Baseball America's Top 10 White Sox Prospects

elrockinMT · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 07:51 PM)

Yep. There will be job openings for sure. The Sox have shown they aren't shy about moving the kids they believe in.

they leave on a fast plane don't they

chw42 · January 11, 2012

lol Phil Rogers writes for BA now?

Chicago White Sox · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 01:20 PM)

lol Phil Rogers writes for BA now?

He's been doing the Sox list for years.

ChiliIrishHammock24 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 01:50 PM)

Jared Mitchell not even in top 10.....................pick looks wasted already!

His terrible injury did him in, not any bad scouting by the Sox.

striker · January 11, 2012

The problem I see with BA, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Intellect, etc. rating prospects is it's all opinion based. What the "experts" think. This list is what the "expert" Phil Rogers thinks. It's no different then CNN or FoxNews "analysts". These are people that know a little bit more than us.

What is lacking are measures. I use 2005 as just a base point, you could use any date.

Draft Capabilities

1. Of all the White Sox draft picks since 2005, how many are on major league rosters right now.

2. What is the total WAR of all of the White Sox draft picks since 2005.

Minor League Depth

1. Of all the players that played for the White Sox minor league affiliates, how many are on major league rosters right now.

2. Of all the players that came through the White Sox minor league system, what is their total WAR.

Major League Team Contribution

1. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage was drafted by the White Sox (Sale, Beckham, Morel, Reed, etc.)

2. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage were signed as minor league free agents (Humber)

3. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage were international free agents (Ramirez, Viciedo)

4. What were the total WAR for 1,2,3

These are measure that help you tell how successful a team drafts, scouts and produces talent. I still enjoy reading the "experts" opinions but they are exactly that, opinions. I prefer facts to measure performance.

ptatc · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (striker @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 01:57 PM)

The problem I see with BA, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Intellect, etc. rating prospects is it's all opinion based. What the "experts" think. This list is what the "expert" Phil Rogers thinks. It's no different then CNN or FoxNews "analysts". These are people that know a little bit more than us.

What is lacking are measures. I use 2005 as just a base point, you could use any date.

Draft Capabilities

1. Of all the White Sox draft picks since 2005, how many are on major league rosters right now.

2. What is the total WAR of all of the White Sox draft picks since 2005.

Minor League Depth

1. Of all the players that played for the White Sox minor league affiliates, how many are on major league rosters right now.

2. Of all the players that came through the White Sox minor league system, what is their total WAR.

Major League Team Contribution

1. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage was drafted by the White Sox (Sale, Beckham, Morel, Reed, etc.)

2. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage were signed as minor league free agents (Humber)

3. Of the White Sox roster, what percentage were international free agents (Ramirez, Viciedo)

4. What were the total WAR for 1,2,3

These are measure that help you tell how successful a team drafts, scouts and produces talent. I still enjoy reading the "experts" opinions but they are exactly that, opinions. I prefer facts to measure performance.

This is the only thing that matters. It doesn't matter how they were rated, where they drafted etc. How many of the draft picks are on MLB rosters. That is what makes a successful draft.

To rate a farm system you add the component of what players these drafted players helped to acquire, who then are on MLB rosters.

These two variables are will tell you how successful your farm system is.

gatnom · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 02:22 PM)

This is the only thing that matters. It doesn't matter how they were rated, where they drafted etc. How many of the draft picks are on MLB rosters. That is what makes a successful draft.

To rate a farm system you add the component of what players these drafted players helped to acquire, who then are on MLB rosters.

These two variables are will tell you how successful your farm system is.

Yeah, you're right. Albert Pujols and Nick Punto should be weighted evenly in terms of draft success.

Balta1701 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 03:39 PM)

Yeah, you're right. Albert Pujols and Nick Punto should be weighted evenly in terms of draft success.

If you want to weight things that way, then the next question is simply; playoff appearances and championships, because now you've taken the step of figuring out which guys to keep and what the appropriate value for the guys you don't keep is.

We've admittedly disappointed on this front...but other things, like a manager who doesn't quit on the team, also play into htat.

caulfield12 · January 11, 2012

If you really look at it closely, we're somewhere in the middle from 1995-2011 in terms of producing players on a major league roster.

Retroactively now, we have to get SOME credit for Michael Morse, at least identifying him and drafting him.

Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Hudson and Chris Sale all have the ability to be front-line starters, no worse than 3's in almost every MLB rotation. So when you go back and assess all these other organizations over the last 5 years, how many have done that?

