Official 2012-2013 NCAA Football Thread

[clyons]

Texas at this point yes, UNC not really.

 

There are rumors that many moons ago the Big10 approached UNC and the UNC faculty/admin were interested. Its merely hearsay on my part, so who knows.

 

I think Texas and the Big 12 are going to be proactive and try and nab Clemson/FSU before everything goes to hell. And Im pretty sure the SEC and Big want someone else to be the villain who destroyed the ACC.

 

I recall quite a bit of TX to the B1G talk a couple years ago, though. Granted, that was pre-Longhorn Network.

[RockRaines]

To be fair, UMD financial problems were their own doing.

 

 

 

Not that BT isn't a bigger cash cow.

Probably, but they just got into the largest TV deal in college football that has an earlier expiration for increase. They also just joined one of the two largest (in terms of fanbase) conferences and what looks to be the largest TV audience (80 million homes). Such a a win/win for them as a university. I'm sure their bball fans are mad, but thats because they have no idea how tough the Big Ten has become in bball.

[RockRaines]

Texas at this point yes, UNC not really.

 

There are rumors that many moons ago the Big10 approached UNC and the UNC faculty/admin were interested. Its merely hearsay on my part, so who knows.

 

I think Texas and the Big 12 are going to be proactive and try and nab Clemson/FSU before everything goes to hell. And Im pretty sure the SEC and Big want someone else to be the villain who destroyed the ACC.

FSU and Maryland voted against the penalty increase to leave the ACC when ND joined. To me that says FSU has been looking to jump as well.

[Soxbadger]

I recall quite a bit of TX to the B1G talk a couple years ago, though. Granted, that was pre-Longhorn Network.

 

Add in the fact that Texas was almost in the Pac, it just seems like the Big10/Texas deal is dead. Anything can happen, its just Texas is really far away and unless they are going to 20, Texas is going to have no school that is even close.

 

FSU and Maryland voted against the penalty increase to leave the ACC when ND joined. To me that says FSU has been looking to jump as well.

 

FSU is in a bad spot. Most would agree there is no chance in Big, leaving SEC and Big12. SEC allegedly has a pact between members of not adding a second school in state (No clemson, gtech or fsu). So they are basically stuck with moving to Big12 but FSU did not believe Big12 was that big of an upgrade over ACC.

 

If FSU leaves ACC, there will be a lot of moves. If they stay in the ACC, the ACC may survive but itll be like the old Big East, no one really cares.

 

[cabiness42]

Add in the fact that Texas was almost in the Pac, it just seems like the Big10/Texas deal is dead. Anything can happen, its just Texas is really far away and unless they are going to 20, Texas is going to have no school that is even close.

 

 

 

FSU is in a bad spot. Most would agree there is no chance in Big, leaving SEC and Big12. SEC allegedly has a pact between members of not adding a second school in state (No clemson, gtech or fsu). So they are basically stuck with moving to Big12 but FSU did not believe Big12 was that big of an upgrade over ACC.

 

If FSU leaves ACC, there will be a lot of moves. If they stay in the ACC, the ACC may survive but itll be like the old Big East, no one really cares.

 

Who the ACC gets to replace Maryland will go a long way toward deciding FSU's fate. If they go with a Northeastern school with a weak football program like UConn, then FSU will be booking the next train out of town. If they go with a southern school with a better football program, like Louisville, that makes it more palatable for FSU to stay.

 

Also, I think that a duplicate of ND's deal is still on the table for Texas and the ACC. That would certainly convince FSU to stay.

[Soxbadger]

Who the ACC gets to replace Maryland will go a long way toward deciding FSU's fate. If they go with a Northeastern school with a weak football program like UConn, then FSU will be booking the next train out of town. If they go with a southern school with a better football program, like Louisville, that makes it more palatable for FSU to stay.

 

Also, I think that a duplicate of ND's deal is still on the table for Texas and the ACC. That would certainly convince FSU to stay.

