With Kuroda and Pineda to NYY, does EJ for 1-2 years

[caulfield12]

Oswalt, Garza, Floyd...those are the last 3 chips to fall, as it currently stands.

 

The reason I wrote that about Jackson is that the idea was being floated that many teams (Yankees) were looking at offering him only a 1-2 year deal and shying away from 3-4-5 years on Edwin.

 

As Balta noted, that probably fits our current mode of doing business...trying to stay competitive on the fly while buying time for Stewart/Molina/Castro and staying within hailing distance of first place at the Break. Enough to stave off a complete attendance fall off into the abyss for 2-3 years.

 

Sure, there's a large number of fans who disagree with this type of piecemeal approach, but KW's kind of stuck with it while he's still dealing with payroll consequences of Dunn/Rios/Peavy.

 

 

If the Red Sox were to acquire a rent-a-pitcher before the July 31 deadline, they likely would be picking from pending free agents -- and, just their luck, the pending class of free-agent pitchers projects to be deep. Any free agent-to-be whose team figures to be out of contention by July 31 could be a target. Among the names worth watching:

 

* Scott Baker, on whom the Twins hold a $9.5 million option for 2013;

* Joe Blanton, who was limited to just 41 1/3 innings by an elbow injury last season;

* Matt Cain, who could sign a contract extension with the Giants in the meantime;

* Jorge De La Rosa, who holds an $11 million player option for 2013;

* Gavin Floyd, on whom the White Sox hold a $9.5 million option for 2013;

* Zack Greinke, who has a limited no-trade clause in his contract;

* Cole Hamels, who won't be traded unless the Phillies absolutely collapse;

* Dan Haren, ditto for the Angels;

* Tim Hudson, on whom the Braves hold a $9 million team option for 2013;

* Colby Lewis, who still might be traded this winter if the Rangers sign Yu Darvish;

* Francisco Liriano, who posted a 5.09 ERA in 134 1/3 innings pitched last season;

* Shaun Marcum, who has a 3.59 ERA in close to 400 innings pitched in the last two seasons;

* Brandon McCarthy, who posted a 3.32 ERA in 25 starts last season;

* Anibal Sanchez, who has a 3.66 ERA in his last 80 starts over the last three seasons;

* Jake Westbrook, who had a 4.66 ERA for the Cardinals last season.

 

The Angels, the Brewers, the Cardinals and the Phillies -- among others -- figure to be in contention on July 31, making it unlikely they'll trade a starter. But the Athletics (McCarthy), the Twins (Baker and Liriano) and the White Sox (Floyd) all likely will be out of contention and open to moving pitchers for prospects during the season.

 

All the Red Sox really need to do is get to July with the pitching they have now. If they can get there and are willing to part with a top prospect or two, they might have enough pitching after all.

 

from providencejournal/blogs

 

 

 

Of all those guys, Blanton seems like the best "buy low" candidate to go after...since the likelihood of Jackson or Oswalt is pretty low, one would have to guess. They'll probably kick the tires on Hudson, Lewis and Westbrook as well, depending on their position in the division and minor league starting pitcher development timeframes/progress.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2012 by caulfield12

[Marty34]

Oswalt, Garza, Floyd...those are the last 3 chips to fall, as it currently stands.

 

The reason I wrote that about Jackson is that the idea was being floated that many teams (Yankees) were looking at offering him only a 1-2 year deal and shying away from 3-4-5 years on Edwin.

 

The White Sox are not going to deal with Scott Boras. The idea that maybe he's closer to being a White Sox because the Yankees are off the market is absurd.

[caulfield12]

The White Sox are not going to deal with Scott Boras. The idea that maybe he's closer to being a White Sox because the Yankees are off the market is absurd.

 

Which is more likely Marty, the White Sox trade Alexei Ramirez before Opening Day or sign Edwin Jackson on a one/two year contract with limited NTC?

[Marty34]

Which is more likely Marty, the White Sox trade Alexei Ramirez before Opening Day or sign Edwin Jackson on a one/two year contract with limited NTC?

 

 

What one has to do with the other is mystifying.

[caulfield12]

What one has to do with the other is mystifying.

