Official 2011-2012 NFL Thread

[iamshack]

The rule changes have really helped the passing attacks as well.

 

I wonder how much the performances we're seeing out of a guy like Alex Smith would be similar to how a quarterback "managing the game" would be performing under this rule structure?

[ptatc]

The league has all but assured we won't see a defense like that for some time. Everything is geared towards offense.

 

 

 

And you're only going by SB winners. How about the runner ups? Obviously, you can throw out the '06 Bears. That offense blew outside of Thomas Jones. The '07 Pats scored the most points in NFL history. The '08 Cardinals featured Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin. The '09 Colts - Manning. Big Ben probably goes for 4000+ yards last year, as he did the season before, if not for the suspension. We could have as many as 10 QBs this year throw for 4,000+ yards. Ten years ago you might've gotten five that reached or surpassed those numbers. I'm not saying it's required to have an elite passing attack to get to or win the SB. But the days of scrubs like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson aka "just don't throw an interception and you're fine" are over.

It has nothing to do with the offenses or elite quarterbacks. It has everything to do with the constant rule changes to favor the offenses. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson wouldn't be the"scrubs" as you call them today. If they and their receivers didn't have to worry about being hit like the games today they would look a lot better.

 

Football wants to add HGH testing so they can shrink the players and make it a flag football league. soon they will add rules to make it more like arena football with a bunch of guy running around everywhere on offense and no defense whatsoever.

[MurcieOne]

I'd imagine he'd be available for something >> what the Bears gave up for Cutler. Pair of first, pair of seconds, and some filler.

 

I think I'd take Cooper or Archie Manning over the guys we currently have on the roster.

[Soxbadger]

One of the most important rule changes has actually hurt the passing attack, defensive backs can now push a receiver out of bounds and it does not count as a catch.

 

Once again, some one stated that over the last 10 years the league has drastically changed, all I did was go back the last 5 years and see if that turned out to be true. When I looked at the winners, it was not true, offense has not dominated. I havent looked at the numbers, but my guess is that in the 90's (Dallas dynasty, Packers and 49ers) more teams who had top 5 offenses won Super Bowls than in the last 5 years.

 

That being said, lets look at the original comment, and I will bold the important:

 

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl.

 

Alex Smith isnt that bad, and if you have watched him play this season he has done considerably better. His Qb rating is 91.1 and his TD to INT is 16:5.

 

Now lets break down the tape.

 

1) Dilfer won a Super Bowl (Fact)

 

2) Alex Smith isnt as bad as Dilfer.

 

3) Alex Smith actually has a top 10 QB rating this year.

 

Therefore its possible Alex Smith could win a Super Bowl.

 

Its not about whether Dilfer could win in todays game, its about whether Smith can win. And right now Smith is putting up a top 10 Qb rating his first year in Harbaugh's system with young receivers. There is a chance he can get better. So to say the 49ers wont win because of Alex Smith, is kind of silly.

 

You are aware Trent Dilfer had a 76.6 QB rating that year, 15 points below Alex Smith. His TD/INT was 12/11 (in 12 games) and averaged 136.5 yards per game (Smith is at 197).

 

Its just not comparable as Smith is putting up significantly better numbers. Even Eli Manning only had a 76 Qb rating the year the Giants won the Super Bowl (23 td to 20 ints)

[iamshack]

It has nothing to do with the offenses or elite quarterbacks. It has everything to do with the constant rule changes to favor the offenses. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson wouldn't be the"scrubs" as you call them today. If they and their receivers didn't have to worry about being hit like the games today they would look a lot better.

 

Football wants to add HGH testing so they can shrink the players and make it a flag football league. soon they will add rules to make it more like arena football with a bunch of guy running around everywhere on offense and no defense whatsoever.

Well, part of this is because retired football players are starting to show massive brain damage from the blows to the head they have absorbed over their careers...

 

But I agree, the rule changes have definitely advanced things for the offenses recently, and that has elevated the play of relatively pedestrian quarterbacks like Alex Smith, who otherwise, would probably look more like Brad Johnson and Trent Dildo. It doesn't hurt that the average fan enjoys high-scoring games more than defensive battles anyway.

[Soxbadger]

The rule changes have really helped the passing attacks as well.

 

I wonder how much the performances we're seeing out of a guy like Alex Smith would be similar to how a quarterback "managing the game" would be performing under this rule structure?

 

Well lets put it in comparison with other QB stats of the day.

 

In 2000 Dilfer had a Qb rating of 76.6 which was 20th overall. 7 Qbs had a rating above 90, 2 of those 7 had ratings above 100.

