Official 2012-2013 NCAA Football Thread

[Balta1701]

Is that rankings at the time of the game or final rankings? Wondering where a team like Mich. St. is winding up.

[Boogua]

Sagarin Ratings of opponents:

 

ND / Alabama

 

8 / 7

9 / 11

16 / 20

20 / 33

37 / 36

39 / 43

52 / 54

62 / 65

66 / 87

73 / 84

113 / 127

121 / 204

 

ND had the tougher schedule by a fair margin, and also won every game.

Weren't you the one who mentioned a letdown spot earlier to excuse NDs near loss to Pitt? Now imagine that letdown spot was played against Texas A&M. Take off the blinders, sir.

 

Oh dear, after doing 3 minutes of research I noticed that USC is the 16 that is on that list. The 7-5 USC trojans who were playing without Matt Barkley. Seems legit.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Boogua

[cabiness42]

Weren't you the one who mentioned a letdown spot earlier to excuse NDs near loss to Pitt? Now imagine that letdown spot was played against Texas A&M. Take off the blinders, sir.

 

I didn't say that the letdown excused ND's poor play. I said that it was a trap to bet ND all the way up to -13 the week after a big win.

[cabiness42]

Is that rankings at the time of the game or final rankings? Wondering where a team like Mich. St. is winding up.

 

Those are their current Sagarin rankings.

[cabiness42]

Weren't you the one who mentioned a letdown spot earlier to excuse NDs near loss to Pitt? Now imagine that letdown spot was played against Texas A&M. Take off the blinders, sir.

 

Oh dear, after doing 3 minutes of research I noticed that USC is the 16 that is on that list. The 7-5 USC trojans who were playing without Matt Barkley. Seems legit.

 

3 of USC's losses were to Top 10 teams and another was to a Top 15 team and none were by more than 11 points, so yeah, that's how the computers rank you in the Top 20 despite 5 losses.

[LittleHurt05]

Since we are talking about schedule strength, how about Michigan? They lost 4 games. The combined record of those 4 opponents? 45-3. (I'm not saying they deserve to be ranked higher, just an observation)

 

 

[Boogua]

3 of USC's losses were to Top 10 teams and another was to a Top 15 team and none were by more than 11 points, so yeah, that's how the computers rank you in the Top 20 despite 5 losses.

That's fantastic, but Barkley didn't play against ND and if you think that counts for nothing, well then I don't know. I just don't think USC is the 16th best team country without Barkley. If you do that's fine.

 

 

[cabiness42]

Since we are talking about schedule strength, how about Michigan? They lost 4 games. The combined record of those 4 opponents? 45-3. (I'm not saying they deserve to be ranked higher, just an observation)

 

Yes, they had a tough schedule as well.

 

[cabiness42]

That's fantastic, but Barkley didn't play against ND and if you think that counts for nothing, well then I don't know. I just don't think USC is the 16th best team country without Barkley. If you do that's fine.

 

The backup was inexperienced for sure, but he's awfully talented. Probably would have started for 90% of FBS teams. Maybe not the 16th best team, but certainly no pushover given the circumstances and pressure ND was facing. Not exactly like beating Auburn to reach the SEC title game.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

The backup was inexperienced for sure, but he's awfully talented. Probably would have started for 90% of FBS teams. Maybe not the 16th best team, but certainly no pushover given the circumstances and pressure ND was facing. Not exactly like beating Auburn to reach the SEC title game.

 

Of course he's talented if he's the backup at a program like USC, but there's no way in hell he'd be starting for 90% of FBS teams right now as a freshman. And, for arguments sake, even if he was, he would have been all year and this would have been his 10th/11th/12th game, not his first game ever.

 

And speaking of Auburn, what the hell happened to them?

[cabiness42]

Of course he's talented if he's the backup at a program like USC, but there's no way in hell he'd be starting for 90% of FBS teams right now as a freshman. And, for arguments sake, even if he was, he would have been all year and this would have been his 10th/11th/12th game, not his first game ever.

 

And speaking of Auburn, what the hell happened to them?

 

He's a RS Freshman, and USC hordes QBs. They turn to s*** in the NFL, but they are amazing at USC. I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that he would have started for 90% of teams. Hell, he would have started for ND and they're #1.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

He's a RS Freshman, and USC hordes QBs. They turn to s*** in the NFL, but they are amazing at USC. I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that he would have started for 90% of teams. Hell, he would have started for ND and they're #1.

 

Ok, I would put the number closer to half of that personally, but my point was even if that was true, there is a big difference in starting as a talented freshman all season rather than getting thrown in to arguably USC's biggest game of the year (at least one of) on a week's notice with zero prior experience.

[Boogua]

The backup was inexperienced for sure, but he's awfully talented. Probably would have started for 90% of FBS teams. Maybe not the 16th best team, but certainly no pushover given the circumstances and pressure ND was facing. Not exactly like beating Auburn to reach the SEC title game.

Nevertheless, if you move USC down on that list to make up for Barkley missing the game, then the scheduls are very, very close in terms of overall strength. ND just got lucky because they had really no tough games in back-to-back weeks. Nothing comparable to TAMU & LSU obviously.

 

I'm not trying to discount what ND did. They were impressive. My initial post was only disagreeing a bit with what RockRaines said about Bama's schedule being easier. After doing research I'm even more comfortable with my stance.

 

I don't really care about SOS, though. I just like talking about the potential ND-Bama matchup to get different perspectives on how the game might play out and important matchups in the game for betting purposes. You're not helping me out at all on this.