 

 

You predicted/advocated a Ramirez trade.

 

You were right on Santos...also confident about the Ramirez move happening as well?

 

I'll state for the record that Jackson coming back is more likely than Ramirez being traded. An honorary bet. Probably neither will occur.

Edited January 15, 2012 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

What about trading Gavin Floyd and signing Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal for $8 million?

 

That would be basically revenue neutral...excise $9.5 million more for the 2013 budget and bring in another name pitcher to go with Peavy who could actually help boost or bolster attendance a bit.

 

He snaps back and they've got a VERY valuable trade chip at midseason who can be parlayed into additional prospects, with Castro/Stewart/Molina/Axelrod/Santiago joining the big league rotation at the time of the trade.

 

 

Edited January 16, 2012 by caulfield12

[hi8is]

What about trading Gavin Floyd and signing Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal for $8 million?

 

That would be basically revenue neutral...excise $9.5 million more for the 2013 budget and bring in another name pitcher to go with Peavy who could actually help boost or bolster attendance a bit.

 

He snaps back and they've got a VERY valuable trade chip at midseason who can be parlayed into additional prospects, with Castro/Stewart/Molina/Axelrod/Santiago joining the big league rotation at the time of the trade.

Makes a lot of sense indeed.

[Quin]

What about trading Gavin Floyd and signing Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal for $8 million?

 

That would be basically revenue neutral...excise $9.5 million more for the 2013 budget and bring in another name pitcher to go with Peavy who could actually help boost or bolster attendance a bit.

 

He snaps back and they've got a VERY valuable trade chip at midseason who can be parlayed into additional prospects, with Castro/Stewart/Molina/Axelrod/Santiago joining the big league rotation at the time of the trade.

 

I'm in favor of signing guys who need a bounce-back year to one year deals because as Caulfield said, they bolster attendance and we can trade them while I prospects develop. And I trust us much more getting other organizations spects (which we seem to do good in identifying problems with them, especially pitchers) then I trust the drafting scouts.

[bigruss]

As much as it makes sense to sign a FA pitcher on a 1 yr deal (resign or trade later for talent) while trading current talent (Floyd for spects) why would teams trade for Floyd while EJax or Oswalt are on the market??

 

I wish this was video game and we could make these moves but it isnt.

[caulfield12]

Because Oswalt could easily be a financial disaster for one season.

 

Floyd is likely to do what he's done for four years now...consistent, solid, #3 results...and some brilliant stretches followed by head-scratching ones.

 

 

Risk versus reward.

 

Same reason the Twins just signed J. Zumaya for $800K with another $900K in possible incentives.

 

Perhaps there's some pitching coach out there who has detected a flaw with Floyd and he thinks he's just an easy adjustment or two from being the same caliber of pitcher he was on a consistent basis in 2008.

 

Oswalt has all kinds of injury concerns, durability issues, wear and tear on that arm/elbow/shoulder....lots of teams are considering him for the pen, for that very reason.

 

 

[Balta1701]

What about trading Gavin Floyd and signing Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal for $8 million?

 

That would be basically revenue neutral...excise $9.5 million more for the 2013 budget and bring in another name pitcher to go with Peavy who could actually help boost or bolster attendance a bit.

 

He snaps back and they've got a VERY valuable trade chip at midseason who can be parlayed into additional prospects, with Castro/Stewart/Molina/Axelrod/Santiago joining the big league rotation at the time of the trade.

Again it's the same problem...if I'm boston, why would I want to give up enough prospect-wise to get Gavin Floyd when I can just sign Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt and also be able to keep nice precious prospects?

[Balta1701]

Perhaps there's some pitching coach out there who has detected a flaw with Floyd and he thinks he's just an easy adjustment or two from being the same caliber of pitcher he was on a consistent basis in 2008.

But unless you're Kenny Williams, you don't give up guys who project to be legit big leaguers on a "my pitching coach can fix this player" trades. especially when that player is already due $10 million over the next 2 years.

[caulfield12]

But unless you're Kenny Williams, you don't give up guys who project to be legit big leaguers on a "my pitching coach can fix this player" trades. especially when that player is already due $10 million over the next 2 years.

