Sickels - Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2012

[DirtySox]

1) Nestor Molina, RHP, Grade B+: Acquired from the Blue Jays for Sergio Santos, and immediately became Chicago's first or second-best prospect. I think he can remain a starter. Molina was a big topic of discussion earlier this month.

 

2) Addison Reed, RHP, Grade B+: The best closer prospect in baseball thanks to superior command of 93-97 MPH fastball and devastating slider. You can make a case to rank him ahead of Molina, if you think Molina will be a reliever.

 

3) Tyler Saladino, SS, Grade C+: 2010 seventh round pick out of Oral Roberts developed from draft sleeper into solid prospect. Good power for a middle infielder, and has some idea about the strike zone, scouts like his work ethic. Main issue now is if he can stick at shortstop, and I think he has a decent chance to do so.

 

4) Trayce Thompson, OF, Grade C+: Highest-ceiling bat in system, tapping into his power now and making good progress on defense. Kills lefties but has serious contact problems against right-handed pitching. Struck out 172 times while repeating Low-A. Has the tools to be a star slugger but also carries a high risk of failure.

 

5) Hector Santiago, LHP, Grade C+: Came out of nowhere to reach the majors (briefly) in 2011 thanks to development of a new screwball to go with 90-95 MPH fastball. Third pitch still needs work and it is unclear if he starts or relieves in the long run, although recent rumors indicate the Sox will continue to start him. Projects as number three/four starter if third pitch develops, or a power relief arm.

 

6) Jake Petricka, RHP, Grade C+: Power sinker in low-to-mid-90s, flashes a good breaking ball, changeup is mediocre. Awkward mechanics hamper his command and he's got an injury history. Like Santiago, sources outside the organization project him as a reliever but the Sox say he'll remain a starter. Considerable upside.

 

7) Kevan Smith, C, Grade C+: 23-year-old college senior from University of Pittsburgh destroyed Appy and Pioneer League pitching while showing better-than-expected defense. He was old for the levels, but he didn't play baseball full-time until 2010, having a football background, and he's shown surprising contact ability for a power hitter.

 

8) Dylan Axelrod, RHP, Grade C+: Picked off scrapheap after being released by the Padres, reached majors last year and has a chance to stay there as a fourth starter. Relies on sharp command of a nasty slider, average fastball and changeup.

 

9) Andre Rienzo, RHP, Grade C+: Live-armed right-hander from Brazil posts strong K/IP rates in A-ball but is still refining his command. Mid-rotation upside or possibly another power relief arm.

 

10) Erik Johnson, RHP, Grade C+: Big right-hander from University of California was drafted in second round. Could develop into mid-rotation workhorse if he shows better control than demonstrated in college.

 

11) Keenyn Walker, OF, Grade C: Extremely athletic supplemental first round pick from Central Arizona Junior College could be leadoff force with a strong glove. However, he's got serious contact problems, fanning 64 times in 162 at-bats in Low-A. High-risk/high-reward.

 

12) Jared Mitchell, OF, Grade C: Terribly disappointing season in High-A with massive strikeout problems. Upside that made him first-round pick in '09 is still here, but the serious '10 ankle injury set his progress as a hitter back severely. Still has a chance to develop but clock ticking is quite loudly.

 

13) Eduardo Escobar, SS, Grade C: Slick glove at shortstop got him to the majors, but weak on-base skills and below-average power will prevent him from starting for a first-division team.

 

14) Charlie Leesman, LHP, Grade C: Good sinker from the left side, but poor 113/83 K/BB in 152 innings in Double-A warns of command issues. Could be fourth starter if he throws strikes, but probably a relief arm in the future.

 

15) Gregory Infante, RHP, Grade C: Another bullpen candidate with a live arm, ready for significant trial in 2012 but will have to show better command to get a closing opportunity.

 

16) Nate Jones, RHP, Grade C: In the bullpen mix along with Infante. Performed well in Double-A and picked up 12 saves, but projects as middle reliever in the majors. Cross-body mechanics hamper command.

 

17) Jeff Soptic, RHP, Grade C: 2011 third-round pick from Johnson County Community College in Kansas can hit 100 MPH, but had only marginal success in college due to command problems and a below average slider.

