 - Adam Dunn could thump. And mash. And pound. Oh, could he thump.

 

Adam Dunn could work the count. Take a walk. Get on base. Oh, could he work the count.

 

Adam Dunn could strike out. Oh, could he strike out.

 

And then it stopped. Not the strikeouts. Those kept coming. So did his ability to work the count, to some extent. But the thumping and the mashing. They just stopped.

 

And no one really knows why.

 

With the Reds and then the Nationals, Dunn hit more home runs between 2004 and 2010 than any other National League player not named Pujols. And the numbers are closer than you might think. Albert Pujols hit 294 home runs in those seven seasons; Dunn hit 282. If, like me, you rely on calculators and stuff, that's more than 40 home runs on average per season for seven consecutive seasons.

 

Dunn walked more times than other National League player in those same seven seasons. 750 walks, 56 more than Pujols.

 

Of course, Dunn also struck out more than any other player in the National League, and it wasn't particularly close. 1,262 strike outs, 227 more than Ryan Howard, although Howard did play 233 fewer games.

 

Dunn is the classic "three true outcomes" player. Unfortunately, in 2011, it was more like "three true outs."

 

Dunn's struggles in 2011 -- his first season with the Chicago White Sox -- were well-documented, here and elsewhere. Although Dunn never hit for average, he still posted a respectable career batting average of .250 prior to 2011. That dropped to .159 last season. .159. That's lower than the batting average of fifteen National League pitchers last season with at least 60 at-bats.

 

But the power outage is even more shocking. His career slugging percentage through the 2010 season was .523. In 2011, it was .277.

 

.277. As a slugging percentage.

 

And he ended the season with only 11 home runs.

 

Dunn did continue to walk at close to his career rate. Through 2010, his walk rate was 16.3 percent. Last season it was 15.1 percent. Which probably says more about the pitchers in the American League Central than anything else.

 

Possible explanations abound.

 

(1) Dunn started to decline in 2010 (which is true) and at 31 years old, he simply declined faster than expected.

 

(2) Dunn he was particularly unlucky in 2011, as evidenced by a BABIP that was 89 points lower than in 2010 and 50 points lower than his career average.

 

(3) Dunn had difficultly adjusting to being a full-time designated hitter after moving over from the National League. An adjustment that wasn't anticipated by Dunn or others.

 

(4) Dunn had a difficulty adjusting to American League pitching.

 

(5) U.S. Cellular Field, where Dunn played his home games, has a park factor of 108 for strikeouts for left-handed batters, meaning that LH batters strike out 8 percent more frequently in that ballpark as compared to the average yard. Nationals Park, where Dunn played home games in 2009 and 2010, has a park factor of 94 for strikeouts for LH batters. So that's a 14 percent swing from one season to the next. On the other hand, U.S. Cellular's park factor for left handed batters to hit home runs is 32 percent greater than National Park.

 

(6) Dunn never fully recovered from an appendectomy performed on April 5, just as the season was getting underway. Doctors performed the surgery laparoscopically, which is safer and easier on the body. But recovery time is still one to three weeks, with a full recovery taking up to six weeks. Dunn sat out only seven games and never went on the disabled list. In fact, over his eleven-year career, Dunn spent time on the DL only once, back in 2003. He's otherwise been incredibly healthy.

 

(7) Dunn crumbled under the weight of his 4-year/$56 million contract with the White Sox. Or the expectations surrounding it.

 

It could have been any of these things. Or some of them. Or all of them. Or none of them.

 

We don't know. The White Sox don't know. Dunn doesn't know.

 

Dunn recently told the Chicago Sun-Times:

 

I don't want to make excuses. There are a few things that I probably look back and say, "I shouldn't have done this or that," a few things I probably would have done a little differently, but it's over with. I can't take it back. I don't want to say anything that would sound like excuses. That's the last thing I want because there are no excuses. I should have been able to get out of it, and I couldn't.

 

What we do know is this: There's only been one other "slugger" -- one other "three true outcomes" player -- in the last ten years to have a one-year decline close to what Dunn experienced in 2011. One.

 

That's the bad news.

 

The good news is that the slugger bounced back the next season to post numbers better than his career averages.

 

That slugger was Jim Thome.

 

In 2005, in his age-34 season, Thome hit .207/.360/.352 for the Phillies. This came after a season in which he hit .274/.396/.571 and 42 home runs. Granted, Thome only played 59 games in 2005, with two stints on the DL -- one for 15 days with a strained lower back, and one for 60 days with elbow surgery. It seems likely that his injuries, and his sporadic playing time, contributed significantly to his poor production.

 

But at age 35, he did bounce back, posting a line of .288/.416/.598 and hitting 42 home runs. For the White Sox. As the designated hitter.

 

Yes, David Ortiz had a down year in 2009 and came roaring back in 2010 and 2011. But his "down year" production was .238/.332/.462 -- no where near the power outage Dunn experienced. And yes, Carlos Pena batted .196 in 2010 for the Rays, but he still slugged .407 and had an on-base percentage of .325. No where near Dunn's numbers from 2011.

 

What will become of Adam Dunn in 2012? I don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows.

