A Lot for White Sox to Overcome

[DirtySox]

A lengthy but great piece on the state of the White Sox by Mark Gonzales. Not much to disagree with. Here's hoping Kenny isn't hesitant to blow it up if we see more of the same.

 

 

The White Sox haven't won a postseason game since October 2008, a period known more for a financial crisis.

 

And never did the task of returning to the playoffs seem as distant as it did on Dec. 6 when Ken Williams used the word ''rebuilding'' — even if the Sox general manager quickly emphasized he wasn't embarking on a "falling domino rebuilding'' project. What is certain is the Sox are at a crossroads. They have retained enough veterans to convince themselves they can compete in the American League Central — a division they have won once since their 2005 World Series championship despite significant increases in payroll. At the same time, they're trying to restock a trade-depleted farm system that Baseball America ranks last among the 30 major league franchises. Further complicating matters is the need to invigorate a fan base in a competitive sports market amid the Bears, Bulls, Blackhawks and Cubs, who have seized most of the offseason attention despite not winning a World Series since 1908. One longtime talent evaluator believes it's time for the Sox to commit fully to rebuilding. "The Cubs have to rebuild, too," said the scout, who requested anonymity. "What better time to rebuild. The one thing that people don't understand is that you can't turn a Cubs fan into a White Sox fan. They'll always be Cubs fans. "The Angels tried that with the Dodgers until Arte Moreno took over (as owner) and created their own identity."

 

Cut-rate tickets

 

The Sox already have tried to entice fans with lower prices — as much as 31 percent for full-season ticket packages, and 48 percent of their full and split-season (27 game) plans will cost less than $30 per game. These reductions come with the loss of ace left-hander and fan favorite Mark Buehrle to free agency, as well as the trades of All-Star slugger Carlos Quentin, reliever and Chicago-area native Jason Frasor and closer Sergio Santos, whose trade to the Blue Jays stunned several in baseball because Santos is under contract for the next three years at $8.25 million total with three options through 2017. The Sox didn't sign a free agent to their 40-man roster until Tuesday when they added backup outfielder Kosuke Fukudome for the thrifty commitment of $1 million. With Fukudome, their projected player payroll on Opening Day could be $103 million – about $24 million less than last year. At SoxFest last month, Williams said he hasn't been ordered to cut more payroll, and he kept enough seasoned players to convince himself and veterans they can compete in a division the defending champion Tigers are projected to dominate with the addition of marquee slugger Prince Fielder to a formidable lineup and a deep starting rotation. "You try to give yourself the best chance of winning with the current roster," Williams said. "(But you) hedge your bet and add a piece or two for the future as well. That's why you saw us get all the pitching with the moves." Many wonder if keeping much of the core merely will postpone the inevitable — a full-blown rebuilding project that could turn away more fans disenchanted over the past three seasons. "(2006) was good, but we didn't make the playoffs," recalled veteran Paul Konerko, who Williams kept in the loop about the Sox's offseason plans. "It has been slow, giving back everything. And here we are, at square one, and the way to get it back is not easy, it's not fun. "You do it piece by piece, grinding and doing all the little things to build back up to that team again. That's the truth. There's no quick answer to it. "… You can't show up during the first spring or the first homestand and have a good homestand and say, 'We're back.'"

 

A slow start would …

 