 

So basically, another GM who sees Gavin Floyd as Edwin Jackson and will give up their own version of Daniel Hudson.

 

LOL.

 

Those kind of trades don't often happen in the off-season...well, who knows, maybe. The Cubs might be asking way too much for Garza and they're unwilling to wait until JULY or take a chance on Oswalt breaking down.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Again it's the same problem...if I'm boston, why would I want to give up enough prospect-wise to get Gavin Floyd when I can just sign Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt and also be able to keep nice precious prospects?

That's why the only way something like this works is if you go out and sign Jackson first and then look into dealing Floyd. There would be two issues with such a series of moves. First, you may need to temporarily go over budget to pull it off. While there would be no real financial repercussions as long as you moved Floyd before you had to start paying him, I still don't see Reinsdorf giving Williams the ok to do this. Second, you'd lose some leverage in the Floyd talks, since teams would know we'd have to move a starter before opening day. I'd be fine with that, as I like Jackson more than Floyd and anything you could get for Floyd would simply be a bonus. If demand was right, you'd sill get a pretty decent package for him.

 

I really think there is some logic to the idea, I just don't think our organization has the balls to do what it takes to pull it off.

[Balta1701]

That's why the only way something like this works is if you go out and sign Jackson first and then look into dealing Floyd. There would be two issues with such a series of moves. First, you may need to temporarily go over budget to pull it off. While there would be no real financial repercussions as long as you moved Floyd before you had to start paying him, I still don't see Reinsdorf giving Williams the ok to do this. Second, you'd lose some leverage in the Floyd talks, since teams would know we'd have to move a starter before opening day. I'd be fine with that, as I like Jackson more than Floyd and anything you could get for Floyd would simply be a bonus. If demand was right, you'd sill get a pretty decent package for him.

 

I really think there is some logic to the idea, I just don't think our organization has the balls to do what it takes to pull it off.

Then you've got the other backwards problem...where everyone knows "This team will not keep both of these pitchers and they absolutely must trade 1 of them."

 

Thus, I don't need to offer a spectacular offer to get Gavin Floyd out of Chicago. They'd be in a position where they're choosing between taking the best available offer on Floyd or putting Sale or Humber in the bullpen and possibly screwing over another valuable asset.

 

I'd respond to the Sox doing that by cutting any offer I have on the table for Floyd in half.

[caulfield12]

Then what was the point for KW to have 6 starting pitchers heading into 2006?

 

At that point in time, it was marketed as having a huge competitive advantage over the rest of the league....

[Balta1701]

Then what was the point for KW to have 6 starting pitchers heading into 2006?

 

At that point in time, it was marketed as having a huge competitive advantage over the rest of the league....

Because the Sox were willing to put Brandon McCarthy in the bullpen for the full season if that was the best situation to win games.

 

Out of Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy, Humber, and Sale, there's no one where it makes good baseball sense to consign them to the bullpen. Danks obviously makes no sense with a shiny new extension. Jackson a 1 year, $8-10 million bullpen pitcher makes no sense, that's huge money for a reliever. Peavy is even more expensive, and if you move him to the pen, you lose any chance of saving money on him by moving him at the deadline. Floyd moving to the pen reduces the value in the very asset you're trying to trade.

 

Humber and Sale are the only 2 obvious bullpen candidates. You might do exactly that if you were "All in", but we're not. We're trying to recover from a failed all-in campaign, and that means we need to maximize the value we have in those guys, which means turning them into starters/keeping them starters.

 

Putting Sale in the bullpen was a huge competitive advantage for the pen last year, but it was a move that was not a good long-term move. Putting McCarthy in the pen in 06 was the same way.

[Marty34]

Because Oswalt could easily be a financial disaster for one season.

 

And you're advocating the Sox sign him?

 

[Eminor3rd]

Sox should not sign multi-year FA starters this year.

 

I would say that someone like Oswalt at $8m would make sense if we were a bit lower on payroll (to hope to move at the dealine/dupe casual fans into thinking the Sox are tryin to win), but if we're sitting at $110m already, it's probably not in the books, unfortunately.

