Gio to Washington

[caulfield12]

The first thing you may notice about these guys is their age – this is a very young skillset, with the average age of a pitcher posting this kind of season being 25.3 years old. In fact, A.J. Burnett’s 2009 season is the only example of a pitcher older than 30 meeting this criteria. The type of result is often the product of an inexperienced pitcher still trying to find command of his stuff, and as he gets older, that command generally improves.

 

In fact, if you’re a Nationals fan, you have to be excited about some of the names that show up here – Kershaw, Lincecum, Johnson, Jimenez, and Gallardo all posted similar seasons at one point in their career before turning one some of the best starting pitchers around. This is clearly the upside that the Nationals believe they’re getting – if Gonzalez does improve his command slightly while retaining his ability to miss bats and get ground balls, he has the chance of becoming one of the best pitchers in the league.

 

However, with the exception of Jimenez, none of those guys had the same long track record of walking guys as Gonzalez does. He’s consistently run walk rates north of 10%, even dating back to the minor leagues. This isn’t a new problem for him, and one that he hasn’t shown any real signs of improving on, even as the rest of his game has gotten better.

 

So, while one could focus on the “what if” upside, it’s more practical to look at Gonzalez’s command problems as something that are going to stick with him, and ask how good Washington can expect him to be if what they’ve seen is what they’re going to get. That brings up a very different set of comparables – Burnett, Billingsley, Zambrano, Cabrera, Volquez, Sanchez, and de la Rosa. These are all good stuff guys who never really conquered their command problems, and had to rely on strikeouts and ground balls to overcome all the walks.

 

If we just look at the career numbers for those guys (minus Volquez and Cabrera, who haven’t thrown enough innings to really be all that helpful as comparisons yet), we see a group that is a bit above average overall, mixing some really good seasons with some less great seasons into an overall package that is good but not great. Overall, these guys have posted +97.5 WAR in just under 6,000 career innings, or a total of about +2.9 WAR per 180 innings pitched.

 

Interestingly, all of these guys are also generally perceived as “headcases” or “bad makeup guys”. Gonzalez has also been described that way, and his attitude is often cited as one of the reasons he’s now been traded four times in his career. I don’t know which way causation flows here – whether guys with command problems are judged to have mental issues because of their command problems, or whether guys with makeup issues are more prone to missing the strike zone regularly – but it is worth noting that this pitcher type is often seen as one of the more frustrating in the sport.

 

 

 

fangraphs.com

Edited December 27, 2011 by caulfield12

[JPN366]

It ain't "bad makeup" if that's an allusion to his character.

[Balta1701]

It ain't "bad makeup" if that's an allusion to his character.

Could mean that they are coming off as guys who are difficult to coach too.

[southsider2k5]

The first thing you may notice about these guys is their age – this is a very young skillset, with the average age of a pitcher posting this kind of season being 25.3 years old. In fact, A.J. Burnett’s 2009 season is the only example of a pitcher older than 30 meeting this criteria. The type of result is often the product of an inexperienced pitcher still trying to find command of his stuff, and as he gets older, that command generally improves.

 

In fact, if you’re a Nationals fan, you have to be excited about some of the names that show up here – Kershaw, Lincecum, Johnson, Jimenez, and Gallardo all posted similar seasons at one point in their career before turning one some of the best starting pitchers around. This is clearly the upside that the Nationals believe they’re getting – if Gonzalez does improve his command slightly while retaining his ability to miss bats and get ground balls, he has the chance of becoming one of the best pitchers in the league.

 

However, with the exception of Jimenez, none of those guys had the same long track record of walking guys as Gonzalez does. He’s consistently run walk rates north of 10%, even dating back to the minor leagues. This isn’t a new problem for him, and one that he hasn’t shown any real signs of improving on, even as the rest of his game has gotten better.

 

So, while one could focus on the “what if” upside, it’s more practical to look at Gonzalez’s command problems as something that are going to stick with him, and ask how good Washington can expect him to be if what they’ve seen is what they’re going to get. That brings up a very different set of comparables – Burnett, Billingsley, Zambrano, Cabrera, Volquez, Sanchez, and de la Rosa. These are all good stuff guys who never really conquered their command problems, and had to rely on strikeouts and ground balls to overcome all the walks.

 

If we just look at the career numbers for those guys (minus Volquez and Cabrera, who haven’t thrown enough innings to really be all that helpful as comparisons yet), we see a group that is a bit above average overall, mixing some really good seasons with some less great seasons into an overall package that is good but not great. Overall, these guys have posted +97.5 WAR in just under 6,000 career innings, or a total of about +2.9 WAR per 180 innings pitched.

 

Interestingly, all of these guys are also generally perceived as “headcases” or “bad makeup guys”. Gonzalez has also been described that way, and his attitude is often cited as one of the reasons he’s now been traded four times in his career. I don’t know which way causation flows here – whether guys with command problems are judged to have mental issues because of their command problems, or whether guys with makeup issues are more prone to missing the strike zone regularly – but it is worth noting that this pitcher type is often seen as one of the more frustrating in the sport.

 

 

 

fangraphs.com

 

Wasn't he kicked off of his HS team, or quit it, or something like that?

 

[iamshack]

Wasn't he kicked off of his HS team, or quit it, or something like that?

I think this was mostly attributed to his mother...she wanted his brother to play more or something...don't quote me, but there was some sort of ridiculous family member involved if I'm not mistaken...

[caulfield12]

I can't remember exactly, either he was suspended from the team or there was some ineligibility issue because of a transfer....something like that.

 

Would have to research it.

 

"I've known him since he was in high school in the Miami area. This is a guy I followed for years. I really like the way he competes," Rizzo said on a conference call. "I call him, in a good way, a sore loser."

 

Oakland gets four players in the deal: catcher Derek Norris, right-handers A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock, and left-hander Tommy Milone. The Nationals also received minor league right-hander Robert Gilliam, who went 12-7 with a 5.04 ERA and 156 strikeouts for Class-A Vancouver this year.

 

A's general manager Billy Beane said he nearly took another offer but in the end preferred the prospects Washington sent.

 

"I told everyone I spoke to, we'd leverage one team against the other," Beane said. "We were giving up a pitcher, and the ability to acquire three very good major league prospects who were pitchers swung it for us." More fodder for the anti-KW crowd on the Molina/Santos deal I guess.

 

The 26-year-old Gonzalez went 16-12 last season - a career high for wins - with a 3.12 ERA in 32 starts and was selected to his first All-Star game. He has reached 200 innings the past two seasons.

 

"He brings a presence in our rotation. He's had success. He's been a workhorse. He's very, very young," Rizzo said. "Gives us a young core of starting pitchers at the major league level that really is in the realm of something we've never had here before."

 

 

[Rowand44]

I think this was mostly attributed to his mother...she wanted his brother to play more or something...don't quote me, but there was some sort of ridiculous family member involved if I'm not mistaken...

You got it.

[southsider2k5]

I think this was mostly attributed to his mother...she wanted his brother to play more or something...don't quote me, but there was some sort of ridiculous family member involved if I'm not mistaken...

 

Well that kind of stuff could be symptomatic of a larger problem. I guess if he goes to Miami ever, we'll find out everything.