 

If the ACC adds Louisville I never get to hear another ACC fan tell me how academics are everything to them, so that would be greatly pleasing.

 

As for the second part, I assume FSU hates the ND deal. FSU was THE ACC football power foryears. They dont get ANY special treatment. Yet the ACC let ND legitimately rape them for a few football games? Why would FSU want ND to have a chance at an ACC bid, when ND doesnt even have to really be part of the ACC? That deal is good for the Carolina schools, the exact reason why FSU wanted to leave in the first place.

 

 

 

The only reason Texas would have an impact, is it would mean that the Big12 is dead, in which case FSU would have no choice unless another conference forms.

[RockRaines]

If the ACC adds Louisville I never get to hear another ACC fan tell me how academics are everything to them, so that would be greatly pleasing.

 

As for the second part, I assume FSU hates the ND deal. FSU was THE ACC football power foryears. They dont get ANY special treatment. Yet the ACC let ND legitimately rape them for a few football games? Why would FSU want ND to have a chance at an ACC bid, when ND doesnt even have to really be part of the ACC? That deal is good for the Carolina schools, the exact reason why FSU wanted to leave in the first place.

 

 

 

The only reason Texas would have an impact, is it would mean that the Big12 is dead, in which case FSU would have no choice unless another conference forms.

ACC isnt that great academically anyway.

 

IMO the Pac-12 and Big Ten are going to gobble up most the Big 12 at some point and they will become the 2 super conferences on the left side and midwest part of the map.

 

AS for the "ND" deal for Texas, that would make every other school bounce out of the ACC. Now you have 2 schools with their own TV deals, your conference's sucks and yet you are forced to not have a chance to make more money for yourselves? You can join the #1 TV deal in the Big Ten or the #2 in SEC.

 

I just saw today that the Big East is essentially down to all schools who joined after 2003. This train is moving towards super conferences and its every man for himself.

Edited November 20, 2012 by RockRaines

[cabiness42]

If the ACC adds Louisville I never get to hear another ACC fan tell me how academics are everything to them, so that would be greatly pleasing.

 

As for the second part, I assume FSU hates the ND deal. FSU was THE ACC football power foryears. They dont get ANY special treatment. Yet the ACC let ND legitimately rape them for a few football games? Why would FSU want ND to have a chance at an ACC bid, when ND doesnt even have to really be part of the ACC? That deal is good for the Carolina schools, the exact reason why FSU wanted to leave in the first place.

 

 

 

The only reason Texas would have an impact, is it would mean that the Big12 is dead, in which case FSU would have no choice unless another conference forms.

 

Right, but ACC football isn't strong enough for a 1-loss team to get into the Championship game, and maybe not even into the 4-team playoff. In a couple years, five ACC teams a year have ND on their schedule, which is going to strengthen the conferences SOS and thus their computer ratings. Plus, half of those games will be home games for the ACC teams which brings a lot of dollar value to the next TV contract.

 

FSU is never getting an invite from the SEC or the Big Ten, so they're either going to stay in the ACC or move to the Big 12, and Texas moving to the ACC makes that decision for them.

 

 

[RockRaines]

Right, but ACC football isn't strong enough for a 1-loss team to get into the Championship game, and maybe not even into the 4-team playoff. In a couple years, five ACC teams a year have ND on their schedule, which is going to strengthen the conferences SOS and thus their computer ratings. Plus, half of those games will be home games for the ACC teams which brings a lot of dollar value to the next TV contract.

 

FSU is never getting an invite from the SEC or the Big Ten, so they're either going to stay in the ACC or move to the Big 12, and Texas moving to the ACC makes that decision for them.

What portion of the ND TV deal does the ACC schools get?

[cabiness42]

What portion of the ND TV deal does the ACC schools get?