 

But Dunn is ready to get started. More from the Sun-Times:

 

Dunn, who had never hit during the offseason before this one, said he's hitting four times a week.

 

--snip--

 

"I just know that my body feels good. I feel healthy. I feel great. I'm ready to get back. I'm just ready to get going," [said Dunn.]

 

The good news for Dunn is that so many factors potentially contributed to his steep decline that addressing just one or two might get him close to his pre-2011 form. He's fully recovered from his appendectomy. He's adjusted to his role as the DH. He's adjusted to American League pitchers. He's already suffered the angst of his big contract.

 

And there's at least the history of Jim Thome's 2005 season, and his 2006 comeback, to give Dunn hope. Which is good, because he'll need it.

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QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 09:58 AM)
Real inspiring stuff. This guy had a chance to come out an address the worst season in history for the money he was paid and he casually talks about how he's hit a little and hasn't lost weight and he's fine and whatever....

 

Enjoy the boos Donkey.

 

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 09:59 AM)
Honestly, the articles on Dunn's off-season are not giving me much faith in him having a major rebound. Hasn't gotten in better shape, hasn't swung the bat much, and hasn't watched any tape of his terrible 2011 to determine if there are mechanical flaws that need correcting.

 

If I were Dunn, I would have spent the entire off-season trying figure what caused my problems in 2011 and done anything in my power correcting them. Sounds like the off-season getting over his embarrassment.

 

Seriously, these.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 25, 2012 -> 05:00 PM)
And if he would have said that stuff, all we would have heard was b****ing about it being seasonal fluff.

 

True.

I would have seen it as fluff. But I do want the guy to hit 45 bombs this season or more and be great. A repeat of last year would be so bad.

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I wish people would give him a break. Listening to the score and all the stupid comments. Give him a break from last year!! I hope Dunn and Paulie might

hit more home runs then Fielder & Cabrera this year!!!! He doesn't need to loose weight or anything. He had a rough year last year & it's time to be supportive as a

sox fan.

 

His 5 year old child was having 5 to 6 seizures a day last year. I found that out from a family friend during the off-season. The guy didn't say not

to say anything but I'm sick of all the Adam Dunn hate going on. He has told no media & probably nobody in the organization. He is

all about not making excuses & wearing it. His son is better now so hopefully he'll have a good year & all the haters can suck it.

 

 

Let's not let last years failures drag down this years success.

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QUOTE (soxfan-kwman @ Jan 28, 2012 -> 12:03 PM)
The Sox have to much class to say anything, wish more fans did.

 

So you want people to lay off of him for being the worst player ever in his first season with us because of something we had no idea even happened (and still don't)?

 

Get off your high horse and shut up.

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I think people who are Sox fans should lay off because he isn't going anywhere and booing will not help him figure it out. Just from a selfish standpoint, the Sox may be better if fans give him a clean slate for a new year just like RV plans to do. If there was something private going on that contributed to the issues last year, then all the more reason to treat him with human compassion.

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QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Jan 28, 2012 -> 12:59 PM)
I think people who are Sox fans should lay off because he isn't going anywhere and booing will not help him figure it out. Just from a selfish standpoint, the Sox may be better if fans give him a clean slate for a new year just like RV plans to do. If there was something private going on that contributed to the issues last year, then all the more reason to treat him with human compassion.

 

Agreed. Hopefully spring training reports will bring fans some positivity. I think Ozzie's mark on the team has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

 

This isn't life and death. It's baseball. And every year is its own thing. Player by player on this team has performed in the majors at some point in their career. Until they give me a reason to think they can't be a surprising team, I'm not going to bash guys. I'm just going to enjoy it because it's Sox baseball, and we'll see how the first couple months go, and go from there.

 

But if they start 8-19, then we have to push up that two month thing...

 

 

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 28, 2012 -> 07:06 PM)
That'd be great. Hopefully either that would put us in contention or give us a real shot to trade him.

 

 

I would not have been sorry to see Dunn, Peavy and Rios gone this off season. Maybe that is wrong on my end and way too critical,but it galls me to see so much money wasted in 2011. Now if these guys turn it around and I believe they all have pride and want to do good then that is a good thing for all of us. They are with the team and all you can ask for is effort and of course 40 homers plus from Dunn

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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 28, 2012 -> 02:34 PM)
I would not have been sorry to see Dunn, Peavy and Rios gone this off season. Maybe that is wrong on my end and way too critical,but it galls me to see so much money wasted in 2011. Now if these guys turn it around and I believe they all have pride and want to do good then that is a good thing for all of us. They are with the team and all you can ask for is effort and of course 40 homers plus from Dunn

ARGH.

 

STOP PRETENDING THEY COULD HAVE BEEN MOVED WITHOUT PAYING $100 MILLION THIS YEAR TO DO SO.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 28, 2012 -> 02:44 PM)
Keep your performers. Trade the non-performers. That's how you run a successful baseball operation.

Trade the performers for scraps to move money, use that money to buy out the contracts of the non-performers, pretend you're the marlins for 3 years.

 

That's how you get Dunn, Rios, and Peavy off the roster. Cut the payroll to $40 million this year total and it's easy to do.

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