If the Sox embark on their fourth consecutive sluggish start, it could accelerate the exits of Gavin Floyd and Matt Thornton to teams seeking a starting pitcher and a late-inning left-handed reliever. Their departures would accelerate what Williams has managed to avoid for 12 winters — complete rebuilding. "I feel bad for (Chairman) Jerry Reinsdorf because he has been extremely loyal to his people," the scout said. Another scout wondered about the leadership of Williams and first-year manager Robin Ventura during what appears destined to be a transition period. "Their pitching coach (Don Cooper) is one of the best in the game, but when will he get someone who isn't a project?" he said. Home attendance has declined steadily each year since 2007 despite large commitments that included the acquisition of Jake Peavy and the waiver claim of Alex Rios midway through the 2009 season, a July 30 trade for Edwin Jackson in 2010 and the 2011 "All-In" slogan that was supported with the free-agent acquisitions of Adam Dunn, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman and the last-minute decisions to re-sign Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski. The Sox nearly began the rebuilding process after 2010. However, they determined offers for their players wouldn't amount to a net plus. Thus there were no loud objections when the Sox embarked on their offseason shopping spree, but they delayed so long it cost them a shot at Victor Martinez, who signed a four-year contract with the Tigers that was $6 million less than the $56 million the Sox subsequently committed to Dunn through 2014. Adding Martinez would have given the Sox a clutch switch-hitter who can play three positions (designated hitter, catcher and first base), lessened the need for a left-handed power hitter like Dunn (and likely would have resulted in Pierzynski going to the Dodgers).

 

Mistakes have consequences

 

That was just one of several decisions that have backfired on the Sox and put them in this dilemma.

 

•Before the 2008 season, they dealt future All-Star left-hander Gio Gonzalez as part of a trade to land outfielder Nick Swisher, who rebounded quickly with the Yankees after a miserable season with the Sox.

 

•In an 11-day span in 2009, the Sox traded for Peavy and picked up Rios on a waiver claim. Although left-hander Clayton Richard has been the only serviceable piece of the four players dealt to the Padres for Peavy, the one-time ace, now 30, has pitched in only 40 games in 21/2 seasons because of injuries. A return to his 2007 Cy Young form is highly doubtful.

 

Rios, 31, hopes to achieve his second comeback season. In between hitting .199 in 41 games with the Sox in 2009 and .227 in 2011, he batted .284 in 2010 with 21 home runs and 88 RBIs. (Those shortcomings have magnified the fact the Sox will pay Peavy, Rios and Dunn a combined $43 million in 2012, and Rios and Dunn are under contract through 2014 at a combined cost of $81 million.)

 

•In 2010, the Sox's plan to use a rotating designated hitter gave then-manager Ozzie Guillen more versatility. But Mark Kotsay, who received most of the at-bats after Jim Thome was let go, produced only 31 RBIs in 327 at-bats. That season the Sox got only 186 RBIs from their left-handed hitters. (With Dunn last year, they had only 182 RBIs).

 

Several sources say the trading-deadline acquisition of Jackson from the Diamondbacks was expected to entice the Nationals to part with Dunn. That didn't work out and although Jackson was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts in the final two months of 2010, the deal cost the Sox pitchers Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg. Hudson, 24, is 23-13 since joining the Diamondbacks, and Baseball America ranks the left-handed Holmberg, 20, sixth among their top prospects. The trade of Hudson represented the Sox's urgent need to win now at the expense of their farm system. The Sox's 2008 draft class includes major leaguers Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel and Hudson — all of whom reached the majors. But Beckham has struggled since an impressive 2009 rookie season, and the Sox are gambling that 2010 top pick Chris Sale will make a smooth transition to the rotation at the major league level after advancing from Florida Gulf Coast University to the majors in less than two months. "They rush people and wonder why they struggle?" the scout said.

 

Replenishing system

 

Recently, the Sox have acquired more young talent to prevent being forced to advance prospects before they are ready. The additions of Nestor Molina (from the Blue Jays) and Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez (from the Padres for Quentin) provide much-welcomed competition at the upper levels of the minors with the strong possibility that all three could reach the majors by 2013. The trade of Quentin paved the way for Dayan Viciedo, 22, to take over in right field. The Sox also added left-handers Donald Veal, Jose Quintana and Hernandez to provide long-term depth in the event Thornton is dealt. According to Baseball America, the Sox spent the least of any team in the 2011 amateur draft, and during the past five drafts. But the new collective bargaining agreement that places spending limits on teams (with penalties for exceeding thresholds) can't hurt the Sox, who have the 13th overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft and the 48th overall as compensation for Buehrle's signing with the Marlins. The veteran scout applauded the Sox's efforts in the international market, where they signed 17-year-old Venezuelan pitcher Luis Martinez for $250,000, and they have a presence with Cuban talent after landing shortstop Alexei Ramirez and Viciedo. "It takes a long time to develop," the scout said. "Sometimes you have to stay in the free agent business. Tough decisions have to be made. "

