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2012 Tennis Thread


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QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 12:31 PM)
Nadal probably doesn't have much longer on any surface outside of clay either. I'd give him 2 more years before Murray is clear 2nd best on all other surfaces unless a new person emerges.

 

 

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 12:51 PM)
That's the thing though. A new person usually does emerge. Murray will remain in the top tier for at least a few more years, but he's probably going to need an upset like Nadal at Wimbledon this year to get a good chance.

I can see Murray eventually losing form after repeatedly failing to win a Grand Slam. He's good enough defensively and has a good serve, so he'll stick around the top 10 as long as he stays healthy. But if someone does emerge, I hope it's Tsonga. Not that he would surprise anyone or "come out of nowhere" but he's pretty much the best of that second tier of players along with Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro, etc. I love watching him play and his exuberance is always welcomed on the court. If Raonic can develop his ground strokes some, he could be the next big riser.

 

Federer is back to #1 in the world, but the good news for Djokovic is that he doesn't have many points to defend after the US Open, while Federer does. So there's a good chance that Djokovic can finish the year at #1 again. I can't wait for the Olympics and then the US Open.

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The thing with Murray isn't consistency. Murray just doesn't have any weapons that really hurt these top 3 players. He can play rallies and maybe even outplayed Federer in the longer points, but Federer always had the forehand killers when needed. Murray plays consistent from the baseline and does enough with his serve to beat everyone else, but he needs something more.

 

As for that next tier, Del Potro would have been in the top tier if it wasn't for his injuries. The tennis he played to win that US Open (the only one of the last 30 not won by Fed, Nadal or Djok) was out of this world. He got hurt soon after and that was tough to see.

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Murray's first serve is pretty inconsistent which puts him at a disadvantage from the start. I wouldnt say Id pick Murray to out-rally any of the top 3 on a consistent basis either.

 

Just not going to win a lot of majors with a 56% 1st serve rate, especially as Murray's second serve was almost always a predictable kick serve (I dont even recall a slice). Murray really needs to become more consistent on his first serve and long rallies.

Edited by Soxbadger
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QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 10:19 PM)
Murray's first serve is pretty inconsistent which puts him at a disadvantage from the start. I wouldnt say Id pick Murray to out-rally any of the top 3 on a consistent basis either.

 

Just not going to win a lot of majors with a 56% 1st serve rate, especially as Murray's second serve was almost always a predictable kick serve (I dont even recall a slice). Murray really needs to become more consistent on his first serve and long rallies.

I didn't get a chance to watch today, but Murray is far better in long rallies than Federer, and he's quick enough and good enough defensively to hang with Nadal and Nole in long rallies. IMO, he's real weakness is the apprehensiveness on ground strokes. He can open it up with the best of them on occasion, but he's too predictable. No backhand down the line.

 

His serve in inconsistent, but he also has the ability to ramp it up a notch when he needs it. I don't know how many times I've seen him dig out of a 0-40 hole with a few great serves in a row. He's made it to 4 Grand Slam finals. At this point, it's more mental with him than anything. He just needs a bit of luck to get over the hump. He absolutely DISMANTLED Djokovic in the final in Dubai earlier this year. It's in him, he just can't put it all together in 5 sets. He was close against Djokovic in the AO semi this year too.

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QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 10:19 PM)
I wouldnt say Id pick Murray to out-rally any of the top 3 on a consistent basis either.

I didn't say that. I said he could rally with them, but he doesn't have a weapon to win points from a neutral point (a couple shots after a serve).

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QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 09:44 PM)
I can see Murray eventually losing form after repeatedly failing to win a Grand Slam. He's good enough defensively and has a good serve, so he'll stick around the top 10 as long as he stays healthy. But if someone does emerge, I hope it's Tsonga. Not that he would surprise anyone or "come out of nowhere" but he's pretty much the best of that second tier of players along with Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro, etc. I love watching him play and his exuberance is always welcomed on the court. If Raonic can develop his ground strokes some, he could be the next big riser.

 

Federer is back to #1 in the world, but the good news for Djokovic is that he doesn't have many points to defend after the US Open, while Federer does. So there's a good chance that Djokovic can finish the year at #1 again. I can't wait for the Olympics and then the US Open.

 

I could be wrong but isn't Tsonga actually older than Murray? I remember 2-3 years back he absolutely destroyed Nadal in I want to say in the semifinals of the Australian Open and I thought he was next best thing... but he doesn't seem to have the it factor to hang with the top4.

 

I say top4 because outside of Open finals, Murray can beat the other 3.