Potential and actuality are 2 quite different things. Look at the Royals' list of first round draft picks for 20 years.

Yes, Borchard, Anderson, Fields...all those guys failing killed us, particularly Borchard, due to the pressing need for an impact LH bat, which led to trading for Thome and Swisher, which led to...

Not developing any elite minor league starters recently led to the ill-advised Hudson trade (although everyone here believed he was "CLOSE" to MLB ready, making that deal even more ironic).

We all know about Beckham...but that particular pick looked like one of the best in that draft until 2011.

And it wouldn't be shocking if Mitchell, Walker or Thompson...one of those 3 guys, at least, makes an impact. We always hear how the 2nd year back is the key indicator for injury comebacks. Let's just wait and see, no other choice.

You also have to look at our ability to find guys like Thornton, Jenks, Santos, Humber and DeAza. How many teams have picked up 4-5 pretty high impact players for virtually nothing over that five year period? It's almost like they had another 5 #1 draft picks, if you want to look at it that way. Then you have Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo.

Added on top of that is the impact Lillibridge made for us, and potentially Tyler Flowers.

IMO, if Viciedo and Sale (particularly mowing down AA/AAA as a starter) were still in our system, it would have to be ranked around 18-22.

We're still in bad shape in the DR and Venezuela, but it's not nearly as bleak as it was for most of 2010-11.

And there's this little issue of a lot of the talent in our system (outside of starting pitching) having nowhere to go...outside of the catching position, we COULD be set at every position for at least 2012 and 2013. It's the "where would they play?" argument.

At least with the bullpen shortage, there's a clear number of open spots (2 and possibly 3) and there should be a huge competition for them. It will be good to see players coming to ST with hunger and desire in their games again. Dunn/Peavy/Beckham/Rios all have a ton to prove, and the spotlight will be on Viciedo and Chris Sale as well to see exactly what they can produce.

Edited January 11, 2012 by caulfield12

LittleHurt05 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 12:50 PM)

Okay, Im sick a tired of posts like these.

Most people on this site who are advocating for a better farm system believe this:

The farm system should not really be judged on the quality of players coming out of it (though that is a factor into other areas), but for the talent it brings your MLB club, whether that's through trade, calling up prospects, etc.

If a team has an amazing farm system but they get traded for players that don't pan out or don't help the club then the farm system is useless.

Edit: So teams with stellar ranked farm systems only matter if they commit to keeping this talent around, and if they are aggressive enough to trade some prospect depth for impact players. Building a team only through the draft is hard as hell to do without subsequent moves (extensions, trades, FA signings, etc) but having a stellar farm system makes it infinitely easier to win consistently because it provides a buffer zone for mistakes (which every team makes).

I'm just sick of people treating good farm systems like WS championships. I understand the importance of a good farm system. s***ty minor leaguers have definitely hurt the Sox the last 5 years. But until those top prospects perform in the majors, that's all they are prospects. Everyone has been slurping on the Royals for the last few years, but until they can at least break .500 in the majors, I don't need to constantly hear about how great they are.

YASNY · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 02:57 PM)

And there's this little issue of a lot of the talent in our system (outside of starting pitching) having nowhere to go...outside of the catching position, we COULD be set at every position for at least 2012 and 2013. It's the "where would they play?" argument.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. Having guys play in AA or AAA for two years is exactly how the old Yankees of the 50's and 60's used to do it. Yes, I understand the sign-ability issues once you establish a pattern like that, but then again, you have to be smart in your approach. Fast tracking is not always the best for the player, eg Beckham. Sale, by being in the pen for a year and a half might be beneficial to him. He's learned on the major league level instead of the minors. Similar to Buerhle his first year. But there is no guarentee that letting them get a couple of years of AAA experience will work out, either.

bigruss · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 03:21 PM)

I'm just sick of people treating good farm systems like WS championships. I understand the importance of a good farm system. s***ty minor leaguers have definitely hurt the Sox the last 5 years. But until those top prospects perform in the majors, that's all they are prospects. Everyone has been slurping on the Royals for the last few years, but until they can at least break .500 in the majors, I don't need to constantly hear about how great they are.

I get that frustration, but I don't think anyone here has said that (at least someone who wasn't trying to fuel a stupid discussion just for the sake of it).

People slurp on the Royals, but that's moreso the individual players they have, not the team as a whole. Because if you follow baseball at all you would know the Royals are going to struggle with pitching for a few more years unless they sign or trade for guys.