 

Downward spiral

 

That has been the case for awhile as the Sox have lost the faith of their fans. The Sox were tied for first place after Buehrle's perfect game July 23, 2009 — shortly before adding Peavy (who was recovering from an ankle injury) and Rios. But they lost six of their next seven and 38 of their final 67 to finish seven games out of first place. Thanks to an 11-game winning streak, they overcame a 91/2-game deficit and led the AL Central by 31/2 games on July 20, 2010. But they lost eight games during a 10-game stretch to fall five games out and they never recovered. And last season, they were never in first place after April 7 and moved no closer than 31/2 games out of first after Aug. 17, when they were 61-61. The seasonlong slumps of Dunn, who had hit at least 38 home runs each season since 2004 before hitting only 11 in 2011 (and setting a franchise record with 177 strikeouts), and Rios (.227) mirrored the Sox's malaise and Williams' subsequent admission to peek at the future.

 

Immediate future

 

As for this season, veterans like Pierzynski and Peavy still possess a thirst for winning in what could be their final year in a Sox uniform. Pierzynski, 35, fretted over his future and struggled before earning trade veto rights in June 2010, then relaxed and finished with a .270 batting average. He could see his streak of 10 consecutive seasons of having caught at least 1,000 innings end this season as Ventura plans to rest him more often and play the much-younger Tyler Flowers. Pierzynski believes the agenda for the Sox should be singular, regardless of the uncertain future of the roster. "Every person needs to concentrate on themselves," he said. "Sometimes we got caught in this and that and what this person is saying, what's going on with this person instead of just saying, 'I have a job to do, and I'm going to do my job.' "That's not a knock on anybody. I don't want that as 'Hey, it was this guy's fault 'that guy's fault.' It was the fault of everyone who collectively has been here. "Just get back to doing your job. I worry about my job. Everyone worries about doing the best they can that day every day and to make the team better and do the job. And if you do that, you should be OK."

 

Key to turnaround

 

Perhaps no player represents the Sox's hopes for a turnaround more than left-hander John Danks, who won their last playoff game over the Rays in Game 3 of the 2008 American League Division Series — six days after beating the Twins 1-0 in the famous "Blackout" game that decided the division champion. After starting 2011 with an 0-8 record and 5.25 ERA in his first 11 starts, and subsequently being shopped by Williams, Danks, 26, was rewarded with a five-year, $65 million contract in the hope he can regain his ascent to a top-of-the-rotation starter. "If we get guys to play consistent over the course of a season, we should be just fine," Danks said. "As much of a cliche as it is, I think we can compete with anybody. "From a team and personal standpoint, it was a long year. It was tough. You just try to forget about it and get back." For his part, Pierzynski still yearns to be on a team in the spotlight. "Expectations are good," Pierzynski said. "That means you have a good team. When they don't work out, people say it was this or that. Who knows? … It just didn't work out.

 

"And this year is a new year and hopefully things can turn around."

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...2620,full.story

[Marty34]

Regarding what that scout said, if the Sox are right about Sale and Molina being top-of the-rotation starters and Viciedo being an impact bat the heavy lifting of the rebuilding might just be over.

[Balta1701]

Regarding what that scout said, if the Sox are right about Sale and Molina being top-of the-rotation starters and Viciedo being an impact bat the heavy lifting of the rebuilding might just be over.

"They rush people and wonder why they struggle?"

[Marty34]

Who have they rushed?

[Balta1701]

Who have they rushed?

Sale, Stewart, Beckham, Morel to some extent, Reed, Hudson. You continue to insist that they need to rush Molina when he ought to be at least 1.5 years away from his big league debut if everything goes well.