 

In 2011 Smith had a Qb rating of 91.1 which was 9th overall. 10 Qbs have a rating above 90, 4 of those 10 had ratings above 100.

 

Trent Dilfer would rate as the 25th overall QB by rating in 2011.

 

So while QB play has gotten better, Smith is still significantly better than Dilfer when compared to his peers.

[iamshack]

Well lets put it in comparison with other QB stats of the day.

 

In 2000 Dilfer had a Qb rating of 76.6 which was 20th overall. 7 Qbs had a rating above 90, 2 of those 7 had ratings above 100.

 

In 2011 Smith had a Qb rating of 91.1 which was 9th overall. 10 Qbs have a rating above 90, 4 of those 10 had ratings above 100.

 

Trent Dilfer would rate as the 25th overall QB by rating in 2011.

 

So while QB play has gotten better, Smith is still significantly better than Dilfer when compared to his peers.

The ratings themselves are useless. When the ratings are based on actual play, that is affected by rule changes, that is exactly what we're talking about. What is a better indicator is how he measures up next to his peers, which, when considering how many rookie QB's are playing this year, is pretty solid evidence that the rule changes have made life as a qb much easier in 2011.

[Soxbadger]

The stats support that QB play has increased. According to the stats, Dilfer was a bottom half QB, Smith is a top half QB.

 

That is how they match up to their peers.

 

Furthermore, you cant just say its "rule changes", the game has also considerably changed. 10 years ago I cant remember many teams running no huddle hurry up offense throughout the entire game, I dont recall as many receiving TE"s, I dont recall teams using as many 5 wr sets. More offenses were built on a traditional run game, with less teams airing out the ball.

 

Im going to guess that there were significantly less passes thrown in 2000 than in 2011.

 

(goes to check)

 

In 2000 there were 16322 passes attempted (32.9 per game) compared to 13677 rushes (27.6).

 

In 2011 (through 15 games) there have been 15195 passes attempted (33.9 per game) to 12212 rushes (27.3)

 

So based on that, Id say it may not be statistically significant the attempts.

 

Lets look at QB rating by year:

 

2000- league average was 76.2

 

2011- league average is 82.4

 

So all things being considered it appears that there has been roughly a 6 point bump in QB rating since 2000 (this compares favorably to the previous stats of how many Qbs had over 90 rating and over 100.)

 

Which still supports Smith is better this season than Dilfer. That being said, there also has been an increase in Qb rating, while there has not been a drastic increase in passing attempts. Suggests that there are more completions/tds.

 

 

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

It has nothing to do with the offenses or elite quarterbacks. It has everything to do with the constant rule changes to favor the offenses. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson wouldn't be the"scrubs" as you call them today. If they and their receivers didn't have to worry about being hit like the games today they would look a lot better.

 

Football wants to add HGH testing so they can shrink the players and make it a flag football league. soon they will add rules to make it more like arena football with a bunch of guy running around everywhere on offense and no defense whatsoever.

 

Well, let's not get ridiculous now. The rules changes, as I've stated 575783474 times, have enhanced offense, in particular the passing game, to new levels never seen previously. But you can't just put any so-so QB back there and expect to flourish. Trent Dilfer was garbage. He'd be garbage in any era. In the NBA, they've banished hand-checking, which caters to athletic guards/wings. That doesn't mean you put Reggie Theus in today's NBA and he'd be an all-star. In today's NFL, you more than ever need 6.3 ish, freakishly athletic receivers and mammoth, athletic lineman, specifically left tackles, that compliment the QB. The Bears, for example, come up way short in these areas. And it sucks for Cutler. He was playing his best football as a Bear before he got hurt. Personally, I don't think it would've lasted. Management has failed miserably at surrounding their franchise QB with the necessary pieces to go to war with the likes of the Packers and Saints.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Jordan4life

[iamshack]

The stats support that QB play has increased. According to the stats, Dilfer was a bottom half QB, Smith is a top half QB.

That is how they match up to their peers.

 

Furthermore, you cant just say its "rule changes", the game has also considerably changed. 10 years ago I cant remember many teams running no huddle hurry up offense throughout the entire game, I dont recall as many receiving TE"s, I dont recall teams using as many 5 wr sets. More offenses were built on a traditional run game, with less teams airing out the ball.

 

Im going to guess that there were significantly less passes thrown in 2000 than in 2011.

 

(goes to check)

 

In 2000 there were 16322 passes attempted (32.9 per game) compared to 13677 rushes (27.6).

