Chisoxfn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2012 -> 06:25 AM) Care to say why? We still have a rotation with a few relatively proven quality arms. Floyd/Danks are quality starting pitchers, no bones about that and I don't think anyone would argue that. Peavy is a huge x-factor and I could make a lot of cases for why he should be closer to what he was with the Padres than what he was with the Sox, however, I could also make a lot of arguments for why he wouldn't be. However, from a pure stuff perspective, you could see at times last year that he had the stuff it took and it would be hard not to expect him (pending another injury, which you could easily predict). Humber was solid and an inning eater and when you look at his actual performance, I think you feel comfortable thinking he can be a league average starter. Add in Sale as the #5, who is a legit talent, and well, good things could happen. Our rotation definitely has some question-marks, but 4 of the starters have had at least one above average major league season. It could very well turn out to be a better than league average rotation. The bullpen also has some question-marks but there are some above average relievers there (Crain/Thornton). Add in guys like Reed who have some upside and the pen isn't horrendous. The lineup is bad, however, if Rios/Dunn produce, than all of a sudden your 3/4/5 (with Konerko producing) is doable and it makes things easier. Again, I'm hard pressed to say we have a good offense (in almost any scenario) but the rotation could be good and the offense could be better than you expect (with those two, who again, have a history of having success). Viciedo is a wild-card but he is a major league talent. Morel/Beckham are bigger wild cards since they still have a ton to prove and don't have any extended historic success (outside of Beck's rookie season). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 So what would you say the Odds are of the Sox taking the division? I'm closer to 1/100 than to 1/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyuen Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2012 -> 03:03 PM) I struggle to figure out how a player who "just isn't very good" can do what he did out of the gates in 2009. It is odd but it certainly has happened many times before to guys who had better years than he did in 09. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max power Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I am giving this team a chance. I wouldn't call it doom and gloom. I am actually looking forward to this year. 100:1 is bad, but it isn't that bad to me. A lot of things have to go right for the sox to take the division. Too many things for it to be as probable as 8 to 1, in my estimation. To me, most of Dunn, rios, beckham, morel, de aza and viciedo need to hit like above average major league players for this team to win 90 or more games. Given how far some were from that last year, and how inexperienced some of the others are, I don't see it happening. If I thought about it more I might have said something more like 30:1. A 3% chance isn't that much different than a 1% chance. Anyway, I hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunofgold Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Too many uncertainties on this team. That is the problem. Who on this roster can we really depend on having at least a good season in 2012? Probably just Konerko. Humber and Lillibridge were good in 2011 but we don't even know if they are going to have good season in 2012. On the other hand, this really is a weak division overall. The Tigers should win this division..at least on paper. However, there is no way to say that one of the other four remaining teams is the 2nd best..on paper again. Twins might the worst though with the loss of Cuddyer and Kubel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (iamshack @ Feb 20, 2012 -> 10:20 AM) I dunno...for whatever reason, it's always difficult to put back-to-back seasons together in baseball unless you have dominant pitching. The Tigers obviously have Verlander, and Fister and Scherzer have the potential to be above-average 2nd and 3rd's, but I'm not shaking in my boots just yet. I am one of the more optimistic fans, but I think the bounce back potential for our team, combined with some Robin magic might put us in a spot most don't expect. As I posted earlier, the odds aren't great, but it's not 100:1 or any of that nonsense. I think if the season was played out 100 times, the Sox might win the division in 2 or 3 of them, tops. Being honest, I see the Sox as something like 15-20 games worse than the Tigers. Sure things could happen to change that number, such as Verlander's arm falling off, or Cabrera taking Prince out for a season of drinking, but in general, I have zero expectations for this team this year. There are scenarios where the Sox could win, but I don't find them very likely at all. Even in the scenarios where the Tigers fall backwards hard, I'm not sure if the Sox have enough to catch them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 20, 2012 -> 03:03 PM) I struggle to figure out how a player who "just isn't very good" can do what he did out of the gates in 2009. He wouldn't be the first or last player to have a hot start like that, then never produce near that level again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 10:04 AM) I think if the season was played out 100 times, the Sox might win the division in 2 or 3 of them, tops. Being honest, I see the Sox as something like 15-20 games worse than the Tigers. Sure things could happen to change that number, such as Verlander's arm falling off, or Cabrera taking Prince out for a season of drinking, but in general, I have zero expectations for this team this year. There are scenarios where the Sox could win, but I don't find them very likely at all. Even in the scenarios where the Tigers fall backwards hard, I'm not sure if the Sox have enough to catch them. I'm in a similar mood regarding this team to 2k5. My only difference is that I don't think it's the "Tigers falling back" that would put the Sox in contention, I think it's the Sox playing well above their heads. If the Tigers fall back hard, I think it