And honestly, the people I see bringing up the Royals and Jays the most now are from posts like yours.

caulfield12 · January 11, 2012

Prime example, there was a lot of moaning and complaining when Aaron Miles was traded for Juan Uribe.

Many Sox followers actually had gotten to know Aaron personally (a little bit like the Chris Getz fans, Jeremy Reed, Anderson, Rowand and Crede, etc.) and were huge supporters of his because of their "rooting for him" to succeed and make it with the Sox.

You would have thought we'd traded away a future 7 time All-Star.

And yet Juan Uribe, after Jose Contreras, was probably one of the five or six most important components of our winning a World Series in 2005.

The point is...over time, there are always 2-3 players (Tyler Kuhn and Doyle more recently, CJ Retherford before, Maurice Gartrell, another AA/AAA outfielder whose name eludes me, Cook maybe?) who put up very good minor league numbers and yet have about a 3-5% chance to stick in the majors.

Having worked in minor league baseball, the allure of the purity of the game and the real connections you can make with some of your favorites...well, there's nothing like that experience at a big league ballpark. In the end, the minor leagues tend to get romanticized...this has never been KW's philosophy, it has always been 95% about the results with the big league club, with the ill-fated Hudson/E. Jackson trade being the most prominent example.

In the end, it's exciting for the fans to have something to look forward to in the future...and I remember even at my age being excited in 2009 just to listen to the Barons games when they had that incredible array of offensive firepower the first 2 months of the season.

But where are all those guys now? We know about Viciedo, Danks, Beckham, Allen and Flowers, but the reality is that most prospects bust somewhere along the way...or they go "poof" like Borchard/Anderson/Fields, even after experiencing some limited success (particularly in Josh's case).

In the end, finding young/projectable starting pitching seems to be the key...and they're going after that. But the dearth of impact position players in the system has been a concern for seemingly 15 years now. Part of the problem is that we were cut off from almost all of the DR and Venezuela for most of that time, so we lost out on a lot of talented ballplayers, particularly at the high skill positions such as middle infield and CF.

Edited January 11, 2012 by caulfield12

ptatc · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 02:39 PM)

Yeah, you're right. Albert Pujols and Nick Punto should be weighted evenly in terms of draft success.

If those were the only two prospects from respective organizations, I would say both were abysmal failures. If you produce only 1 MLB players it's pure luck not a good organization.

gatnom · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 04:21 PM)

If those were the only two prospects from respective organizations, I would say both were abysmal failures. If you produce only 1 MLB players it's pure luck not a good organization.

You're completely ignoring an entire dimension of evaluation. Is a farm system that produces 10 Nick Puntos better than a farm system that produces, say, 5 John Danks? Hell, I'd rather have 1 Albert Pujols than 10 Nick Puntos.

The ideal farm system would produce a large quantity of high quality players, not just one or the other.

caulfield12 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 05:45 PM)

You're completely ignoring an entire dimension of evaluation. Is a farm system that produces 10 Nick Puntos better than a farm system that produces, say, 5 John Danks? Hell, I'd rather have 1 Albert Pujols than 10 Nick Puntos.

The ideal farm system would produce a large quantity of high quality players, not just one or the other.

But who would win a fight between Pujols, Mike Ditka, 10 Nick Puntos and a hurricane?

(old SNL reference....Chris Farley)

Balta1701 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 05:45 PM)

You're completely ignoring an entire dimension of evaluation. Is a farm system that produces 10 Nick Puntos better than a farm system that produces, say, 5 John Danks? Hell, I'd rather have 1 Albert Pujols than 10 Nick Puntos.

The ideal farm system would produce a large quantity of high quality players, not just one or the other.

But if the 10 Nick Puntos were as highly regarded coming up as our own Nick Punto (Beckham), they could be the basis of a really strong farm system.

danman31 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 09:43 AM)

Also, I'm just waiting for FutureSox's

I can tell you one thing, Juan Silverio won't be in the top ten. What a joke.

Marty34 · January 11, 2012

Everyone would like more money to spend, but to me the biggest problem with the farm system is our amateur scouts don't know what a good hitter looks like.

danman31 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 05:33 PM)

Everyone would like more money to spend, but to me the biggest problem with the farm system is our amateur scouts don't know what a good hitter looks like.

Maybe, but they also haven't drafted them very highly for the most part. Sure there's Mitchell and Walker, but the Sox tend to draft more pitchers.

southsider2k5 · January 11, 2012

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 04:18 PM)

Prime example, there was a lot of moaning and complaining when Aaron Miles was traded for Juan Uribe.