 

18) Scott Snodgress, LHP, Grade C: Tall lefty with 90+ heat was mediocre at Stanford but more effective in the Pioneer League. Curveball and changeup have some promise. Could easily get into top 10 in this system next year.

 

19) Jose Quintana, LHP, Grade C: Recently signed as minor league free agent out of Yankees system after fine year n High-A. Throws strikes with 89-91 MPH fastball, solid curve and change.

 

20) Blair Walters, LHP, Grade C: 11th round pick from University of Hawaii relieved in college but moved to rotation in Pioneer League, showing 90+ fastball and better-than-expected slider. Like Snodgress, he could rank much higher next year once we get some full-season data.

 

OTHERS: Jon Bachanov, RHP, Chris Bassitt, RHP; Mike Blanke, C; Jordan Danks, OF; Mark Haddow, OF; Deunte Heath, RHP; Tyler Kuhn, UT; Jhan Marinez, RHP; Ozzie Martinez, SS; Rangel Ravelo, 3B; Marcus Semien, SS; Brandon Short OF; Juan Silverio, 3B; Andy Wilkins, 1B.

 

The horror. . .the horror.

 

We'll start with the good stuff first. Both Nestor Molina and Addison Reed are personal favorites. I have Molina one spot ahead because I think he can start. Of course, I think Reed could probably start too, but given how well he pitched last year I can understand their desire to keep him in the bullpen. He should be ready to close sometime in 2012, perhaps out of spring training.

 

There are some interesting pitchers after the top pair, especially future relief arms. Santiago, Petricka, and Axelrod would be bullpen candidate for many teams, but given the circumstances I understand using them as starters as long as possible. Axelrod could end up being a key component of the 2012 staff, and if he maintains momentum from '11 he could be a darkhorse rookie of the year guy.

 

Infante, Leesman, Jones, plus hard-throwing right-handers with command problems Jhan Marinez and Deunte Heath could all receive bullpen trials in '12. Johnson and Rienzo could develop into workhorse starters if they show sufficient command. The three lefties at the bottom of the list all have a shot to be useful, although it says a lot about the system that a minor league free agent like Quintana became one of their better prospects right of the bat.

 

Hitting is much thinner. I like Saladino but he's probably more of a solid role player than a long-term regular. Thompson has thunder in his bat, but his contact issues are frightening. I like Kevan Smith but we need to see him at higher levels. Toolsy outfielders Walker and Mitchell have huge holes in their swings. Andy Wilkins (platoon first baseman) and Jordan Danks (reserve outfielder) in the "other" section have a chance to be useful role players but neither will be starters.

 

No organization is completely empty and there are some interesting guys here, but overall the White Sox have well-earned their reputation as the weakest farm system in the game.

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/29/...spects-for-2012

 

 

 

Only two prospects with grades higher than a C+. Just awful.

[Balta1701]

No Zach Stewart?

[DirtySox]

No Zach Stewart?

 

No longer a prospect I believe.

[Chisoxfn]

Pretty awful that our 1st round pick from a year ago is not even in the top 10. Kind of scary. I do realize he's considered a "hit or miss" prospect but still. And no, I'm not writing him off. Just thought it was very interesting that a guy we invested a 1st round pick in isn't in the top 10.

[southsider2k5]

Pretty awful that our 1st round pick from a year ago is not even in the top 10. Kind of scary. I do realize he's considered a "hit or miss" prospect but still. And no, I'm not writing him off. Just thought it was very interesting that a guy we invested a 1st round pick in isn't in the top 10.

 

That injury to Mitchell really set him back. It will be interesting to see with a full year behind him if he finds another year or not.

[gatnom]

That injury to Mitchell really set him back. It will be interesting to see with a full year behind him if he finds another year or not.

 

I think he was talking about Walker.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

I think he was talking about Walker.

 

Ah. I took a year ago as 2010.

[gatnom]

Ah. I took a year ago as 2010.

 

You might be right... Walker technically wasn't a first round pick either.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

You might be right... Walker technically wasn't a first round pick either.

 

And Mitchell was drafted in 09 Don't mind me.

[DirtySox]

And Mitchell was drafted in 09 Don't mind me.