 

They don't get any portion of ND's TV deal, but ND's TV deal covers only ND home games, and half of ND's 5 games per year they are obligated to are going to be home games for the ACC teams, so that will be a big ratings boost which should lead to a better TV deal for the ACC.

[Soxbadger]

Right, but ACC football isn't strong enough for a 1-loss team to get into the Championship game, and maybe not even into the 4-team playoff. In a couple years, five ACC teams a year have ND on their schedule, which is going to strengthen the conferences SOS and thus their computer ratings. Plus, half of those games will be home games for the ACC teams which brings a lot of dollar value to the next TV contract.

 

FSU is never getting an invite from the SEC or the Big Ten, so they're either going to stay in the ACC or move to the Big 12, and Texas moving to the ACC makes that decision for them.

 

Instead of looking at this from a ND perspective, look at it from a FSU perspective. What if ND is not on FSU's schedule as they are not 1 of the 5 teams. What if both FSU and ND go undefeated. If you are FSU, do you want to leave it up to the humans to decide if they want ND or FSU?

 

And 5 games, is 2 or 3 per year. That isnt going to dramatically change the negotiation. ND isnt part of the ACC, if they were we would be having a completely different discussion. ND showed how weak the ACC was. The ACC caved to ND, a school that would not even be the richest or biggest school in the Big10.

 

If Texas moved, it would destabilize the Big 12, if Texas does not become a full acc member, I would assume that schools like OU, FSU, K-State, Kansas, Clemson, would have real serious discussions about forming a new conference. How can you stay in a conference that gives out special treatment?

 

My belief is that Texas in the ACC is just not going to happen. Why would a school make less money, play weaker schools and move to a conference dominated by Carolina teams, when its in a conference that makes more money, has stronger schools and is dominated by Texas.

 

Its just an odd argument.

[cabiness42]

Instead of looking at this from a ND perspective, look at it from a FSU perspective. What if ND is not on FSU's schedule as they are not 1 of the 5 teams. What if both FSU and ND go undefeated. If you are FSU, do you want to leave it up to the humans to decide if they want ND or FSU?

 

And 5 games, is 2 or 3 per year. That isnt going to dramatically change the negotiation. ND isnt part of the ACC, if they were we would be having a completely different discussion. ND showed how weak the ACC was. The ACC caved to ND, a school that would not even be the richest or biggest school in the Big10.

 

If Texas moved, it would destabilize the Big 12, if Texas does not become a full acc member, I would assume that schools like OU, FSU, K-State, Kansas, Clemson, would have real serious discussions about forming a new conference. How can you stay in a conference that gives out special treatment?

 

My belief is that Texas in the ACC is just not going to happen. Why would a school make less money, play weaker schools and move to a conference dominated by Carolina teams, when its in a conference that makes more money, has stronger schools and is dominated by Texas.

 

Its just an odd argument.

 

FSU (and every ACC team) will be on ND's schedule a minimum of 2 out of every 8 years--that's part of the agreement. By the time the ND arrangement takes effect, the 4-team playoff will be here and if there is a year where FSU and ND don't play each other and both go undefeated, they'll almost certainly both make the playoff.

 

I don't know for sure that Texas to the ACC will happen, but I know for a fact that the discussions have occurred. Texas is the school that originally pitched a ND-to-the-Big12 plan just like the one ND ended up taking from the ACC, but ND did not like the fit for all their other sports in the Big 12 and had no real interest in playing games against Big 12 teams other than Texas and Oklahoma. ND ended up taking the ACC deal and has suggested to both Texas and the ACC that they do the same thing.

[RockRaines]

They don't get any portion of ND's TV deal, but ND's TV deal covers only ND home games, and half of ND's 5 games per year they are obligated to are going to be home games for the ACC teams, so that will be a big ratings boost which should lead to a better TV deal for the ACC.

Ratings boost based on what?

 

Their games are already covered in alot of ND's key demographic, so there isnt any additional revenue there for them. They get Chicago which is obviously a nice win.

