The Future Of the Rotation

[Jerksticks]

I know the following will be a bunch of "Ifs" but every team has them when looking forward. This is obviously a "If everything goes according to plan and potential" type of thread, so here we go:

 

The near-future starting rotation, and arguably the current rotation, is going to dominate this division for years like the old Braves IMO.

 

IF Sale translates his bullpen success to the rotation then we have him and Danks from the left side for the next 5 years. I'm curious if there is a better lefty tandem out there in other MLB rotations. Anybody know?

 

After Peavy leaves, Floyd and Humber will be our old guys at 29 and 30 years old. Floyd dropped his walk rate and WHIP significantly last year and if Humber takes ANOTHER step forward he might post a WHIP around 1 next year.

 

The wild card that could make us devastating is Nestor Molina. I don't buy any of the "pretty good stuff, maybe a #3 at best" projections we saw after the trade was made. If you look at older Blue Jay prospect reports before the trade was made, he's a future ace anywhere you read about him. Look at his WHIPs and walk totals. I love those 2 stats when projecting prospects. I've seen reports of him throwing a pretty hard ball as well. We might see a WHIP under 1 from this guy which IS ace. He doesn't walk guys, period...and he whiffs bats. But yea, his sample size is small, but I think management must see the diamond here if they let Santos go.

 

2013 Rotation with age and WHIP:

Danks 27 1.25

Sale 23 1.1

Humber 30 1.1

Floyd 29 1.2

Molina 24 1.0

 

If you add just 1 more young, quality arm (maybe we have him in Stewart or Santiago?) to replace either the aging Floyd and Humber then we are set for a very long time. We still have 3 quality prime years left in Floyd and Humber so there really is no rush. Danks might actually be the worst of the group and the most expensive, but by no means is he bad. There's always room for him to take that next step.

 

The offense is getting younger as well but that is another thread.

 

Point is: KW is flying way under the radar right now in my opinion. Nobody in the division can hold a candle to this future rotation...if it works. Hudson was a huge error but there was so much pressure to win now that I've come to terms with it; that pressure has done a 180 IMO. Molina was f***ing HUGE and I'm predicting a hard push by him to make the 25 out of ST.

Edited December 28, 2011 by Jerksticks

[Quin]

Cue Marty

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I stopped when you suggested Humber could or would put up a 1.00 WHIP next year. If any of you recall, it was me (and maybe J4L?) who were the ONLY two people who welcomed and thought he would be a decent pitcher for us, and I STILL am not that optimistic about Humber. I think he is due for a regression, and AT BEST, he repeats his very solid 2010 proformance.

[Quin]

I stopped when you suggested Humber could or would put up a 1.00 WHIP next year. If any of you recall, it was me (and maybe J4L?) who were the ONLY two people who welcomed and thought he would be a decent pitcher for us, and I STILL am not that optimistic about Humber. I think he is due for a regression, and AT BEST, he repeats his very solid 2010 proformance.

 

J4L notoriously thought Humber would provide maybe half a good inning at best.

 

Though honestly, his case made more sense then what really happened.

[witesoxfan]

I stopped when you suggested Humber could or would put up a 1.00 WHIP next year. If any of you recall, it was me (and maybe J4L?) who were the ONLY two people who welcomed and thought he would be a decent pitcher for us, and I STILL am not that optimistic about Humber. I think he is due for a regression, and AT BEST, he repeats his very solid 2010 proformance.

 

It was certainly not J4L, as he and I were pretty adamant and very wrong about Humber being nothing more than a AAAA guy. I'm still not sure exactly what he is, but I will bet that it's more likely he's a mid to back end of the rotation starter instead of a guy who is going to put up a WHIP of 1. He's got a long ways to go before he's even a sub 1.10 WHIP pitcher.

 

I also don't think of this as a rising powerhouse rotation. I think of Tampa Bay when I think of something like that, and even that's not exactly true.

 

There is a foundation for a rotation that can win a lot of ball games and make the Sox contenders, but they'll need other parts to function as well. Sale obviously has the greatest potential, but he may have the greatest risk for failure as well.