 

For what it's worth, a month or two ago I asked Kevin Goldstein if I should give up on Jared Mitchell yet, and he responded with an emphatic no. Seems to have heard some good things coming from instructs at the time. The clock is indeed ticking though.

[ILMOU]

A more accurate list than others I've seen.

 

Saladino, IMO, had been underrated by most of the others, while Mitchell, Walker, etc. tend to be overrated, perhaps by less informed observers going more on their draft position/one-time-ceiling.

[gatnom]

And Mitchell was drafted in 09 Don't mind me.

 

Oh yeah. Forgot about that Sale guy.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

I don't know why I read these lists. All they do is piss me off.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Blanke was kind of the wonder kid prospect for a year, but he thinks Smith has passed him by at Catcher.

[danman31]

Pretty awful that our 1st round pick from a year ago is not even in the top 10. Kind of scary. I do realize he's considered a "hit or miss" prospect but still. And no, I'm not writing him off. Just thought it was very interesting that a guy we invested a 1st round pick in isn't in the top 10.

At the same time he was a supplemental pick. I don't think those guys are as often locks to be in the top 10. Josh Phegley for example.

 

For what it's worth, a month or two ago I asked Kevin Goldstein if I should give up on Jared Mitchell yet, and he responded with an emphatic no. Seems to have heard some good things coming from instructs at the time. The clock is indeed ticking though.

I could see Mitchell exploding or I could see him continuing to struggle mightily. I'm kind of hoping for one or another. If he shows moderate progress we'll go into another year or wondering if he will get it going.

[caulfield12]

Still don't see how they can be worse than the Marlins if Marinez and Martinez were middle of the Top 10 picks before with that team.

 

Definitely 26-30....pending what moves occur with Floyd, Thornton and Quentin.

 

Santos Rodriguez and Jon Gilmore have completely disappeared into oblivion...but at least Lilly and Flowers can still give us something back.

 

 

[Springfield Soxfan]

I think Mitchell's days as a super prospect are long gone, you never hear any discussion about him at all in KW's long or short term plans. That ankle injury was devastating.

[caulfield12]

I think Mitchell's days as a super prospect are long gone, you never hear any discussion about him at all in KW's long or short term plans. That ankle injury was devastating.

 

This year is THE year (just like with Jake Peavy)...perhaps that was essentially the end of his career, but if that burst/explosion is gone, then yeah, he's not worth much to this organization. On the plus side, he did show a ton of pop and numerous extra base hits in the 2nd half of the seasons.

 

The strikeouts, clearly, were the biggest concern with Thompson/Walker/Mitchell, as to be expected with Trayce, not so much Walker and Mitchell.

Edited December 30, 2011 by caulfield12

[Rowand44]

Top 4 is exactly how I'd have it.

[DirtySox]

Still don't see how they can be worse than the Marlins if Marinez and Martinez were middle of the Top 10 picks before with that team.

 

Definitely 26-30....pending what moves occur with Floyd, Thornton and Quentin.

 

Santos Rodriguez and Jon Gilmore have completely disappeared into oblivion...but at least Lilly and Flowers can still give us something back.

 

Marinez and Martinez were middle of the Marlins top 10 prospects (depending on who you asked. They were 7th and 10th for Sickels) before both having down years. The stock of both have fallen.

Edited December 30, 2011 by DirtySox

[Soxfest]

Pretty awful that our 1st round pick from a year ago is not even in the top 10. Kind of scary. I do realize he's considered a "hit or miss" prospect but still. And no, I'm not writing him off. Just thought it was very interesting that a guy we invested a 1st round pick in isn't in the top 10.

I disliked the Walker and Mitchell picks both were pathectic reaches.

[Balta1701]

I disliked the Walker and Mitchell picks both were pathectic reaches.

You had a better idea for last year's sandwich round?

[justBLAZE]

If Reed is really the best closer prospect in baseball than, you can't really fault Kenny for the Santos trade.

[Balta1701]

If Reed is really the best closer prospect in baseball than, you can't really fault Kenny for the Santos trade.

I understand why you'd be open to trading him, but even if he's just a setup man on this squad, you need to get a stellar return to move him right now, and I still don't see us having gotten that.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I wonder where the two new guys obtained from the Padres will fall in Sickels' list?