 

But here is the part that I think there is a disconnect. And let's use UNC as a key example. RIght now ND delivers them no additional revenue. They get zero additional money from ND's deal and already have one of the worst TV deals in the nation. And if you actually look at the largest TV markets for College football, ND's inclusion doesnt get them into any of them. UNC is probably THE premier bball school so they have no worry of losing audience and no desire to gain audience.

 

Now if they are courted by the Big Ten you get the largest TV deal in college football which looks be a shade under 30 million per team next year. You get the entire midwest, NYC and your area which already gets the Big Ten network and is putting in on basic cable for you.

 

Or for some of the other teams that are attractive to the SEC you get a better TV deal, you get something like 3 of the 5 largest college football audiences and essentially non-stop play on ESPN for both sports.

 

 

ND to the ACC for bball and partially for football just isnt the best deal out there for most of these schools, which is why the more attractive ones will bolt IMO.

[RockRaines]

My belief is that Texas in the ACC is just not going to happen. Why would a school make less money, play weaker schools and move to a conference dominated by Carolina teams, when its in a conference that makes more money, has stronger schools and is dominated by Texas.

 

Its just an odd argument.

Thats because it's off the wall. The ACC TV market is very tiny outside of DC. It's a huge downgrade for Texas which is why they probably laughed and hung up the phone.

[cabiness42]

Ratings boost based on what?

 

Their games are already covered in alot of ND's key demographic, so there isnt any additional revenue there for them. They get Chicago which is obviously a nice win.

 

But here is the part that I think there is a disconnect. And let's use UNC as a key example. RIght now ND delivers them no additional revenue. They get zero additional money from ND's deal and already have one of the worst TV deals in the nation. And if you actually look at the largest TV markets for College football, ND's inclusion doesnt get them into any of them. UNC is probably THE premier bball school so they have no worry of losing audience and no desire to gain audience.

 

Now if they are courted by the Big Ten you get the largest TV deal in college football which looks be a shade under 30 million per team next year. You get the entire midwest, NYC and your area which already gets the Big Ten network and is putting in on basic cable for you.

 

Or for some of the other teams that are attractive to the SEC you get a better TV deal, you get something like 3 of the 5 largest college football audiences and essentially non-stop play on ESPN for both sports.

 

 

ND to the ACC for bball and partially for football just isnt the best deal out there for most of these schools, which is why the more attractive ones will bolt IMO.

 

The ACC gets a ratings boost based on the fact that they are playing Notre Dame instead of Savannah State or Western Carolina for some of their nonconference games.

[Soxbadger]

FSU (and every ACC team) will be on ND's schedule a minimum of 2 out of every 8 years--that's part of the agreement. By the time the ND arrangement takes effect, the 4-team playoff will be here and if there is a year where FSU and ND don't play each other and both go undefeated, they'll almost certainly both make the playoff.

 

I don't know for sure that Texas to the ACC will happen, but I know for a fact that the discussions have occurred. Texas is the school that originally pitched a ND-to-the-Big12 plan just like the one ND ended up taking from the ACC, but ND did not like the fit for all their other sports in the Big 12 and had no real interest in playing games against Big 12 teams other than Texas and Oklahoma. ND ended up taking the ACC deal and has suggested to both Texas and the ACC that they do the same thing.

 

Maybe, but it means that in order to have a chance, they are always going to have to be +1 in the loss column. If it ends with everyone at 1 loss then, the SEC is going to get a bid, the Big10 is going to get a bid and the Pac are going to get a bid. That means there is 1 bid for everyone else.

 

It was a stupid deal for the ACC and I am pretty sure they know it. The problem was they really had no other options. But you need to protect your own, you cant let ND share your spot unless ND is in the ACC.

 

The saddest part is, I believe that if ND goes for the ACC, they dont even have to split the money with the ACC.

 

The Texas idea was back when the Big12 looked to be on the brink. Now that the Big12 is more stable than the ACC, no idea why Texas would make what at best is a lateral move.

