Closing is Reed's goal

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...tm_medium=email

 

Closing is the goal for Reed

January 10, 2012, 11:01 pm

 

JJ STANKEVITZ

csnchicago.png

 

Okay, Addison Reed's first goal is to make the White Sox 25-man roster out of spring training. That shouldn't be a problem, unless he gets hurt or experiences some mysterious drop in velocity. Even if his handful of innings -- all relievers get in spring training -- aren't good, there isn't a ton of competition that has the body of work to vault over Reed for a spot on the major league roster.

 

So once he's on the team, Reed wants to close. That's not breaking news, although there's some good stuff in Scott Merkin's article detailing how Reed grew up idolizing Troy Percival and K-Rod as an Angels fan.

 

Throwing Reed right into the closing fire may be a little risky, but the guy did close out games for Stephen Strasburg at San Diego State and seems to have the right mental attitude for pressure situations in the ninth.* If the Sox don't go with Reed to start the season, instead opting to give him some time working in the seventh and eighth innings before allowing him to assume the closer role, though, Matt Thornton or Jesse Crain should fill the ninth inning just fine.

 

*For the record, Reed very well may encounter more high-leverage situations in the seventh or eighth innings. There may not be a discernable difference in performance between Reed/Crain/Thornton next year, so it's nothing to be up in arms about, but it's a reminder that saving your best reliever for the ninth inning often times isn't the best strategy. Why lose with Mike MacDougal on the mound instead of Bobby Jenks?

 

 

[thomas_35]

who's going to close then? Thornton? yeah, we've been down that road. and everyone was unsure what Santos was going to do given the opportunity and he did just fine. he never closed games before either! at least Reed has experience (albeit not MLB experience) as a closer.

 

[thomas_35]

and can you really trust a writer who has STANK in their last name?

[YASNY]

and can you really trust a writer who has STANK in their last name?

 

We once had a manager that had STANK in his last name.

[CyAcosta41]

who's going to close then? Thornton? yeah, we've been down that road. and everyone was unsure what Santos was going to do given the opportunity and he did just fine. he never closed games before either! at least Reed has experience (albeit not MLB experience) as a closer.

 

Bravo dude, bravo. Reed has tons more experience than Serge had when he stepped into that role -- both as a closer and as a pitcher generally. Doesn't mean that he'll be successful, but there is all sort of precedent for young pitchers making this jump and succeeding. Does he have the stuff? Check. Great stuff by any measure. Does he have the temperament and constitution? By all accounts, yes -- seems to be a very confident young man who grew up envisioning himself in this role and has succeeded with it at previous letters (closing for Stras, et al).

 

Should absolutely be a competition in S.T., but no way do you run scared of Reed because he hasn't done it before (NOBODY on our present roster has done it successfully before, and some of them have repeatedly tried and failed).

 

Baseball isn't that difficult. See ball, hit ball; get batters out. If you can do it, you can do it -- age, draft position don't mean squat once you hit the bigs.

 

 

[sunofgold]

Thornton should NOT be considered for the closer role. He just sucks at closing. Last year 3 saves, 4 blown saves. In his career, 20 saves and 25 blown saves. That is enough. He is fine as a set up man.

 

Has to be between Crain and Reed right now. Unless the White Sox sign another reliever.

 

[chw42]

Thornton should NOT be considered for the closer role. He just sucks at closing. Last year 3 saves, 4 blown saves. In his career, 20 saves and 25 blown saves. That is enough. He is fine as a set up man.

 

Has to be between Crain and Reed right now. Unless the White Sox sign another reliever.

 

Yeah, he was bad last year. But just so you know, his other blown saves mostly came as a setup man. That's not exactly fair to consider when evaluating him as a closer.

[Quin]

That's like saying Beckham's goal is hitting.

[Andrew]

I really hate Alex Rios.

 

I know this has nothing to do with anything....

 

I'm sorry.

 

Carry on.

[Balta1701]

Yeah, he was bad last year. But just so you know, his other blown saves mostly came as a setup man. That's not exactly fair to consider when evaluating him as a closer.

And then theres the whole "Juan Pierre tried to destroy Matt Thornton's career" part.

[southsider2k5]

Thornton should NOT be considered for the closer role. He just sucks at closing. Last year 3 saves, 4 blown saves. In his career, 20 saves and 25 blown saves. That is enough. He is fine as a set up man.

