Jake Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 22, 2012 -> 08:27 AM) I thought he actually did pretty decently in 2010? http://www.pacificnorthwestcoastbias.com/g...on-predictions/ Yeah he did fairly well, depending on the standard with which you measure. Maybe that rate of accuracy doesn't feel accurate, because it is of course not absolutely certain. As a Political Science student (by no means an expert, I don't even like this aspect of the field), I love his methods and his willingness to share them. He doesn't make the smart guy mistake of over-complicating everything and you see over-complication screwing a lot of pollsters, especially the wildly inconsistent ones like Gallup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 22, 2012 -> 08:27 AM) I thought he actually did pretty decently in 2010? http://www.pacificnorthwestcoastbias.com/g...on-predictions/ In 2010 he had the probability of the GOP gaining less than 60 seats at 70%. They got 64. His predictions didn't pan out to be necessarily good, definitely not exceptional. He is pretty overrated IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev211 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 (edited) I am an undecided voter today because I think both candidates suck. I have a couple questions. Please keep answers short. 1.) Why should I vote for Obama? 2.) Why should I vote for Romney? 3.) Why should I vote at all, being that the state of Kansas would vote Rebublican and my vote won't matter, even if the Republican candidate for president was Donald Trump? What is the argument for voting when your state is 100 percent going one way. Edited November 5, 2012 by greg775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even if you don't vote for President, there are still numerous other races on the state and local level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 01:23 PM) I am an undecided voter today because I think both candidates suck. I have a couple questions. Please keep answers short. 1.) Why should I vote for Obama? 2.) Why should I vote for Romney? 3.) Why should I vote at all, being that the state of Kansas would vote Rebublican and my vote won't matter, even if the Republican candidate for president was Donald Trump? What is the argument for voting when your state is 100 percent going one way. Why greg775 should vote for: Obama - He's a Christian. He is a known entity and under his watch you have seen the economy finish crashing and start coming back up. He has increased the rights of all kinds of Americans, namely the right to equal pay for women and the right to serve openly for gays, and will end up on the right side of history, socially. In the coming term, several Supreme Court seats are likely to open up...what kind of justices do you want to see appointed? If you want ones that will protect the rights of women, gays, minorities, etc. then Obama may be your choice. If you like helping your fellow man when things are down, Obama is probably your guy. If you don't want to use a voucher to buy healthcare when you get older or perhaps you don't want your social security checks to be underfunded, Obama is your guy. If you want someone that is worldly working in foreign affairs that has no impulse to justify our foreign wars and understands foreign cultures, there's Obama again. If you want someone who won't be run over by his party leadership because he IS the party leadership, there he is again. Romney - He's new. He ran a business very successfully. He claims to wish to lower your income tax rate further than it already has. You may think the Supreme Court justices he would appoint would reflect your values better. As someone who has outsourced, he likely has a very intimate idea of what causes someone to do that and probably knows that there are actually good times to do things like that (would you rather be partially outsourced or not exist? for instance). Despite what he's said, he's unlikely to prioritize a repeal of Obamacare because it is so similar to the law he pushed so hard for in Mass. Also, Romney will inherit a recovering economy so he won't have to change much to keep things going. You also may find the same party holding Pres and House to be better than Pres and Senate (if BO is elected). Vote for anyone - Don't be the kind of person that embarrasses the country that claims to be the most democratic place in the world while boasting a terrible turnout rate in comparison to other democratic governments. Speak your voice in local politics, spend time tonight and see who is running locally. Even if your vote tomorrow doesn't result in a different candidate being elected, you will be heard. Every city, county, state is evaluated not just for which candidate they went for, but also at what strength. Your rep., your president, everyone cares about who you voted for. If your vote makes your area more R-leaning, then R's will please you more. If your vote makes your area more D-leaning, then D's will try to please you more and the R's will try to win you back. Speak out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 08:25 PM) Even if you don't vote for President, there are still numerous other races on the state and local level. Exactly. Greg, you're life will be significantly more affected by your local rep and alderman than the president. Not voting on local bills is the reason why cities can get so corrupt. They'll cater to the constituencies that prove to show up. Hence, taxi cartels shutting down an adequate new service that employs a few hundred in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 02:29 PM) Exactly. Greg, you're life will be significantly more affected by your local rep and alderman than the president. Not voting on local bills is the reason why cities can get so corrupt. They'll cater to the constituencies that prove to show up. Hence, taxi cartels shutting down an adequate new service that employs a few hundred in Chicago. Amen brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 07:53 PM) Why greg775 should vote for: Obama - He's a Christian. He is a known entity and under his watch you have seen the economy finish crashing and start coming back up. He has increased the rights of all kinds of Americans, namely the right to equal pay for women and the right to serve openly for gays, and will end up on the right side of history, socially. In the coming term, several Supreme Court seats are likely to open up...what kind of justices do you want to see appointed? If you want ones that will protect the rights of women, gays, minorities, etc. then Obama may be your choice. If you like helping your fellow man when things are down, Obama is probably your guy. If you don't want to use a voucher to buy healthcare when you get older or perhaps you don't want your social security checks to be underfunded, Obama is your guy. If you want someone that is worldly working in foreign affairs that has no impulse to justify our foreign wars and understands foreign cultures, there's Obama again. If you want someone who won't be run over by his party leadership because he IS the party leadership, there he is again. Romney - He's new. He ran a business very successfully. He claims to wish to lower your income tax rate further than it already has. You may think the Supreme Court justices he would appoint would reflect your values better. As someone who has outsourced, he likely has a very intimate idea of what causes someone to do that and probably knows that there are actually good times to do things like that (would you rather be partially outsourced or not exist? for instance). Despite what he's said, he's unlikely to prioritize a repeal of Obamacare because it is so similar to the law he pushed so hard for in Mass. Also, Romney will inherit a recovering economy so he won't have to change much to keep things going. You also may find the same party holding Pres and House to be better than Pres and Senate (if BO is elected). Vote for anyone - Don't be the kind of person that embarrasses the country that claims to be the most democratic place in the world while boasting a terrible turnout rate in comparison to other democratic governments. Speak your voice in local politics, spend time tonight and see who is running locally. Even if your vote tomorrow doesn't result in a different candidate being elected, you will be heard. Every city, county, state is evaluated not just for which candidate they went for, but also at what strength. Your rep., your president, everyone cares about who you voted for. If your vote makes your area more R-leaning, then R's will please you more. If your vote makes your area more D-leaning, then D's will try to please you more and the R's will try to win you back. Speak out! Nice post. appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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