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QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Jul 8, 2012 -> 10:56 PM)
I didn't get a chance to watch today, but Murray is far better in long rallies than Federer, and he's quick enough and good enough defensively to hang with Nadal and Nole in long rallies. IMO, he's real weakness is the apprehensiveness on ground strokes. He can open it up with the best of them on occasion, but he's too predictable. No backhand down the line.

 

His serve in inconsistent, but he also has the ability to ramp it up a notch when he needs it. I don't know how many times I've seen him dig out of a 0-40 hole with a few great serves in a row. He's made it to 4 Grand Slam finals. At this point, it's more mental with him than anything. He just needs a bit of luck to get over the hump. He absolutely DISMANTLED Djokovic in the final in Dubai earlier this year. It's in him, he just can't put it all together in 5 sets. He was close against Djokovic in the AO semi this year too.

 

I believe that Federer won 55% of the points that went over 9 strokes. Apprehensiveness is inconsistency, the difference between a Nadal/Djok from the baseline is that they believe in their stroke and hit it with full authority almost every time. Murray does not have the same belief, he plays conservative ground strokes to ensure that he stays in the point.

 

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-T...10&oId=F324

 

The big difference though is first serve and really what will hinder Murray. It doesnt matter if he can hit 3 aces in a row, what matters is long term consistency on the first serve. Yesterday Federer was 90/131 on first serves (68%) and won 75%. Murray was 88/157 (56%) and won 69%. The hidden number is the 131 vs 157 first serves, which means Murray had to work over 25 points harder on his serve than Federer. Even worse, Murray needed to use 69 second serves, compared to Federer's 41. It is important because neither won more than 50% on their second serve. The problem for Murray is that its really hard to beat an opponent who is +10% on first serve.

 

The margin for error is very low in this matches. It is the little things like Murray's break points converted and break points saved. Each of those points may turn on whether a 1st serve goes in or out.

 

You mention that he dismantled Djokovic, but he lost to Federer in the same tournament. Im trying to get the stats of the Djokovic match, but I would bet he had a much better serve.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/tennis/stor...nals/53331604/1

 

That article states he won 94% of his first serve points. If he needs that type of performance to beat Nadal/Djok, dont expect it to happen often.

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QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jul 10, 2012 -> 12:50 AM)
LOL.

 

Hey good to see our girl Radwanska at least put up a solid fight btw.

 

Yeah, cold or not, she would have had a tough time beating Serena, but still forced a 3rd set. Heck of a tournament and up to #2 in the world.

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  • 1 month later...
QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Sep 10, 2012 -> 09:35 PM)
Wow, a different champ at each Open kind of cool.....Glad Murray ended the season strong with the Olympics and US Open win... Hopefully next year Nadal is completely healthy and we can get some great matches.

I definitely missed having Nadal out there for the last couple months.

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  • 8 months later...

Nadal cruises to the French Title. Not interested in Ferrer. Too bad the Djok match wasn't the final.

 

Serena dominated the women's again. She's a freak athlete but I can't stand her. Just unlikable to me.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 9, 2013 -> 11:44 AM)
Nadal is great for the sport. I always root against him but has anyone been involved in more epic matches than he?

 

A lot of people hate him because he is a grinder while djoker and Federer are more aggressive going for winners all the time but I do love Nadal. I feel like he is the role model for everyone that if you try your hardest every point you can accomplish great things.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 9, 2013 -> 09:29 PM)
So why exactly is Nadal so good on clay? Or Federer on grass? I don't really get the specifics as to why certain players play better on certain surfaces.

 

Why do some batters hit other pitchers better? You move and slide more on clay, the ball bounces different, it's just different and other players use that to their advantage.

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QUOTE (Brian @ Jun 10, 2013 -> 05:42 AM)
Why do some batters hit other pitchers better? You move and slide more on clay, the ball bounces different, it's just different and other players use that to their advantage.

 

What a crap answer, clay gives grinders like Nadal an advantage because the ball isn't as fast on that surface and how it allows you to have more range. The US and Australian open play more towards guys like Djokovic because it is a much faster surface and they are always going for line drive hits down the lines.

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QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Jun 10, 2013 -> 07:09 AM)
What a crap answer, clay gives grinders like Nadal an advantage because the ball isn't as fast on that surface and how it allows you to have more range. The US and Australian open play more towards guys like Djokovic because it is a much faster surface and they are always going for line drive hits down the lines.

 

Thanks for calling my answer crap and than giving the same answer with different words.

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