 

Has to be between Crain and Reed right now. Unless the White Sox sign another reliever.

 

I have decided based on this one post that you should not be considered as a good poster. It is enough. You are fine as a mediocre poster.

[sunofgold]

Yeah, he was bad last year. But just so you know, his other blown saves mostly came as a setup man. That's not exactly fair to consider when evaluating him as a closer.

 

That is true. However, if you are blowing saves as a setup man, why should I believe that you won't blow saves as a closer?

 

Actually, I take back my statement to see Crain as a closer candidate. His career stats for saves is even worse than Thornton. Wow, Addison Reed is our only real closer option.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

That is true. However, if you are blowing saves as a setup man, why should I believe that you won't blow saves as a closer?

 

Actually, I take back my statement to see Crain as a closer candidate. His career stats for saves is even worse than Thornton. Wow, Addison Reed is our only real closer option.

The most reliable setup man in the league might blow what, 3 games a year? You Put Rivera in the 8th inning and he'll still blow 2-3 games a year.

 

However, he won't get any opportunities to close. Thus, his blown save total will be 3, and his total chances will be maybe 4-5, thus he'll have blown 60% of his save opportunities.

 

This is the reason why you simply cannot use blown saves to evaluate a middle reliever. They get credited with a blown save if they lose the lead, but do not get credited with the save if someone else finishes the game.

[JohnCangelosi]

I really hate Alex Rios.

 

I know this has nothing to do with anything....

 

I'm sorry.

 

Carry on.

[Balta1701]

The most reliable setup man in the league might blow what, 3 games a year? You Put Rivera in the 8th inning and he'll still blow 2-3 games a year.

 

However, he won't get any opportunities to close. Thus, his blown save total will be 3, and his total chances will be maybe 4-5, thus he'll have blown 60% of his save opportunities.

 

This is the reason why you simply cannot use blown saves to evaluate a middle reliever. They get credited with a blown save if they lose the lead, but do not get credited with the save if someone else finishes the game.

I will give a more concrete example.

 

In 2003, Brad Lidge was a Setup Man for Billy Wagner. It was his first full season. He had 1 opportunity to actually close a game. He got that save.

 

However, that season, his save %age was 17%. He blew 5 saves. Those 5 blown saves were games where he came in to pitch the 7th or 8th inning with a lead of 3 runs or fewer (he pitched in 78 games that year, so he did that a lot) and he lost the lead for whatever reason.

 

17% was his save percentage.

 

The next year, he took over as closer. In 2004-2005, he saved 71 games, had an ERA of 2.05, and a save %age of 90%.

[southsider2k5]

That is true. However, if you are blowing saves as a setup man, why should I believe that you won't blow saves as a closer?

 

Actually, I take back my statement to see Crain as a closer candidate. His career stats for saves is even worse than Thornton. Wow, Addison Reed is our only real closer option.

 

Almost every closer is going to blow 3 to 4 saves a year, as is any real late inning set up guy.

 

If you blow a lead in the 8th you get the BS. If you hold a lead you don't get a save. The person who pitches the 9th gets the save. Therefore as a set up guy, it is going to look like you blow all of your save opportunities, because the reality is you don't get an opportunities to get an actual save in reality.

 

Thornton having 4 blown saves last year is pretty amazing honestly. That means he blew one lead late, the entire rest of the season, after leaving the closers role.

[Balta1701]

Thornton having 4 blown saves last year is pretty amazing honestly. That means he blew one lead late, the entire rest of the season, after leaving the closers role.

And what, at least 2 of those were directly, 100% caused by the existence of "Juan Pierre", right?

[flavum]

And what, at least 2 of those were directly, 100% caused by the existence of "Juan Pierre", right?

 

I wouldn't say 100%. Thornton did give up the pitch that was hit to the warning track that Pierre missed. Whatever the case, Thornton and Crain aren't closers. Reed should close until he proves he can't.

 

 

[Balta1701]

I wouldn't say 100%. Thornton did give up the pitch that was hit to the warning track that Pierre missed. Whatever the case, Thornton and Crain aren't closers. Reed should close until he proves he can't.

They're not closers but aside from the Juan Pierre debacle last year, neither of them have had the shot full time.

 

I wouldn't mind Reed, but I'm not going to complain strongly if one of the other 2 beats him out. You get 20 saves out of Jessie Crain in the first half and suddenly he's a much more valuable trade piece.