LittleHurt05 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 01:15 PM) You take Buehrle, Santos, and Quentin out of last year's roster, and we're 8 WAR behind where we were last year. Really is that simple. That's the ground we need to make up just to get back to where we were last year, 78 wins. Yeah, but their spots & roles on the team are being directly filled by Sale, Reed(or Thornton I guess), & Viciedo. One would hope that those 3 combined would produce positive WAR, so that's the number you should compare to the 8 WAR those three put up lat year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) Viciedo and Sale are the standouts of the young players and exactly who you want to replace Quentin and Buehrle. It's likely that it was part of the plan before last year. But, especially after viciedo got hurt last year and Sale pitched out of the bullpen, you can't expect anywhere near the performance that you got out of the veterans last year. If you get that, great, but that's your entire margin of error otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) Yeah, but their spots & roles on the team are being directly filled by Sale, Reed(or Thornton I guess), & Viciedo. One would hope that those 3 combined would produce positive WAR, so that's the number you should compare to the 8 WAR those three put up lat year. Now if you want to go into it, Sale already put up 1.5 WAR last year and Viciedo 0.5, so they're already starting at having to make up those 2. If everyone steps up, those 2 can make up for the losses, but then we're just at the 78 wins we were at last year, and still uncompetitive. Then we need Dunn, Rios, Beckham, and Morel to step up, and no one else to step backwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:10 PM) But, especially after viciedo got hurt last year and Sale pitched out of the bullpen, you can't expect anywhere near the performance that you got out of the veterans last year. If you get that, great, but that's your entire margin of error otherwise. You never know about young players, but I would not trade the 2012 seasons of Sale and Viciedo for the 2012 seasons of Buehrle and Quentin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:13 PM) If everyone steps up, those 2 can make up for the losses, but then we're just at the 78 wins we were at last year, and still uncompetitive. Then we need Dunn, Rios, Beckham, and Morel to step up, and no one else to step backwards. Then the optimism going into last year was misplaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 03:24 PM) Then the optimism going into last year was misplaced. Can you not add? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Last year, if everything went right, the Sox could have won 100+ games, but they should have had a margin of error for guys like Morel to struggle, leaving them in a position to win the division at 90+ wins. Drop 8 wins off that list. If everything goes right for the Sox, they're now in a position to be a 90-95 win team. If anyone struggles, if Rios or Dunn doesn't play at an all star level, if Konerko gets a little older, or Sale tires out after 90 innings, then the team misses the playoffs. There is no margin for error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:25 PM) Can you not add? In fact I can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:28 PM) Last year, if everything went right, the Sox could have won 100+ games, but they should have had a margin of error for guys like Morel to struggle, leaving them in a position to win the division at 90+ wins. Drop 8 wins off that list. If everything goes right for the Sox, they're now in a position to be a 90-95 win team. If anyone struggles, if Rios or Dunn doesn't play at an all star level, if Konerko gets a little older, or Sale tires out after 90 innings, then the team misses the playoffs. There is no margin for error. How do you drop 8 wins off the list to start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 03:37 PM) How do you drop 8 wins off the list to start? Buehrle, Santos, Quentin gone, Sale to the rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:49 PM) Buehrle, Santos, Quentin gone, Sale to the rotation. Pierre gone too. Replaced by Deaza, Viciedo, and Reed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 03:53 PM) Pierre gone too. Replaced by Deaza, Viciedo, and Reed. Pierre was worthless last year, so losing him doesn't cost us anything. De Aza does have a bit of improved upside from Pierre, but that's about the only spot in the lineup you can look at and say "This spot is almost guaranteed to improve from last year". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) Pierre was worthless last year, so losing him doesn't cost us anything. De Aza does have a bit of improved upside from Pierre, but that's about the only spot in the lineup you can look at and say "This spot is almost guaranteed to improve from last year". Regarding Pierre, that was my point, so how do you come up with 8 losses worse off the top. Also, there's no way Dunn isn't better and I'll say the same for Rios too. Edited February 11, 2012 by Marty34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 02:24 PM) Then the optimism going into last year was misplaced. So is your hindsight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnCangelosi Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 04:04 PM) Regarding Pierre, that was my point, so how do you come up with 8 losses worse off the top. Also, there's no way Dunn isn't better and I'll say the same for Rios too. Wouldn't you say our bullpen is considerably weaker (at least on paper) going into this year? I agree that Rios will be much improved this year- no reason to think why just a gut feel. I wish I could say the same about Dunn but I am not so sure, as crazy and awful as that sounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (JohnCangelosi @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 07:03 PM) Wouldn't you say our bullpen is considerably weaker (at least on paper) going into this year? I agree that Rios will be much improved this year- no reason to think why just a gut feel. I wish I could say the same about Dunn but I am not so sure, as crazy and awful as that sounds. The bullpen is weaker overall, but the 7th-9th innings I don't think will see a huge dropoff. They do have some right-handed relief depth that I think will allow them to patch together an effective pen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 08:16 PM) The bullpen is weaker overall, but the 7th-9th innings I don't think will see a huge dropoff. They do have some right-handed relief depth that I think will allow them to patch together an effective pen. But without Mark!, the bullpen is going to have to be relied on a whole lot more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 But the difference is Sale has a real chance to be special, an All-Star pitcher, and make a huge impact like Floyd and Danks did in 2008. LF, 3B, CF (Rios), 2B (Beckham) you'd bet at Vegas the numbers would be better there than they were last year. AJ should be more or less the same he's been his whole career, and Flowers' numbers over 2-3 months could boost that position in the event of a trade. Konerko, obviously downside risk. Ramirez, likely to stay in that 725-740 OPS range, which is fine with his defensive abilities. We just don't know what we're going to get out of Viciedo and DeAza over a full season....or if either can stay healthy. And there has to be some positive 2-3 win uptick just getting rid of the dysfunctional Ozzie. Fathom found 8-10 games that Ozzie adversely and clearly effected with managerial decisions...clearly Robin will also have some growing pains, but this team with Minnesota down and KC/Cleveland both searching for another gear to be playoff worthy still has a slight opening. Yeah, 75 wins is more likely than 90, but anything inbetween is pretty realistic. Not buying all the doomsday scenarios of 100+ losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 08:27 PM) But the difference is Sale has a real chance to be special, an All-Star pitcher, and make a huge impact like Floyd and Danks did in 2008. For Sale, this is much more likely to be comparable to Danks's 2007. He hasn't built up innings or had to really rely on or develop his 3rd pitch yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 07:27 PM) But without Mark!, the bullpen is going to have to be relied on a whole lot more. Danks and Peavy will suck up some of 80 of those innings. The rest will come from a combination of Stewart and Molina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 09:08 PM) Danks and Peavy will suck up some of 80 of those innings. The rest will come from a combination of Stewart and Molina. And quite possibly Castro. Few in baseball would be surprised if he ends up having a better big league career than Stewart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 09:08 PM) Danks and Peavy will suck up some of 80 of those innings. The rest will come from a combination of Stewart and Molina. And without any doubt, I can say that those 2 are no where close to ready for the bigs right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty34 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 09:08 PM) And without any doubt, I can say that those 2 are no where close to ready for the bigs right now. Williams said at Soxfest he expects Molina to be with the team sometime in 2012. Remember, Buehrle at the end of a season pitches more like a #4 then a #2-#3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 10:25 PM) Williams said at Soxfest he expects Molina to be with the team sometime in 2012. Remember, Buehrle at the end of a season pitches more like a #4 then a #2-#3. Whatever KW says...he might get a callup, but neither of those guys are ready to play a role in a team even remotely close to contention. IF they're up and playing any sort of role, then that means the team isn't contending, they're retooling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 11, 2012 -> 09:25 PM) Williams said at Soxfest he expects Molina to be with the team sometime in 2012. Remember, Buehrle at the end of a season pitches more like a #4 then a #2-#3. I hope only as a September callup if anything. Dude has pitched a whole 22 innings in AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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