Edited January 16, 2012 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

This is interesting:

 

Red Sox Would Have To Move Payroll For Oswalt

By Tim Dierkes [January 16 at 10:29am CST]

It's been a bizarro offseason, with the Marlins spending freely, the Angels winning a top free agent, and the Yankees and Red Sox exercising financial caution. The Red Sox would have to make a move to free up payroll in order to sign Roy Oswalt, reports WEEI's Rob Bradford, putting a deal in doubt.

 

The Red Sox have maintained dialogue with Oswalt's agent in recent days, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, who feels the team must fortify their rotation. Reportedly, Oswalt is looking for about $8MM guaranteed on a one-year deal

 

It would sort of imply that a Floyd trade would be preferable than an Oswalt signing, so long as the White Sox would be willing to pick up some of the cash. Though picking up cash hasn't been something the White Sox have been willing to do this year, it does mean they'd get back more prospect value in the deal. If this were the case, it then might be possible/make sense for the White Sox to sign Oswalt on a one-year after moving Floyd if they picked up say, only about half of Floyd's salary in the deal.

 

Oswalt would gladly take the deal, being that with NYY and BOS (and potentially TEX with a Darvish signing) out of the running, it may actually be his best chance to be pitching for a contender by the end of the year, either via deadline trade or in the unlikely event that the Sox would compete.

 

I don't know, stranger things have happened. It's probably more likely that Darvish signs with TEX this week and Oswalt panics and accepts a $4m deal with BOS or something. Thought I guess KW could approach Oswalt and tell him to hold his demands on BOS because he'll offer him $8m if he can move Floyd. Is that immoral? The business man in me says no, but I have no idea if that sort of thing ever happens.

[caulfield12]

And you're advocating the Sox sign him?

 

 

Yes.

 

I would prefer to trade Floyd now and have Oswalt on just a one year contract....and then deal him at the deadline as well.

 

I suppose the greatest argument against that is that we MIGHT be competitive in 2013 if Floyd's still around, but he's not the kind of pitcher to anchor a staff around and he's going to be blocking Stewart/Molina/Castro/Axelrod/Santiago eventually.

 

It's a pretty risk gamble for KW, though. Standing pat and keeping Floyd around is another form of gamble, because we're not getting a return on him compared to what we might be able to get back in trade for the future.

 

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

Yes.

 

I would prefer to trade Floyd now and have Oswalt on just a one year contract....and then deal him at the deadline as well.

 

I suppose the greatest argument against that is that we MIGHT be competitive in 2013 if Floyd's still around, but he's not the kind of pitcher to anchor a staff around and he's going to be blocking Stewart/Molina/Castro/Axelrod/Santiago eventually.

 

It's a pretty risk gamble for KW, though. Standing pat and keeping Floyd around is another form of gamble, because we're not getting a return on him compared to what we might be able to get back in trade for the future.

 

If I had the chance to swap Floyd with all his salary for something solid and grab Oswalt for $8m for a year, I'm all over it assuming my medical team think he can hit 150 IP this year. We're in a good position to eat the deficit in innings from Buerhle/Floyd with our veritable plethora of similarly-mediocre SP prospects. This will be a year where we get to look at a ton of guys, methinks.

[Marty34]

1.) Oswalt is a bad risk for the money when you consider the switch in leagues.

2.) Oswalt likely wants to go to a contender.

[Eminor3rd]

1.) Oswalt is a bad risk for the money when you consider the switch in leagues.

2.) Oswalt likely wants to go to a contender.

 

On a one-year deal, he's nearly guaranteed to move at the deadline if he's on a non-contender. So he'll be in the postseason anyway, assuming he doesn't get hurt.

[DirtySox]

If I had the chance to swap Floyd with all his salary for something solid and grab Oswalt for $8m for a year, I'm all over it assuming my medical team think he can hit 150 IP this year. We're in a good position to eat the deficit in innings from Buerhle/Floyd with our veritable plethora of similarly-mediocre SP prospects. This will be a year where we get to look at a ton of guys, methinks.

 

Yep. Could be a great move. I'm starting to think Floyd isn't going anywhere though.