 

I know you firmly believe ND covers whatever the line may be and you probably think they might even win. That's fine, but can you at least tell me why (other than NDs defense is so great!)

Edited November 26, 2012 by Boogua

[fathom]

Of course he's talented if he's the backup at a program like USC, but there's no way in hell he'd be starting for 90% of FBS teams right now as a freshman. And, for arguments sake, even if he was, he would have been all year and this would have been his 10th/11th/12th game, not his first game ever.

 

 

Wittig has a good future, but you could tell the timing was way off between him and Lee. I think USC likely scores 10 more points with Barkley at QB in that game, but I also think ND probably tries harder for TDs instead of settling for field goals.

[cabiness42]

Nevertheless, if you move USC down on that list to make up for Barkley missing the game, then the schedule is very, very close in terms of overall strength. ND just got lucky because they had really no tough games in back-to-back weeks. Nothing comparable to TAMU & LSU obviously.

 

I'm not trying to discount what ND did. They were impressive. My initial post was only disagreeing a bit with what RockRaines said about Bama's schedule being easier. After doing research I'm even more comfortable with my stance.

 

I don't really care about SOS, though. I just like talking about the potential ND-Bama matchup to get different perspectives on how the game might play out and important matchups in the game for betting purposes. You're not helping me out at all on this.

 

I know you firmly believe ND covers whatever the line may be and you probably think they might even win. That's fine, but can you at least tell me why (other than NDs defense is so great!)

 

The defense being great is a big part of why ND likely covers (this is assuming that the line really is at or above 10). ND plays a lot more low-scoring games compared to most teams. The bettors seem to have not adjusted to that by making ND either too big of a dog or too big of a favorite in nearly all of their games.

 

Also, even if ND's offense isn't good enough to score a bunch of points against Alabama, they are good enough to string a few first downs together and run some clock. I don't see them just going 3-and-out every single time they have the ball.

 

Finally, the SEC has won the last 6 championship games, which has very little to do with this year's game but will influence the line. Always look for "sucker" factors that push the line one way or the other.

 

 

[Boogua]

The defense being great is a big part of why ND likely covers (this is assuming that the line really is at or above 10). ND plays a lot more low-scoring games compared to most teams. The bettors seem to have not adjusted to that by making ND either too big of a dog or too big of a favorite in nearly all of their games.

 

Also, even if ND's offense isn't good enough to score a bunch of points against Alabama, they are good enough to string a few first downs together and run some clock. I don't see them just going 3-and-out every single time they have the ball.

 

Finally, the SEC has won the last 6 championship games, which has very little to do with this year's game but will influence the line. Always look for "sucker" factors that push the line one way or the other.

I'm trying to think of logical scores where Bama doesn't win by 10+ and it's difficult. 13-6? I really don't know. Bama hasn't scored under 20 points in any games this year. ND is the best defense they will face, but Alabama is one of the best offenses ND will face (Bama won't get beat up physically like OU). Alabama's run O vs NDs run D should be amazing to watch. Strength vs strength.

 

I'm really looking forward to it, but I'm having a lot of difficulty picturing ND score 10+ points.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

For those interested, these are potential lines from Vegas

 

ND vs

 

Bame (-8.5)

Georgia (-4)

Florida (-1.5)

LSU (Pick)

A&M (-3.5)

So. Carolina (+1)

 

They list Bovada beneath and that line has Bama (-9.5)

Edited November 26, 2012 by ChiSox_Sonix

[iamshack]

For those interested, these are potential lines from Vegas

 

ND vs

 

Bame (-8.5)

Georgia (-4)

Florida (-1.5)

LSU (Pick)

A&M (-3.5)

So. Carolina (+1)

 

They list Bovada beneath and he has Bama (-9.5)

I am truly reaching degenerate status...

[RockRaines]

It really depends on how you look at it.

 

First of all, I count 3 ranked teams for both of them (Michigan, Oklahoma, and Stanford for ND and Michigan, TAMU, and LSU for Bama). Second of all, Pitt (who was the let down game and a game that ND should have lost) came after Oklahoma. LSU was followed by TAMU for Bama. To me that's tougher. Just my opinion though.

I wasnt really trying to say that was a determining factor of predicting a winner here. I remember in 2006 my undefeated team was supposed to blow out the opponent and we got creamed. I just dont think anyone can make a point for one team over the other at this point. The SEC championship should at least tell us a little more.

[fathom]

Thing is, if Alabama goes out and destroys UGa, then the line will likely be even higher for Alabama heading into the NC game. I definitely can't see anyone beating this ND squad by more than 13 points or so based on their defense.

[RockRaines]

Thing is, if Alabama goes out and destroys UGa, then the line will likely be even higher for Alabama heading into the NC game. I definitely can't see anyone beating this ND squad by more than 13 points or so based on their defense.

It would take a total failure of their offense and many more plays run by the opposition. It COULD happen, but unlikely unless the matchup is just bad for ND.

[iamshack]

It would take a total failure of their offense and many more plays run by the opposition. It COULD happen, but unlikely unless the matchup is just bad for ND.

If something flukey was to happen and they got down big fast, they could lose by a lot...but so could Alabama...

[IlliniKrush]

https://twitter.com/11W/status/272780921449639936/photo/1

[LittleHurt05]

https://twitter.com/11W/status/272780921449639936/photo/1

 

[RockRaines]

Big Ten coaches prove once again they are either mad or have no eye for talent.