[Jerksticks]

It was certainly not J4L, as he and I were pretty adamant and very wrong about Humber being nothing more than a AAAA guy. I'm still not sure exactly what he is, but I will bet that it's more likely he's a mid to back end of the rotation starter instead of a guy who is going to put up a WHIP of 1. He's got a long ways to go before he's even a sub 1.10 WHIP pitcher.

 

I also don't think of this as a rising powerhouse rotation. I think of Tampa Bay when I think of something like that, and even that's not exactly true.

 

There is a foundation for a rotation that can win a lot of ball games and make the Sox contenders, but they'll need other parts to function as well. Sale obviously has the greatest potential, but he may have the greatest risk for failure as well.

 

 

I'm not saying all 5 guys are going to compete for CY Youngs, but 5 guys capable of posting 1.2 or better is not something the Tigers, Twins, Indians or Royals are even close to. I do think Nestor becomes our ace though.

[Jerksticks]

Oh, and DIRT cheap for a while. Once Peavy is off the books our rotation will cost like 20-25 Million for a few years. That leaves the rest to spend on an offense. It's not so bad looking forward...if Molina, Sale and Humber work out. I understand that's a big time IF but so is everything in this silly game we love more than our families.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

J4L notoriously thought Humber would provide maybe half a good inning at best.

 

Though honestly, his case made more sense then what really happened.

 

Oh yeah, you are right. I remember him either likening him to Lance Broadway, or saying we might as well sign Broadway too, or something of that nature. I can't remember who was agreeing with me, or maybe I was alone on that one.

Edited December 28, 2011 by JoeCoolMan24

[witesoxfan]

Oh, and DIRT cheap for a while. Once Peavy is off the books our rotation will cost like 20-25 Million for a few years. That leaves the rest to spend on an offense. It's not so bad looking forward...if Molina, Sale and Humber work out. I understand that's a big time IF but so is everything in this silly game we love more than our families.

 

That would be $20-25 million to spend on 20 other players, 6-7 of which will constitute a bullpen.

 

It's got upside, but I would gladly take Detroit's over the Sox. Verlander is a monster, Scherzer and Porcello are both solid pitchers, and Jacob Turner looks like he has a really good arm too. Fister's a good pitcher too, even if I don't really care for him much.

[hi8is]

I stopped when you suggested Humber could or would put up a 1.00 WHIP next year. If any of you recall, it was me (and maybe J4L?) who were the ONLY two people who welcomed and thought he would be a decent pitcher for us, and I STILL am not that optimistic about Humber. I think he is due for a regression, and AT BEST, he repeats his very solid 2010 proformance.

I think J4L or Milkman where not to up on Humber and actually really trashed him last year before the season started. Having him as a #5 was completely unacceptable to them if I recall correctly.

 

Giving Humber a chance last season and being optimistic about him was one thing I did call right last year.

Another was Thornton pissing the bed.

 

Beckham and Dunn where completely out of left field to me. I missed those two.

[hi8is]

Oh, and DIRT cheap for a while. Once Peavy is off the books our rotation will cost like 20-25 Million for a few years. That leaves the rest to spend on an offense. It's not so bad looking forward...if Molina, Sale and Humber work out. I understand that's a big time IF but so is everything in this silly game we love more than our families.

Thanks for the perspective - it gives me more hope than I was having over the past couple weeks.

I want Cespedes. Fu*k Rios.

 

Thou, I also agree with Detroit being in a better situation than us.

[caulfield12]

That's definitely the optimistic, glass half-full analogy.

 

Sure, it's possible.

 

By the way, we don't have Floyd for 3 more years, it's only 2. And the next sentence, you have him "aging" so you kind of contradict yourself.

 

Sale and Molina certainly are the two biggest keys for success in 2013 and beyond...but many would argue that any chance we have to compete THIS YEAR is predicated on Jake Peavy being a "near ace" once again.