[Marty34]

Sale, Stewart, Beckham, Morel to some extent, Reed, Hudson. You continue to insist that they need to rush Molina when he ought to be at least 1.5 years away from his big league debut if everything goes well.

 

You can't prove to me any of these guys were rushed.

[daggins]

It is remarkably hard to factually prove that someone was rushed but I would say Beckham's performance the last couple years probably indicates he was rushed.

[DirtySox]

Regarding what that scout said, if the Sox are right about Sale and Molina being top-of the-rotation starters and Viciedo being an impact bat the heavy lifting of the rebuilding might just be over.

 

If only it was that easy.

Edited February 18, 2012 by DirtySox

[Marty34]

Anyone who says they know the optimal amount of time a player needs in the minors is lying.

[daa84]

It is remarkably hard to factually prove that someone was rushed but I would say Beckham's performance the last couple years probably indicates he was rushed.

ya for sure. determining if a guy was rushed is more opinion than it is something fact based. Clearly KW and the sox staff didnt feel like they were rushing these guys. On the other hand this scout and some fans feel like guys were rushed. Lots of other organizations give their guys alot more time than we did with guys like beckham and sale for certain.

 

Early on in KW's career we were able to target big league players with our minor league system, and it was ok because our system was good enough to net us impact guys. As of late the only guys we have been able to land have been overpriced contracts other teams have looked to get off their books. Add in the fact that we have made colossal mistakes with guys like swisher (twice), dunn, rios, and have failed to add any depth whatsoever in the minors....leaves us in a bad spot heading forward

[daa84]

Anyone who says they know the optimal amount of time a player needs in the minors is lying.

exactly, which is why hes not wrong for saying they were rushed, and you aren't wrong for saying they weren't. Its impossible to ever tell what would have happened if a player had been pushed through a system quicker, or slower......so its just a differing opinion.

[southsider2k5]

Anyone who says they know the optimal amount of time a player needs in the minors is lying.

 

Irony.

[Balta1701]

exactly, which is why hes not wrong for saying they were rushed, and you aren't wrong for saying they weren't. Its impossible to ever tell what would have happened if a player had been pushed through a system quicker, or slower......so its just a differing opinion.

But there is one thing you can say...if you don't give guys enough time in the minors...it might not hurt their careers overall...but the biggest impact will be that it weakens them in their first year or two while they develop in the bigs. That might, of course, be entirely tolerable if you've got a team that you're trying to bring up together or you're basically ruling out competing for a year (the Sox in 07 or right now), or if you have a loaded team elsewhere...but it's going to hurt you if you're trying to bring guys up quick, put them in the lineup, and then need key contributions from them.

 

And you absolutely cannot put yourself in a position of needing key contributions from a position and then benching the person you need to develop long term because they're not performing (or because the manager has confusing grudges/plays favorites)...which is exactly what the Sox have been doing. Repeatedly.

[Marty34]

But there is one thing you can say...if you don't give guys enough time in the minors...it might not hurt their careers overall...but the biggest impact will be that it weakens them in their first year or two while they develop in the bigs.

 

This is scout speak, something that might be true, but is far from a certainty.

[Marty34]

And you absolutely cannot put yourself in a position of needing key contributions from a position and then benching the person you need to develop long term because they're not performing (or because the manager has confusing grudges/plays favorites)...which is exactly what the Sox have been doing. Repeatedly.

 

. . . Or the farm system being in disarray in part because the GM's buddy was purposely signing prospects who had no chance at becoming major league players in order to embezzle money.

[Balta1701]

This is scout speak, something that might be true, but is far from a certainty.

I didn't say it was a certainty for every player.

 

But it is absolutely true on average. You push every player upwards too quickly, and on average they are going to take more time to develop at the bigs.

 

You leave every player stuck at AAA too long, they get a little bit annoyed, your big league team gets hurt, but then they wind up doing what every big name the Rays bring up seems to do.