most likely becomes a tight race with 3, maybe 4 teams, because i could see the Royals and Indians putting together better than .500 seasons as well. For the Sox to really compete, they need everything to work, and they need everyone to have enough success to where they can push >90 wins. That's a huge level of improvement from everyone, since my brain is putting them in the range of the 78 or so they were near last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyuen Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 10:47 AM) I'm in a similar mood regarding this team to 2k5. My only difference is that I don't think it's the "Tigers falling back" that would put the Sox in contention, I think it's the Sox playing well above their heads. If the Tigers fall back hard, I think it most likely becomes a tight race with 3, maybe 4 teams, because i could see the Royals and Indians putting together better than .500 seasons as well. For the Sox to really compete, they need everything to work, and they need everyone to have enough success to where they can push >90 wins. That's a huge level of improvement from everyone, since my brain is putting them in the range of the 78 or so they were near last year. Same here. I put the odds at around 25-1, maybe worse. The offense is going to be bad. Not only are there a number of question marks as everyone has mentioned, but also there is no real upside from these guys. Only one player, Dayan, has legitimate upside above his projections. Whoever is in LF is going to be below average for that spot. Dunn is finished. Morel's ceiling is league average. I think only SS 1b and possibly RF will be above average. The pitching has nice depth but lacks the elite quality to overcome the bad offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyDo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (docsox24 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 05:17 PM) Same here. I put the odds at around 25-1, maybe worse. The offense is going to be bad. Not only are there a number of question marks as everyone has mentioned, but also there is no real upside from these guys. Only one player, Dayan, has legitimate upside above his projections. Whoever is in LF is going to be below average for that spot. Dunn is finished. Morel's ceiling is league average. I think only SS 1b and possibly RF will be above average. The pitching has nice depth but lacks the elite quality to overcome the bad offense. As a quick addendum, I think Beckham still falls into the category of "higher upside than projections". The likelihood that he reaches his potential is declining with each poor season, but I still think the highest possible level of his achievement remains intact. I also think Morel's upside might be a tick above league average. Also, there's no way Dunn's upside is below expectations this year. Soooo...maybe I disagree a little more than I thought I did when I started typing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ginger Kid Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 07:04 AM) I think if the season was played out 100 times, the Sox might win the division in 2 or 3 of them, tops. Being honest, I see the Sox as something like 15-20 games worse than the Tigers. Sure things could happen to change that number, such as Verlander's arm falling off, or Cabrera taking Prince out for a season of drinking, but in general, I have zero expectations for this team this year. There are scenarios where the Sox could win, but I don't find them very likely at all. Even in the scenarios where the Tigers fall backwards hard, I'm not sure if the Sox have enough to catch them. He's pitched a helluva lot of innings the last 3 years. Most in '09, 3rd in '10 and most again last year. Then again, he only got better! Fister threw 200 for the first time last year, though. Verducci rule? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 If DeAza's projected to be below average for LF, how can we know that for certain, with how well he played in 2011 for us? It's easy to say Dunn/Beckham/Rios will suck again, but why can't DeAza continue to excel? The theory that he will be worn down with everyday play and exposed when facing both LH and RH pitching? Or simply because he's never had a full, healthy season of everyday starts in the majors before now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 04:04 PM) I think if the season was played out 100 times, the Sox might win the division in 2 or 3 of them, tops. Being honest, I see the Sox as something like 15-20 games worse than the Tigers. Sure things could happen to change that number, such as Verlander's arm falling off, or Cabrera taking Prince out for a season of drinking, but in general, I have zero expectations for this team this year. There are scenarios where the Sox could win, but I don't find them very likely at all. Even in the scenarios where the Tigers fall backwards hard, I'm not sure if the Sox have enough to catch them. Exactly. Detroit is so much better than Chicago on paper it's amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 08:41 PM) Exactly. Detroit is so much better than Chicago on paper it's amazing. Were you saying that last year coming into the season? You really think that infield defense with Cabrera at 3B and Fielder at 1B is going to lead to a juggernaut? That Valverde will go through another season without a single blown save. That Fielder will have a seamless transition to the AL and Comerica Park? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 04:20 AM) Were you saying that last year coming into the season? You really think that infield defense with Cabrera at 3B and Fielder at 1B is going to lead to a juggernaut? That Valverde will go through another season without a single blown save. That Fielder will have a seamless transition to the AL and Comerica Park? I love the way Sox fans have spun this Fielder acquisition. Like Detroit is going to regret it. Detroit is going to win this division as easily as it did last year IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max power Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 12:12 AM) I love the way Sox fans have spun this Fielder acquisition. Like Detroit is going to regret it. Detroit is going to win this division as easily as it did last year IMO. Detriot is definitely going to regret it. It might not be as soon as this year, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Hurtin Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I think the Tigers run away with the division, 10+ games by the time it's said and done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 12:12 AM) I love the way Sox fans have spun this Fielder acquisition. Like Detroit is going to regret it. Detroit is going to win this division as easily as it did last year IMO. If they don't win a WS in the next 2-3 years, they will regret it towards the end of his 9-year contract when he is fat, slow, & bad. No one has said it's a bad move for 2012/2013/2014, it's the full length of the contract that is questionable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 07:30 AM) If they don't win a WS in the next 2-3 years, they will regret it towards the end of his 9-year contract when he is fat, slow, & bad. No one has said it's a bad move for 2012/2013/2014, it's the full length of the contract that is questionable. No doubt about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 10:20 PM) Were you saying that last year coming into the season? You really think that infield defense with Cabrera at 3B and Fielder at 1B is going to lead to a juggernaut? That Valverde will go through another season without a single blown save. That Fielder will have a seamless transition to the AL and Comerica Park? Even with all of that factored in, I still think the Tigers are that much better than the Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 08:33 AM) Even with all of that factored in, I still think the Tigers are that much better than the Sox. 2k5 and I agree here. The Tigers won 95 games last year. They then added Fielder. There's definitely some downside room for them. Verlander won't repeat last season, so subtract 2 wins there, maybe subtract another win for Valverde not being magic, probably subtract a win or two from either Avila or Peralta not having incredible seasons...but that's still starting with 88 wins if a lot goes wrong. Then, add in a full season from Fister, maybe some improvement from Porcello, maybe some improvement/consistency from Scherzer, Turner in the 5 spot, and on paper they've shored up the rotation which was a weak spot last year, then add in Dotel to the bullpen. And then you still have room for kids like Austin Jackson and whoever they have in LF to grow a little more and improve still. If no one from their big 3 gets hurt or falls apart, that's a 90+ win ballclub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyuen Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2012 -> 07:14 PM) If DeAza's projected to be below average for LF, how can we know that for certain, with how well he played in 2011 for us? It's easy to say Dunn/Beckham/Rios will suck again, but why can't DeAza continue to excel? The theory that he will be worn down with everyday play and exposed when facing both LH and RH pitching? Or simply because he's never had a full, healthy season of everyday starts in the majors before now? We don't know for certain. Just based on the fact that he is 28 and never had a full time job leads me to believe that he isn't all that great. Plus last year was limited sample size. I am actually hoping that Rios is in LF and DeAza in CF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (docsox24 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 01:12 PM) We don't know for certain. Just based on the fact that he is 28 and never had a full time job leads me to believe that he isn't all that great. Plus last year was limited sample size. I am actually hoping that Rios is in LF and DeAza in CF. You do know his history right? He had a full time job out of spring training with the Marlins at age 23, which would have been really good for most prospects. He then completely destroyed one of his legs, to the point where he was out of baseball entirely for 1 and 2/3 seasons, including all of 2008. By 2009, he was back in the Marlins minor league system and played well, put up an .876 OPS as a 25 year old, but he'd been passed by other guys in their system and there was no room for him. The Sox grabbed him after that year when he was available as a free agent, then have kept him in their minors for 2 years, trapped behind Juan Pierre and Alex Rios. .806 OPS his first year in Charlotte, .876 last year. Pretty much this is a talented prospect who got seriously hurt and has done nothing but hit in the minors since coming back from that injury but has always been blocked. There's no guarantee obviously, but there's a whole lot of extenuating circumstances going in to why he's just now getting a chance at age 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 12:17 PM) You do know his history right? He had a full time job out of spring training with the Marlins at age 23, which would have been really good for most prospects. He then completely destroyed one of his legs, to the point where he was out of baseball entirely for 1 and 2/3 seasons, including all of 2008. By 2009, he was back in the Marlins minor league system and played well, put up an .876 OPS as a 25 year old, but he'd been passed by other guys in their system and there was no room for him. The Sox grabbed him after that year when he was available as a free agent, then have kept him in their minors for 2 years, trapped behind Juan Pierre and Alex Rios. .806 OPS his first year in Charlotte, .876 last year. Pretty much this is a talented prospect who got seriously hurt and has done nothing but hit in the minors since coming back from that injury but has always been blocked. There's no guarantee obviously, but there's a whole lot of extenuating circumstances going in to why he's just now getting a chance at age 28. He is also a guy that managed to get all of the way to the Sox in the AL on waivers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2012 -> 12:20 PM) He is also a guy that managed to get all of the way to the Sox in the AL on waivers. What part of "Seriously destroyed his leg" didn't register? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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