 

There's just as good a chance that Humber pitches himself out of the rotation, Stewart ends up as a journeyman reliever and Molina is nothing like what he's hyped up to be by some.

 

Just have no way of knowing. And half this board has already predicted a Sale injury or simply the inability to get past August 15th this season, even if he's having a Cy Young caliber season and replicating the Ghost of Randy Johnsons Past.

 

Trade Floyd, and there are even more question marks, as has been diagnosed/dissected/analyzed in depth in other threads.

 

If you want to talk about AL dominant pitching staffs, you would have been in much better position to argue that coming out of 2008, 2005 or from 1998-2001 with Kip Wells/Buehrle/Biddle/Garland/Josh Fogg/Danny Wright/Rauch/Barcelo/Aaron Myette/Parque/Jason Stumm/Brian West, etc.

 

 

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

Poppycock. I've been a huge Phil Humber fan from day one. Somebody hacked into my account earlier this year.

[SoxAce]

If any of you recall, it was me (and maybe J4L?) who were the ONLY two people who welcomed and thought he would be a decent pitcher for us, and I STILL am not that optimistic about Humber.

 

It was Heads I believe. (although me and I believe shack or 2k5 were optimistic about him. Liked him as a prospect several years ago pre TJ.)

[Jerksticks]

That's definitely the optimistic, glass half-full analogy.

 

Sure, it's possible.

 

By the way, we don't have Floyd for 3 more years, it's only 2. And the next sentence, you have him "aging" so you kind of contradict yourself.

 

Sale and Molina certainly are the two biggest keys for success in 2013 and beyond...but many would argue that any chance we have to compete THIS YEAR is predicated on Jake Peavy being a "near ace" once again.

 

There's just as good a chance that Humber pitches himself out of the rotation, Stewart ends up as a journeyman reliever and Molina is nothing like what he's hyped up to be by some.

 

Just have no way of knowing. And half this board has already predicted a Sale injury or simply the inability to get past August 15th this season, even if he's having a Cy Young caliber season and replicating the Ghost of Randy Johnsons Past.

 

Trade Floyd, and there are even more question marks, as has been diagnosed/dissected/analyzed in depth in other threads.

 

If you want to talk about AL dominant pitching staffs, you would have been in much better position to argue that coming out of 2008, 2005 or from 1998-2001 with Kip Wells/Buehrle/Biddle/Garland/Josh Fogg/Danny Wright/Rauch/Barcelo/Aaron Myette/Parque/Jason Stumm/Brian West, etc.

 

I think we both subscribe to the idea that anything is possible.

 

If KW got his man in Molina and Sale's arm doesn't fly off, then we are set up quite nicely. We are going to have a ton of money to spend on offense. A ton.

 

Innings need to be built up this year on Sale, Humber and Molina's arms, and arguably Peavy's as well. The 2012 slogan should be "Gettin Experience".

 

And I don't buy into Scherzer and Porcello ever taking the next step. Too many guys gettin on base IMO. Pitching wise, I'd rather be us than them going into the future. But again, anything is possible.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Don't forget Axlerod.

[southsider2k5]

It was Heads I believe. (although me and I believe shack or 2k5 were optimistic about him. Liked him as a prospect several years ago pre TJ.)

 

I wouldn't even call it optimistic, I just wasn't ready to dismiss him sight unseen like many were.

[Balta1701]

Don't forget Axlerod.

He's in that "underwhelming" category where until he comes out and just seizes a starting spot and refuses to give it up, people are just going to keep expecting him to give it up.

[elrockinMT]

There are obviously a lot of "ifs" here, but I saw Humber pitch last year in Seattle against King Felix and he matched the Seattle super star pitcher all the way. Very impressive . I think he tired last season for bit, but came back strong. Anyway it will be interesting to say the least

[Fantl916]

I'm not buying the "dominant rotation" part, but I will say that kw has been adept recently at finding good starting pitching. IMO, if all works out we have a couple #2s (danks/sale/nestor) and a couple #3/4 types (Floyd/Humber/) with backend guys in Stewart/axelrod/etc. The prob with what we currently have is the timelines don't mesh. By the time Nestor is established in the bigs Floyd might be gone. Sale has talent for sure, but can it translate to being a starter (a lessor worry of mine) and can he stay healthy over 180+ innings (huge worry of mine with his delivery). Also it's gonna take sale until 2013 to pitch more than 160 innings ap in the immediate future you're looking at a hard innings cap.