 

In 2011 (through 15 games) there have been 15195 passes attempted (33.9 per game) to 12212 rushes (27.3)

 

So based on that, Id say it may not be statistically significant the attempts.

 

Lets look at QB rating by year:

 

2000- league average was 76.2

 

2011- league average is 82.4

 

So all things being considered it appears that there has been roughly a 6 point bump in QB rating since 2000 (this compares favorably to the previous stats of how many Qbs had over 90 rating and over 100.)

 

Which still supports Smith is better this season than Dilfer. That being said, there also has been an increase in Qb rating, while there has not been a drastic increase in passing attempts. Suggests that there are more completions/tds.

I'm confused. Where are you getting the assumption that Dilfer and Smith are equal? Smith has a 91 rating while Dilfer had a 76 rating. Of course Smith is in the top half while Dilfer was in the bottom half.

 

What I am arguing is that if Dilfer were to play in 2011 he would probably have a higher rating due to the rule changes, while if Smith played in 2000, he would have a lower rating.

 

You're arguing as though you're beginning with the assumption that they are equal though, which is where you are losing me...

[RockRaines]

Yes but Shack's point is that rules changes have helped it be easier for QB's for the most part which has "changed" the game. The no contact rule after 5 yards was HUGE, and really helped shape TE's what they are today. You also cant deliver the hits to the WR's and QB's like you used to so the premier players are staying in the game for longer periods of time.

 

I was always wondering when we would have more running QB's in the NFL and it may be happening with QB's getting bigger and faster.

[Soxbadger]

I agree, I thought you were suggesting that Smith and Dilfer would be equal if they played in the others era. And I was trying to show that is unlikely, that Smith would still be better.

[SOXOBAMA]

49ers have some of the best young talent in the game today with Willis, Aldon Smith and several other stars..

 

I think Kyle Williams will be a big star in the NFL..

Edited December 21, 2011 by SOXOBAMA

[LittleHurt05]

49ers have some of the best young talent in the game today with Willis, Aldon Smith and several other stars..

 

I think Kyle Williams will be a big star in the NFL..

 

 

Since when did Kenny Williams get an account on Soxtalk?

[SOXOBAMA]

My NFL playoff predictions

 

NFC

 

#3 Saints 35 over #6 Lions 21

#5 Falcons 28 over #4 Cowboys 20

 

#1 Packers 38 over #5 Falcons 27

#2 49ers 21 over #3 Saints 17

 

#1 Packers 24 over #2 49ers 13 ( hope I am wrong on this one)

 

AFC

 

# 3 Texans 28 over # 6 Jets 24

# 5 Steelers 31 over # 4 Broncos 10

 

#1 Pats 27 over # 5 Steelers 17

# 2 Ravens 17 over #3 Texans 14

 

#2 Ravens 23 over #1 Pats 21

 

Super Bowl

 

Ravens 31 over Packers 27

 

 

[MexSoxFan#1]

Per Grantland on their "The Fabulous and the Flops of the NFL week 15"...

 

Flop: Caleb Hanie, who serves as another example of why you can't take one quarter of action very seriously. In last year's playoffs, Hanie came in after Jay Cutler got hurt and Todd Collins 0 for 4 performance basically signed the death warrant on his own career. The Bears took Hanie's play as a sign that he was ready to be Jay Cutler's primary backup, and while he was an upgrade over the atrocious Collins, he's not an NFL quarterback. After his latest start, Hanie's thrown 102 passes and completed 51 of them, for a completion percentage at an even 50 percent. He's thrown nine interceptions, producing an interception rate of 8.8 percent. Nobody has thrown interceptions that frequently over 100 or more pass attempts in 23 years! Steve Grogan narrowly beat it out in 1988. After you adjust for the era Hanie plays in, pro-football-reference.com suggests that Hanie's been worse at avoiding picks than anybody in NFL history since the merger. Hanie's also been sacked on a whopping 14.5 percent of his dropbacks. PFR suggests that only three players since the merger, after adjusting for era, have gone down more frequently. Bottom line: Caleb Hanie might be the worst quarterback to throw 100 passes since the AFL merged with the NFL. If Chicago's backup had merely been below average, their defense would likely have been enough to get them into the playoffs. Instead, they will spend their January on the finest golf courses in America.

 

Leave it to the Bears to have a historically bad QB, according to this article, Jonathan Quinn>Caleb Hanie lol

[iamshack]

Per Grantland on their "The Fabulous and the Flops of the NFL week 15"...

 

 

 

Leave it to the Bears to have a historically bad QB, according to this article, Jonathan Quinn>Caleb Hanie lol

And now we get to watch McCown on Sunday night!