[Balta1701]

. . . Or the farm system being in disarray in part because the GM's buddy was purposely signing prospects who had no chance at becoming major league players in order to embezzle money.

What does this have to do with the topic at hand other than "I want to rip on Kenny Williams"? This has nothing to do with rushing players.

[Marty34]

What does this have to do with the topic at hand other than "I want to rip on Kenny Williams"? This has nothing to do with rushing players.

 

Your outrage at Dave Wilder should be 100x that of your outrage at Guillen for the state of White Sox player development.

[Balta1701]

Your outrage at Dave Wilder should be 100x that of your outrage at Guillen for the state of White Sox player development.

Why? Even franchises doing spectacularly seem like they pull off what, 1 player who comes up the full way through the system from a central american country every few years? OTOH, The Sox philosophy of slamming guys up to the major leagues and then putting them on the bench for 1/3 of the season has happened over and over and over.

 

Edit: Oh, and I believe Wilder went to prison for his part.

[Marty34]

Why? Even franchises doing spectacularly seem like they pull off what, 1 player who comes up the full way through the system from a central american country every few years? OTOH, The Sox philosophy of slamming guys up to the major leagues and then putting them on the bench for 1/3 of the season has happened over and over and over.

 

That you are willing to defend the Dave Wilder era even to this degree says a lot.

[southsider2k5]

Your outrage at Dave Wilder should be 100x that of your outrage at Guillen for the state of White Sox player development.

 

Unless Dave Wilder f***ed up Rios, Dunn, and Peavy I disagree.

[elrockinMT]

The boys on MLB.TV think the Sox are at the bottom of the Central and fighting it out with the Twins. They also said the Sox did litle or nothing to help themselves and the trade of Satos was really hard to figure out

[elrockinMT]

Unless Dave Wilder f***ed up Rios, Dunn, and Peavy I disagree.

 

 

I agree with this post. Those three cost a ton on money and haven't produced. Interesting to see if they come through this year because if they struggle we will be in the cellar IMO

Edited February 19, 2012 by elrockinMT

[Marty34]

Unless Dave Wilder f***ed up Rios, Dunn, and Peavy I disagree.

 

I would prefer it if you stopped picking on me.

[caulfield12]

Very fair and balanced article.

 

One thing I question is how realistically the Sox were actually looking at bringing in Victor Martinez to be their full-time catcher.

 

If you want to argue they were ready to give the full-time job to Flowers in 2011 and make Victor the DH, more power to you.

 

It was one of those moves (like Thome to Twins, Kotsay/Jones as DH) that had a "double effect" on the AL Central, and worked against us. It's pretty doubtful we would have won last year had the Tigers signed Dunn and the Sox ended up with Victor Martinez, but that argument can be credibly put forth.

 

We've also had a number of players who weren't rushed (Rowand, Crede, Borchard, Fields, Brian Anderson...now Viciedo) but who had a tremendous amount of pressure put on them to perform as soon as they hit the everyday line-up. How much you can blame that on the Sox "win now" environment, it's hard to say. Look at the examples of Kip Wells or now Hudson, was it simply they weren't prepared to succeed in Chicago but they could perform much better in a smaller market, away from the media glare? Most argue dealing Hudson after only 3 starts was foolhardy, and including Holmberg, even more so.

 

Then with Beckham (and Dayan), you have to look at all their position changes and what effect it had on their development, because of gaps in our major league roster and AA/AAA depth which forced them to be moved all over the diamond in consecutive years. That goes on KW and the scouts 100%.

 

As far Chris Sale, clearly he was ready to be a big league reliever 2 seasons ago...the main question is whether he's been given enough time/coaching/development to make it as a starter, and how much the "wasted" 2011 season will stunt his eventual outcomes as a starter down the line. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

As for anyone caring about Jason Frason being a "Chicago native" or going to a game because of his overpaid presence in the bullpen, that's laughable.

Edited February 19, 2012 by caulfield12