 

Danks is already #2/3 and Floyd is an solid #3, but unless someone busts out above their rough expectation (depending on who and what ya read) this org lacks win now pitchers and lacks bigtime prospects for the coming years outside sale and Nestor which isn't a huge problem...

 

BUT...

 

If one of those two doesn't pan out this org will be hurting in the quality sp dept.

[bmags]

I'm not buying the "dominant rotation" part, but I will say that kw has been adept recently at finding good starting pitching. IMO, if all works out we have a couple #2s (danks/sale/nestor) and a couple #3/4 types (Floyd/Humber/) with backend guys in Stewart/axelrod/etc. The prob with what we currently have is the timelines don't mesh. By the time Nestor is established in the bigs Floyd might be gone. Sale has talent for sure, but can it translate to being a starter (a lessor worry of mine) and can he stay healthy over 180+ innings (huge worry of mine with his delivery). Also it's gonna take sale until 2013 to pitch more than 160 innings ap in the immediate future you're looking at a hard innings cap.

 

Danks is already #2/3 and Floyd is an solid #3, but unless someone busts out above their rough expectation (depending on who and what ya read) this org lacks win now pitchers and lacks bigtime prospects for the coming years outside sale and Nestor which isn't a huge problem...

 

BUT...

 

If one of those two doesn't pan out this org will be hurting in the quality sp dept.

 

Excellent post.

[Balta1701]

3 other things worth remembering, in terms of the long-term pitching staff.

 

1. Kenny Williams will probably trade for more pitching at some point. Who knows when.

 

2. Betcha we spend our first round pick this year on starting pitching.

 

3. Most importantly, Cooper was just extended. Which means we always have a shot at another diamond in the rough, recovery, Humber/Contreras/Loaiza style.

[DirtySox]

A powerhouse? Comparing the rotation to the Braves of the 90's? Really? Some hardcore Kool Aid drinking in here. While I definitely like certain pieces of the rotation, there are so many question marks at this point. Gavin might be traded, Humber might still be the back-end starter many people thought he was, Sale still has to replicate his bullpen success as a member of the rotation, and concluding Molina an ace after a mere 22 innings of AA pitching is ludicrous.

 

Sure the rotation could be great if everything goes right, but the same could be said about the majority of major league pitching staffs.

Edited December 28, 2011 by DirtySox

[Chicago White Sox]

I still think we need to move Floyd if we can get two quality SP prospects for him.

 

Right now, we have Danks & Sale under control for the next five years. That's two top to middle of the rotation starters right there. Humber is under control four more years. I know people aren't sure what to make of him yet, but I think he can be a solid #4 starter and worst case scenario a very strong #5. If those guys can meet those expectations, and obviously there are risks there, we'd still need one top of the rotation starter and one mid rotation starter.

 

I think Molina has the potential to become a #3 down the road, but expecting anything more that would be a stretch at this point. Petricka might have the stuff to become a #3 as well, but that's even less likely. Not sure if anyone in the system even has that kind of potential outside of maybe a 2011 draft pick (haven't researched them much) or Santiago (simply because he's a lefty). Right now, all our other SP prospects, including Stewart and Axelrod, project to be back of the rotation starters at best IMO.

 

Adding two more SP prospects for Floyd and focusing on pitching with our top couple picks in the next draft would go a long to help filling those remaining two spots.

[Balta1701]

I still think we need to move Floyd if we can get two quality SP prospects for him.

What realistic sign have you seen that this is even remotely possible right now?

 

If there were "2 quality SP prospects" available for anyone on our roster, other than maybe for Alexei, do you think we'd be moving on that?

 

If these offers were out there, we'd have taken them for Danks, for example.