[MexSoxFan#1]

And now we get to watch McCown on Sunday night!

No we don't!

NFL season is over for me, I'm watching the Bulls/Lakers and the other NBA games that day...

Edited December 21, 2011 by MexSoxFan#1

[ptatc]

Well, part of this is because retired football players are starting to show massive brain damage from the blows to the head they have absorbed over their careers...

But I agree, the rule changes have definitely advanced things for the offenses recently, and that has elevated the play of relatively pedestrian quarterbacks like Alex Smith, who otherwise, would probably look more like Brad Johnson and Trent Dildo. It doesn't hurt that the average fan enjoys high-scoring games more than defensive battles anyway.

Some of that won't change. football is a sport where there are purposeful collisions. quarterbacks are not typically the ones you see with these symptoms. You do now becuase of the prevalence of the artificial surfaces.

However, a factor that people don't talk about because it isn't as populr of a topic is that much of that brain damage can be link to steriod use as well. This is where the media misses the boat. Steriod use is as big a factor as the concussions for brain damage.

[ptatc]

The stats support that QB play has increased. According to the stats, Dilfer was a bottom half QB, Smith is a top half QB.

 

That is how they match up to their peers.

 

Furthermore, you cant just say its "rule changes", the game has also considerably changed. 10 years ago I cant remember many teams running no huddle hurry up offense throughout the entire game, I dont recall as many receiving TE"s, I dont recall teams using as many 5 wr sets. More offenses were built on a traditional run game, with less teams airing out the ball.Im going to guess that there were significantly less passes thrown in 2000 than in 2011.

 

(goes to check)

 

In 2000 there were 16322 passes attempted (32.9 per game) compared to 13677 rushes (27.6).

 

In 2011 (through 15 games) there have been 15195 passes attempted (33.9 per game) to 12212 rushes (27.3)

 

So based on that, Id say it may not be statistically significant the attempts.

 

Lets look at QB rating by year:

 

2000- league average was 76.2

 

2011- league average is 82.4

 

So all things being considered it appears that there has been roughly a 6 point bump in QB rating since 2000 (this compares favorably to the previous stats of how many Qbs had over 90 rating and over 100.)

 

Which still supports Smith is better this season than Dilfer. That being said, there also has been an increase in Qb rating, while there has not been a drastic increase in passing attempts. Suggests that there are more completions/tds.

That is all because of rule changes. In the 70' and 80's you could beat on the receivers until the quaterback threw the ball. Now you bascially cannot touch them after 5 yards. The rules have slowly eveloed to help the offense and the passing game. It's that old adage "chicks dig the long ball". The masses like fast paced high scroing games and the NFL is bowing to the public whim to make more money.

 

As for your other comment about tight ends. They aren't tight ends anymore, they are just big receivers. Heath Miller from the Steelers my be ones of the few left who can block. If you want some of the best who could both look at Ozzie Newsome and Kellen Winslow.

[southsider2k5]

49ers have some of the best young talent in the game today with Willis, Aldon Smith and several other stars..

 

I think Kyle Williams will be a big star in the NFL..

 

On the bright side we can cross one guy off of the "Could be Cowley" list for sure.

[Steve9347]

No we don't!

NFL season is over for me, I'm watching the Bulls/Lakers and the other NBA games that day...

This x infinity.

[LittleHurt05]

My NFL playoff predictions

 

NFC

 

#3 Saints 35 over #6 Lions 21

#5 Falcons 28 over #4 Cowboys 20

 

I'm still holding out hope that the Eagles pull out the division, that would be hilarious. They just need to win out & have the Giants lose to the Jets then beat the Cowboys. The Eagles could be dangerous in the playoffs, they obviously have the talent.

[Kyyle23]

Bears announce McCown starting Sunday night.

 

 

So F***ing stupid. Whats the point? McCown wont be a bear next season, you might as well start Enderle and see what the kid can do. Instead, we get a guy who was selling insurance a month ago.

 

 

Way to find out how your draft pick can do Jerry

[ptatc]

Bears announce McCown starting Sunday night.

 

 

So F***ing stupid. Whats the point? McCown wont be a bear next season, you might as well start Enderle and see what the kid can do. Instead, we get a guy who was selling insurance a month ago.

 

 

Way to find out how your draft pick can do Jerry

It's not up to Jerry, it's Lovie's call. Lovie probably doesn't want to get the kid killed behind that offensive line. Wouldn't surprise me if Enderle starts against the Vikings next week.

Edited December 21, 2011 by ptatc