[RockRaines]

The ACC gets a ratings boost based on the fact that they are playing Notre Dame instead of Savannah State or Western Carolina for some of their nonconference games.

And do you think that ratings boost based on in your opinion is worth upwards of 10 million dollars?

[RockRaines]

Maybe, but it means that in order to have a chance, they are always going to have to be +1 in the loss column. If it ends with everyone at 1 loss then, the SEC is going to get a bid, the Big10 is going to get a bid and the Pac are going to get a bid. That means there is 1 bid for everyone else.

 

It was a stupid deal for the ACC and I am pretty sure they know it. The problem was they really had no other options. But you need to protect your own, you cant let ND share your spot unless ND is in the ACC.

 

The saddest part is, I believe that if ND goes for the ACC, they dont even have to split the money with the ACC.

 

The Texas idea was back when the Big12 looked to be on the brink. Now that the Big12 is more stable than the ACC, no idea why Texas would make what at best is a lateral move.

Conferences are going to have to pay Texas much more handsomely than the ACC could for their 8 million TV subscribers. The top two fanbases in the ACC are Clemson and GT followed by VT and Miami. All four of those schools are in play if they can get another 10 million dollars annually. You can bet on that.

Edited November 20, 2012 by RockRaines

[Soxbadger]

The other Texas problem is that I believe big12 changed their agreement so that they own tier 1 rights (like the Big 10) so Texas or anyone leaving gives up their money for a good 10 years or so.

 

Which is why youd have to basically dismantle the Big12, so you could then say the agreement is unenforceable as their is no big12.

 

(You should ask someone in the Big 12 for more information, Id say Heads may know)

[RockRaines]

My point is this: It's going to come down to Fox vs ESPN at this point and the lines are being drawn. The TV deals being handed out currently are those that would have never been alluded to years ago. ND's TV deal at one time was considered outrageous and ludicrous and now its simply below average while conferences like the Big Ten and SEC are working to pay schools to join their networks. The Pac-12 is trying their hardest to produce their own and the LongHorn network although lucrative at first is struggling to survive with a viewership at less than 10 percent of the Big Ten's. This became incredibly obvious with the inclusion of Rutgers, the purchase of the YES network in NYC and now the expansion into TV markets that are out of scope for conferences. The SEC LOVEs being in Texas, the Big Ten loves being in DC and NYC. Follow the dollar and I think we will see what the super conferences will be.

[Heads22]

Texas will not leave the Big 12 unless the conference chooses to dissolve.

 

The Grant of Rights makes it IMPOSSIBLE to leave. If Texas were to leave the conference, the Big 12 would still own the TV rights to all of their games through 2024-25.

 

No one's leaving the Big 12 unless everyone does, because the conference - not the schools - own the TV rights.

 

In other news, the Va Tech AD said he'd be interested in talking to the SEC.

[farmteam]

In other news, the Va Tech AD said he'd be interested in talking to the SEC.

Other conferences smelling blood in the water with the ACC?

[Rex Hudler]

It's failing and you add it to the Big Ten Network I guess.

 

Only problem with that is Fox owns 495 of the BTN. ESPN is the owner of the Longhorn Network, simply paying UT an annual fee. A financial arrangement is possible, but I don't see how they could meld them together.

[Heads22]

Only problem with that is Fox owns 495 of the BTN. ESPN is the owner of the Longhorn Network, simply paying UT an annual fee. A financial arrangement is possible, but I don't see how they could meld them together.

 

 

They can't and won't unless everything gets ten times crazier than before.

[cabiness42]

The saddest part is, I believe that if ND goes for the ACC, they dont even have to split the money with the ACC.

 

ND does not share their bowl/playoff money with the ACC, and the ACC does not share their bowl/playoff money with ND.

 

You have to figure that even as weak as the ACC is, they will get more playoff appearances than ND by itself.